Parameter estimation in a growth model for a biological population

The motivating problem concerns the estimation of the growth curve of solitary corals that follow the nonlinear Von Bertalanffy Growth Function (VBGF). The most common parameterization of the VBGF for corals is based on two parameters: the ultimate length L∞ and the growth rate k. One aim was to find a more reliable method for estimating these parameters, which can capture the influence of environmental covariates. The main issue with current methods is that they force the linearization of VBGF and neglect intra-individual variability. The idea was to use the hierarchical nonlinear model which has the appealing features of taking into account the influence of collection sites, possible intra-site measurement correlation and variance heterogeneity, and that can handle the influence of environmental factors and all the reliable information that might influence coral growth. This method was used on two databases of different solitary corals i.e. Balanophyllia europaea and Leptopsammia pruvoti, collected in six different sites in different environmental conditions, which introduced a decisive improvement in the results. Nevertheless, the theory of the energy balance in growth ascertains the linear correlation of the two parameters and the independence of the ultimate length L∞ from the influence of environmental covariates, so a further aim of the thesis was to propose a new parameterization based on the ultimate length and parameter c which explicitly describes the part of growth ascribable to site-specific conditions such as environmental factors. We explored the possibility of estimating these parameters characterizing the VBGF new parameterization via the nonlinear hierarchical model. Again there was a general improvement with respect to traditional methods. The results of the two parameterizations were similar, although a very slight improvement was observed in the new one. This is, nevertheless, more suitable from a theoretical point of view when considering environmental covariates.

Realisierung der IceCube MonteCarlo-Produktion im WLCG und Untersuchung von Auswirkungen meteorologischer Parameter auf die Erzeugung atmosphärischer Myonen

Das am Südpol gelegene Neutrinoteleskop IceCube detektiert hochenergetische Neutrinos über die schwache Wechselwirkung geladener und neutraler Ströme. Die Analyse basiert auf einem Vergleich mit Monte-Carlo-Simulationen, deren Produktion global koordiniert wird. In Mainz ist es erstmalig gelungen, Simulationen innerhalb der Architektur des Worldwide LHC Computing Grid (WLCG) zu realisieren, was die Möglichkeit eröffnet, Monte-Carlo-Berechnungen auch auf andere deutsche Rechnerfarmen (CEs) mit IceCube-Berechtigung zu verteilen. Atmosphärische Myonen werden mit einer Rate von über 1000 Ereignissen pro Sekunde aufgezeichnet. Eine korrekte Interpretation dieses dominanten Signals, welches um einen Faktor von 10^6 reduziert werden muss um das eigentliche Neutrinosignal zu extrahieren, ist deswegen von großer Bedeutung. Eigene Simulationen mit der Software-Umgebung CORSIKA wurden durchgeführt um die von Energie und Einfallswinkel abhängige Entstehungshöhe atmosphärischer Myonen zu bestimmen. IceCube Myonraten wurden mit Wetterdaten des European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forcasts (ECMWF) verglichen und Korrelationen zwischen jahreszeitlichen sowie kurzzeitigen Schwankungen der Atmosphärentemperatur und Myonraten konnten nachgewiesen werden. Zudem wurde eine Suche nach periodischen Effekten in der Atmosphäre, verursacht durch z.B. meteorologische Schwerewellen, mit Hilfe einer Fourieranalyse anhand der IceCube-Daten durchgeführt. Bislang konnte kein signifikanter Nachweis zur Existenz von Schwerewellen am Südpol erbracht werden.

