The impact of a congestion charging exemption on the demand for new low‐emission vehicles

Numerous initiatives have been employed around the world in order to address rising greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions originating from the transport sector. These measures include: travel demand management (congestion‐charging), increased fuel taxes, alternative fuel subsidies and low‐emission vehicle (LEV) rebates. Incentivizing the purchase of LEVs has been one of the more prevalent approaches in attempting to tackle this global issue. LEVs, whilst having the advantage of lower emissions and, in some cases, more efficient fuel consumption, also bring the downsides of increased purchase cost, reduced convenience of vehicle fuelling, and operational uncertainty. To stimulate demand in the face of these challenges, various incentive‐based policies, such as toll exemptions, have been used by national and local governments to encourage the purchase of these types of vehicles. In order to address rising GHG emissions in Stockholm, and in line with the Swedish Government’s ambition to operate a fossil free fleet by 2030, a number of policies were implemented targeting the transport sector. Foremost amongst these was the combination of a congestion charge – initiated to discourage emissions‐intensive travel – and an exemption from this charge for some LEVs, established to encourage a transition towards a ‘green’ vehicle fleet. Although both policies shared the aim of reducing GHG emissions, the exemption for LEVs carried the risk of diminishing the effectiveness of the congestion charging scheme. As the number of vehicle owners choosing to transition to an eligible LEV increased, the congestion‐reduction effectiveness of the charging scheme weakened. In fact, policy makers quickly recognized this potential issue and consequently phased out the LEV exemption less than 18 months after its introduction (1). Several studies have investigated the demand for LEVs through stated‐preference (SP) surveys across multiple countries, including: Denmark (2), Germany (3, 4), UK (5), Canada (6), USA (7, 8) and Australia (9). Although each of these studies differed in approach, all involved SP surveys where differing characteristics between various types of vehicles, including LEVs, were presented to respondents and these respondents in turn made hypothetical decisions about which vehicle they would be most likely to purchase. Although these studies revealed a number of interesting findings in regards to the potential demand for LEVs, they relied on SP data. In contrast, this paper employs an approach where LEV choice is modelled by taking a retrospective view and by using revealed preference (RP) data. By examining the revealed preferences of vehicle owners in Stockholm, this study overcomes one of the principal limitations of SP data, namely that stated preferences may not in fact reflect individuals’ actual choices, such as when cost, time, and inconvenience factors are real rather than hypothetical. This paper’s RP approach involves modelling the characteristics of individuals who purchased new LEVs, whilst estimating the effect of the congestion charging exemption upon choice probabilities and subsequent aggregate demand. The paper contributes to the current literature by examining the effectiveness of a toll exemption under revealed preference conditions, and by assessing the total effect of the policy based on key indicators for policy makers, including: vehicle owner home location, commuting patterns, number of children, age, gender and income. Extended Abstract Submission for Kuhmo Nectar Conference 2014 2 The two main research questions motivating this study were:  Which individuals chose to purchase a new LEV in Stockholm in 2008?; and,  How did the congestion charging exemption affect the aggregate demand for new LEVs in Stockholm in 2008? In order to answer these research questions the analysis was split into two stages. Firstly, a multinomial logit (MNL) model was used to identify which demographic characteristics were most significantly related to the purchase of an LEV over a conventional vehicle. The three most significant variables were found to be: intra‐cordon residency (positive); commuting across the cordon (positive); and distance of residence from the cordon (negative). In order to estimate the effect of the exemption policy on vehicle purchase choice, the model included variables to control for geographic differences in preferences, based on the location of the vehicle owners’ homes and workplaces in relation to the congestion‐charging cordon boundary. These variables included one indicator representing commutes across the cordon and another indicator representing intra‐cordon residency. The effect of the exemption policy on the probability of purchasing LEVs was estimated in the second stage of the analysis by focusing on the groups of vehicle owners that were most likely to have been affected by the policy i.e. those commuting across the cordon boundary (in both directions). Given the inclusion of the indicator variable representing commutes across the cordon, it is assumed that the estimated coefficient of this variable captures the effect of the exemption policy on the utility of choosing to purchase an exempt LEV for these two groups of vehicle owners. The intra‐cordon residency indicator variable also controls for differences between the two groups, based upon direction of travel across the cordon boundary. A counter‐hypothesis to this assumption is that the coefficient of the variable representing commuting across the cordon boundary instead only captures geo‐demographic differences that lead to variations in LEV ownership across the different groups of vehicle owners in relation to the cordon boundary. In order to address this counter‐hypothesis, an additional analysis was performed on data from a city with a similar geodemographic pattern to Stockholm, Gothenburg ‐ Sweden’s second largest city. The results of this analysis provided evidence to support the argument that the coefficient of the variable representing commutes across the cordon was capturing the effect of the exemption policy. Based upon this framework, the predicted vehicle type shares were calculated using the estimated coefficients of the MNL model and compared with predicted vehicle type shares from a simulated scenario where the exemption policy was inactive. This simulated scenario was constructed by setting the coefficient for the variable representing commutes across the cordon boundary to zero for all observations to remove the utility benefit of the exemption policy. Overall, the procedure of this second stage of the analysis led to results showing that the exemption had a substantial effect upon the probability of purchasing and aggregate demand for exempt LEVs in Stockholm during 2008. By making use of unique evidence of revealed preferences of LEV owners, this study identifies the common characteristics of new LEV owners and estimates the effect of Stockholm's congestion charging exemption upon the demand for new LEVs during 2008. It was found that the variables that had the greatest effect upon the choice of purchasing an exempt LEV included intra‐cordon residency (positive), distance of home from the cordon (negative), and commuting across the cordon (positive). It was also determined that owners under the age of 30 years preferred non‐exempt LEVs (low CO2 LEVs), whilst those over the age of 30 years preferred electric vehicles. In terms of electric vehicles, it was apparent that those individuals living within the city had the highest propensity towards purchasing this vehicle type. A negative relationship between choosing an electric vehicle and the distance of an individuals’ residency from the cordon was also evident. Overall, the congestion charging exemption was found to have increased the share of exempt LEVs in Stockholm by 1.9%, with, as expected, a much stronger effect on those commuting across the boundary, with those living inside the cordon having a 13.1% increase, and those owners living outside the cordon having a 5.0% increase. This increase in demand corresponded to an additional 538 (+/‐ 93; 95% C.I.) new exempt LEVs purchased in Stockholm during 2008 (out of a total of 5 427; 9.9%). Policy makers can take note that an incentive‐based policy can increase the demand for LEVs and appears to be an appropriate approach to adopt when attempting to reduce transport emissions through encouraging a transition towards a ‘green’ vehicle fleet.

