Testing market efficiency: Evidence from the NFL sports betting market

This article examines the efficiency of the National Football League (NFL) betting market. The standard ordinary least squares (OLS) regression methodology is replaced by a probit model. This circumvents potential econometric problems, and allows us to implement more sophisticated betting strategies where bets are placed only when there is a relatively high probability of success. In-sample tests indicate that probit-based betting strategies generate statistically significant profits. Whereas the profitability of a number of these betting strategies is confirmed by out-of-sample testing, there is some inconsistency among the remaining out-of-sample predictions. Our results also suggest that widely documented inefficiencies in this market tend to dissipate over time.

A two-dimensional fuzzy random model of soil pore structure

A new conceptual model for soil pore-solid structure is formalized. Soil pore-solid structure is proposed to comprise spatially abutting elements each with a value which is its membership to the fuzzy set ''pore,'' termed porosity. These values have a range between zero (all solid) and unity (all pore). Images are used to represent structures in which the elements are pixels and the value of each is a porosity. Two-dimensional random fields are generated by allocating each pixel a porosity by independently sampling a statistical distribution. These random fields are reorganized into other pore-solid structural types by selecting parent points which have a specified local region of influence. Pixels of larger or smaller porosity are aggregated about the parent points and within the region of interest by controlled swapping of pixels in the image. This creates local regions of homogeneity within the random field. This is similar to the process known as simulated annealing. The resulting structures are characterized using one-and two-dimensional variograms and functions describing their connectivity. A variety of examples of structures created by the model is presented and compared. Extension to three dimensions presents no theoretical difficulties and is currently under development.

Crystal structure at 1.1 angstrom resolution of alpha-conotoxin PnIB: Comparison with alpha-conotoxins PnIA and GI

Conotoxins are small, cysteine-rich peptides isolated from the venom of Conus spp. of predatory marine snails, which selectively target specific receptors and ion channels critical to the functioning of the neuromuscular system. alpha-Conotoxins PnIA and PnIB are both 16-residue peptides (differing in sequence at only two positions) isolated from the molluscivorous snail Conus pennaceus. In contrast to the muscle-selective alpha-conotoxin GI from Conus geographus, PnIA and PnIB block the neuronal nicotinic acetylcholine receptor (nAChR). Here, we describe the crystal structure of PnIB, solved at a resolution of 1.1 Angstrom and phased using the Shake-and-Bake direct methods program. PnIB crystals are orthorhombic and belong to the space group P2(1)2(1)2(1) with the following unit cell dimensions: a = 14.6 Angstrom, b = 26.1 Angstrom, and c = 29.2 Angstrom. The final refined structure of alpha-conotoxin PnIB includes all 16 residues plus 23 solvent molecules and has an overall R-factor of 14.7% (R-free of 15.9%). The crystal structures of the alpha-conotoxins PnIB and PnIA are solved from different crystal forms, with different solvent contents. Comparison of the structures reveals them to be very similar, showing that the unique backbone and disulfide architecture is not strongly influenced by crystal lattice constraints or solvent interactions. This finding supports the notion that this structural scaffold is a rigid support for the presentation of important functional groups. The structures of PnIB and PnIA differ in their shape and surface charge distribution from that of GI.

Targeted drug delivery to the skin and deeper tissues: Role of physiology, solute structure and disease

1. Drug delivery through the skin has been used to target the epidermis, dermis and deeper tissues and for systemic delivery, The major barrier for the transport of drugs through the skin is the stratum corneum, with most transport occurring through the intercellular region, The polarity of the intercellular region appears to be similar to butanol, with the diffusion of solutes being hindered by saturable hydrogen bonding to the polar head groups of the ceramides, fatty acids and other intercellular lipids, Accordingly, the permeability of the more lipophilic solutes is greatest from aqueous solutions, whereas polar solute permeability is favoured by hydrocarbon-based vehicles. 2. The skin is capable of metabolizing many substances and, through its microvasculature, limits the transport of most substances into regions below the dermis. 3. Although the flux of solutes through the skin should be identical for different vehicles when the solute exists as a saturated solution, the fluxes vary in accordance with the skin penetration enhancement properties of the vehicle. It is therefore desirable that the regulatory standards required for the bioequivalence of topical products include skin studies. 4. Deep tissue penetration can be related to solute protein binding, solute molecular size and dermal blood flow. 5. Iontophoresis is a promising area of skin drug delivery, especially for ionized solutes and when a rapid effect is required. 6. In general, psoriasis and other skin diseases facilitate drug delivery through the skin. 7. It is concluded that the variability in skin permeability remains an obstacle in optimizing drug delivery by this route.

