Carbon dioxide and climate impulse response functions for the computation of greenhouse gas metrics: a multi-model analysis

The responses of carbon dioxide (CO2) and other climate variables to an emission pulse of CO2 into the atmosphere are often used to compute the Global Warming Potential (GWP) and Global Temperature change Potential (GTP), to characterize the response timescales of Earth System models, and to build reduced-form models. In this carbon cycle-climate model intercomparison project, which spans the full model hierarchy, we quantify responses to emission pulses of different magnitudes injected under different conditions. The CO2 response shows the known rapid decline in the first few decades followed by a millennium-scale tail. For a 100 Gt-C emission pulse added to a constant CO2 concentration of 389 ppm, 25 ± 9% is still found in the atmosphere after 1000 yr; the ocean has absorbed 59 ± 12% and the land the remainder (16 ± 14%). The response in global mean surface air temperature is an increase by 0.20 ± 0.12 °C within the first twenty years; thereafter and until year 1000, temperature decreases only slightly, whereas ocean heat content and sea level continue to rise. Our best estimate for the Absolute Global Warming Potential, given by the time-integrated response in CO2 at year 100 multiplied by its radiative efficiency, is 92.5 × 10−15 yr W m−2 per kg-CO2. This value very likely (5 to 95% confidence) lies within the range of (68 to 117) × 10−15 yr W m−2 per kg-CO2. Estimates for time-integrated response in CO2 published in the IPCC First, Second, and Fourth Assessment and our multi-model best estimate all agree within 15% during the first 100 yr. The integrated CO2 response, normalized by the pulse size, is lower for pre-industrial conditions, compared to present day, and lower for smaller pulses than larger pulses. In contrast, the response in temperature, sea level and ocean heat content is less sensitive to these choices. Although, choices in pulse size, background concentration, and model lead to uncertainties, the most important and subjective choice to determine AGWP of CO2 and GWP is the time horizon.

Ocean (De)oxygenation Across the Last Deglaciation: Insights for the Future

Anthropogenic warming is expected to drive oxygen out of the ocean as the water temperature rises and the rate of exchange between subsurface waters and the atmosphere slows due to enhanced upper ocean density stratification. Observations from recent decades are tantalizingly consistent with this prediction, though these changes remain subtle in the face of natural variability. Earth system model projections unanimously predict a long-term decrease in the global ocean oxygen inventory, but show regional discrepancies, particularly in the most oxygen-depleted waters, owing to the complex interplay between oxygen supply pathways and oxygen consumption. The geological record provides an orthogonal perspective, showing how the oceanic oxygen content varied in response to prior episodes of climate change. These past changes were much slower than the current, anthropogenic change, but can help to appraise sensitivities, and point toward potentially dominant mechanisms of change. Consistent with the model projections, marine sediments recorded an overall expansion of low-oxygen waters in the upper ocean as it warmed at the end of the last ice age. This expansion was not linearly related with temperature, though, but reached a deoxygenation extreme midway through the warming. Meanwhile, the deep ocean became better oxygenated, opposite the general expectation. These observations require that significant changes in apparent oxygen utilization occurred, suggesting that they will also be important in the future.

Daily ozone cycle in the stratosphere: global, regional and seasonal behaviour modelled with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model

The Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) is utilised to study the daily ozone cycle and underlying photochemical and dynamical processes. The analysis is focused on the daily ozone cycle in the middle stratosphere at 5 hPa where satellite-based trend estimates of stratospheric ozone are most biased by diurnal sampling effects and drifting satellite orbits. The simulated ozone cycle shows a minimum after sunrise and a maximum in the late afternoon. Further, a seasonal variation of the daily ozone cycle in the stratosphere was found. Depending on season and latitude, the peak-to-valley difference of the daily ozone cycle varies mostly between 3 and 5% (0.4 ppmv) with respect to the midnight ozone volume mixing ratio. The maximal variation of 15% (0.8 ppmv) is found at the polar circle in summer. The global pattern of the strength of the daily ozone cycle is mainly governed by the solar zenith angle and the sunshine duration. In addition, we find synoptic-scale variations in the strength of the daily ozone cycle. These variations are often anti-correlated to regional temperature anomalies and are due to the temperature dependence of the rate coefficients k2 and k3 of the Chapman cycle reactions. Further, the NOx catalytic cycle counteracts the accumulation of ozone during daytime and leads to an anti-correlation between anomalies in NOx and the strength of the daily ozone cycle. Similarly, ozone recombines with atomic oxygen which leads to an anti-correlation between anomalies in ozone abundance and the strength of the daily ozone cycle. At higher latitudes, an increase of the westerly (easterly) wind cause a decrease (increase) in the sunshine duration of an air parcel leading to a weaker (stronger) daily ozone cycle.

