Flood triggering in Switzerland: the role of daily to monthly preceding precipitation

Determining the role of different precipitation periods for peak discharge generation is crucial for both projecting future changes in flood probability and for short- and medium-range flood forecasting. In this study, catchment-averaged daily precipitation time series are analyzed prior to annual peak discharge events (floods) in Switzerland. The high number of floods considered – more than 4000 events from 101 catchments have been analyzed – allows to derive significant information about the role of antecedent precipitation for peak discharge generation. Based on the analysis of precipitation times series, a new separation of flood-related precipitation periods is proposed: (i) the period 0 to 1 day before flood days, when the maximum flood-triggering precipitation rates are generally observed, (ii) the period 2 to 3 days before flood days, when longer-lasting synoptic situations generate "significantly higher than normal" precipitation amounts, and (iii) the period from 4 days to 1 month before flood days when previous wet episodes may have already preconditioned the catchment. The novelty of this study lies in the separation of antecedent precipitation into the precursor antecedent precipitation (4 days before floods or earlier, called PRE-AP) and the short range precipitation (0 to 3 days before floods, a period when precipitation is often driven by one persistent weather situation like e.g., a stationary low-pressure system). A precise separation of "antecedent" and "peak-triggering" precipitation is not attempted. Instead, the strict definition of antecedent precipitation periods permits a direct comparison of all catchments. The precipitation accumulating 0 to 3 days before an event is the most relevant for floods in Switzerland. PRE-AP precipitation has only a weak and region-specific influence on flood probability. Floods were significantly more frequent after wet PRE-AP periods only in the Jura Mountains, in the western and eastern Swiss plateau, and at the outlet of large lakes. As a general rule, wet PRE-AP periods enhance the flood probability in catchments with gentle topography, high infiltration rates, and large storage capacity (karstic cavities, deep soils, large reservoirs). In contrast, floods were significantly less frequent after wet PRE-AP periods in glacial catchments because of reduced melt. For the majority of catchments however, no significant correlation between precipitation amounts and flood occurrences is found when the last 3 days before floods are omitted in the precipitation amounts. Moreover, the PRE-AP was not higher for extreme floods than for annual floods with a high frequency and was very close to climatology for all floods. The fact that floods are not significantly more frequent nor more intense after wet PRE-AP is a clear indicator of a short discharge memory of Pre-Alpine, Alpine and South Alpine Swiss catchments. Our study poses the question whether the impact of long-term precursory precipitation for floods in such catchments is not overestimated in the general perception. The results suggest that the consideration of a 3–4 days precipitation period should be sufficient to represent (understand, reconstruct, model, project) Swiss Alpine floods.

Saddlepoint Approximations to the Probability of Ruin in Finite Time for the Compound Poisson Risk Process Perturbed by Diffusion

A large deviations type approximation to the probability of ruin within a finite time for the compound Poisson risk process perturbed by diffusion is derived. This approximation is based on the saddlepoint method and generalizes the approximation for the non-perturbed risk process by Barndorff-Nielsen and Schmidli (Scand Actuar J 1995(2):169–186, 1995). An importance sampling approximation to this probability of ruin is also provided. Numerical illustrations assess the accuracy of the saddlepoint approximation using importance sampling as a benchmark. The relative deviations between saddlepoint approximation and importance sampling are very small, even for extremely small probabilities of ruin. The saddlepoint approximation is however substantially faster to compute.

Outcomes in Advanced Head and Neck Cancer Treated with Up-front Neck Dissection prior to (Chemo)Radiotherapy.

OBJECTIVE Our aim was to compare outcomes with and without up-front neck dissection prior to (chemo)radiotherapy in head and neck squamous cell carcinoma. STUDY DESIGN Case series with chart review. SETTING Tertiary referral center. SUBJECTS AND METHODS Outcomes of oropharyngeal, laryngeal, and hypopharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma cases with neck lymph node metastases treated from January 2001 to March 2012 were analyzed. Due to imbalances in baseline characteristics between groups treated with (n = 129) and without (n = 95) up-front neck dissection, propensity score matching was performed. RESULTS Median follow-up was 48 months (range, 12-148). With up-front neck dissection, the hazard ratio for the primary end point, disease-free survival, was 0.63 (95% confidence interval: 0.37-1.06, P = .08). Up-front neck dissection reduced acute grade ≥3 toxicity significantly when xerostomia was excluded (odds ratio: 0.40, 95% confidence interval: 0.20-0.82, P = .012). CONCLUSION Our results indicate less acute treatment toxicity without any significant difference in terms of oncologic outcome with up-front neck dissection prior to (chemo)radiotherapy as compared with (chemo)radiotherapy alone. Well-designed randomized trials are required to verify this result and further investigate the impact of this strategy on late toxicity and oncologic outcome.