The structure of versutoxin (delta-atracotoxin-Hv1) provides insights into the binding of site 3 neurotoxins to the voltage-gated sodium channel

Background: Versutoxin (delta-ACTX-Hv1) is the major component of the venom of the Australian Blue Mountains funnel web spider, Hadronyche versuta. delta-ACTX-Hv1 produces potentially fatal neurotoxic symptoms in primates by slowing the inactivation of voltage-gated sodium channels; delta-ACTX-Hv1 is therefore a useful tool for studying sodium channel function. We have determined the three-dimensional structure of delta ACTX-Hv1 as the first step towards understanding the molecular basis of its interaction with these channels. Results: The solution structure of delta-ACTX-Hv1, determined using NMR spectroscopy, comprises a core beta region containing a triple-stranded antiparallel beta sheet, a thumb-like extension protruding from the beta region and a C-terminal 3(10) helix that is appended to the beta domain by virtue of a disulphide bond. The beta region contains a cystine knot motif similar to that seen in other neurotoxic polypeptides. The structure shows homology with mu-agatoxin-l, a spider toxin that also modifies the inactivation kinetics of vertebrate voltage-gated sodium channels. More surprisingly, delta-ACTX-Hv1 shows both sequence and structural homology with gurmarin, a plant polypeptide. This similarity leads us to suggest that the sweet-taste suppression elicited by gurmarin may result from an interaction with one of the downstream ion channels involved in sweet-taste transduction. Conclusions: delta-ACTX-Hv1 shows no structural homology with either sea anemone or alpha-scorpion toxins, both of which also modify the inactivation kinetics of voltage-gated sodium channels by interacting with channel recognition site 3. However, we have shown that delta-ACTX-Hv1 contains charged residues that are topologically related to those implicated in the binding of sea anemone and alpha-scorpion toxins to mammalian voltage-gated sodium channels, suggesting similarities in their mode of interaction with these channels.

Comments on the Drinfeld realization of the quantum affine superalgebra U-q[gl(m backslash n)(1)] and its Hopf algebra structure

By generalizing the Reshetikhin and Semenov-Tian-Shansky construction to supersymmetric cases, we obtain the Drinfeld current realization for the quantum affine superalgebra U-q[gl(m\n)((1))]. We find a simple coproduct for the quantum current generators and establish the Hopf algebra structure of this super current algebra.

Effect of temporal lobe structure volume on memory in elderly depressed patients

Objective: To compare the volume of the hippocampus and parahippocampal gyrus in elderly individuals with and without depressive disorders, and to determine whether the volumes of these regions correlate with scores on memory tests. Method: Clinical and demographic differences, as well as differences in regional gray matter volumes, were assessed in 48 elderly patients with depressive disorders and 31 control subjects. Brain (structural MRI) scans were processed using statistical parametric mapping and voxel-based morphometry. Cognitive tests were administered to subjects in both groups. Results: There were no between-group gray matter volume differences in the hippocampus or parahippocampal gyrus. In the elderly depressed group only, the volume of the left parahippocampal gyrus correlated with scores on the delayed naming portion of the visual verbal learning test. There were also significant direct correlations in depressed subjects between the volumes of the left hippocampus, right and left parahippocampal gyrus and immediate recall scores on verbal episodic memory tests and visual learning tests. In the control group, there were direct correlations only between overall cognitive performance (as assessed with the MMSE) and the volume of right hippocampus, and between the total score on the visual verbal learning test and the volume of the right and left parahippocampal gyrus. Conclusions: These findings highlight different patterns of relationship between cognitive performance and volumes of medial temporal structures in depressed individuals and healthy elderly subjects. The direct correlation between delayed visual verbal memory recall scores with left parahippocampal volumes specifically in elderly depressed individuals provides support to the view that depression in elderly populations may be a risk factor for dementia. (C) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.