Complexity Development Theory and enterprise development at the bottom of the pyramid

In 2001 45% (2.7 billion) of the world’s population of approximately 6.1 billion lived in ‘moderate poverty’ on less than US $ 2 per person per day (World Population Summary, 2012). In the last 60 years there have been many theories attempting to explain development, why some countries have the fastest growth in history, while others stagnate and so far no way has been found to explain the differences. Traditional views imply that development is the aggregation of successes from multiple individual business enterprises, but this ignores the interactions between and among institutions, organisations and individuals in the economy, which can often have unpredictable effects. Complexity Development Theory proposes that by viewing development as an emergent property of society, we can help create better development programs at the organisational, institutional and national levels. This paper asks how the principals of CAS can be used to develop CDT principals used to develop and operate development programs at the bottom of the pyramid in developing economies. To investigate this research question we conduct a literature review to define and describe CDT and create propositions for testing. We illustrate these propositions using a case study of an Asset Based Community Development (ABCD) Program for existing and nascent entrepreneurs in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). We found evidence that all the principals of CDT were related to the characteristics of CAS. If this is the case, development programs will be able to select which CAS needed to test these propositions.

Markers of genetic susceptibility in human environmental hygiene and toxicology : the role of selected CYP, NAT and GST genes

Inherited genetic traits co-determine the susceptibility of an individual to a toxic chemical. Special emphasis has been put on individual responses to environmental and industrial carcinogens, but other chronic diseases are of increasing interest. Polymorphisms of relevant xenobiotic metabolising enzymes may be used as toxicological susceptibility markers. A growing number of genes encoding enzymes involved in biotransformation of toxicants and in cellular defence against toxicant-induced damage to the cells has been identified and cloned, leading to increased knowledge of allelic variants of genes and genetic defects that may result in a differential susceptibility toward environmental toxicants. "Low penetrating" polymorphisms in metabolism genes tend to be much more common in the population than allelic variants of "high penetrating" cancer genes, and are therefore of considerable importance from a public health point of view. Positive associations between cancer and CYP1A1 alleles, in particular the *2C I462V allele, were found for tissues following the aerodigestive tract. Again, in most cases, the effect of the variant CYP1A1 allele becomes apparent or clearer in connection with the GSTM1 null allele. The CYP1B1 codon 432 polymorphism (CYP1B1*3) has been identified as a susceptibility factor in smoking-related head-and-neck squameous cell cancer. The impact of this polymorphic variant of CYP1B1 on cancer risk was also reflected by an association with the frequency of somatic mutations of the p53 gene. Combined genotype analysis of CYP1B1 and the glutathione transferases GSTM1 or GSTT1 has also pointed to interactive effects. Of particular interest for the industrial and environmental field is the isozyme CYP2E1. Several genotypes of this isozyme have been characterised which seem to be associated with different levels of expression of enzyme activity. The acetylator status for NAT2 can be determined by genotyping or by phenotyping. In the pathogenesis of human bladder cancer due to occupational exposure to "classical" aromatic amines (benzidine, 4-aminodiphenyl, 1-naphthylamine) acetylation by NAT2 is regarded as a detoxication step. Interestingly, the underlying European findings of a higher susceptibility of slow acetylators towards aromatic amines are in contrast to findings in Chinese workers occupationally exposed to aromatic amines which points to different mechanisms of susceptibility between European and Chinese populations. Regarding human bladder cancer, the hypothesis has been put forward that genetic polymorphism of GSTM1 might be linked with the occurrence of this tumour type. This supports the hypothesis that exposure to PAH might causally be involved in urothelial cancers. The human polymorphic GST catalysing conjugation of halomethanes, dihalomethanes, ethylene oxide and a number of other industrial compounds could be characterised as a class theta enzyme (GSTT1) by means of molecular biology. "Conjugator" and "non-conjugator" phenotypes are coincident with the presence and absence of the GSTT1 gene. There are wide variations in the frequencies of GSTT1 deletion (GSTT1 *0/0) among different ethnicities. Human phenotyping is facilitated by the GST activity towards methyl bromide or ethylene oxide in erythrocytes which is representative of the metabolic GSTT1 competence of the entire organism. Inter-individual variations in xenobiotic metabolism capacities may be due to polymorphisms of the genes coding for the enzymes themselves or of the genes coding for the receptors or transcription factors which regulate the expression of the enzymes. Also, polymorphisms in several regions of genes may cause altered ligand affinity, transactivation activity or expression levels of the receptor subsequently influencing the expression of the downstream target genes. Studies of individual susceptibility to toxicants and gene-environment interaction are now emerging as an important component of molecular epidemiology.

Characteristics of low-speed vehicle run-over events in children : an 11-year review

Objectives: The purpose of this study was to investigate the characteristics associated with fatal and non-fatal low-speed vehicle run-over (LSVRO) events in relation to person, incident and injury characteristics, in order to identify appropriate points for intervention and injury prevention. Methods: Data on all known LSVRO events in Queensland, Australia, over 11 calendar years (1999–2009) were extracted from five different databases representing the continuum of care ( prehospital to fatality) and manually linked. Descriptive and multivariate analyses were used to analyse the sample characteristics in relation to demographics, health service usage, outcomes, incident characteristics, and injury characteristics. Results: Of the 1641 LSVRO incidents, 98.4% (n=1615) were non-fatal, and 1.6% were fatal (n=26). Over half the children required admission to hospital (56%, n=921); mean length of stay was 3.4 days. Younger children aged 0–4 years were more frequently injured, and experienced more serious injuries with worse outcomes. Patterns of injury (injury type and severity), injury characteristics (eg, time of injury, vehicle type, driver of vehicle, incident location), and demographic characteristics (such as socioeconomic status, indigenous status, remoteness), varied according to age group. Almost half (45.6%; n=737) the events occurred outside major cities, and approximately 10% of events involved indigenous children. Parents were most commonly the vehicle drivers in fatal incidents. While larger vehicles such as four-wheel drives (4WD) were most frequently involved in LSVRO events resulting in fatalities, cars were most frequently involved in non-fatal events. Conclusions: This is the first study, to the authors’ knowledge, to analyse the characteristics of fatal and non-fatal LSVRO events in children aged 0–15 years on a state-wide basis. Characteristics of LSVRO events varied with age, thus age-specific interventions are required. Children living outside major cities, and indigenous children, were over-represented in these data. Further research is required to identify the burden of injury in these groups.

