El PAN en las elecciones de 2012: entender la derrota desde el punto de vista de sus élites, un estudio de caso

México vivió en el año 2000 la cristalización su tránsito democrático con características excepcionales: un proceso de cambio pacífico y la derrota de un partido que gobernó más de 70 años. En el año 2000 el PAN gana las elecciones presidenciales con un 43% de los votos, un margen de ventaja de 7 puntos sobre el PRI y 26 sobre el PRD. En el 2012, alcanza sólo un 25% de los votos, 18 puntos menos con respecto a su victoria del 2000, cayendo al tercer lugar y quedando 12 puntos abajo del PRI, y seis abajo del PRD. Esta tesis analiza la vida de Acción Nacional, para entender su fracaso para consolidarse como un partido que habiendo sido exitoso como oposición y después de llegar a la presidencia de la República, no logra mantenerse el poder. Es vencido por el partido contra el que había luchado por décadas. Este es un estudio de caso crucial, que pretende dar luz, a partir del punto de vista de las élites partidistas, y utilizando el enfoque teórico de la sendero dependencia (path-dependence en inglés) del Nuevo Institucionalismo, sobre los diferentes factores que pueden ayudar a entender la derrota del PAN en las elecciones del 2012. El objetivo es analizar por qué el PAN no fue capaz de transformar el sistema político y de su aparato de gobierno, y no pudo tampoco modernizarse a sí mismo entendiendo el papel y el tipo de partido que debía ser ante un nuevo escenario político que se abría con la transición política en México...

¿Fue una buena idea crear nuevas instituciones en Irak para lidiar con los desplazamientos?

Las consecuencias políticas, humanitarias y de desarrollo de décadas de migraciones forzadas masivas forman parte de la herencia que los líderes políticos iraquíes actuales deben manejar. Y para eso necesitan disponer de las instituciones correctas con el objetivo de guiar a su país hacia un futuro más pacífico y estable.

Acceso al agua potable y al saneamiento. Una visión de género para avanzar en el desarrollo

Antecedentes/Objetivos: Las desigualdades de género y los serios problemas de cambio climático, atenúan la ya difícil viabilidad de los Objetivos de Desarrollo del Milenio (ODM) para 2015, con una evolución claramente insuficiente. El acceso al agua potable y al saneamiento (A/S) son esenciales para el cumplimiento de los derechos humanos (ONU-2010) y Agua y Género es una prioridad temática de ONU-Agua (2011), pero hay pocos estudios empíricos sobre la diferencia de impacto en la salud de las mujeres./Describir la evidencia científica internacional sobre las deficiencias de acceso al A/S y su impacto en la salud pública desde la perspectiva de género. Métodos: Revisión sistemática. Medline, Scopus y Embase, 2008-2012, Inglés, francés y español. Palabras claves “drinking water”/sanitation” and “women”/gender”. Incluidos estudios empíricos originales sobre deficiencias del A/S y salud de mujeres. Excluidos socioeconómicos/sociodemográficos, técnicos medioambientales, violencia sexual, conflictos armados y catástrofes. Clasificación: 1. Tema central de dos maneras: 1.1 Problemas/factores relacionados con el déficit A/S y 1.2. Número de ODM susceptibles de ser menoscabados o comprometidos, 2. Perspectiva de género (PG): (3 parámetros: Sexo/género como variable/dimensión clave, Desigualdad y Fomento participación/aplicabilidad para equidad de género en salud/empoderamiento) 3. Tipo de estudio y 4. Lugar de procedencia: Regiones OMS. Resultados: Identificados 174. Desestimados 149. Incluidos 25. Tema Central. Problemas/factores: enfermedades (sobre todo diarreicas): 8, accesibilidad: 6, calidad: 3, trasporte de agua: 3, inseguridad/angustia: 2, consecuencias 3: (absentismo escolar: 1, mortalidad materna: 1, e infantil: 1). ODM comprometido: sustento medio ambiente: 24, igualdad de género/autonomía: 14, pobreza/hambre: 13, salud materna: 9, VIH/SIDA, paludismo y otras enfermedades: 8, mortalidad infantil: 8, enseñanza 1ª: 5. Objetivos comprometidos/estudio mediana = 3. PG Valorados 20/25 artículos, 70% cumplen 1 o más parámetros. Tipo de estudio: Trasversal: 17, cohortes: 5, casos y controles: 2, ensayo aleatorio: 1. Procedencia: África: 12, Las Américas: 4, Asia Sudoriental: 2, Europa: 2, Mediterráneo Oriental: 2 y Pacífico Oriental: 1. Conclusiones: Se han encontrado escasos estudios pero focalizan bien los problemas derivados del déficit de acceso adecuado al A/S y ponen de manifiesto relevantes y significativos problemas en la salud de las mujeres. Los ODM suelen estar comprometidos de forma conjunta y la mortalidad infantil es una consecuencia grave de diarreas. La evidencia encontrada revela el difícil progreso de las mujeres hacia un desarrollo de los pueblos en equidad.

