Testing for hysteresis in unemployment in OECD countries: new evidence using stationarity panel tests with breaks

This paper tests hysteresis effects in unemployment using panel data for 19 OECD countries covering the period 1956-2001. The tests exploit the cross-section variations of the series, and additionally, allow for a diferent number of endogenous breakpoints in the unemployment series. The critical values are simulated based on our specific panel sizes and time periods. The findings stress the importance of accounting for exogenous shocks in the series and give support to the natural-rate hypothesis of unemployment for the majority of the countries analyzed

Testing for multicointegration in panel data with common factors

The paper addresses the concept of multicointegration in panel data frame- work. The proposal builds upon the panel data cointegration procedures developed in Pedroni (2004), for which we compute the moments of the parametric statistics. When individuals are either cross-section independent or cross-section dependence can be re- moved by cross-section demeaning, our approach can be applied to the wider framework of mixed I(2) and I(1) stochastic processes analysis. The paper also deals with the issue of cross-section dependence using approximate common factor models. Finite sample performance is investigated through Monte Carlo simulations. Finally, we illustrate the use of the procedure investigating inventories, sales and production relationship for a panel of US industries.

New evidence of the real interest rate parity for OECD countries using panel unit root tests with breaks

This paper tests for real interest parity (RIRP) among the nineteen major OECD countries over the period 1978:Q2-1998:Q4. The econometric methods applied consist of combining the use of several unit root or stationarity tests designed for panels valid under cross-section dependence and presence of multiple structural breaks. Our results strongly support the fulfilment of the weak version of the RIRP for the studied period once dependence and structural breaks are accounted for.

Transport properties across the La2/3Ca1/3MnO3/SrTiO3 heterointerface

The transport properties across La2/3Ca1/3MnO3/SrTiO3 (LCMO/STO) heterostructures with different thicknesses of the STO insulating barrier have been studied by using atomic force microscopy measurements in the current sensing (CS) mode. To avoid intrinsic problems of the CS method we have developed a nanostructured contact geometry of Au dots. The conduction process across the LCMO/STO interface exhibits the typical features of a tunneling process.

Were Spanish migrants attracted by industrial agglomerations?: an analysis for the interwar years in the light of the new economic geography

In this paper we examine whether access to markets had a significant influence onmigration choices of Spanish internal migrants in the inter-war years. We perform astructural contrast of a New Economic Geography model that focus on the forwardlinkage that links workers location choice with the geography of industrial production,one of the centripetal forces that drive agglomeration in the NEG models. The resultshighlight the presence of this forward linkage in the Spanish economy of the inter-warperiod. That is, we prove the existence of a direct relation between workers¿ localizationdecisions and the market potential of the host regions. In addition, the direct estimationof the values associated with key parameters in the NEG model allows us to simulatethe migratory flows derived from different scenarios of the relative size of regions andthe distances between them. We show that in Spain the power of attraction of theagglomerations grew as they increased in size, but the high elasticity estimated for themigration costs reduced the intensity of the migratory flows. This could help to explainthe apparently low intensity of internal migrations in Spain until its upsurge during the1920s. This also explains the geography of migrations in Spain during this period,which hardly affected the regions furthest from the large industrial agglomerations (i.e.,regions such as Andalusia, Estremadura and Castile-La Mancha) but had an intenseeffect on the provinces nearest to the principal centres of industrial development.

Testing for hysteresis in unemployment in OECD countries: new evidence using stationarity panel tests with breaks

This paper tests hysteresis effects in unemployment using panel data for 19 OECD countries covering the period 1956-2001. The tests exploit the cross-section variations of the series, and additionally, allow for a diferent number of endogenous breakpoints in the unemployment series. The critical values are simulated based on our specific panel sizes and time periods. The findings stress the importance of accounting for exogenous shocks in the series and give support to the natural-rate hypothesis of unemployment for the majority of the countries analyzed

Testing for multicointegration in panel data with common factors

The paper addresses the concept of multicointegration in panel data frame- work. The proposal builds upon the panel data cointegration procedures developed in Pedroni (2004), for which we compute the moments of the parametric statistics. When individuals are either cross-section independent or cross-section dependence can be re- moved by cross-section demeaning, our approach can be applied to the wider framework of mixed I(2) and I(1) stochastic processes analysis. The paper also deals with the issue of cross-section dependence using approximate common factor models. Finite sample performance is investigated through Monte Carlo simulations. Finally, we illustrate the use of the procedure investigating inventories, sales and production relationship for a panel of US industries.