Oral contraceptives prevent the development of endometriosis in the chicken chorioallantoic membrane model

Background: Fundamental and genetic differences between women in the endometrium may cause some to develop endometriosis, whereas others (to not. Oral contraceptives (OC) may have in effect on the endometrium, rendering the development of endometriosis less likely. Study Design: Endometrium front women using CC (OCE) and menstrual endometrium (ME) from normal cycling women were transplanted onto the chicken chorioallantoic membrane (CAM), and endometriosis-like lesion formation was evalualed. Microarray gene expression profiling was performed to identify, differentially expressed genes in the endometrium front these groups. Microarray data were validated by real-time PCR. Results: Less endometriosis-like lesions were formed after transplantation of OCE than after transplantation of ME (p<.05). Most of the differentially expressed genes belong to the TGF beta superfamily. Real-time PCR validation revealed that inhibin beta A (INHBA) expression was significantly decreased in OCE its compared to ME. Conclusion: OC use affects the characteristics Of endometrium, rendering it less potent to develop into endometriosis. (C) 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Setting limits to laughter : university teaching and the boundaries of humour

This paper forms one part of a broadly-based study into the use of humour within tertiary teaching. One theme to emerge from semi-structured, in-depth interviews with university academics concerns the setting of boundaries to the appropriate use of humour within lectures and tutorials. Following the ‘benign violations’ theory of humour—wherein, to be funny, a situation/statement must be some kind of a social violation, that violation must be regarded as relatively benign, and the two ideas must be held simultaneously—this paper suggests that the willingness of academics to use particular types of humour in their teaching revolves around the complexities of determining the margins of the benign. These margins are shaped in part by pedagogic limitations, but also by professional delimitations. In terms of limitations, the boundaries of humour are set by the academic environment of the university, by the characteristics of different cohorts of students, and by what those students are prepare to laugh at. In terms of delimitations—where humour choice is moderated, not by the possibility of immediate laughter, but rather by the consequences of that choice—academic seniority and security play a large role in determining what kinds of humour will be used, and where boundaries are to be set. The central conclusion here is that formal maxims of humour use—‘Never tease students’, ‘Don’t joke about potentially sensitive issues’—fail to account for the complexity of teaching relationships, for the differences between student cohorts, and for the talents and standing of particular teachers.

Constraints and characteristics of flexible work arrangements in small not-for-profit firms

There is a great deal of research that examines flexible working arrangements, but this work tends to be concentrated in large organisations. This research examines the approach taken to flexible working arrangements in five small community based, not for profit organisations. We present three propositions that aim to understand the constraints and the characteristics of flexible work in this rarely studied sector.

The use of creative activities in dementia in residential aged care facilities in Australia : a cross-sectional study

This thesis provides the first inquiry into the use of creative activities in dementia care in residential aged care facilities in Australia. The study used descriptive method design, incorporating a mix of quantitative and qualitative approaches to explore the incidence and the characteristics of these activities from the carers' perspective. Information about the use of creative activities and the appreciation of these activities by residents and carers is essential to the provision of dementia care and treatment to improve the quality of life of people with dementia.

