Seasonal forecasts of tropical cyclone activity in a high-atmospheric-resolution coupled prediction system

Seasonal forecast skill of the basinwide and regional tropical cyclone (TC) activity in an experimental coupled prediction system based on the ECMWF System 4 is assessed. As part of a collaboration between the Center for Ocean–Land–Atmosphere Studies (COLA) and the ECMWF called Project Minerva, the system is integrated at the atmospheric horizontal spectral resolutions of T319, T639, and T1279. Seven-month hindcasts starting from 1 May for the years 1980–2011 are produced at all three resolutions with at least 15 ensemble members. The Minerva system demonstrates statistically significant skill for retrospective forecasts of TC frequency and accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) in the North Atlantic (NA), eastern North Pacific (EP), and western North Pacific. While the highest scores overall are achieved in the North Pacific, the skill in the NA appears to be limited by an overly strong influence of the tropical Pacific variability. Higher model resolution improves skill scores for the ACE and, to a lesser extent, the TC frequency, even though the influence of large-scale climate variations on these TC activity measures is largely independent of resolution changes. The biggest gain occurs in transition from T319 to T639. Significant skill in regional TC forecasts is achieved over broad areas of the Northern Hemisphere. The highest-resolution hindcasts exhibit additional locations with skill in the NA and EP, including land-adjacent areas. The feasibility of regional intensity forecasts is assessed. In the presence of the coupled model biases, the benefits of high resolution for seasonal TC forecasting may be underestimated.

Decadal predictability of regional scale wind speed and wind energy potentials over Central Europe

Decadal predictions on timescales from one year to one decade are gaining importance since this time frame falls within the planning horizon of politics, economy and society. The present study examines the decadal predictability of regional wind speed and wind energy potentials in three generations of the MiKlip (‘Mittelfristige Klimaprognosen’) decadal prediction system. The system is based on the global Max-Planck-Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM), and the three generations differ primarily in the ocean initialisation. Ensembles of uninitialised historical and yearly initialised hindcast experiments are used to assess the forecast skill for 10 m wind speeds and wind energy output (Eout) over Central Europe with lead times from one year to one decade. With this aim, a statistical-dynamical downscaling (SDD) approach is used for the regionalisation. Its added value is evaluated by comparison of skill scores for MPI-ESM large-scale wind speeds and SDD-simulated regional wind speeds. All three MPI-ESM ensemble generations show some forecast skill for annual mean wind speed and Eout over Central Europe on yearly and multi-yearly time scales. This forecast skill is mostly limited to the first years after initialisation. Differences between the three ensemble generations are generally small. The regionalisation preserves and sometimes increases the forecast skills of the global runs but results depend on lead time and ensemble generation. Moreover, regionalisation often improves the ensemble spread. Seasonal Eout skills are generally lower than for annual means. Skill scores are lowest during summer and persist longest in autumn. A large-scale westerly weather type with strong pressure gradients over Central Europe is identified as potential source of the skill for wind energy potentials, showing a similar forecast skill and a high correlation with Eout anomalies. These results are promising towards the establishment of a decadal prediction system for wind energy applications over Central Europe.

Moisture transport and intraseasonal variability in the South America monsoon system

This paper examines moisture transport on intraseasonal timescales over the continent and over the South Atlantic convergence zone (SACZ) during the South America (SA) summer monsoon. Combined Empirical Orthogonal Function analysis (EOFc) of Global Precipitation Climatology Project pentad precipitation, specific humidity, air temperature, zonal and meridional winds at 850 hPa (NCEP/NCAR reanalysis) are performed to identify the large-scale variability of the South America monsoon system and the SACZ. The first EOFc was used as a large-scale index for the South American monsoon (LISAM), whereas the second EOFc characterized the SACZ. LISAM (SACZ) index showed spectral variance on 30-90 (15-20) days and were both band filtered (10-100 days). Intraseasonal wet anomalies were defined when LISAM and SACZ anomalies were above the 75th percentile of their respective distribution. LISAM and SACZ wet events were examined independently of each other and when they occur simultaneously. LISAM wet events were observed with the amplification of wave activity in the Northern Hemisphere and the enhancement of northwesterly cross-equatorial moisture transport over tropical continental SA. Enhanced SACZ was observed with moisture transport from the extratropics of the Southern Hemisphere. Simultaneous LISAM and SACZ wet events are associated with cross-equatorial moisture transport along with moisture transport from Subtropical Southwestern Atlantic.