Lavage prior to vertebral augmentation reduces the risk for cement leakage

PURPOSE This study aimed at assessing the cement leakage rate and the filling pattern in patients treated with vertebroplasty, kyphoplasty and stentoplasty with and without a newly developed lavage technique. STUDY DESIGN Retrospective clinical case-control study. METHODS A newly developed bipedicular lavage technique prior to cement application was applied in 64 patients (45.1 %) with 116 vertebrae, ("lavage" group). A conventional bipedicular cement injection technique was used in 78 patients (54.9 %) with 99 levels ("controls"). The outcome measures were filling patterns and leakage rates. RESULTS The overall leakage rate (venous, cortical defect, intradiscal) was 37.9 % in the lavage and 83.8 % in the control group (p < 0.001). Venous leakage (lavage 12.9 % vs. controls 31.3 %; p = 0.001) and cortical defect leakage (lavage 17.2 % vs. controls 63.3 %; p < 0.001) were significantly lower in the lavage group compared to "controls," whereas intradiscal leakages were similar in both groups (lavage 12.1 % vs. controls 15.2 %; p = 0.51). For venous leakage multivariate logistic regression analysis showed lavage to be the only independent predictor. Lavage was associated with 0.33-times (95 % CI 0.16-0.65; p = 0.001) lower likelihood for leakage in compared to controls. CONCLUSIONS Vertebral body lavage prior to cement augmentation is a safe technique to reduce cement leakage in a clinical setting and has the potential to prevent pulmonary fat embolism. Moreover, a better filling pattern can be achieved.

The influence of students' prior clinical skills and context characteristics on mini-CEX scores in clerkships - a multilevel analysis.

BACKGROUND In contrast to objective structured clinical examinations (OSCEs), mini-clinical evaluation exercises (mini-CEXs) take place at the clinical workplace. As both mini-CEXs and OSCEs assess clinical skills, but within different contexts, this study aims at analyzing to which degree students' mini-CEX scores can be predicted by their recent OSCE scores and/or context characteristics. METHODS Medical students participated in an end of Year 3 OSCE and in 11 mini-CEXs during 5 different clerkships of Year 4. The students' mean scores of 9 clinical skills OSCE stations and mean 'overall' and 'domain' mini-CEX scores, averaged over all mini-CEXs of each student were computed. Linear regression analyses including random effects were used to predict mini-CEX scores by OSCE performance and characteristics of clinics, trainers, students and assessments. RESULTS A total of 512 trainers in 45 clinics provided 1783 mini-CEX ratings for 165 students; OSCE results were available for 144 students (87 %). Most influential for the prediction of 'overall' mini-CEX scores was the trainers' clinical position with a regression coefficient of 0.55 (95 %-CI: 0.26-0.84; p < .001) for residents compared to heads of department. Highly complex tasks and assessments taking place in large clinics significantly enhanced 'overall' mini-CEX scores, too. In contrast, high OSCE performance did not significantly increase 'overall' mini-CEX scores. CONCLUSION In our study, Mini-CEX scores depended rather on context characteristics than on students' clinical skills as demonstrated in an OSCE. Ways are discussed which focus on either to enhance the scores' validity or to use narrative comments only.

Prior knowledge of the clinical picture does not introduce bias in the histopathologic diagnosis of melanocytic skin lesions

A common debate among dermatopathologists is that prior knowledge of the clinical picture of melanocytic skin neoplasms may introduce a potential bias in the histopathologic examination. Histologic slides from 99 melanocytic skin neoplasms were circulated among 10 clinical dermatologists, all of them formally trained and board-certified dermatopathologists: 5 dermatopathologists had clinical images available after a 'blind' examination (Group 1); the other 5 had clinical images available before microscopic examination (Group 2). Data from the two groups were compared regarding 'consensus' (a diagnosis in agreement by ≥4 dermatopathologists/group), chance-corrected interobserver agreement (Fleiss' k) and level of diagnostic confidence (LDC: a 1-5 arbitrary scale indicating 'increasing reliability' of any given diagnosis). Compared with Group 1 dermatopathologists, Group 2 achieved a lower number of consensus (84 vs. 90) but a higher k value (0.74 vs. 0.69) and a greater mean LDC value (4.57 vs. 4.32). The same consensus was achieved by the two groups in 81/99 cases. Spitzoid neoplasms were most frequently controversial for both groups. The histopathologic interpretation of melanocytic neoplasms seems to be not biased by the knowledge of the clinical picture before histopathologic examination.