Rheology of arrested colloids : a parameter study using novel experimental methods

The steadily increasing diversity of colloidal systems demands for new theoretical approaches and a cautious experimental characterization. Here we present a combined rheological and microscopical study of colloids in their arrested state whereas we did not aim for a generalized treatise but rather focused on a few model colloids, liquid crystal based colloidal suspensions and sedimented colloidal films. We laid special emphasis on the understanding of the mutual influence of dominant interaction mechanisms, structural characteristics and the particle properties on the mechanical behavior of the colloid. The application of novel combinations of experimental techniques played an important role in these studies. Beside of piezo-rheometry we employed nanoindentation experiments and associated standardized analysis procedures. These rheometric methods were complemented by real space images using confocal microscopy. The flexibility of the home-made setup allowed for a combination of both techniques and thereby for a simultaneous rheological and three-dimensional structural analysis on a single particle level. Though, the limits of confocal microscopy are not reached by now. We show how hollow and optically anisotropic particles can be utilized to quantify contact forces and rotational motions for individual particles. In future such data can contribute to a better understanding of particle reorganization processes, such as the liquidation of colloidal gels and glasses under shear.

NLGA based Active Control in Aerospace: fault tolerability, disturbance rejection, and parameter estimation

A new control scheme has been presented in this thesis. Based on the NonLinear Geometric Approach, the proposed Active Control System represents a new way to see the reconfigurable controllers for aerospace applications. The presence of the Diagnosis module (providing the estimation of generic signals which, based on the case, can be faults, disturbances or system parameters), mean feature of the depicted Active Control System, is a characteristic shared by three well known control systems: the Active Fault Tolerant Controls, the Indirect Adaptive Controls and the Active Disturbance Rejection Controls. The standard NonLinear Geometric Approach (NLGA) has been accurately investigated and than improved to extend its applicability to more complex models. The standard NLGA procedure has been modified to take account of feasible and estimable sets of unknown signals. Furthermore the application of the Singular Perturbations approximation has led to the solution of Detection and Isolation problems in scenarios too complex to be solved by the standard NLGA. Also the estimation process has been improved, where multiple redundant measuremtent are available, by the introduction of a new algorithm, here called "Least Squares - Sliding Mode". It guarantees optimality, in the sense of the least squares, and finite estimation time, in the sense of the sliding mode. The Active Control System concept has been formalized in two controller: a nonlinear backstepping controller and a nonlinear composite controller. Particularly interesting is the integration, in the controller design, of the estimations coming from the Diagnosis module. Stability proofs are provided for both the control schemes. Finally, different applications in aerospace have been provided to show the applicability and the effectiveness of the proposed NLGA-based Active Control System.

Intracranial pressure pulse amplitude during changes in head elevation: a new parameter for determining optimum cerebral perfusion pressure?

During short-term postural changes, the factors determining the amplitude of intracranial pulse pressure (ICPPA) remain constant, except for cerebrovascular resistance (CVR). Therefore, it may be possible to draw conclusions from the ICPPA onto the cerebrovascular resistance (CVR) and thus the relative change in cerebral perfusion pressure (CPP).

Intratumoral budding as a potential parameter of tumor progression in mismatch repair-proficient and mismatch repair-deficient colorectal cancer patients

In colorectal cancer, tumor budding at the invasive front (peritumoral budding) is an established prognostic parameter and decreased in mismatch repair-deficient tumors. In contrast, the clinical relevance of tumor budding within the tumor center (intratumoral budding) is not yet known. The aim of the study was to determine the correlation of intratumoral budding with peritumoral budding and mismatch repair status and the prognostic impact of intratumoral budding using 2 independent patient cohorts. Following pancytokeratin staining of whole-tissue sections and multiple-punch tissue microarrays, 2 independent cohorts (group 1: n = 289; group 2: n = 222) with known mismatch repair status were investigated for intratumoral budding and peritumoral budding. In group 1, intratumoral budding was strongly correlated to peritumoral budding (r = 0.64; P < .001) and less frequent in mismatch repair-deficient versus mismatch repair-proficient cases (P = .177). Sensitivity and specificity for lymph node positivity were 72.7% and 72.1%. In mismatch repair-proficient cancers, high-grade intratumoral budding was associated with right-sided location (P = .024), advanced T stage (P = .001) and N stage pN (P < .001), vascular invasion (P = .041), infiltrating tumor margin (P = .003), and shorter survival time (P = .014). In mismatch repair-deficient cancers, high intratumoral budding was linked to higher tumor grade (P = .004), vascular invasion (P = .009), infiltrating tumor margin (P = .005), and more unfavorable survival time (P = .09). These associations were confirmed in group 2. High-grade intratumoral budding was a poor prognostic factor in univariate (P < .001) and multivariable analyses (P = .019) adjusting for T stage, N stage distant metastasis, and adjuvant therapy. These preliminary results on 511 patients show that intratumoral budding is an independent prognostic factor, supporting the future investigation of intratumoral budding in larger series of both preoperative and postoperative rectal and colon cancer specimens.