Photovoltaic System Design for a Contaminated Area in Falun – Comparison of South and East- West Layout

In this thesis the solar part of a large grid-connected photovoltaic system design has been done. The main purpose was to size and optimize the system and to present figures helping to evaluate the prospective project rationality, which can potentially be constructed on a contaminated area in Falun. The methodology consisted in PV market study and component selection, site analysis and defining suitable area for solar installation; and system configuration optimization based on PVsyst simulations and Levelized Cost of Energy calculations. The procedure was mainly divided on two parts, preliminary and detailed sizing. In the first part the objective was complex, which included the investigation of the most profitable component combination and system optimization due to tilt and row distance. It was done by simulating systems with different components and orientations, which were sized for the same 100kW inverter in order to make a fair comparison. For each simulated result a simplified LCOE calculation procedure was applied. The main results of this part show that with the price of 0.43 €/Wp thin-film modules were the most cost effective solution for the case with a great advantage over crystalline type in terms of financial attractiveness. From the results of the preliminary study it was possible to select the optimal system configuration, which was used in the detailed sizing as a starting point. In this part the PVsyst simulations were run, which included full scale system design considering near shadings created by factory buildings. Additionally, more complex procedure of LCOE calculation has been used here considered insurances, maintenance, time value of money and possible cost reduction due to the system size. Two system options were proposed in final results; both cover the same area of 66000 m2. The first one represents an ordinary South faced design with 1.1 MW nominal power, which was optimized for the highest performance. According to PVsyst simulations, this system should produce 1108 MWh/year with the initial investment of 835,000 € and 0.056 €/kWh LCOE. The second option has an alternative East-West orientation, which allows to cover 80% of occupied ground and consequently have 6.6 MW PV nominal power. The system produces 5388 MWh/year costs about 4500,000 € and delivers electricity with the same price of 0.056 €/kWh. Even though the EW solution has 20% lower specific energy production, it benefits mainly from lower relative costs for inverters, mounting and annual maintenance expenses. After analyzing the performance results, among the two alternatives none of the systems showed a clear superiority so there was no optimal system proposed. Both, South and East-West solutions have own advantages and disadvantages in terms of energy production profile, configuration, installation and maintenance. Furthermore, the uncertainty due to cost figures assumptions restricted the results veracity.

Demonstration of Solar Heating and Cooling System using Sorption Integrated Solar Thermal Collectors

Producing cost-competitive small and medium-sized solar cooling systems is currently a significant challenge. Due to system complexity, extensive engineering, design and equipment costs; the installation costs of solar thermal cooling systems are prohibitively high. In efforts to overcome these limitations, a novel sorption heat pump module has been developed and directly integrated into a solar thermal collector. The module comprises a fully encapsulated sorption tube containing hygroscopic salt sorbent and water as a refrigerant, sealed under vacuum with no moving parts. A 5.6m2 aperture area outdoor laboratory-scale system of sorption module integrated solar collectors was installed in Stockholm, Sweden and evaluated under constant re-cooling and chilled fluid return temperatures in order to assess collector performance. Measured average solar cooling COP was 0.19 with average cooling powers between 120 and 200 Wm-2 collector aperture area. It was observed that average collector cooling power is constant at daily insolation levels above 3.6 kWhm-2 with the cooling energy produced being proportional to solar insolation. For full evaluation of an integrated sorption collector solar heating and cooling system, under the umbrella of a European Union project for technological innovation, a 180 m2 large-scale demonstration system has been installed in Karlstad, Sweden. Results from the installation commissioned in summer 2014 with non-optimised control strategies showed average electrical COP of 10.6 and average cooling powers between 140 and 250 Wm-2 collector aperture area. Optimisation of control strategies, heat transfer fluid flows through the collectors and electrical COP will be carried out in autumn 2014.