Emergent Brazil and the Curse of the ‘Hen’s Flight’. CEPS Working Document No. 379, 27 February 2013

The ‘Emergent Brazil’ growth model is reaching its limits. Its main engines have been slowing significantly since the beginning of the global financial and economic crisis. Even its much-praised predictable macroeconomic policy has been eroded by political interference. Inflationary pressures are growing and GDP performance is anaemic. As ominous, Brazil cannot compensate for its domestic deficiencies with an export drive. Commodity exports are suffering with the world economic slow-down and the manufacturing industries’ competitiveness is in sharp decline. Brazil has put all its trade negotiation eggs into the South American and WTO baskets, and now its export market share is threatened by the Doha Round paralysis, the Latin American Alianza del Pacífico, and the US-led initiatives for a Trans-Pacific Partnership and a trade and investment agreement with the EU. Paradoxically, this alarming situation opens a window of opportunity. There is a mounting national consensus on the need to tackle head-on the country’s and its industries’ lack of competitiveness. That means finding a solution to the much-decried ‘Brazil Cost’ and stimulating private-sector investment. It also entails an aggressive trade-negotiating stance in order to secure better access to foreign markets and to foster more competition in the domestic one. The most promising near-term goal would be the conclusion of the EU–Mercosur trade talks. A scenario to overcome the paralysis of these negotiations could trail two parallel paths: bilateral EU–Brazil agreements on ‘anything but trade’ combined with a sequencing of the EU–Mercosur talks where each member of the South American bloc could adopt faster or slower liberalisation commitments and schedules.

Catálogo de las lenguas de las naciones conocidas, y numeracion, division, y clases de estas segun la diversidad de sus idiomas y dialectos /

Contiene: T. I. Lenguas y naciones americanas (XVI, 396 p., [3] h. pleg.) -- t. II. Lenguas y naciones de las islas del los mares Pacífico e Indiano austral y oriental, y del continente de Asia (480 p., [2] h. pleg.) -- t. III. Lenguas y naciones europeas : Parte I, Naciones europeas advenedizas, y sus lenguas (359 p.) -- t. IV. Lenguas y naciones europeas : Parte II, Naciones europeas primitivas, sus lenguas matrices, y dialectos de éstos (343 p.) -- t. V. Lenguas y naciones europeas: naciones primitivas, sus lenguas matrices y dialectos de éstos (315 p.) -- t.VI. Lenguas y naciones europeas: naciones primitivas, sus lenguas matrices y dialectos de éstos (379 p., [3] h. pleg.)

Biblioteca del Comercio del Plata.

Edited by Florencio Varela.

Dinâmica das configurações de formação e inibição das chuvas no Rio Grande do Norte: caracterização hidroclimática do estado

This study aimed to evaluate the influence of the main meteorological mechanisms trainers and inhibitors of precipitation, and the interactions between different scales of operation, the spatial and temporal variability of the annual cycle of precipitation in the Rio Grande do Norte. Além disso, considerando as circunstâncias locais e regionais, criando assim uma base científica para apoiar ações futuras na gestão da demanda de água no Estado. Database from monthly precipitation of 45 years, ranging between 1963 and 2007, data provided by EMPARN. The methodology used to achieve the results was initially composed of descriptive statistical analysis of historical data to prove the stability of the series, were applied after, geostatistics tool for plotting maps of the variables, within the geostatistical we opted for by Kriging interpolation method because it was the method that showed the best results and minor errors. Among the results, we highlight the annual cycle of rainfall the State which is influenced by meteorological mechanisms of different spatial and temporal scales, where the main mechanisms cycle modulators are the Conference Intertropical Zone (ITCZ) acting since midFebruary to mid May throughout the state, waves Leste (OL), Lines of instability (LI), breeze systems and orographic rainfall acting mainly in the Coastal strip between February and July. Along with vortice of high levels (VCANs), Complex Mesoscale Convective (CCMs) and orographic rain in any region of the state mainly in spring and summer. In terms of larger scale phenomena stood out El Niño and La Niña, ENSO in the tropical Pacific basin. In La Niña episodes usually occur normal or rainy years, as upon the occurrence of prolonged periods of drought are influenced by EL NIÑO. In the Atlantic Ocean the standard Dipole also affects the intensity of the rainfall cycle in State. The cycle of rains in Rio Grande do Norte is divided into two periods, one comprising the regions West, Central and the Western Portion of the Wasteland Potiguar mesoregions of west Chapada Borborema, causing rains from midFebruary to mid-May and a second period of cycle, between February-July, where rains occur in mesoregions East and of the Wasteland, located upwind of the Chapada Borborema, both interspersed with dry periods without occurrence of significant rainfall and transition periods of rainy - dry and dry-rainy where isolated rainfall occur. Approximately 82% of the rainfall stations of the state which corresponds to 83.4% of the total area of Rio Grande do Norte, do not record annual volumes above 900 mm. Because the water supply of the State be maintained by small reservoirs already are in an advanced state of eutrophication, when the rains occur, act to wash and replace the water in the reservoirs, improving the quality of these, reducing the eutrophication process. When rain they do not significantly occur or after long periods of shortages, the process of eutrophication and deterioration of water in dams increased significantly. Through knowledge of the behavior of the annual cycle of rainfall can have an intimate knowledge of how it may be the tendency of rainy or prone to shortages following period, mainly observing the trends of larger scale phenomena