On the use of optical flow for scene change detection and description

We propose the use of optical flow information as a method for detecting and describing changes in the environment, from the perspective of a mobile camera. We analyze the characteristics of the optical flow signal and demonstrate how robust flow vectors can be generated and used for the detection of depth discontinuities and appearance changes at key locations. To successfully achieve this task, a full discussion on camera positioning, distortion compensation, noise filtering, and parameter estimation is presented. We then extract statistical attributes from the flow signal to describe the location of the scene changes. We also employ clustering and dominant shape of vectors to increase the descriptiveness. Once a database of nodes (where a node is a detected scene change) and their corresponding flow features is created, matching can be performed whenever nodes are encountered, such that topological localization can be achieved. We retrieve the most likely node according to the Mahalanobis and Chi-square distances between the current frame and the database. The results illustrate the applicability of the technique for detecting and describing scene changes in diverse lighting conditions, considering indoor and outdoor environments and different robot platforms.

Lecturing and the limits of laughter

The literature on humour in teaching frequently defaults to a series of maxims about how it can be used most appropriately: ‘Never tease students', ‘Don't joke about sensitive issues', ‘Never use laughter for disciplinary purposes'. This paper outlines recent research into the boundaries of humour-use within teacher education, which itself forms one part of a large scale, broadly-based study into the use of humour within tertiary teaching. This particular part of the research involves semi-structured, in-depth interviews with university academics. Following the ‘benign violations' theory of humour - wherein, to be funny, a situation/statement must be some kind of a social violation, that violation must be regarded as relatively benign, and the two ideas must be held simultaneously - this paper suggests that the willingness of academics to use particular types of humour in their teaching revolves around the complexities of determining the margins of ‘the benign'. These margins are shaped in part by pedagogic limitations, but also by professional delimitations. In terms of limitations, the boundaries of humour are set by the academic environment of the university, by the characteristics of different cohorts of students, and by what those students are prepare to laugh at. In terms of delimitations, most academics are prepared to tease their student, and many are prepared to use laughter as a form of discipline, however their own humour orientation, academic seniority, and employment security play a large role in determining what kinds of humour will be used, and where boundaries will be set. The central conclusion here is that formal maxims of humour provide little more than vague strategic guidelines, largely failing to account for the complexity of teaching relationships, for the differences between student cohorts, and for the talents and standing of particular teachers.

Pilot study comparing the influence of different types of exercise intervention on the fear of falling in older adults

Background: Individuals who fear falling may restrict themselves from performing certain activities and may increase their risk of falling. Such fear, reflected in the form of falls efficacy, has been measured in only a small number of studies measuring the effectiveness of exercise interventions in the elderly. This may be due to the various types of exercise that can be performed. Hence the effectiveness of exercise on falls efficacy is relatively understudied. Therefore, there is a need to measure falls efficacy as an outcome variable when conducting exercise interventions in the elderly. Methods: A total of 43 elderly community-dwelling volunteers were recruited and randomly allocated to a conventional exercise intervention, a holistic exercise intervention, or a control group. The interventions were performed 2 days per week for 10 weeks. Falls efficacy was measured at baseline and at the completion of the interventions using the Modified Falls Efficacy Scale (MFES). Results: Within group comparisons between baseline and follow-up indicated no significant improvements in falls efficacy, however, the difference for the conventional exercise group approached statistical significance (baseline 8.9 to follow-up 9.3; P = 0.058). Within group comparisons of mean difference MFES scores showed a significant difference between the conventional exercise group and the control group (conventional exercise group 0.4 vs control group −0.6; P < 0.05). Conclusion: Given the lack of significant improvements in falls efficacy found for any of the groups, it cannot be concluded whether a conventional or a holistic exercise intervention is the best approach for improving falls efficacy. It is possible that the characteristics of the exercise interventions including specificity, intensity, frequency and duration need to be manipulated if the purpose is to bring about improvements in falls efficacy.

Characteristics of a sample of first time drink driving offenders in Queensland - a qualitative analysis

Drink driving incidents in the Australian community continue to be a major road safety problem resulting in a third of all fatalities. Drink driving prevalence remains high; with the rate of Australians who self report drink driving remaining at 11%-12.1% [1,2]. The focus of research in the area to date has been with recidivist offenders who have a higher probability of reoffending, while there is comparatively limited research regarding first time offenders. An important and understudied area relates to the characteristics of first offenders and predictors of recidivism. This study examined the findings of in-depth focussed interviews with a sample of 20 individual first time drink driving offenders in Queensland recruited at the time of court mention.

