Future at risk: A study on the Club of Rome

Sustainability, in its modern meaning, has been discussed for more than forty years. However, many experts believe that humanity is still far from being sustainable. Some experts have argued that humanity should seek survivable development because it is too late for sustainable one, since 1990s. Obviously, some problems prevented humanity from becoming sustainable. This thesis focuses on the agenda of sustainability discussions and seeks for the essential topics missing from it. For this purpose, the research is conducted on 21 out of 33 books endorsed by the Club of Rome. All of these books are titled ‘a report to the Club of Rome’. The Club of Rome is an organization that has been constantly working on the problems of humankind for the past 40 years. This thesis has three main components: first, the messages of the reports to the Club of Rome, second, academics perceptions of the Club, and third, the Club member perceptions of its evolution, messages and missing topics. This thesis investigates the evolution of four aspects in the reports. The first one is the agenda of the reports. The second one is the basic approaches of the Club (i.e., global, long-term and holistic). The third one is the ways that the reports treat free market and growth ideology. The fourth one is the approach of the reports toward components of the global complex system (i.e., society, economy and politics). The outline of the thesis is as follows. First, the original reports are briefly summarized. After this, the academic perceptions are discussed and structured around three concepts (i.e., futures studies, sustainability and degrowth). In the final step, the perceptions of the experts are collected and analysed, using a variation of Delphi method, called ‘in-depth interviews’, and ‘quality content analysis’ method. This thesis is useful for those interested in sustainability, global problems, and the Club of Rome. This thesis concludes that the reports from 1972 up to 1980 were cohesive in discussing topics related to the problems of humankind. The topics of the reports are fragmented after this period. The basic approaches of CoR are visible in all the reports. However, after 1980, those approaches and especially holistic thinking are only visible in the background. Regarding the free market and growth ideology, although all the reports are against them, the early reports were more explicitly expressing their disagreement. A milestone is noticeable around 1980 when such objections went completely to the background. However, recent reports are more similar to those of 1970s both in adopting a holistic approach and in explicitly criticizing free market and growth ideology. Finally, concerning the components of global complex system, the society is excluded and the focus of the reports is on politics, economy and their relation. Concerning the topics missing from the debate, this thesis concludes that no major research has been conducted on the fundamental and underlying reasons of the problems (e.g. beliefs, values and culture). Studying the problems without considering their underlying reasons, obviously, leads to superficial and ineffective solutions. This might be one of the reasons that sustainability discussions have as yet led to no concrete result.

User Experience of Geocaching and Its Application to Tourism and Education

Advances in technology have provided new ways of using entertainment and game technology to foster human interaction. Games and playing with games have always been an important part of people’s everyday lives. Traditionally, human-computer interaction (HCI) research was seen as a psychological cognitive science focused on human factors, with engineering sciences as the computer science part of it. Although cognitive science has made significant progress over the past decade, the influence of people’s emotions on design networks is increasingly important, especially when the primary goal is to challenge and entertain users (Norman 2002). Game developers have explored the key issues in game design and identified that the driving force in the success of games is user experience. User-centered design integrates knowledge of users’ activity practices, needs, and preferences into the design process. Geocaching is a location-based treasure hunt game created by a community of players. Players use GPS (Global Position System) technology to find “treasures” and create their own geocaches; the game can be developed when the players invent caches and used more imagination to creations the caches. This doctoral dissertation explores user experience of geocaching and its applications in tourism and education. Globally, based on the Geocaching.com webpage, geocaching has been played about 180 countries and there are more than 10 million registered geocachers worldwide (Geocaching.com, 25.11.2014). This dissertation develops and presents an interaction model called the GameFlow Experience model that can be used to support the design of treasure hunt applications in tourism and education contexts. The GameFlow Model presents and clarifies various experiences; it provides such experiences in a real-life context, offers desirable design targets to be utilized in service design, and offers a perspective to consider when evaluating the success of adventure game concepts. User-centered game designs have adapted to human factor research in mainstream computing science. For many years, the user-centered design approach has been the most important research field in software development. Research has been focusing on user-centered design in software development such as office programs, but the same ideas and theories that will reflect the needs of a user-centered research are now also being applied to game design (Charles et al. 2005.) For several years, we have seen a growing interest in user experience design. Digital games are experience providers, and game developers need tools to better understand the user experience related to products and services they have created. This thesis aims to present what the user experience is in geocaching and treasure hunt games and how it can be used to develop new concepts for the treasure hunt. Engineers, designers, and researchers should have a clear understanding of what user experience is, what its parts are, and most importantly, how we can influence user satisfaction. In addition, we need to understand how users interact with electronic products and people, and how different elements synergize their experiences. This doctoral dissertation represents pioneering work on the user experience of geocaching and treasure hunt games in the context of tourism and education. The research also provides a model for game developers who are planning treasure hunt concepts.