Influence of the Central American Seaway and Drake Passage on ocean circulation and neodymium isotopes: A model study

The sensitivity of the neodymium isotopic composition (ϵNd) to tectonic rearrangements of seaways is investigated using an Earth System Model of Intermediate Complexity. The shoaling and closure of the Central American Seaway (CAS) is simulated, as well as the opening and deepening of Drake Passage (DP). Multiple series of equilibrium simulations with various intermediate depths are performed for both seaways, providing insight into ϵNd and circulation responses to progressive throughflow evolutions. Furthermore, the sensitivity of these responses to the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and the neodymium boundary source is examined. Modeled ϵNd changes are compared to sediment core and ferromanganese (Fe-Mn) crust data. The model results indicate that the North Atlantic ϵNd response to the CAS shoaling is highly dependent on the AMOC state, i.e., on the AMOC strength before the shoaling to shallow depths (preclosure). Three scenarios based on different AMOC forcings are discussed, of which the model-data agreement favors a shallow preclosure (Miocene) AMOC (∼6 Sv). The DP opening causes a rather complex circulation response, resulting in an initial South Atlantic ϵNd decrease preceding a larger increase. This feature may be specific to our model setup, which induces a vigorous CAS throughflow that is strongly anticorrelated to the DP throughflow. In freshwater experiments following the DP deepening, ODP Site 1090 is mainly influenced by AMOC and DP throughflow changes, while ODP Site 689 is more strongly influenced by Southern Ocean Meridional Overturning Circulation and CAS throughflow changes. The boundary source uncertainty is largest for shallow seaways and at shallow sites.

Stability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation: A model intercomparison.

The evolution of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) in 30 models of varying complexity is examined under four distinct Representative Concentration Pathways. The models include 25 Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs) or Earth System Models (ESMs) that submitted simulations in support of the 5th phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and 5 Earth System Models of Intermediate Complexity (EMICs). While none of the models incorporated the additional effects of ice sheet melting, they all projected very similar behaviour during the 21st century. Over this period the strength of MOC reduced by a best estimate of 22% (18%–25%; 5%–95% confidence limits) for RCP2.6, 26% (23%–30%) for RCP4.5, 29% (23%–35%) for RCP6.0 and 40% (36%–44%) for RCP8.5. Two of the models eventually realized a slow shutdown of the MOC under RCP8.5, although no model exhibited an abrupt change of the MOC. Through analysis of the freshwater flux across 30°–32°S into the Atlantic, it was found that 40% of the CMIP5 models were in a bistable regime of the MOC for the duration of their RCP integrations. The results support previous assessments that it is very unlikely that the MOC will undergo an abrupt change to an off state as a consequence of global warming.

