Seasonal changes in pasture quality and diet selection and their relationship with liveweight gain of steers grazing tropical grass and grass-legume pastures in northern Australia.

The variation in liveweight gain in grazing beef cattle as influenced by pasture type, season and year effects has important economic implications for mixed crop-livestock systems and the ability to better predict such variation would benefit beef producers by providing a guide for decision making. To identify key determinants of liveweight change of Brahman-cross steers grazing subtropical pastures, measurements of pasture quality and quantity, and diet quality in parallel with liveweight were made over two consecutive grazing seasons (48 and 46 weeks, respectively), on mixed Clitoria ternatea/grass, Stylosanthes seabrana/grass and grass swards (grass being a mixture of Bothriochloa insculpta cv. Bisset, Dichanthium sericeum and Panicum maximum var. trichoglume cv. Petrie). Steers grazing the legume-based pastures had the highest growth rate and gained between 64 and 142 kg more than those grazing the grass pastures in under 12 months. Using an exponential model, green leaf mass, green leaf %, adjusted green leaf % (adjusted for inedible woody legume stems), faecal near infrared reflectance spectroscopy predictions of diet crude protein and diet dry matter digestibility, accounted for 77, 74, 80, 63 and 60%, respectively, of the variation in daily weight gain when data were pooled across pasture types and grazing seasons. The standard error of the regressions indicated that 95% prediction intervals were large (+/- 0.42-0.64 kg/head.day) suggesting that derived regression relationships have limited practical application for accurately estimating growth rate. In this study, animal factors, especially compensatory growth effects, appeared to have a major influence on growth rate in relation to pasture and diet attributes. It was concluded that predictions of growth rate based only on pasture or diet attributes are unlikely to be accurate or reliable. Nevertheless, key pasture attributes such as green leaf mass and green leaf% provide a robust indication of what proportion of the potential growth rate of the grazing animals can be achieved.

Net radiation dynamics: performance of 20 daily net radiation models as related to model structure and intricacy in two climates.

We compared daily net radiation (Rn) estimates from 19 methods with the ASCE-EWRI Rn estimates in two climates: Clay Center, Nebraska (sub-humid) and Davis, California (semi-arid) for the calendar year. The performances of all 20 methods, including the ASCE-EWRI Rn method, were then evaluated against Rn data measured over a non-stressed maize canopy during two growing seasons in 2005 and 2006 at Clay Center. Methods differ in terms of inputs, structure, and equation intricacy. Most methods differ in estimating the cloudiness factor, emissivity (e), and calculating net longwave radiation (Rnl). All methods use albedo (a) of 0.23 for a reference grass/alfalfa surface. When comparing the performance of all 20 Rn methods with measured Rn, we hypothesized that the a values for grass/alfalfa and non-stressed maize canopy were similar enough to only cause minor differences in Rn and grass- and alfalfa-reference evapotranspiration (ETo and ETr) estimates. The measured seasonal average a for the maize canopy was 0.19 in both years. Using a = 0.19 instead of a = 0.23 resulted in 6% overestimation of Rn. Using a = 0.19 instead of a = 0.23 for ETo and ETr estimations, the 6% difference in Rn translated to only 4% and 3% differences in ETo and ETr, respectively, supporting the validity of our hypothesis. Most methods had good correlations with the ASCE-EWRI Rn (r2 > 0.95). The root mean square difference (RMSD) was less than 2 MJ m-2 d-1 between 12 methods and the ASCE-EWRI Rn at Clay Center and between 14 methods and the ASCE-EWRI Rn at Davis. The performance of some methods showed variations between the two climates. In general, r2 values were higher for the semi-arid climate than for the sub-humid climate. Methods that use dynamic e as a function of mean air temperature performed better in both climates than those that calculate e using actual vapor pressure. The ASCE-EWRI-estimated Rn values had one of the best agreements with the measured Rn (r2 = 0.93, RMSD = 1.44 MJ m-2 d-1), and estimates were within 7% of the measured Rn. The Rn estimates from six methods, including the ASCE-EWRI, were not significantly different from measured Rn. Most methods underestimated measured Rn by 6% to 23%. Some of the differences between measured and estimated Rn were attributed to the poor estimation of Rnl. We conducted sensitivity analyses to evaluate the effect of Rnl on Rn, ETo, and ETr. The Rnl effect on Rn was linear and strong, but its effect on ETo and ETr was subsidiary. Results suggest that the Rn data measured over green vegetation (e.g., irrigated maize canopy) can be an alternative Rn data source for ET estimations when measured Rn data over the reference surface are not available. In the absence of measured Rn, another alternative would be using one of the Rn models that we analyzed when all the input variables are not available to solve the ASCE-EWRI Rn equation. Our results can be used to provide practical information on which method to select based on data availability for reliable estimates of daily Rn in climates similar to Clay Center and Davis.