Modelos de dispersão para extremos de precipitação. Estudo de caso: o nordeste do Brasil

In this thesis used four different methods in order to diagnose the precipitation extremes on Northeastern Brazil (NEB): Generalized Linear Model s via logistic regression and Poisson, extreme value theory analysis via generalized extre me value (GEV) and generalized Pareto (GPD) distributions and Vectorial Generalized Linea r Models via GEV (MVLG GEV). The logistic regression and Poisson models were used to identify the interactions between the precipitation extremes and other variables based on the odds ratios and relative risks. It was found that the outgoing longwave radiation was the indicator variable for the occurrence of extreme precipitation on eastern, northern and semi arid NEB, and the relative humidity was verified on southern NEB. The GEV and GPD distribut ions (based on the 95th percentile) showed that the location and scale parameters were presented the maximum on the eastern and northern coast NEB, the GEV verified a maximum core on western of Pernambuco influenced by weather systems and topography. The GEV and GPD shape parameter, for most regions the data fitted by Weibull negative an d Beta distributions (ξ < 0) , respectively. The levels and return periods of GEV (GPD) on north ern Maranhão (centerrn of Bahia) may occur at least an extreme precipitation event excee ding over of 160.9 mm /day (192.3 mm / day) on next 30 years. The MVLG GEV model found tha t the zonal and meridional wind components, evaporation and Atlantic and Pacific se a surface temperature boost the precipitation extremes. The GEV parameters show the following results: a) location ( ), the highest value was 88.26 ± 6.42 mm on northern Maran hão; b) scale ( σ ), most regions showed positive values, except on southern of Maranhão; an d c) shape ( ξ ), most of the selected regions were adjusted by the Weibull negative distr ibution ( ξ < 0 ). The southern Maranhão and southern Bahia have greater accuracy. The level period, it was estimated that the centern of Bahia may occur at least an extreme precipitatio n event equal to or exceeding over 571.2 mm/day on next 30 years.

Análise da Indisciplina de uma Escola Básica Integrada à luz da teoria dos níveis de indisciplina de João Amado

Trabalho com o tema “A Relação da Indisciplina de uma Escola Básica Integrada no quadro da teoria dos níveis de indisciplina de João Amado” realizado no âmbito do Mestrado de Gestão, Avaliação e Supervisão Escolar. Para abordar este tema iremos começar por abordar os conceitos de indisciplina e de delinquência na escola, seguidamente iremos aprofundar as relações de controlo e de poder dentro da sala de aula. Posteriormente será abordada a problemática da dimensão das turmas através de estudos realizados em alguns dos países do anel de fogo do pacífico como a China, o Japão, entre outros. Depois iremos abordar o comportamento dos professores e alunos relacionado com a composição das turmas. Posteriormente será apresentada a investigação realizada sobre a indisciplina de uma Escola Básica Integrada da Região Autónoma dos Açores, onde vamos procurar analisar se existe alguma relação entre a forma como uma escola age relativamente à indisciplina e as investigações existentes, especificamente as investigações sobre a teoria dos níveis de indisciplina de João Amado tanto como ao nível do que é considerado indisciplina pela escola e se estão enquadrados com os níveis enunciados e compreender se as sanções correspondentes estão de acordo com a gravidade de acordo com cada um dos três níveis expostos por João Amado. Por fim vamos apresentar as nossas conclusões sobre o caso em estudo.