Impact of a Reduced Arctic Sea Ice Cover on Ocean and Atmospheric Properties

The Arctic sea ice cover declined over the last few decades and reached a record minimum in 2007, with a slight recovery thereafter. Inspired by this the authors investigate the response of atmospheric and oceanic properties to a 1-yr period of reduced sea ice cover. Two ensembles of equilibrium and transient simulations are produced with the Community Climate System Model. A sea ice change is induced through an albedo change of 1 yr. The sea ice area and thickness recover in both ensembles after 3 and 5 yr, respectively. The sea ice anomaly leads to changes in ocean temperature and salinity to a depth of about 200 m in the Arctic Basin. Further, the salinity and temperature changes in the surface layer trigger a “Great Salinity Anomaly” in the North Atlantic that takes roughly 8 yr to travel across the North Atlantic back to high latitudes. In the atmosphere the changes induced by the sea ice anomaly do not last as long as in the ocean. The response in the transient and equilibrium simulations, while similar overall, differs in specific regional and temporal details. The surface air temperature increases over the Arctic Basin and the anomaly extends through the whole atmospheric column, changing the geopotential height fields and thus the storm tracks. The patterns of warming and thus the position of the geopotential height changes vary in the two ensembles. While the equilibrium simulation shifts the storm tracks to the south over the eastern North Atlantic and Europe, the transient simulation shifts the storm tracks south over the western North Atlantic and North America. The authors propose that the overall reduction in sea ice cover is important for producing ocean anomalies; however, for atmospheric anomalies the regional location of the sea ice anomalies is more important. While observed trends in Arctic sea ice are large and exceed those simulated by comprehensive climate models, there is little evidence based on this particular model that the seasonal loss of sea ice (e.g., as occurred in 2007) would constitute a threshold after which the Arctic would exhibit nonlinear, irreversible, or strongly accelerated sea ice loss. Caution should be exerted when extrapolating short-term trends to future sea ice behavior.

The unstable CO2 feedback cycle on ocean planets

Ocean planets are volatile-rich planets, not present in our Solar system, which are thought to be dominated by deep, global oceans. This results in the formation of high-pressure water ice, separating the planetary crust from the liquid ocean and, thus, also from the atmosphere. Therefore, instead of a carbonate-silicate cycle like on the Earth, the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration is governed by the capability of the ocean to dissolve carbon dioxide (CO2). In our study, we focus on the CO2 cycle between the atmosphere and the ocean which determines the atmospheric CO2 content. The atmospheric amount of CO2 is a fundamental quantity for assessing the potential habitability of the planet's surface because of its strong greenhouse effect, which determines the planetary surface temperature to a large degree. In contrast to the stabilizing carbonate-silicate cycle regulating the long-term CO2 inventory of the Earth atmosphere, we find that the CO2 cycle feedback on ocean planets is negative and has strong destabilizing effects on the planetary climate. By using a chemistry model for oceanic CO2 dissolution and an atmospheric model for exoplanets, we show that the CO2 feedback cycle can severely limit the extension of the habitable zone for ocean planets.

Northwards and eastwards velocities extracted from a historical run (for the year 2000) of the UVic Earth System Climate Model of Weaver et al. (2001)

This study provides a theoretical assessment of the potential bias due to differential lateral transport on multi-proxy studies based on a range of marine microfossils. Microfossils preserved in marine sediments are at the centre of numerous proxies for paleoenvironmental reconstructions. The precision of proxies is based on the assumption that they accurately represent the overlying watercolumn properties and faunas. Here we assess the possibility of a syn-depositional bias in sediment assemblages caused by horizontal drift in the water column, due to differential settling velocities of sedimenting particles based on their shape, size and density, and due to differences in current velocities. Specifically we calculate the post-mortem lateral transport undergone by planktic foraminifera and a range of other biological proxy carriers (diatoms, radiolaria and fecal pellets transporting coccolithophores) in several regions with high current velocities. We find that lateral transport of different planktic foraminiferal species is minimal due to high settling velocities. No significant shape- or size-dependent sorting occurs before reaching the sediment, making planktic foraminiferal ideal proxy carriers. In contrast, diatoms, radiolaria and fecal pellets can be transported up to 500km in some areas. For example in the Agulhas current, transport can lead to differences of up to 2°C in temperature reconstructions between different proxies in response to settling velocities. Therefore, sediment samples are likely to contain different proportions of local and imported particles, decreasing the precision of proxies based on these groups and the accuracy of the temperature reconstruction.