Partial lateralization of the nasopalatine nerve at the incisive foramen for ridge augmentation in the anterior maxilla prior to placement of dental implants: a retrospective case series evaluating self-reported data and neurosensory testing

The objective of this study was to assess implant therapy after a staged guided bone regeneration procedure in the anterior maxilla by lateralization of the nasopalatine nerve and vessel bundle. Neurosensory function following augmentative procedures and implant placement, assessed using a standardized questionnaire and clinical examination, were the primary outcome variables measured. This retrospective study included patients with a bone defect in the anterior maxilla in need of horizontal and/or vertical ridge augmentation prior to dental implant placement. The surgical sites were allowed to heal for at least 6 months before placement of dental implants. All patients received fixed implant-supported restorations and entered into a tightly scheduled maintenance program. In addition to the maintenance program, patients were recalled for a clinical examination and to fill out a questionnaire to assess any changes in the neurosensory function of the nasopalatine nerve at least 6 months after function. Twenty patients were included in the study from February 2001 to December 2010. They received a total of 51 implants after augmentation of the alveolar crest and lateralization of the nasopalatine nerve. The follow-up examination for questionnaire and neurosensory assessment was scheduled after a mean period of 4.18 years of function. None of the patients examined reported any pain, they did not have less or an altered sensation, and they did not experience a "foreign body" feeling in the area of surgery. Overall, 6 patients out of 20 (30%) showed palatal sensibility alterations of the soft tissues in the region of the maxillary canines and incisors resulting in a risk for a neurosensory change of 0.45 mucosal teeth regions per patient after ridge augmentation with lateralization of the nasopalatine nerve. Regeneration of bone defects in the anterior maxilla by horizontal and/or vertical ridge augmentation and lateralization of the nasopalatine nerve prior to dental implant placement is a predictable surgical technique. Whether or not there were clinically measurable impairments of neurosensory function, the patients did not report them or were not bothered by them.

Extreme River Floods in Western Switzerland and the Lake of Constance Region in the Period Prior to Instrumental Measurements

The floods that occurred on the Aare and Rhine rivers in May 2015 and the mostly successful handling of this event in terms of flood protection measures are a good reminder of how important it is to comprehend the causes and processes involved in such natural hazards. While the needed data series of gauge measurements and peak discharge calculations reach back to the 19th century, historical records dating further back in time can provide additional and useful information to help understanding extreme flood events and to evaluate prevention measures such as river dams and corrections undertaken prior to instrumental measurements. In my PhD project I will use a wide range of historical sources to assess and quantify past extreme flood events. It is part of the SNF-funded project “Reconstruction of the Genesis, Process and Impact of Major Pre-instrumental Flood Events of Major Swiss Rivers Including a Peak Discharge Quantification” and will cover the research locations Fribourg (Saane R.), Burgdorf (Emme R.), Thun, Bern (both Aare R.), and the Lake of Constance at the locations Lindau, Constance and Rorschach. My main goals are to provide a long time series of quantitative data for extreme flood events, to discuss the occurring changes in these data, and to evaluate the impact of the aforementioned human influences on the drainage system. Extracting information given in account books from the towns of Basel and Solothurn may also enable me to assess the frequency and seasonality of less severe river floods. Finally, historical information will be used for remodeling the historical hydrological regime to homogenize the historical data series to modern day conditions and thus make it comparable to the data provided by instrumental measurements. The method I will apply for processing all information provided by historical sources such as chronicles, newspapers, institutional records, as well as flood marks, paintings and archeological evidence has been developed and successfully applied to the site of Basel by Wetter et al. (2011). They have also shown that data homogenization is possible by reconstructing previous stream flow conditions using historical river profiles and by carefully observing and re-constructing human changes of the river bed and its surroundings. Taken all information into account, peak discharges for past extreme flood events will be calculated with a one-dimensional hydrological model.

Focal Epilepsy: MR Imaging of Nonhemodynamic Field Effects by Using a Phase-cycled Stimulus-induced Rotary Saturation Approach with Spin-Lock Preparation.