Análisis Crítico y Complejo de los discursos periodísticos verbovisuales entre Bolivia y Chile en el contexto de la demanda por la soberanía marítima boliviana

Los medios de prensa tienen un rol determinante en la construcción, legitimación y representación de distintas realidades socioculturales, las cuales a su vez generan lineamientos institucionalizados de unas identidades nacionales sobre otras, creando relaciones desiguales en base de prejuicios y estereotipos. Los países vecinos cuentan con historias de unidad y conflictos, pero el tiempo a veces no es suficiente para cerrar viejas heridas, como ocurre con la Guerra del Pacífico (18791883). En este contexto se analizaron las noticias de los medios con mayor injerencia a nivel país: La Razón (Bolivia) y El Mercurio (Chile), donde, por medio de una herramienta metodológica de Análisis Crítico y Complejo del Discurso Verbovisual, se buscó dilucidar los procesos de construcción discursiva de cada Estadonación y confirmar cómo éstos se mantienen a través del tiempo.

Discovery and settlement of Alaska coaster

Tsar Peter the Great ruled Russia between 1689 and 1725. Its domains, stretching from the Baltic Sea in the west to the Pacific Ocean in the east. From north to south, its empire stretching from the Arctic Ocean to the borders with China and India. Tsar Peter I tried to extend the geographical knowledge of his government and the rest of the world. He was also interested in the expansion of trade in Russia and in the control of trade routes. Feodor Luzhin and Ivan Yeverinov explored the eastern border of the Russian Empire, the trip between 1719 and 1721 and reported to the Tsar. They had crossed the peninsula of Kamchatka, from west to east and had traveled from the west coast of Kamchatka to the Kuril Islands. The information collected led to the first map of Kamchatka and the Kuril Islands. Tsar Peter ordered Bering surf the Russian Pacific coast, build ships and sail the seas north along the coast to regions of America. The second expedition found equal to those of the previous explorers difficulties. Two ships were eventually thrown away in Okhotsk in 1740. The explorers spent the winter of 1740-1741 stockpiling supplies and then navigate to Petropavlovsk. The two ships sailed eastward and did together until June 20, then separated by fog. After searching Chirikov and his boat for several days, Bering ordered the San Pedro continue to the northeast. There the Russian sailors first sighted Alaska. According to the log, "At 12:30 (pm July 17) in sight of snow-capped mountains and between them a high volcano." This finding came the day of St. Elijah and so named the mountain.

Estados Unidos y la guerra por el desarrollo: el control de la natalidad en Chile, 1960-1970

Bajo el paradigma de modernización y desarrollo norteamericano -y en un contexto de Guerra Fría-, durante la década de 1960 se adecuaron a la realidad chilena programas de control de natalidad que no sólo buscaron disminuir las altas tasas de mortalidad materno infantil, sino que además respondieron al proyecto de seguridad hemisférica norteamericana de contención a posibles revoluciones populares en países del Tercer Mundo.

Contraprestaciones por los servicios financieros del Consulado de México y sus miembros: los fondos extraordinarios para la guerra contra Gran Bretaña, 1779-1783

Nueva España aportó la mayor parte de los recursos que sostuvieron a las fuerzas armadas españolas durante la guerra contra Gran Bretaña que se desarrolló en el Caribe entre 1779 y 1783. En el artículo se analizan las medidas a las que recurrieron las autoridades reales para obtener recursos extraordinarios del Consulado y varios mercaderes de la ciudad de México. Asimismo se exponen algunas de las contraprestaciones que negociaron a cambio de dichos servicios financieros y se plantean diversas hipótesis acerca de los motivos económicos, sociales y políticos que los llevaron a colaborar con el monarca, teniendo en cuenta los negocios que realizaban durante el conflicto bélico y la forma en que eran afectados por la reciente apertura comercial.

Controversy over the Taxation of Recogidas in the Philippines in the mid- 18th Century. The Case of Santa Rita de Pasig’s Spiritual Absorption

This article studies the house of seclusion established for devout Indian and mestizo laywomen in the town of Pasig in 1740, and the dispute over tribute obligations that affected retreated or “pious” women. Founded outside of the Royal Patronato, this house of seclusion was extraordinarily attractive as a place for voluntary retreat and as an educational center. The dispute over tribute payments brought to light misgivings and conflicts of interest between the parties involved, while revealing the fundamental problem: the traditionally undefined juridical status of this type of establishment on the Islands. The solution given to the problem (tribute exemption) was to be extended to other similar centers in the Philippines. This article, realized with the use of unpublished documentation from the General Archives of the Indies, contributes therefore to our knowledge of the world of women in the Philippine archipelago; an ambit of great complexity that, as of yet, has been insufficiently studied.