Harvest strategy evaluations and co-management for the Moreton Bay Trawl Fishery

Non-Technical Summary Seafood CRC Project 2009/774. Harvest strategy evaluations and co-management for the Moreton Bay Trawl Fishery Principal Investigator: Dr Tony Courtney, Principal Fisheries Biologist Fisheries and Aquaculture, Agri-Science Queensland Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry Level B1, Ecosciences Precinct, Joe Baker St, Dutton Park, Queensland 4102 Email: tony.courtney@daff.qld.gov.au Project objectives: 1. Review the literature and data (i.e., economic, biological and logbook) relevant to the Moreton Bay trawl fishery. 2. Identify and prioritise management objectives for the Moreton Bay trawl fishery, as identified by the trawl fishers. 3. Undertake an economic analysis of Moreton Bay trawl fishery. 4. Quantify long-term changes to fishing power for the Moreton Bay trawl fishery. 5. Assess priority harvest strategies identified in 2 (above). Present results to, and discuss results with, Moreton Bay Seafood Industry Association (MBSIA), fishers and Fisheries Queensland. Note: Additional, specific objectives for 2 (above) were developed by fishers and the MBSIA after commencement of the project. These are presented in detail in section 5 (below). The project was an initiative of the MBSIA, primarily in response to falling profitability in the Moreton Bay prawn trawl fishery. The analyses were undertaken by a consortium of DAFF, CSIRO and University of Queensland researchers. This report adopted the Australian Standard Fish Names (http://www.fishnames.com.au/). Trends in catch and effort The Moreton Bay otter trawl fishery is a multispecies fishery, with the majority of the catch composed of Greasyback Prawns (Metapenaeus bennettae), Brown Tiger Prawns (Penaeus esculentus), Eastern King Prawns (Melicertus plebejus), squid (Uroteuthis spp., Sepioteuthis spp.), Banana Prawns (Fenneropenaeus merguiensis), Endeavour Prawns (Metapenaeus ensis, Metapenaeus endeavouri) and Moreton Bay bugs (Thenus parindicus). Other commercially important byproduct includes blue swimmer crabs (Portunus armatus), three-spot crabs (Portunus sanguinolentus), cuttlefish (Sepia spp.) and mantis shrimp (Oratosquilla spp.). Logbook catch and effort data show that total annual reported catch of prawns from the Moreton Bay otter trawl fishery has declined to 315 t in 2008 from a maximum of 901 t in 1990. The number of active licensed vessels participating in the fishery has also declined from 207 in 1991 to 57 in 2010. Similarly, fishing effort has fallen from a peak of 13,312 boat-days in 1999 to 3817 boat-days in 2008 – a 71% reduction. The declines in catch and effort are largely attributed to reduced profitability in the fishery due to increased operational costs and depressed prawn prices. The low prawn prices appear to be attributed to Australian aquacultured prawns and imported aquacultured vannamei prawns, displacing the markets for trawl-caught prawns, especially small species such as Greasyback Prawns which traditionally dominated landings in Moreton Bay. In recent years, the relatively high Australian dollar has resulted in reduced exports of Australian wild-caught prawns. This has increased supply on the domestic market which has also suppressed price increases. Since 2002, Brown Tiger Prawns have dominated annual reported landings in the Moreton Bay fishery. While total catch and effort in the bay have declined to historically low levels, the annual catch and catch rates of Brown Tiger Prawns have been at record highs in recent years. This appears to be at least partially attributed to the tiger prawn stock having recovered from excessive effort in previous decades. The total annual value of the Moreton Bay trawl fishery catch, including byproduct, is about $5 million, of which Brown Tiger Prawns account for about $2 million. Eastern King Prawns make up about 10% of the catch and are mainly caught in the bay from October to December as they migrate to offshore waters outside the bay where they contribute to a large mono-specific trawl fishery. Some of the Eastern King Prawns harvested in Moreton Bay may be growth overfished (i.e., caught below the size required to maximise yield or value), although the optimum size-at-capture was not determined in this study. Banana Prawns typically make up about 5% of the catch, but can exceed 20%, particularly following heavy rainfall. Economic analysis of the fishery From the economic survey, cash profits were, on average, positive for both fleet segments in both years of the survey. However, after the opportunity cost of capital and depreciation were taken into account, the residual owner-operator income was relatively low, and substantially lower than the average share of revenue paid to employed skippers. Consequently, owner-operators were earning less than their opportunity cost of their labour, suggesting that the fleets were economically unviable in the longer term. The M2 licensed fleet were, on average, earning similar boat cash profits as the T1/M1 fleet, although after the higher capital costs were accounted for the T1/M1 boats were earning substantially lower returns to owner-operator labour. The mean technical efficiency for the fleet as a whole was estimated to be 0.67. That is, on average, the boats were only catching 67 per cent of what was possible given their level of inputs (hours fished and hull units). Almost one-quarter of observations had efficiency scores above 0.8, suggesting a substantial proportion of the fleet are relatively efficient, but some are also relatively inefficient. Both fleets had similar efficiency distributions, with median technical efficiency score of 0.71 and 0.67 for the M2 and T1/M1 boats respectively. These scores are reasonably consistent with other studies of prawn trawl fleets in Australia, although higher average efficiency scores were found in the NSW prawn trawl fleet. From the inefficiency model, several factors were found to significantly influence vessel efficiency. These included the number of years of experience as skipper, the number of generations that the skipper’s family had been fishing and the number of years schooling. Skippers with more schooling were significantly more efficient than skippers with lower levels of schooling, consistent with other studies. Skippers who had been fishing longer were, in fact, less efficient than newer skippers. However, this was mitigated in the case of skippers whose family had been involved in fishing for several generations, consistent with other studies and suggesting that skill was passed through by families over successive generations. Both the