Transmission system expansion planning by an extended genetic algorithm

The paper presents an extended genetic algorithm for solving the optimal transmission network expansion planning problem. Two main improvements have been introduced in the genetic algorithm: (a) initial population obtained by conventional optimisation based methods; (b) mutation approach inspired in the simulated annealing technique, the proposed method is general in the sense that it does not assume any particular property of the problem being solved, such as linearity or convexity. Excellent performance is reported in the test results section of the paper for a difficult large-scale real-life problem: a substantial reduction in investment costs has been obtained with regard to previous solutions obtained via conventional optimisation methods and simulated annealing algorithms; statistical comparison procedures have been employed in benchmarking different versions of the genetic algorithm and simulated annealing methods.

Small-scale mining: a new entrepreneurial approach

Includes bibliography

Design of a labVIEW system applied to predictive maintenance

The implementation of vibration analysis techniques based on virtual instrumentation has spread increasingly in the academic and industrial branch, since the use of any software for this type of analysis brings good results at low cost. Among the existing software for programming and creation of virtual instruments, the LabVIEW was chosen for this project. This software has good interface with the method of graphical programming. In this project, it was developed a system of rotating machine condition monitoring. This monitoring system is applied in a test stand, simulating large scale applications, such as in hydroelectric, nuclear and oil exploration companies. It was initially used a test stand, where an instrumentation for data acquisition was inserted, composed of accelerometers and inductive proximity sensors. The data collection system was structured on the basis of an NI 6008 A/D converter of National Instruments. An electronic circuit command was developed through the A/D converter for a remote firing of the test stand. The equipment monitoring is performed through the data collected from the sensors. The vibration signals collected by accelerometers are processed in the time domain and frequency. Also, proximity probes were used for the axis orbit evaluation and an inductive sensor for the rotation and trigger measurement. © (2013) Trans Tech Publications, Switzerland.

Production of a bioherbicide agent in liquid and solid medium and in a biphasic cultivation system

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Algebraic-graph method for identification of islanding in power system grids

In this paper, a new algebraic-graph method for identification of islanding in power system grids is proposed. The proposed method identifies all the possible cases of islanding, due to the loss of a equipment, by means of a factorization of the bus-branch incidence matrix. The main features of this new method include: (i) simple implementation, (ii) high speed, (iii) real-time adaptability, (iv) identification of all islanding cases and (v) identification of the buses that compose each island in case of island formation. The method was successfully tested on large-scale systems such as the reduced south Brazilian system (45 buses/72 branches) and the south-southeast Brazilian system (810 buses/1340 branches). (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modeling hydrothermal system: deriving observables and hydrothermal instability in volcanic and non-volcanic setting

Hydrothermal fluids are a fundamental resource for understanding and monitoring volcanic and non-volcanic systems. This thesis is focused on the study of hydrothermal system through numerical modeling with the geothermal simulator TOUGH2. Several simulations are presented, and geophysical and geochemical observables, arising from fluids circulation, are analyzed in detail throughout the thesis. In a volcanic setting, fluids feeding fumaroles and hot spring may play a key role in the hazard evaluation. The evolution of the fluids circulation is caused by a strong interaction between magmatic and hydrothermal systems. A simultaneous analysis of different geophysical and geochemical observables is a sound approach for interpreting monitored data and to infer a consistent conceptual model. Analyzed observables are ground displacement, gravity changes, electrical conductivity, amount, composition and temperature of the emitted gases at surface, and extent of degassing area. Results highlight the different temporal response of the considered observables, as well as the different radial pattern of variation. However, magnitude, temporal response and radial pattern of these signals depend not only on the evolution of fluid circulation, but a main role is played by the considered rock properties. Numerical simulations highlight differences that arise from the assumption of different permeabilities, for both homogeneous and heterogeneous systems. Rock properties affect hydrothermal fluid circulation, controlling both the range of variation and the temporal evolution of the observable signals. Low temperature fumaroles and low discharge rate may be affected by atmospheric conditions. Detailed parametric simulations were performed, aimed to understand the effects of system properties, such as permeability and gas reservoir overpressure, on diffuse degassing when air temperature and barometric pressure changes are applied to the ground surface. Hydrothermal circulation, however, is not only a characteristic of volcanic system. Hot fluids may be involved in several mankind problems, such as studies on geothermal engineering, nuclear waste propagation in porous medium, and Geological Carbon Sequestration (GCS). The current concept for large-scale GCS is the direct injection of supercritical carbon dioxide into deep geological formations which typically contain brine. Upward displacement of such brine from deep reservoirs driven by pressure increases resulting from carbon dioxide injection may occur through abandoned wells, permeable faults or permeable channels. Brine intrusion into aquifers may degrade groundwater resources. Numerical results show that pressure rise drives dense water up to the conduits, and does not necessarily result in continuous flow. Rather, overpressure leads to new hydrostatic equilibrium if fluids are initially density stratified. If warm and salty fluid does not cool passing through the conduit, an oscillatory solution is then possible. Parameter studies delineate steady-state (static) and oscillatory solutions.