Planetary Gear Modal Vibration Experiments and Correlation against Lumped-Parameter and Finite Element Models

Experimental modal analysis techniques are applied to characterize the planar dynamic behavior of two spur planetary gears. Rotational and translational vibrations of the sun gear, carrier, and planet gears are measured. Experimentally obtained natural frequencies, mode shapes, and dynamic response are compared to the results from lumped-parameter and finite element models. Two qualitatively different classes of mode shapes in distinct frequency ranges are observed in the experiments and confirmed by the lumped-parameter model, which considers the accessory shafts and fixtures in the system to capture all of the natural frequencies and modes. The finite element model estimates the high-frequency modes that have significant tooth mesh deflection without considering the shafts and fixtures. The lumped-parameter and finite element models accurately predict the natural frequencies and modal properties established by experimentation. Rotational, translational, and planet mode types presented in published mathematical studies are confirmed experimentally. The number and types of modes in the low-frequency and high-frequency bands depend on the degrees of freedom in the central members and planet gears, respectively. The accuracy of natural frequency prediction is improved when the planet bearings have differing stiffnesses in the tangential and radial directions, consistent with the bearing load direction. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Tumour budding: a promising parameter in colorectal cancer

In 2011, the Tumour Node Metastasis (TNM) staging system still remains the gold standard for stratifying colorectal cancer (CRC) patients into prognostic subgroups, and is considered a solid basis for treatment management. Nevertheless, there is still a challenge with regard to therapeutic strategy; stage II patients are not typically selected for postoperative adjuvant chemotherapy, although some stage II patients have a comparable outcome to stage III patients who, themselves do receive such treatment. Consequently, there has been an inundation of 'prognostic biomarker' studies aiming to improve the prognostic stratification power of the TNM staging system. Most proposed biomarkers are not implemented because of lack of reproducibility, validation and standardisation. This problem can be partially resolved by following the REMARK guidelines. In search of novel prognostic factors for patients with CRC, one might glance at a table in the book entitled 'Prognostic Factors in Cancer' published by the International Union against Cancer (UICC) in 2006, in which TNM stage, L and V classifications are considered 'essential' prognostic factors, whereas tumour grade, perineural invasion, tumour budding and tumour-border configuration among others are proposed as 'additional' prognostic factors. Histopathology reports normally include the 'essential' features and are accompanied by tumour grade, histological subtype and information on perineural invasion, but interestingly, the tumour-border configuration (i.e., growth pattern) and especially tumour budding are rarely reported. Although scoring systems such as the 'BRE' in breast and 'Gleason' in prostate cancer are solidly based on histomorphological features and used in daily practice, no such additional scoring system to complement TNM staging is available for CRC. Regardless of differences in study design and methods for tumour-budding assessment, the prognostic power of tumour budding has been confirmed by dozens of study groups worldwide, suggesting that tumour budding may be a valuable candidate for inclusion into a future prognostic scoring system for CRC. This mini-review therefore attempts to present a short and concise overview on tumour budding, including morphological, molecular and prognostic aspects underlining its inter-disciplinary relevance.