linear and log-linear regression models of total fishing effort against the marginal profit per hour performed reasonably well, explaining between 70 and 84 per cent of the variation in fishing effort. As the models had different dependent variables (one logged and the other not logged) this is not a good basis for model choice. A better comparator is the square root of the mean square error (SMSE) expressed as a percentage of the mean total effort. On this criterion, both models performed very similarly. The linear model suggests that each additional dollar of average profits per hour in the fishery increases total effort by around 26 hours each month. From the log linear model, each percentage increase in profits per hour increases total fishing effort by 0.13 per cent. Both models indicate that economic performance is a key driver of fishing effort in the fishery. The effect of removing the boat-replacement policy is to increase individual vessel profitability, catch and effort, but the overall increase in catch is less than that removed by the boats that must exit the fishery. That is, the smaller fleet (in terms of boat numbers) is more profitable but the overall catch is not expected to be greater than before. This assumes, however, that active boats are removed, and that these were also taking an average level of catch. If inactive boats are removed, then catch of the remaining group as a whole could increase by between 14 and 17 per cent depending on the degree to which costs are reduced with the new boats. This is still substantially lower than historical levels of catch by the fleet. Fishing power analyses An analysis of logbook data from 1988 to 2010, and survey information on fishing gear, was performed to estimate the long-term variation in the fleet’s ability to catch prawns (known as fishing power) and to derive abundance estimates of the three most commercially important prawn species (i.e., Brown Tiger, Eastern King and Greasyback Prawns). Generalised linear models were used to explain the variation in catch as a function of effort (i.e., hours fished per day), vessel and gear characteristics, onboard technologies, population abundance and environmental factors. This analysis estimated that fishing power associated with Brown Tiger and Eastern King Prawns increased over the past 20 years by 10–30% and declined by approximately 10% for greasybacks. The density of tiger prawns was estimated to have almost tripled from around 0.5 kg per hectare in 1988 to 1.5 kg/ha in 2010. The density of Eastern King Prawns was estimated to have fluctuated between 1 and 2 kg per hectare over this time period, without any noticeable overall trend, while Greasyback Prawn densities were estimated to have fluctuated between 2 and 6 kg per hectare, also without any distinctive trend. A model of tiger prawn catches was developed to evaluate the impact of fishing on prawn survival rates in Moreton Bay. The model was fitted to logbook data using the maximum-likelihood method to provide estimates of the natural mortality rate (0.038 and 0.062 per week) and catchability (which can be defined as the proportion of the fished population that is removed by one unit of effort, in this case, estimated to be 2.5 ± 0.4 E-04 per boat-day). This approach provided a method for industry and scientists to develop together a realistic model of the dynamics of the fishery. Several aspects need to be developed further to make this model acceptable to industry. Firstly, there is considerable evidence to suggest that temperature influences prawn catchability. This ecological effect should be incorporated before developing meaningful harvest strategies. Secondly, total effort has to be allocated between each species. Such allocation of effort could be included in the model by estimating several catchability coefficients. Nevertheless, the work presented in this report is a stepping stone towards estimating essential fishery parameters and developing representative mathematical models required to evaluate harvest strategies. Developing a method that allowed an effective discussion between industry, management and scientists took longer than anticipated. As a result, harvest strategy evaluations were preliminary and only included the most valuable species in the fishery, Brown Tiger Prawns. Additional analyses and data collection, including information on catch composition from field sampling, migration rates and recruitment, would improve the modelling. Harvest strategy evaluations As the harvest strategy evaluations are preliminary, the following results should not be adopted for management purposes until more thorough evaluations are performed. The effects, of closing the fishery for one calendar month, on the annual catch and value of Brown Tiger Prawns were investigated. Each of the 12 months (i.e., January to December) was evaluated. The results were compared against historical records to determine the magnitude of gain or loss associated with the closure. Uncertainty regarding the trawl selectivity was addressed using two selectivity curves, one with a weight at 50% selection (S50%) of 7 g, based on research data, and a second with S50% of 14 g, put forward by industry. In both cases, it was concluded that any monthly closure after February would not be beneficial to the industry. The magnitude of the benefit of closing the fishery in either January or February was sensitive to which mesh selectivity curve that was assumed, with greater benefit achieved when the smaller selectivity curve (i.e., S50% = 7 g) was assumed. Using the smaller selectivity (S50% = 7 g), the expected increase in catch value was 10–20% which equates to $200,000 to $400,000 annually, while the larger selectivity curve (S50% = 14 g) suggested catch value would be improved by 5–10%, or $100,000 to $200,000. The harvest strategy evaluations showed that greater benefits, in the order of 30–60% increases in the tiger annual catch value, could have been obtained by closing the fishery early in the year when annual effort levels were high (i.e., > 10,000 boat-days). In recent years, as effort levels have declined (i.e., ~4000 boat-days annually), expected benefits from such closures are more modest. In essence, temporal closures offer greater benefit when fishing mortality rates are high. A spatial analysis of Brown Tiger Prawn catch and effort was also undertaken to obtain a better understanding of the prawn population dynamics. This indicated that, to improve profitability of the fishery, fishers could consider closing the fishery in the period from June to October, which is already a period of low profitability. This would protect the