The Impact of the 2007-2009 Financial Crisis on the Relationship between Central Bank Rates and the Corresponding Interbank Interest Rates in 2002-2014

The role of central banks throughout the global financial system has become even more important during and after the events of the financial crisis. In order to stabilize the market conditions and provide solid ground for future development, the central banks use discount rate as their primary monetary policy tool in many developed and emerging economies. The purpose of this thesis is to examine how the relationship between central bank rates and corresponding interbank rates has developed before, during and after the crisis period of 2007-2009 in five developed countries and five emerging market countries. The results indicate that during the before-crisis period the interest rate markets reacted diversely but the joint recovery attempts of global economies seem to have stabilized the reactions during and especially after the crisis. The crisis also seems to have highlighted the characteristics of each country’s survival strategy as the role of other policy instruments arose.

A crise do sistema financeiro globalizado contemporâneo

The paper analyses the development of the contemporary global financial system as a consequence of markets as well as States strategies. This global financial system based on the flexible dollar has generated many financial bubbles since it started in the 80s, of which the 2008 crisis is the latest and the largest, particularly because it affected the main banks in the core market of the system, the U.S. On the last decades, banks had changed their business strategies from traditional lending activities towards more speculative investments, similar to what hedge funds do.

Suomen laskusuhdanteiden vertailu: 1990-luvun laman ja 2000-luvun globaalin finanssikriisin vaikutukset kuluttajille

Suomessa merkittävimpiä talouden laskusuhdanteita ja talouskriisejä ovat sotien jälkeen olleet 1990-luvun alun lama sekä vuonna 2008 alkanut finanssikriisin jälkeinen taantuma. Näillä kahdella ilmiöllä on ollut laajalti vaikutuksia koko kansantalouteemme, ja luonnollisesti suomalaisten kuluttajien taloudellinen hyvinvointi on muuttunut ilmiöiden myötä. Yksilöiden aiempaa huonompi taloudellinen hyvinvointi laskusuhdanteissa aiheutuu laskeneista tuloista, työttömyydestä ja varallisuushintojen laskusta sekä edellä mainittujen seurauksista. Tämän tutkielman tavoitteena on analysoida ja vertailla 1990-luvun laman ja 2000-luvun globaalin finanssikriisin aiheuttamia taloudellisia vaikutuksia suomalaisille kuluttajille. Lisäksi tarkoituksena on selvittää, minkä eri tekijöiden kautta laskusuhdanteet vaikuttavat kuluttajiin ja miksi. Tutkielman empiirisessä osiossa käytetään pääasiassa Tilastokeskuksen tuottamaa kvantitatiivista materiaalia sekä analyysin rikastamiseksi erilaisia kvalitatiivisia tutkimustuloksia aiheesta. Tutkielman lopputuloksena voidaan todeta 1990-luvun laman vaikuttaneen suomalaisiin kuluttajiin voimakkaammin ja pitkäkestoisemmin kuin finanssikriisin aiheuttaman taantuman. Laman vaikutukset kestivät useita vuosia, ja palautuminen oli hidasta. Erityisen suureksi ongelmaksi nousi työttömyyden voimakas kasvu. Finanssikriisin myötä työttömyys reagoi bruttokansantuotteen laskuun nähden sen sijaan maltillisesti, eivätkä esimerkiksi kotitalouksien tulot laskeneet samalla tavalla kuin laman aikana. Lisäksi merkittävässä osassa 1990-luvun lamaa oli asuntomarkkinoiden hintakupla ja sen puhkeaminen, jolla oli voimakas vaikutus reaalitalouteen. Laskukausien toisistaan poikkeavat vaikutukset johtuvat pitkälti niiden syntyyn johtaneiden syiden eroista sekä valtion talouspoliittisista toimista laskukausien helpottamiseksi. Siinä missä 1990-luvun lama johtui pääasiassa Suomen sisäisistä poliittisista päätöksistä ja pankkisektorista, oli finanssikriisi Suomen ulkopuolinen globaalin rahoitusmarkkinoiden häiriö.