Development of a morphometric magnetic resonance image parameter suitable for distinguishing between normal dogs and dogs with cerebellar atrophy

Neurodegenerative diseases affect the cerebellum of numerous dog breeds. Although subjective, magnetic resonance (MR) imaging has been used to detect cerebellar atrophy in these diseases, but there are few data available on the normal size range of the cerebellum relative to other brain regions. The purpose of this study was to determine whether the size of the cerebellum maintains a consistent ratio with other brain regions in different ages and breeds of normal dogs and to define a measurement that can be used to identify cerebellar atrophy on MR images. Images from 52 normal and 13 dogs with cerebellar degenerative diseases were obtained. Volume and mid-sagittal cross-sectional area of the forebrain, brainstem, and cerebellum were calculated for each normal dog and compared between different breeds and ages as absolute and relative values. The ratio of the cerebellum to total brain and of the brainstem to cerebellum mid-sagittal cross-sectional area was compared between normal and affected dogs and the sensitivity and specificity of these ratios at distinguishing normal from affected dogs was calculated. The percentage of the brain occupied by the cerebellum in diverse dog breeds between 1 and 5 years of age was not significantly different, and cerebellar size did not change with increasing age. Using a cut off of 89%, the ratio between the brainstem and cerebellum mid-sagittal cross-sectional area could be used successfully to differentiate affected from unaffected dogs with a sensitivity and specificity of 100%, making this ratio an effective tool for identifying cerebellar atrophy on MR images.

End-tidal CO(2). An important parameter for a correct interpretation in functional brain studies using speech tasks

The aim was to investigate the effect of different speech tasks, i.e. recitation of prose (PR), alliteration (AR) and hexameter (HR) verses and a control task (mental arithmetic (MA) with voicing of the result on end-tidal CO2 (PETCO2), cerebral hemodynamics and oxygenation. CO2 levels in the blood are known to strongly affect cerebral blood flow. Speech changes breathing pattern and may affect CO2 levels. Measurements were performed on 24 healthy adult volunteers during the performance of the 4 tasks. Tissue oxygen saturation (StO2) and absolute concentrations of oxyhemoglobin ([O2Hb]), deoxyhemoglobin ([HHb]) and total hemoglobin ([tHb]) were measured by functional near-infrared spectroscopy (fNIRS) and PETCO2 by a gas analyzer. Statistical analysis was applied to the difference between baseline before the task, 2 recitation and 5 baseline periods after the task. The 2 brain hemispheres and 4 tasks were tested separately. A significant decrease in PETCO2 was found during all 4 tasks with the smallest decrease during the MA task. During the recitation tasks (PR, AR and HR) a statistically significant (p < 0.05) decrease occurred for StO2 during PR and AR in the right prefrontal cortex (PFC) and during AR and HR in the left PFC. [O2Hb] decreased significantly during PR, AR and HR in both hemispheres. [HHb] increased significantly during the AR task in the right PFC. [tHb] decreased significantly during HR in the right PFC and during PR, AR and HR in the left PFC. During the MA task, StO2 increased and [HHb] decreased significantly during the MA task. We conclude that changes in breathing (hyperventilation) during the tasks led to lower CO2 pressure in the blood (hypocapnia), predominantly responsible for the measured changes in cerebral hemodynamics and oxygenation. In conclusion, our findings demonstrate that PETCO2 should be monitored during functional brain studies investigating speech using neuroimaging modalities, such as fNIRS, fMRI to ensure a correct interpretation of changes in hemodynamics and oxygenation.

The Optimal Confidence Region for a Random Parameter

Under a two-level hierarchical model, suppose that the distribution of the random parameter is known or can be estimated well. Data are generated via a fixed, but unobservable realization of this parameter. In this paper, we derive the smallest confidence region of the random parameter under a joint Bayesian/frequentist paradigm. On average this optimal region can be much smaller than the corresponding Bayesian highest posterior density region. The new estimation procedure is appealing when one deals with data generated under a highly parallel structure, for example, data from a trial with a large number of clinical centers involved or genome-wide gene-expession data for estimating individual gene- or center-specific parameters simultaneously. The new proposal is illustrated with a typical microarray data set and its performance is examined via a small simulation study.