Purpose To investigate whether nonhemodynamic resonant saturation effects can be detected in patients with focal epilepsy by using a phase-cycled stimulus-induced rotary saturation (PC-SIRS) approach with spin-lock (SL) preparation and whether they colocalize with the seizure onset zone and surface interictal epileptiform discharges (IED). Materials and Methods The study was approved by the local ethics committee, and all subjects gave written informed consent. Eight patients with focal epilepsy undergoing presurgical surface and intracranial electroencephalography (EEG) underwent magnetic resonance (MR) imaging at 3 T with a whole-brain PC-SIRS imaging sequence with alternating SL-on and SL-off and two-dimensional echo-planar readout. The power of the SL radiofrequency pulse was set to 120 Hz to sensitize the sequence to high gamma oscillations present in epileptogenic tissue. Phase cycling was applied to capture distributed current orientations. Voxel-wise subtraction of SL-off from SL-on images enabled the separation of T2* effects from rotary saturation effects. The topography of PC-SIRS effects was compared with the seizure onset zone at intracranial EEG and with surface IED-related potentials. Bayesian statistics were used to test whether prior PC-SIRS information could improve IED source reconstruction. Results Nonhemodynamic resonant saturation effects ipsilateral to the seizure onset zone were detected in six of eight patients (concordance rate, 0.75; 95% confidence interval: 0.40, 0.94) by means of the PC-SIRS technique. They were concordant with IED surface negativity in seven of eight patients (0.88; 95% confidence interval: 0.51, 1.00). Including PC-SIRS as prior information improved the evidence of the standard EEG source models compared with the use of uninformed reconstructions (exceedance probability, 0.77 vs 0.12; Wilcoxon test of model evidence, P < .05). Nonhemodynamic resonant saturation effects resolved in patients with favorable postsurgical outcomes, but persisted in patients with postsurgical seizure recurrence. Conclusion Nonhemodynamic resonant saturation effects are detectable during interictal periods with the PC-SIRS approach in patients with epilepsy. The method may be useful for MR imaging-based detection of neuronal currents in a clinical environment. (©) RSNA, 2016 Online supplemental material is available for this article.

Effects of exercise with oxygen prebreathe for decompression risk reduction

Astronauts performing extravehicular activities (EVA) are at risk for occupational hazards due to a hypobaric environment, in particular Decompression Sickness (DCS). DCS results from nitrogen gas bubble formation in body tissues and venous blood. Denitrogenation achieved through lengthy staged decompression protocols has been the mainstay of prevention of DCS in space. Due to the greater number and duration of EVAs scheduled for construction and maintenance of the International Space Station, more efficient alternatives to accomplish missions without compromising astronaut safety are desirable. ^ This multi-center, multi-phase study (NASA-Prebreathe Reduction Protocol study, or PRP) was designed to identify a shorter denitrogenation protocol that can be implemented before an EVA, based on the combination of adynamia and exercise enhanced oxygen prebreathe. Human volunteers recruited at three sites (Texas, North Carolina and Canada) underwent three different combinations (“PRP phases”) of intense and light exercise prior to decompression in an altitude chamber. The outcome variables were detection of venous gas embolism (VGE) by precordial Doppler ultrasound, and clinical manifestations of DCS. Independent variables included age, gender, body mass index, oxygen consumption peak, peak heart rate, and PRP phase. Data analysis was performed both by pooling results from all study sites, and by examining each site separately. ^ Ten percent of the subjects developed DCS and 20% showed evidence of high grade VGE. No cases of DCS occurred in one particular PRP phase with use of the combination of dual-cycle ergometry (10 minutes at 75% of VO2 peak) plus 24 minutes of light EVA exercise (p = 0.04). No significant effects were found for the remaining independent variables on the occurrence of DCS. High grade VGE showed a strong correlation with subsequent development of DCS (sensitivity, 88.2%; specificity, 87.2%). In the presence of high grade VGE, the relative risk for DCS ranged from 7.52 to 35.0. ^ In summary, a good safety level can be achieved with exercise-enhanced oxygen denitrogenation that can be generalized to the astronaut population. Exercise is beneficial in preventing DCS if a specific schedule is followed, with an individualized VO2 prescription that provides a safety level that can then be applied to space operations. Furthermore, VGE Doppler detection is a useful clinical tool for prediction of altitude DCS. Because of the small number of high grade VGE episodes, the identification of a high probability DCS situation based on the presence of high grade VGE seems justified in astronauts. ^