Ocean temperature response to idealized Gleissberg and de Vries solar cycles in a comprehensive climate model

The ~90-year Gleissberg and ~200-year de Vries cycles have been identified as two distinctive quasi-periodic components of Holocene solar activity. Evidence exists for the impact of such multi-decadal to centennial-scale variability in total solar irradiance (TSI) on climate, but concerning the ocean, this evidence is mainly restricted to the surface response. Here we use a comprehensive global climate model to study the impact of idealized solar forcing, representing the Gleissberg and de Vries cycles, on global ocean potential temperature at different depth levels, after a recent proxy record indicates a signal of TSI anomalies in the northeastern Atlantic at mid-depth. Potential impacts of TSI anomalies on deeper oceanic levels are climatically relevant due to their possible effect on ocean circulation by altering water mass characteristics. Simulated solar anomalies are shown to penetrate the ocean down to at least deep-water levels. Despite the fact that the two forcing periods differ only by a factor of ~2, the spatial pattern of response is significantly distinctive between the experiments, suggesting different mechanisms for solar signal propagation. These are related to advection by North Atlantic Deep Water flow (200-year forcing), and barotropic adjustment in the South Atlantic in response to a latitudinal shift of the westerly wind belt (90-year forcing).

Modelled global ocean temperature from 6 ka to present

We compare the ocean temperature evolution of the Holocene as simulated by climate models and reconstructed from marine temperature proxies. This site provides informations about the Holocene temperature trends as simulated by the models. We use transient simulations from a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model, as well as an ensemble of time slice simulations from the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project. The general pattern of sea surface temperature (SST) in the models shows a high latitude cooling and a low latitude warming. The proxy dataset comprises a global compilation of marine alkenone- and Mg/Ca-derived SST estimates. Independently of the choice of the climate model, we observe significant mismatches between modelled and estimated SST amplitudes in the trends for the last 6000 years. Alkenone-based SST records show a similar pattern as the simulated annual mean SSTs, but the simulated SST trends underestimate the alkenone-based SST trends by a factor of two to five. For Mg/Ca, no significant relationship between model simulations and proxy reconstructions can be detected. We tested if such discrepancies can be caused by too simplistic interpretations of the proxy data. We tested different seasons and depths in the model to compare the proxy data trends, and can reconcile only part of the mismatches on a regional scale. We therefore considered the additional environmental factor changes in the planktonic organisms' habitat depth and a time-shift in the recording season to diagnose whether invoking those environmental factors can help reconciling the proxy records and the model simulations. We find that invoking shifts in the living season and habitat depth can remove some of the model-data discrepancies in SST trends. Regardless whether such adjustments in the environmental parameters during the Holocene are realistic, they indicate that when modeled temperature trends are set up to allow drastic shifts in the ecological behavior of planktonic organisms, they do not capture the full range of reconstructed SST trends. Our findings indicate that climate model and reconstructed temperature trends are to a large degree only qualitatively comparable, thus providing a challenge for the interpretation of proxy data as well as the models' sensitivity to orbital forcing.

Altered neurotransmitter function in CO2-exposed stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus): a temperate model species for ocean acidification research

Studies on the consequences of ocean acidification for the marine ecosystem have revealed behavioural changes in coral reef fishes exposed to sustained near-future CO2 levels. The changes have been linked to altered function of GABAergic neurotransmitter systems, because the behavioural alterations can be reversed rapidly by treatment with the GABAA receptor antagonist gabazine. Characterization of the molecular mechanisms involved would be greatly aided if these can be examined in a well-characterized model organism with a sequenced genome. It was recently shown that CO2-induced behavioural alterations are not confined to tropical species, but also affect the three-spined stickleback, although an involvement of the GABAA receptor was not examined. Here, we show that loss of lateralization in the stickleback can be restored rapidly and completely by gabazine treatment. This points towards a worrying universality of disturbed GABAA function after high-CO2 exposure in fishes from tropical to temperate marine habitats. Importantly, the stickleback is a model species with a sequenced and annotated genome, which greatly facilitates future studies on underlying molecular mechanisms.