Brown Tiger Prawn spawning stock, increase catch rates of all species in the lucrative pre-Christmas period (November–December), and provide fishers with time to do vessel maintenance, arrange markets for the next season’s harvest, and, if they wish, work at other jobs. The analysis found that the instantaneous rate of total mortality (Z) for the March–June period did not vary significantly over the last two decades. As the Brown Tiger Prawn population in Moreton Bay has clearly increased over this time period, an interesting conclusion is that the instantaneous rate of natural mortality (M) must have increased, suggesting that tiger prawn natural mortality may be density-dependent at this time of year. Mortality rates of tiger prawns for June–October were found to have decreased over the last two decades, which has probably had a positive effect on spawning stocks in the October–November spawning period. Abiotic effects on the prawns The influence of air temperature, rainfall, freshwater flow, the southern oscillation index (SOI) and lunar phase on the catch rates of the four main prawn species were investigated. The analyses were based on over 200,000 daily logbook catch records over 23 years (i.e., 1988–2010). Freshwater flow was more influential than rainfall and SOI, and of the various sources of flow, the Brisbane River has the greatest volume and influence on Moreton Bay prawn catches. A number of time-lags were also considered. Flow in the preceding month prior to catch (i.e., 30 days prior, Logflow1_30) and two months prior (31–60 days prior, Logflow31_60) had strong positive effects on Banana Prawn catch rates. Average air temperature in the preceding 4-6 months (Temp121_180) also had a large positive effect on Banana Prawn catch rates. Flow in the month immediately preceding catch (Logflow1_30) had a strong positive influence on Greasyback Prawn catch rates. Air temperature in the preceding two months prior to catch (Temp1_60) had a large positive effect on Brown Tiger Prawn catch rates. No obvious or marked effects were detected for Eastern King Prawns, although interestingly, catch rates declined with increasing air temperature 4–6 months prior to catch. As most Eastern King Prawn catches in Moreton Bay occur in October to December, the results suggest catch rates decline with increasing winter temperatures. In most cases, the prawn catch rates declined with the waxing lunar phase (high luminance/full moon), and increased with the waning moon (low luminance/new moon). The SOI explains little additional variation in prawn catch rates (~ <2%), although its influence was higher for Banana Prawns. Extrapolating findings of the analyses to long-term climate change effects should be interpreted with caution. That said, the results are consistent with likely increases in abundance in the region for the two tropical species, Banana Prawns and Brown Tiger Prawns, as coastal temperatures rise. Conversely, declines in abundance could be expected for the two temperate species, Greasyback and Eastern King Prawns. Corporate management structures An examination of alternative governance systems was requested by the industry at one of the early meetings, particularly systems that may give them greater autonomy in decision making as well as help improve the marketing of their product. Consequently, a review of alternative management systems was undertaken, with a particular focus on the potential for self-management of small fisheries (small in terms of number of participants) and corporate management. The review looks at systems that have been implemented or proposed for other small fisheries internationally, with a particular focus on self-management as well as the potential benefits and challenges for corporate management. This review also highlighted particular opportunities for the Moreton Bay prawn fishery. Corporate management differs from other co-management and even self-management arrangements in that ‘ownership’ of the fishery is devolved to a company in which fishers and government are shareholders. The company manages the fishery as well as coordinates marketing to ensure that the best prices are received and that the catch taken meets the demands of the market. Coordinated harvesting will also result in increased profits, which are returned to fishers in the form of dividends. Corporate management offers many of the potential benefits of an individual quota system without formally implementing such a system. A corporate management model offers an advantage over a self-management model in that it can coordinate both marketing and management to take advantage of this unique geographical advantage. For such a system to be successful, the fishery needs to be relatively small and self- contained. Small in this sense is in terms of number of operators. The Moreton Bay prawn fishery satisfies these key conditions for a successful self-management and potentially corporate management system. The fishery is small both in terms of number of participants and geography. Unlike other fisheries that have progressed down the self-management route, the key market for the product from the Moreton Bay fishery is right at its doorstep. Corporate management also presents a number of challenges. First, it will require changes in the way fishers operate. In particular, the decision on when to fish and what to catch will be taken away from the individual and decided by the collective. Problems will develop if individuals do not join the corporation but continue to fish and market their own product separately. While this may seem an attractive option to fishers who believe they can do better independently, this is likely to be just a short- term advantage with an overall long-run cost to themselves as well as the rest of the industry. There are also a number of other areas that need further consideration, particularly in relation to the allocation of shares, including who should be allocated shares (e.g. just boat owners or also some employed skippers). Similarly, how harvesting activity is to be allocated by the corporation to the fishers. These are largely issues that cannot be answered without substantial consultation with those likely to be affected, and these groups cannot give these issues serious consideration until the point at which they are likely to become a reality. Given the current structure and complexity of the fishery, it is unlikely that such a management structure will be feasible in the short term. However, the fishery is a prime candidate for such a model, and development of such a management structure in the future should be considered as an option for the longer term.