La géographie du dollar et la Chine : analyse géoéconomique d'une sédition monétaire

L’équilibre économique mondial repose sur une asymétrie structurelle dont les pôles antagonistes principaux sont les États-Unis et l’Asie orientale. À la base de cet axe de tension géographique se trouve la question de la représentation mondiale de la richesse. La domination du dollar permet aux États-Unis un accès disproportionné aux ressources planétaires. Les pays créanciers, dont fait partie la Chine, hésitent à laisser flotter leur monnaie et attaquer l’hégémonie du dollar. Entre temps, les déséquilibres s’intensifient, tout comme les tensions politiques, par l’effet de ce système monétaire qui participe au maintien d’un monde unipolaire. Le système monétaire actuel n’offre aucune perspective endogène quant à la résolution des déséquilibres que son équilibre requiert. Ce mémoire cherche à identifier les stratégies géoéconomiques de la Chine pour se soustraire de l’emprise du dollar.

Development and Analysis of a Drum-Shaped Compact Microstrip Antenna

The thesis is the outcome of the experimental and theoretical investigations on a new compact drum-shaped microstrip antenna. A new compact antenna suitable for personal communication system(PCS), Global position System(GPS) and array applications is developed and analysed. The generalised cavity model and spatial fourier transform technique are suitably modified for the analysis of the antenna. The predicted results are compared with experimental results and excellent agreement is observed. The experimental work done by the author in related fields are incorporated as three appendices in this thesis. A single feed dual frequency microstrip antenne is presented in appendix A.Appendix B describes a new broadband dual frequeny microstrip antenna. The bandwidth enhancement effect of microstrip antennas through dielectric resonator loading is demonstarted in Appendix C.

Study of the Oceanic Heat Budget Components over the Arabian Sea during the Formation and Evolution of Super Cyclone, Gonu

Oceans play a vital role in the global climate system. They absorb the incoming solar energy and redistribute the energy through horizontal and vertical transports. In this context it is important to investigate the variation of heat budget components during the formation of a low-pressure system. In 2007, the monsoon onset was on 28th May. A well- marked low-pressure area was formed in the eastern Arabian Sea after the onset and it further developed into a cyclone. We have analysed the heat budget components during different stages of the cyclone. The data used for the computation of heat budget components is Objectively Analyzed air-sea flux data obtained from WHOI (Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution) project. Its horizontal resolution is 1° × 1°. Over the low-pressure area, the latent heat flux was 180 Wm−2. It increased to a maximum value of 210 Wm−2 on 1st June 2007, on which the system was intensified into a cyclone (Gonu) with latent heat flux values ranging from 200 to 250 Wm−2. It sharply decreased after the passage of cyclone. The high value of latent heat flux is attributed to the latent heat release due to the cyclone by the formation of clouds. Long wave radiation flux is decreased sharply from 100 Wm−2 to 30 Wm−2 when the low-pressure system intensified into a cyclone. The decrease in long wave radiation flux is due to the presence of clouds. Net heat flux also decreases sharply to −200 Wm−2 on 1st June 2007. After the passage, the flux value increased to normal value (150 Wm−2) within one day. A sharp increase in the sensible heat flux value (20 Wm−2) is observed on 1st June 2007 and it decreased there- after. Short wave radiation flux decreased from 300 Wm−2 to 90 Wm−2 during the intensification on 1st June 2007. Over this region, short wave radiation flux sharply increased to higher value soon after the passage of the cyclone.