A preliminary analysis of teacher perceptions of the effects of NAPLAN on pedagogy and curriculum

This paper reports preliminary survey findings of Western Australian and South Australian teacher perceptions of the impact of NAPLAN on curriculum and pedagogy in their classroom and school. The paper examines how teachers perceive the effects of NAPLAN on curriculum and pedagogy and whether these perceptions mediated by the teacher’s gender, the socioeconomics of the school, the State and the school system in which the teacher works. Teachers report that they are either choosing or being instructed to teach to the test, that this results in less time being spent on other curriculum areas and that these effects contribute in a negative way to the class environment and the engagement of students. This largely agrees with a body of international research that suggests that high-stakes literacy and numeracy tests often results in unintended consequences such as a narrow curriculum focus, a return to teacher-centred instruction and a decrease in motivation. Analysis suggests there is a relationship between participant responses to the effect of NAPLAN on curriculum based on the characteristics of which State the teacher taught in, the socioeconomic status of the school and the school system in which they were employed (State, Catholic, and Independent).

The effects of NAPLAN: Teacher perceptions of the impact of NAPLAN on pedagogy and curriculum

This paper reports preliminary findings of a survey of in-service teachers in WA and SA conducted in 2012. Participants completed an online survey open to all teachers in WA and SA. The survey ran for three months from April to June 2012. One section of the survey asked teachers to report their perceptions of the impact that NAPLAN has had on the curriculum and pedagogy of their classroom and school. Two principal research questions were addressed in this preliminary analysis. First what are teacher perceptions of the effects on NAPLAN on curriculum and pedagogy? Second, are there any interaction effects between gender, socioeconomics status, location and school system on teachers perceptions? Statistical analyses examined one- and two-way MANOVA to assess main effects and interaction effects on teachers' global perceptions. These were followed by a series of exploratory one- and two-way ANOVA of specific survey items to suggest potential sources for differences among teachers from different socioeconomic regions, states and systems. Teachers report that they are either choosing or being instructed to teach to the test, that this results in less time being spent on other curriculum areas and that these effects contribute in a negative way on the engagement of students. This largely agrees with a body of international research that suggests that high-stakes literacy and numeracy tests often results in unintended consequences such as a narrow curriculum focus (Au, 2007), a return to teacher-centred instruction (Barret, 2009) and a decrease in motivation (Ryan & Wesinstein, 2009). Preliminary results from early survey respondents suggests there is a relationship between participant responses to the effect of NAPLAN on curriculum and pedagogy based on the characteristics of which State the teacher taught in, their perceptions of the socioeconomic status of the school and the school system in which they were employed (State, Catholic, and Independent).

Prevalence and characteristics of road traffic injuries among young drivers in Oman, 2009-2011

Objectives Studies from different parts of the world have indicated that the impact of road traffic incidents disproportionally affects young adults. Few known studies have been forthcoming from Arabian Gulf countries. Within Oman, a high proportion of the population is under the age of 20. Coupled with the drastic increase of motorization in recent years there is a need to understand the state of road safety among young people in Oman. The current research aimed to explore the prevalence and characteristics of road traffic injuries among young drivers aged 17-25 years. Methods Crash data from 2009-2011 was extracted from the Directorate General of Traffic, Royal Oman Police (ROP) database in Oman. The data was analyzed to explore the impact of road crashes on young people (17-25 years), the characteristics of young driver crashes and how these differ from older drivers and to identify key predictors of fatalities in young driver crashes. Results Overall, young people were over-represented in injuries and fatalities within the sample time period. While it is true that many young people in crashes were driving at the time, it was also evident that young people were often a victim in a crash caused by someone else. Thus, to reduce the impact of road crashes on young people, there is a need to generally address road safety within Oman. When young drivers were involved in crashes they were predominantly male. The types of crashes these drivers have can be broadly attributed to risk taking and inexperience. Speeding and night time driving were the key risk factors for fatalities. Conclusion The results highlight the need to address young driver safety in Oman. From these findings, the introduction of a graduated driver licensing system with night time driving restrictions could significantly improve young driver safety.