The grain-scale distribution and behaviour of melt and fluid in crystalline analogue systems

The production, segregation and migration of melt and aqueous fluids (henceforth called liquid) plays an important role for the transport of mass and energy within the mantle and the crust of the Earth. Many properties of large-scale liquid migration processes such as the permeability of a rock matrix or the initial segregation of newly formed liquid from the host-rock depends on the grain-scale distribution and behaviour of liquid. Although the general mechanisms of liquid distribution at the grain-scale are well understood, the influence of possibly important modifying processes such as static recrystallization, deformation, and chemical disequilibrium on the liquid distribution is not well constrained. For this thesis analogue experiments were used that allowed to investigate the interplay of these different mechanisms in-situ. In high-temperature environments where melts are produced, the grain-scale distribution in “equilibrium” is fully determined by the liquid fraction and the ratio between the solid-solid and the solid-liquid surface energy. The latter is commonly expressed as the dihedral or wetting angle between two grains and the liquid phase (Chapter 2). The interplay of this “equilibrium” liquid distribution with ongoing surface energy driven recrystallization is investigated in Chapter 4 and 5 with experiments using norcamphor plus ethanol liquid. Ethanol in contact with norcamphor forms a wetting angle of about 25°, which is similar to reported angles of rock-forming minerals in contact with silicate melt. The experiments in Chapter 4 show that previously reported disequilibrium features such as trapped liquid lenses, fully-wetted grain boundaries, and large liquid pockets can be explained by the interplay of the liquid with ongoing recrystallization. Closer inspection of dihedral angles in Chapter 5 reveals that the wetting angles are themselves modified by grain coarsening. Ongoing recrystallization constantly moves liquid-filled triple junctions, thereby altering the wetting angles dynamically as a function of the triple junction velocity. A polycrystalline aggregate will therefore always display a range of equilibrium and dynamic wetting angles at raised temperature, rather than a single wetting angle as previously thought. For the deformation experiments partially molten KNO3–LiNO3 experiments were used in addition to norcamphor–ethanol experiments (Chapter 6). Three deformation regimes were observed. At a high bulk liquid fraction >10 vol.% the aggregate deformed by compaction and granular flow. At a “moderate” liquid fraction, the aggregate deformed mainly by grain boundary sliding (GBS) that was localized into conjugate shear zones. At a low liquid fraction, the grains of the aggregate formed a supporting framework that deformed internally by crystal plastic deformation or diffusion creep. Liquid segregation was most efficient during framework deformation, while GBS lead to slow liquid segregation or even liquid dispersion in the deforming areas.