Liveweight gain and feed intake of weaned Bali cattle fed a range of diets in Central Sulawesi, Indonesia

Three experiments were conducted to determine liveweight (W) gain and feed and water intake of weaned Bali cattle offered a range of feed types. In each experiment, 18 weaned entire male Bali cattle were allocated to three treatment groups in a completely randomised block design, with six replicates (animals) per treatment. The dietary treatments were: Experiment 1, native grass fed ad libitum, native grass supplemented with rice bran at 10 g dry matter (DM)/kg W.day and native grass supplemented with a mixture of rice bran and copra meal in equal proportions fed at 10 g DM/kg W.day; Experiment 2, elephant grass hay fed ad libitum, elephant grass supplemented with gliricidia at 10 g DM/kg W.day, and gliricidia fed ad libitum; and Experiment 3, corn stover fed ad libitum, corn stover supplemented with gliricidia at 10 g DM/kg W.day, and corn stover supplemented with rice bran/copra meal in equal amounts (w/w) at 10 g DM/kg W.day. Each experiment was 10 weeks in duration, consisting of a 2-week preliminary period for adaptation to diets and an 8-week experimental period for the measurement of W change, feed and water intake and digestibility of the diet. Growth rates of 6-12-month-old, entire male Bali cattle fed a range of local diets ranged from 0.10 and 0.40 kg/day. Lowest growth rates occurred when the cattle were given the basal diets of native grass (0.104 kg/day), elephant grass (0.174 kg/day) and corn stover (0.232 kg/day). With the addition of supplements such as rice bran, rice bran/copra meal or gliricidia to these basal diets liveweight gains increased to between 0.225 and 0.402 kg/day. Forage DM intake was reduced with these supplements by on average 22.6% while total DM intake was increased by an average of 10.5%. The growth rate on gliricidia alone was 0.269 kg/day and feed DM intake was 28.0 g/kg W.day. Water intake was not affected by supplement type or intake. In conclusion, inclusion of small quantities of locally available, high quality feed supplements provide small-holder farmers with the potential to increase growth rates of Bali calves from 0.1 to 0.2 kg/day, under prevailing feeding scenarios, to over 0.4 kg/day.

Estimating daily methane production in individual cattle with irregular feed intake patterns from short-term methane emission measurements