New evidence of the real interest rate parity for OECD countries using panel unit root tests with breaks

This paper tests for real interest parity (RIRP) among the nineteen major OECD countries over the period 1978:Q2-1998:Q4. The econometric methods applied consist of combining the use of several unit root or stationarity tests designed for panels valid under cross-section dependence and presence of multiple structural breaks. Our results strongly support the fulfilment of the weak version of the RIRP for the studied period once dependence and structural breaks are accounted for.

Level shifts in a panel data based unit root test : an application to the rate of unemployment

Several unit root tests in panel data have recently been proposed. The test developed by Harris and Tzavalis (1999 JoE) performs particularly well when the time dimension is moderate in relation to the cross-section dimension. However, in common with the traditional tests designed for the unidimensional case, it was found to perform poorly when there is a structural break in the time series under the alternative. Here we derive the asymptotic distribution of the test allowing for a shift in the mean, and assess the small sample performance. We apply this new test to show how the hypothesis of (perfect) hysteresis in Spanish unemployment is rejected in favour of the alternative of the natural unemployment rate, when the possibility of a change in the latter is considered.

Breaking the panels: an application to the GDP per capita

This paper proposes a test statistic for the null hypothesis of panel stationarity that allows for the presence of multiple structural breaks. Two different speci¿cations are considered depending on the structural breaks affecting the individual effects and/or the time trend. The model is ¿exible enough to allow the number of breaks and their position to differ across individuals. The test is shown to have an exact limit distribution with a good ¿nite sample performance. Its application to a typical panel data set of real per capita GDP gives support to the trend stationarity of these series

Unemployment dynamics and NAIRU estimates for CEECs : a univariate approach

In this paper we test for the hysteresis versus the natural rate hypothesis on the unemployment rates of the EU new members using unit root tests that account for the presence of level shifts. As a by product, the analysis proceeds to the estimation of a NAIRU measure from a univariate point of view. The paper also focuses on the precision of these NAIRU estimates studying the two sources of inaccuracy that derive from the break points estimation and the autoregressive parameters estimation. The results point to the existence of up to four structural breaks in the transition countries NAIRU that can be associated with institutional changes implementing market-oriented reforms. Moreover, the degree of persistence in unemployment varies dramatically among the individual countries depending on the stage reached in the transition process

Were Spanish migrants attracted by industrial agglomerations?: an analysis for the interwar years in the light of the new economic geography

In this paper we examine whether access to markets had a significant influence onmigration choices of Spanish internal migrants in the inter-war years. We perform astructural contrast of a New Economic Geography model that focus on the forwardlinkage that links workers location choice with the geography of industrial production,one of the centripetal forces that drive agglomeration in the NEG models. The resultshighlight the presence of this forward linkage in the Spanish economy of the inter-warperiod. That is, we prove the existence of a direct relation between workers¿ localizationdecisions and the market potential of the host regions. In addition, the direct estimationof the values associated with key parameters in the NEG model allows us to simulatethe migratory flows derived from different scenarios of the relative size of regions andthe distances between them. We show that in Spain the power of attraction of theagglomerations grew as they increased in size, but the high elasticity estimated for themigration costs reduced the intensity of the migratory flows. This could help to explainthe apparently low intensity of internal migrations in Spain until its upsurge during the1920s. This also explains the geography of migrations in Spain during this period,which hardly affected the regions furthest from the large industrial agglomerations (i.e.,regions such as Andalusia, Estremadura and Castile-La Mancha) but had an intenseeffect on the provinces nearest to the principal centres of industrial development.

Were Spanish migrants attracted by industrial agglomerations?: an analysis for the interwar years in the light of the new economic geography

In this paper we examine whether access to markets had a significant influence onmigration choices of Spanish internal migrants in the inter-war years. We perform astructural contrast of a New Economic Geography model that focus on the forwardlinkage that links workers location choice with the geography of industrial production,one of the centripetal forces that drive agglomeration in the NEG models. The resultshighlight the presence of this forward linkage in the Spanish economy of the inter-warperiod. That is, we prove the existence of a direct relation between workers¿ localizationdecisions and the market potential of the host regions. In addition, the direct estimationof the values associated with key parameters in the NEG model allows us to simulatethe migratory flows derived from different scenarios of the relative size of regions andthe distances between them. We show that in Spain the power of attraction of theagglomerations grew as they increased in size, but the high elasticity estimated for themigration costs reduced the intensity of the migratory flows. This could help to explainthe apparently low intensity of internal migrations in Spain until its upsurge during the1920s. This also explains the geography of migrations in Spain during this period,which hardly affected the regions furthest from the large industrial agglomerations (i.e.,regions such as Andalusia, Estremadura and Castile-La Mancha) but had an intenseeffect on the provinces nearest to the principal centres of industrial development.