Economics of Hybrid Photovoltaic Power Plants

The global power supply stability is faced to several severe and fundamental threats, in particular steadily increasing power demand, diminishing and degrading fossil and nuclear energy resources, very harmful greenhouse gas emissions, significant energy injustice and a structurally misbalanced ecological footprint. Photovoltaic (PV) power systems are analysed in various aspects focusing on economic and technical considerations of supplemental and substitutional power supply to the constraint conventional power system. To infer the most relevant system approach for PV power plants several solar resources available for PV systems are compared. By combining the different solar resources and respective economics, two major PV systems are identified to be very competitive in almost all regions in the world. The experience curve concept is used as a key technique for the development of scenario assumptions on economic projections for the decade of the 2010s. Main drivers for cost reductions in PV systems are learning and production growth rate, thus several relevant aspects are discussed such as research and development investments, technical PV market potential, different PV technologies and the energetic sustainability of PV. Three major market segments for PV systems are identified: off-grid PV solutions, decentralised small scale on-grid PV systems (several kWp) and large scale PV power plants (tens of MWp). Mainly by application of ‘grid-parity’ and ‘fuel-parity’ concepts per country, local market and conventional power plant basis, the global economic market potential for all major PV system segments is derived. PV power plant hybridization potential of all relevant power technologies and the global power plant structure are analyzed regarding technical, economical and geographical feasibility. Key success criteria for hybrid PV power plants are discussed and comprehensively analysed for all adequate power plant technologies, i.e. oil, gas and coal fired power plants, wind power, solar thermal power (STEG) and hydro power plants. For the 2010s, detailed global demand curves are derived for hybrid PV-Fossil power plants on a per power plant, per country and per fuel type basis. The fundamental technical and economic potentials for hybrid PV-STEG, hybrid PV-Wind and hybrid PV-Hydro power plants are considered. The global resource availability for PV and wind power plants is excellent, thus knowing the competitive or complementary characteristic of hybrid PV-Wind power plants on a local basis is identified as being of utmost relevance. The complementarity of hybrid PV-Wind power plants is confirmed. As a result of that almost no reduction of the global economic PV market potential need to be expected and more complex power system designs on basis of hybrid PV-Wind power plants are feasible. The final target of implementing renewable power technologies into the global power system is a nearly 100% renewable power supply. Besides balancing facilities, storage options are needed, in particular for seasonal power storage. Renewable power methane (RPM) offers respective options. A comprehensive global and local analysis is performed for analysing a hybrid PV-Wind-RPM combined cycle gas turbine power system. Such a power system design might be competitive and could offer solutions for nearly all current energy system constraints including the heating and transportation sector and even the chemical industry. Summing up, hybrid PV power plants become very attractive and PV power systems will very likely evolve together with wind power to the major and final source of energy for mankind.

Toward 2^W beyond Web 2.0

From its inception as a global hypertext system, the Web has evolved into a universal platform for deploying loosely coupled distributed applications. 2^W is a result of the exponentially growing Web building on itself to move from a Web of content to a Web of applications.

Glocalización: Nuevos Enfoques Teóricos Sobre el Desarrollo Regional (Sub Nacional) en el Contexto de la Integración Económica y de la Globalización

El autor aborda en este artículo cuestiones atinentes al espacio, la geografía y la organización del territorio a partir del tema del desarrollo. Para fundamentar su tesis según la cual varios de los factores que impulsan la globalización tienen una base territorial, como el comercio internacional de bienes y servicios, el cambio tecnológico o los flujos internacionales, apela a las categorías del desarrollo social y las sitúa en dos dimensiones. En una primera instancia, el autor toma en cuenta la lógica intranacional de despliegue de los factores políticos, ambientales y comerciales; en un segundo momento destaca el papel de las regiones y las localidades en la reconstrucción del sistema económico mundial para concluir que en un contexto todavía incierto se destaca la configuración de regiones megapolitanas que funcionan como motores regionales en la nueva economía global.---The author handles this article with questions that regard space,geography and territorial organisation based on the topic of development. To support his thesis that refers to the way in which various factors that give an impulse to globalisation have a territorial base, such as the international commerce of goods and services, technological change or international networks, the author utilises social development categories and places them in two dimensions. Initially, the author takes into account the international logic of the development of commercial, environment and political factors. Secondly, he emphasizes the role of regions and localities in the reconstruction of the global economic system to conclude that in a present uncertain context it is worth pointing out the configuration of megapolitanregions that function as regional motors in a new global economy.

Entre la gobernanza social e institucional: Una mirada al fenómeno de la trata de personas en Colombia en el período entre 2000 y 2012

La presente monografía tiene por objetivo identificar la influencia de las acciones emprendidas por la sociedad civil y las organizaciones internacionales frente a la problemática de la trata de personas en Colombia, durante el período comprendido entre los años 2000 y 2012. En este sentido, la investigación constituye un esfuerzo por develar las transformaciones en las narrativas institucionales que han posibilitado el reconocimiento de los elementos de prevención y centralidad de las víctimas, como ejes articuladores del discurso gubernamental frente a la trata de personas. Para ello, se hace uso de la teoría de la gobernanza global enmarcada en el enfoque constructivista de las Relaciones Internacionales, en tanto permite establecer una relación entre las acciones de los diferentes actores y el impacto de estas en la construcción de estrategias nacionales para hacer frente a problemáticas que, como la trata de personas, se encuentran en estrecha relación con el mundo globalizado.