Spot measurements of methane emission rate (n = 18 700) by 24 Angus steers fed mixed rations from GrowSafe feeders were made over 3- to 6-min periods by a GreenFeed emission monitoring (GEM) unit. The data were analysed to estimate daily methane production (DMP; g/day) and derived methane yield (MY; g/kg dry matter intake (DMI)). A one-compartment dose model of spot emission rate v. time since the preceding meal was compared with the models of Wood (1967) and Dijkstra et al. (1997) and the average of spot measures. Fitted values for DMP were calculated from the area under the curves. Two methods of relating methane and feed intakes were then studied: the classical calculation of MY as DMP/DMI (kg/day); and a novel method of estimating DMP from time and size of preceding meals using either the data for only the two meals preceding a spot measurement, or all meals for 3 days prior. Two approaches were also used to estimate DMP from spot measurements: fitting of splines on a 'per-animal per-day' basis and an alternate approach of modelling DMP after each feed event by least squares (using Solver), summing (for each animal) the contributions from each feed event by best-fitting a one-compartment model. Time since the preceding meal was of limited value in estimating DMP. Even when the meal sizes and time intervals between a spot measurement and all feeding events in the previous 72 h were assessed, only 16.9% of the variance in spot emission rate measured by GEM was explained by this feeding information. While using the preceding meal alone gave a biased (underestimate) of DMP, allowing for a longer feed history removed this bias. A power analysis taking into account the sources of variation in DMP indicated that to obtain an estimate of DMP with a 95% confidence interval within 5% of the observed 64 days mean of spot measures would require 40 animals measured over 45 days (two spot measurements per day) or 30 animals measured over 55 days. These numbers suggest that spot measurements could be made in association with feed efficiency tests made over 70 days. Spot measurements of enteric emissions can be used to define DMP but the number of animals and samples are larger than are needed when day-long measures are made.

Dietary habits and obesity: the role of emotional and cognitive factors

In post-industrialised societies, food is more plentiful, accessible and palatable than ever before and technological development has reduced the need for physical activity. Consequently, the prevalence of obesity is increasing, which is problematic as obesity is related to a number of diseases. Various psychological and social factors have an important influence on dietary habits and the development of obesity in the current food-rich and sedentary environments. The present study concentrates on the associations of emotional and cognitive factors with dietary intake and obesity as well as on the role these factors play in socioeconomic disparities in diet. Many people cognitively restrict their food intake to prevent weight gain or to lose weight, but research on whether restrained eating is a useful weight control strategy has produced conflicting findings. With respect to emotional factors, the evidence is accumulating that depressive symptoms are related to less healthy dietary intake and obesity, but the mechanisms explaining these associations remain unclear. Furthermore, it is not fully understood why socioeconomically disadvantaged individuals tend to have unhealthier dietary habits and the motives underlying food choices (e.g., price and health) could be relevant in this respect. The specific aims of the study were to examine 1) whether obesity status and dieting history moderate the associations of restrained eating with overeating tendencies, self-control and obesity indicators; 2) whether the associations of depressive symptoms with unhealthier dietary intake and obesity are attributable to a tendency for emotional eating and a low level of physical activity self-efficacy; and 3) whether the absolute or relative importance of food choice motives (health, pleasure, convenience, price, familiarity and ethicality) contribute to the socioeconomic disparities in dietary habits. The study was based on a large population-based sample of Finnish adults: the participants were men (N=2325) and women (N=2699) aged 25-74 who took part in the DILGOM (Dietary, Lifestyle and Genetic Determinants of Obesity and Metabolic Syndrome) sub-study of the National FINRISK Study 2007. The participants weight, height, waist circumference and body fat percentage were measured in a health examination. Psychological eating styles (the Three-Factor Eating Questionnaire-R18), food choice motives (a shortened version of the Food Choice Questionnaire), depressive symptoms (the Center for Epidemiological Studies Depression Scale) and self-control (the Brief Self-Control Scale) were measured with pre-existing questionnaires. A validated food frequency questionnaire was used to assess the average consumption of sweet and non-sweet energy-dense foods and vegetables/fruit. Self-reported total years of education and gross household income were used as indicators of socioeconomic position. The results indicated that 1) restrained eating was related to a lower body mass index, waist circumference, emotional eating and uncontrolled eating, and to a higher self-control in obese participants and current/past dieters. In contrast, the associations were the opposite in normal weight individuals and those who had never dieted. Thus, restrained eating may be related to better weight control among obese individuals and those with dieting experiences, while among others it may function as an indicator of problems with eating and an attempt to solve them. 2) Emotional eating and depressive symptoms were both related to less healthy dietary intake, and the greater consumption of energy-dense sweet foods among participants with elevated depressive symptoms was attributable to the susceptibility for emotional eating. In addition, emotional eating and physical activity self-efficacy were both important in explaining the positive association between depressive symptoms and obesity. 3) The lower vegetable/fruit intake and higher energy-dense food intake among individuals with a low socioeconomic position were partly explained by the higher priority they placed on price and familiarity and the lower priority they gave to health motives in their daily food choices. In conclusion, although policy interventions to change the obesogenic nature of the current environment are definitely needed, knowledge of the factors that hinder or facilitate people s ability to cope with the food-rich environment is also necessary. This study implies that more emphasis should be placed on various psychological and social factors in weight control programmes and interventions.