Fading pdf of free-space optical communication system with pointing error

A free-space optical (FSO) laser communication system with perfect fast-tracking experiences random power fading due to atmospheric turbulence. For a FSO communication system without fast-tracking or with imperfect fast-tracking, the fading probability density function (pdf) is also affected by the pointing error. In this thesis, the overall fading pdfs of FSO communication system with pointing errors are calculated using an analytical method based on the fast-tracked on-axis and off-axis fading pdfs and the fast-tracked beam profile of a turbulence channel. The overall fading pdf is firstly studied for the FSO communication system with collimated laser beam. Large-scale numerical wave-optics simulations are performed to verify the analytically calculated fading pdf with collimated beam under various turbulence channels and pointing errors. The calculated overall fading pdfs are almost identical to the directly simulated fading pdfs. The calculated overall fading pdfs are also compared with the gamma-gamma (GG) and the log-normal (LN) fading pdf models. They fit better than both the GG and LN fading pdf models under different receiver aperture sizes in all the studied cases. Further, the analytical method is expanded to the FSO communication system with beam diverging angle case. It is shown that the gamma pdf model is still valid for the fast-tracked on-axis and off-axis fading pdfs with point-like receiver aperture when the laser beam is propagated with beam diverging angle. Large-scale numerical wave-optics simulations prove that the analytically calculated fading pdfs perfectly fit the overall fading pdfs for both focused and diverged beam cases. The influence of the fast-tracked on-axis and off-axis fading pdfs, the fast-tracked beam profile, and the pointing error on the overall fading pdf is also discussed. At last, the analytical method is compared with the previous heuristic fading pdf models proposed since 1970s. Although some of previously proposed fading pdf models provide close fit to the experiment and simulation data, these close fits only exist under particular conditions. Only analytical method shows accurate fit to the directly simulated fading pdfs under different turbulence strength, propagation distances, receiver aperture sizes and pointing errors.

Simulating dioxane transport in a heterogeneous glacial aquifer system (Washtenaw County, Michigan) using publicly available models and data

The primary challenge in groundwater and contaminant transport modeling is obtaining the data needed for constructing, calibrating and testing the models. Large amounts of data are necessary for describing the hydrostratigraphy in areas with complex geology. Increasingly states are making spatial data available that can be used for input to groundwater flow models. The appropriateness of this data for large-scale flow systems has not been tested. This study focuses on modeling a plume of 1,4-dioxane in a heterogeneous aquifer system in Scio Township, Washtenaw County, Michigan. The analysis consisted of: (1) characterization of hydrogeology of the area and construction of a conceptual model based on publicly available spatial data, (2) development and calibration of a regional flow model for the site, (3) conversion of the regional model to a more highly resolved local model, (4) simulation of the dioxane plume, and (5) evaluation of the model's ability to simulate field data and estimation of the possible dioxane sources and subsequent migration until maximum concentrations are at or below the Michigan Department of Environmental Quality's residential cleanup standard for groundwater (85 ppb). MODFLOW-2000 and MT3D programs were utilized to simulate the groundwater flow and the development and movement of the 1, 4-dioxane plume, respectively. MODFLOW simulates transient groundwater flow in a quasi-3-dimensional sense, subject to a variety of boundary conditions that can simulate recharge, pumping, and surface-/groundwater interactions. MT3D simulates solute advection with groundwater flow (using the flow solution from MODFLOW), dispersion, source/sink mixing, and chemical reaction of contaminants. This modeling approach was successful at simulating the groundwater flows by calibrating recharge and hydraulic conductivities. The plume transport was adequately simulated using literature dispersivity and sorption coefficients, although the plume geometries were not well constrained.

Payone : incentive for epidemic protocol-based anonymity system

Anonymity systems maintain the anonymity of communicating nodes by camouflaging them, either with peer nodes generating dummy traffic or with peer nodes participating in the actual communication process. The probability of any adversary breaking down the anonymity of the communicating nodes is inversely proportional to the number of peer nodes participating in the network. Hence to maintain the anonymity of the communicating nodes, a large number of peer nodes are needed. Lack of peer availability weakens the anonymity of any large scale anonymity system. This work proposes PayOne, an incentive based scheme for promoting peer availability. PayOne aims to increase the peer availability by encouraging nodes to participate in the anonymity system by awarding them with incentives and thereby promoting the anonymity strength. Existing incentive schemes are designed for single path based approaches. There is no incentive scheme for multipath based or epidemic based anonymity systems. This work has been specifically designed for epidemic protocols and has been implemented over MuON, one of the latest entries to the area of multicasting based anonymity systems. MuON is a peer-to-peer based anonymity system which uses epidemic protocol for data dissemination. Existing incentive schemes involve paying every intermediate node that is involved in the communication between the initiator and the receiver. These schemes are not appropriate for epidemic based anonymity systems due to the incurred overhead. PayOne differs from the existing schemes because it involves paying a single intermediate node that participates in the network. The intermediate node can be any random node that participates in the communication and does not necessarily need to lie in the communication path between the initiator and the receiver. The light-weight characteristics of PayOne make it viable for large-scale epidemic based anonymity systems.