Las limitaciones de los mecanismos de aproximación jurídica para el diseño de la nueva arquitectura financiera internacional (Tema Central)

A nivel internacional existe consenso respecto a la importancia que tiene el marco institucional para el funcionamiento eficiente del sistema financiero y para la generación de incentivos correctos para mantener la disciplina de mercado. Por eso mismo, durante los últimos diez años, se ha estado discutiendo, especialmente a nivel técnico, respecto de las condiciones de una nueva arquitectura financiera internacional que se ajuste a la realidad de un sistema financiero globalizado, y se han generado políticas, lineamientos y mínimos estándares para los sistemas financieros que han sido recogidos fundamentalmente por normas informales conocidas como softlaw y por órganos igualmente informales. La Declaración de la Cumbre del G20 en Washington de noviembre de 2008 estableció cinco principios comunes para reforma del sistema financiero que deben ser considerados en esta nueva arquitectura, a la que se puede definir como ""el establecimiento e implementación, a nivel nacional e internacional, de reglas, principios y arreglos institucionales que aseguren la estabilidad del sistema financiero internacional, previniendo las crisis y estableciendo los mecanismos institucionales para enfrentarlas o mitigarlas"". Sin embargo de esto, no existe una conciencia clara de que el problema de la nueva arquitectura financiera internacional es un problema ante todo jurídico: los órganos informales creados y el softlaw son insuficientes para crear las condiciones necesarias para asegurar el obligatorio cumplimiento y la aplicación general de este marco de regulación financiera global. Además, el principio de la soberanía de los Estados, base de los ordenamientos y sistemas jurídicos actuales, de naturaleza fundamentalmente nacional, y norma fundamental para las relaciones entre Estados, en el Derecho público internacional, vuelve complejay demorada la creación de un nuevo sistema de gobernanza global que viabilice esta nueva arquitectura financiera internacional y permita devolver rápidamente la confianza perdida y la estabilidad de este nuevo sistema financiero global.

Efectos en los mercados financieros internacionales de la derogatoria en 1999 de la Ley Glass Steagall de los EE.UU. (Tema Central)

Actualmente la profunda crisis del sistema financiero internacional, similar a la que vivió Estados Unidos en los años treinta, es el punto más importante de discusión en todo el mundo. Por ello, se consideró importante realizar un análisis de la Ley Glass Steagall Act, promulgada en el año 1933, justamente como una salida a la crisis financiera estadounidense, de aquella época, precisando cuáles son sus principales características, y sobre todo los efectos que su derogatoria (en 1999) trajo consigo en el sistema financiero mundial, pues como veremos, para muchos la actual crisis es producto de la inadecuada mezcla de regulación y libertad que se produjo con la promulgación de la Ley Gramm Leach Bliley Act, mediante la cual los bancos comerciales empezaron a incursionar en operaciones bursátiles, actividades que anteriormente estaban vetadas, y por tanto existían garantías suficientes para los depositantes.

Can climate trends be calculated from reanalysis data?

Several global quantities are computed from the ERA40 reanalysis for the period 1958-2001 and explored for trends. These are discussed in the context of changes to the global observing system. Temperature, integrated water vapor (IWV), and kinetic energy are considered. The ERA40 global mean temperature in the lower troposphere has a trend of +0.11 K per decade over the period of 1979-2001, which is slightly higher than the MSU measurements, but within the estimated error limit. For the period 1958 2001 the warming trend is 0.14 K per decade but this is likely to be an artifact of changes in the observing system. When this is corrected for, the warming trend is reduced to 0.10 K per decade. The global trend in IWV for the period 1979-2001 is +0.36 mm per decade. This is about twice as high as the trend determined from the Clausius-Clapeyron relation assuming conservation of relative humidity. It is also larger than results from free climate model integrations driven by the same observed sea surface temperature as used in ERA40. It is suggested that the large trend in IWV does not represent a genuine climate trend but an artifact caused by changes in the global observing system such as the use of SSM/I and more satellite soundings in later years. Recent results are in good agreement with GPS measurements. The IWV trend for the period 1958-2001 is still higher but reduced to +0.16 mm per decade when corrected for changes in the observing systems. Total kinetic energy shows an increasing global trend. Results from data assimilation experiments strongly suggest that this trend is also incorrect and mainly caused by the huge changes in the global observing system in 1979. When this is corrected for, no significant change in global kinetic energy from 1958 onward can be found.