Average variation L2-stability criteria for time-varying feedback systems-A unified approach

The problem of developing L2-stability criteria for feedback systems with a single time-varying gain, which impose average variation constraints on the gain is treated. A unified approach is presented which facilitates the development of such average variation criteria for both linear and nonlinear systems. The stability criteria derived here are shown to be more general than the existing results.

Simulating the daily discharge of the Mandovi River, west coast of India

A hydrological modelling framework was assembled to simulate the daily discharge of the Mandovi River on the Indian west coast. Approximately 90% of the west-coast rainfall, and therefore discharge, occurs during the summer monsoon (June-September), with a peak during July-August. The modelling framework consisted of a digital elevation model (DEM) called GLOBE, a hydrological routing algorithm, the Terrestrial Hydrological Model with Biogeochemistry (THMB), an algorithm to map the rainfall recorded by sparse rain-gauges to the model grid, and a modified Soil Conservation Service Curve Number (SCS-CN) method. A series of discharge simulations (with and without the SCS method) was carried out. The best simulation was obtained after incorporating spatio-temporal variability in the SCS parameters, which was achieved by an objective division of the season into five regimes: the lean season, monsoon onset, peak monsoon, end-monsoon, and post-monsoon. A novel attempt was made to incorporate objectively the different regimes encountered before, during and after the Indian monsoon, into a hydrological modelling framework. The strength of our method lies in the low demand it makes on hydrological data. Apart from information on the average soil type in a region, the entire parameterization is built on the basis of the rainfall that is used to force the model. That the model does not need to be calibrated separately for each river is important, because most of the Indian west-coast basins are ungauged. Hence, even though the model has been validated only for the Mandovi basin, its potential region of application is considerable. In the context of the Prediction in Ungauged Basins (PUB) framework, the potential of the proposed approach is significant, because the discharge of these (ungauged) rivers into the eastern Arabian Sea is not small, making them an important element of the local climate system.

Generalizing the Amplify-and-Forward Relay Gain Model: An Optimal SEP Perspective

Two models for AF relaying, namely, fixed gain and fixed power relaying, have been extensively studied in the literature given their ability to harness spatial diversity. In fixed gain relaying, the relay gain is fixed but its transmit power varies as a function of the source-relay channel gain. In fixed power relaying, the relay transmit power is fixed, but its gain varies. We revisit and generalize the fundamental two-hop AF relaying model. We present an optimal scheme in which an average power constrained AF relay adapts its gain and transmit power to minimize the symbol error probability (SEP) at the destination. Also derived are insightful and practically amenable closed-form bounds for the optimal relay gain. We then analyze the SEP of MPSK, derive tight bounds for it, and characterize the diversity order for Rayleigh fading. Also derived is an SEP approximation that is accurate to within 0.1 dB. Extensive results show that the scheme yields significant energy savings of 2.0-7.7 dB at the source and relay. Optimal relay placement for the proposed scheme is also characterized, and is different from fixed gain or power relaying. Generalizations to MQAM and other fading distributions are also discussed.

SEP-optimal adaptive gain and transmit power amplify-and-forward relaying

Amplify-and-forward (AF) relay based cooperation has been investigated in the literature given its simplicity and practicality. Two models for AF, namely, fixed gain and fixed power relaying, have been extensively studied. In fixed gain relaying, the relay gain is fixed but its transmit power varies as a function of the source-relay (SR) channel gain. In fixed power relaying, the relay's instantaneous transmit power is fixed, but its gain varies. We propose a general AF cooperation model in which an average transmit power constrained relay jointly adapts its gain and transmit power as a function of the channel gains. We derive the optimal AF gain policy that minimizes the fading- averaged symbol error probability (SEP) of MPSK and present insightful and tractable lower and upper bounds for it. We then analyze the SEP of the optimal policy. Our results show that the optimal scheme is up to 39.7% and 47.5% more energy-efficient than fixed power relaying and fixed gain relaying, respectively. Further, the weaker the direct source-destination link, the greater are the energy-efficiency gains.

Tradeoff of average power and average delay for a point-to-point link with fading

We consider a discrete time system with packets arriving randomly at rate lambda per slot to a fading point-to-point link, for which the transmitter can control the number of packets served in a slot by varying the transmit power. We provide an asymptotic characterization of the minimum average delay of the packets, when average transmitter power is a small positive quantity V more than the minimum average power required for queue stability. We show that the minimum average delay will grow either as log (1/V) or 1/V when V down arrow 0, for certain sets of values of lambda. These sets are determined by the distribution of fading gain, the maximum number of packets which can be transmitted in a slot, and the assumed transmit power function, as a function of the fading gain and the number of packets transmitted. We identify a case where the above behaviour of the tradeoff differs from that obtained from a previously considered model, in which the random queue length process is assumed to evolve on the non-negative real line.

Multi-site downscaling of maximum and minimum daily temperature using support vector machine

Climate change impact assessment studies involve downscaling large-scale atmospheric predictor variables (LSAPVs) simulated by general circulation models (GCMs) to site-scale meteorological variables. This article presents a least-square support vector machine (LS-SVM)-based methodology for multi-site downscaling of maximum and minimum daily temperature series. The methodology involves (1) delineation of sites in the study area into clusters based on correlation structure of predictands, (2) downscaling LSAPVs to monthly time series of predictands at a representative site identified in each of the clusters, (3) translation of the downscaled information in each cluster from the representative site to that at other sites using LS-SVM inter-site regression relationships, and (4) disaggregation of the information at each site from monthly to daily time scale using k-nearest neighbour disaggregation methodology. Effectiveness of the methodology is demonstrated by application to data pertaining to four sites in the catchment of Beas river basin, India. Simulations of Canadian coupled global climate model (CGCM3.1/T63) for four IPCC SRES scenarios namely A1B, A2, B1 and COMMIT were downscaled to future projections of the predictands in the study area. Comparison of results with those based on recently proposed multivariate multiple linear regression (MMLR) based downscaling method and multi-site multivariate statistical downscaling (MMSD) method indicate that the proposed method is promising and it can be considered as a feasible choice in statistical downscaling studies. The performance of the method in downscaling daily minimum temperature was found to be better when compared with that in downscaling daily maximum temperature. Results indicate an increase in annual average maximum and minimum temperatures at all the sites for A1B, A2 and B1 scenarios. The projected increment is high for A2 scenario, and it is followed by that for A1B, B1 and COMMIT scenarios. Projections, in general, indicated an increase in mean monthly maximum and minimum temperatures during January to February and October to December.

Evaluación de los cambios en las temperaturas máximas, mínimas y medias diarias en la Cornisa Cantábrica (1928-2013): influencia de la NAO en la variabilidad observada.

[ES]Se ha estudiado la variabilidad de la temperatura en la Cornisa Cantábrica en el periodo 1928-2013 analizando los índices de la temperatura máxima, mínima y media, el rango diario de temperaturas y el número de días de helada. Asimismo se ha analizado la influencia que tiene el índice NAO sobre la temperatura. Para su evaluación se han utilizado las bases de datos de catorce observatorios atmosféricos, un observatorio marítimo y el índice NAO mensual de Hurrell. Se ha observado que la temperatura de la Cornisa Cantábrica ha aumentado sobre todo en las últimas cuatro décadas, siendo mayor el incremento de la temperatura máxima que el de la mínima (1973-2013). Además, la temperatura marítima del Este del mar Cantábrico ha ascendido a un ritmo de 0,197°C dec-1. El índice NAO no muestra relación con la variabilidad de la temperatura.

Recalculated diet and daily ration of the shortfin mako (Isurus oxyrinchus), with a focus on quantifying predation on bluefish (Pomatomus saltatrix) in the northwest Atlantic Ocean

The diet and daily ration of the shortfin mako (Isurus oxyrinchus) in the northwest Atlantic were re-examined to determine whether fluctuations in prey abundance and availability are reflected in these two biological variables. During the summers of 2001 and 2002, stomach content data were collected from fishing tournaments along the northeast coast of the United States. These data were quantified by using four diet indices and were compared to index calculations from historical diet data collected from 1972 through 1983. Bluefish (Pomatomus saltatrix) were the predominant prey in the 1972–83 and 2001–02 diets, accounting for 92.6% of the current diet by weight and 86.9% of the historical diet by volume. From the 2001– 02 diet data, daily ration was estimated and it indicated that shortfin makos must consume roughly 4.6% of their body weight per day to fulfill energetic demands. The daily energetic requirement was broken down by using a calculated energy content for the current diet of 4909 KJ/kg. Based on the proportional energy of bluefish in the diet by weight, an average shortfin mako consumes roughly 500 kg of bluefish per year off the northeast coast of the United States. The results are discussed in relation to the potential effect of intense shortfin mako predation on bluefish abundance in the region.

Comparison of average larval fish vertical distributions among species exhibiting different transport pathways on the southeast United States continental shelf

Water currents are vertically structured in many marine systems and as a result, vertical movements by fish larvae and zooplankton affect horizontal transport (Power, 1984). In estuaries, the vertical movements of larvae with tidal periods can result in their retention or ingress (Fortier and Leggett, 1983; Rijnsdorp et al., 1985; Cronin and Forward, 1986; Forward et al., 1999). On the continental shelf, the vertical movements of organisms interact daily and ontogenetically with depth-varying currents to affect horizontal transport (Pillar et al., 1989; Barange and Pillar, 1992; Cowen et al., 1993, 2000; Batchelder et al., 2002).