Applying Least Absolute Shrinkage Selection Operator and Akaike Information Criterion Analysis to Find the Best Multiple Linear Regression Models between Climate Indices and Components of Cow’s Milk

This study focuses on multiple linear regression models relating six climate indices (temperature humidity THI, environmental stress ESI, equivalent temperature index ETI, heat load HLI, modified HLI (HLI new), and respiratory rate predictor RRP) with three main components of cow’s milk (yield, fat, and protein) for cows in Iran. The least absolute shrinkage selection operator (LASSO) and the Akaike information criterion (AIC) techniques are applied to select the best model for milk predictands with the smallest number of climate predictors. Uncertainty estimation is employed by applying bootstrapping through resampling. Cross validation is used to avoid over-fitting. Climatic parameters are calculated from the NASA-MERRA global atmospheric reanalysis. Milk data for the months from April to September, 2002 to 2010 are used. The best linear regression models are found in spring between milk yield as the predictand and THI, ESI, ETI, HLI, and RRP as predictors with p-value < 0.001 and R2 (0.50, 0.49) respectively. In summer, milk yield with independent variables of THI, ETI, and ESI show the highest relation (p-value < 0.001) with R2 (0.69). For fat and protein the results are only marginal. This method is suggested for the impact studies of climate variability/change on agriculture and food science fields when short-time series or data with large uncertainty are available.

Transferability of environmental favourability models in geographic space: The case of the Iberian desman (Galemys pyrenaicus) in Portugal and Spain

Transferring distribution models between different geographical areas may be problematic, as the performance of models outside their original scope is hard to predict. A modelling procedure is needed that gets the gist of the environmental descriptors of a distribution area, without either overfitting to the training data or overestimating the species’ distribution potential.We tested the transferability power of the favourability function, a generalized linear model, on the distribution of the Iberian desman (Galemys pyrenaicus) in the Iberian territories of Portugal and Spain.We also tested the effects of two of the main potential constraints on model transferability: the analysed ranges of the predictor variables, and the completeness of the species distribution data. We modelled 10 km×10km presence/absence data from Portugal and Spain separately, extrapolated each model to the other country, and compared predictions with observations. The Spanish model, despite arguably containing more false absences, showed good predictive ability in Portugal. The Portuguese model, whose predictors ranged between only a subset of the values observed in Spain, overestimated desman distribution when transferred.We discuss possible reasons for this differential model behaviour, and highlight the importance of this kind of models for prediction and conservation applications

Modelação do cancro da mama na região do Alentejo

Estudos epidemiológicos são estudos estatísticos onde se procura relacionar ocorrências de eventos de saúde com uma ou várias causas específicas. A importância que os modelos epidemiológicos assumem hoje no estudo de doenças de foro oncológico, em particular no estabelecimento das suas etiologias, é incontornável. Segundo Ogden, J. (1999) o cancro é "um crescimento incontrolável de células anormais que produzem tumores chamados neoplasias". Estes tumores podem ter origem benigna (não se espalham pelo corpo) ou maligna (apresentam metastização de outros órgãos). Sendo uma doença actual, com uma elevada taxa de incidência em Portugal quando comparada com outras doenças (Instituto Nacional de Estatística- INE, 2009), aumentando esta taxa com a idade tal como refere Marques, L. (2003), podendo ocorrer o diagnóstico desta doença em qualquer idade. De acordo com INE (2000) pode dizer-se que o cancro está entre as três principais causas de morte em Portugal, registando-se um aumento progressivo do seu peso proporcional, sendo o cancro da mama o tipo de cancro mais comum entre as mulheres e uma das doenças com maior impacto na nossa sociedade. O objectivo principal deste trabalho é a estimação e modelação do risco de contrair uma doença de natureza não contagiosa e rara (neste caso, cancro da mama), usando dados da região do Alentejo. Pretende-se fazer um apanhado das metodologias mais empregues nesta área e aplicá-las na prática, com ênfase nos estudos caso-controlo e nos modelos lineares generalizados (GLM) - mais concretamente regressão logística. Os estudos caso-controlo são usados para identificar os factores que podem contribuir para uma condição médica, comparando indivíduos que têm essa condição (casos) com pacientes que não têm a condição, mas que de resto são semelhantes (controlos). Neste trabalho utilizou-se essa metodologia para estudar a associação entre o viver em ambiente rural/urbano e o cancro da mama. Tendo em conta que o objectivo principal deste estudo se prende com o estudo da relação entre variáveis, mais propriamente, análise de influência que uma ou mais variáveis (explicativas) têm sobre uma variável de interesse (resposta), para esse efeito são estudados os modelos lineares generalizados - GLM - unificados na mesma moldura teórica pela primeira vez por Nelder & Wedderburn (1972) - e, posteriormente aplicados ao conjunto de dados sobre cancro da mama na Região do Alentejo. O presente trabalho pretende assim, ser um contributo na identificação de factores de risco do cancro da mama na região do Alentejo. ABSTRACT: Epidemiological studies are statistical studies where attempts to relate occurrences of health events with one or more specific causes. The importance of epidemiological models that are far in the study of diseases of cancer forum, particularly in establishing their etiology, is inescapable. According to Ogden, J. (1999) cancer is "an incontrollable growth of abnormal cells that produce tumors called cancer". These tumors may be benign (not spread throughout the body) or malignant (show metastasis to other organs). Being a current illness with a high incidence rate in Portugal compared with the same respect to other diseases (National Statistics 1nstitute -1NE, 2009) having an increasing rate with age as mentioned Marques, L. (2003), and can possibly be diagnosed at any age. According to 1NE (2000) the cancer is among the top three causes of death in Portugal and there is a progressive increase of its proportional weight. Breast cancer is the most common form of cancer among women and the diseases with major impact in our society. The main objective of this work is to model and estimate the risk of contracting a non-contagious and rare disease (in this case, breast cancer), using data from the Alentejo region. It is intended to summarize some of the methodologies employed in this area and apply them in practice, with emphasis on case-control studies and generalized linear models (GLM) - more specifically the logistic regression. The case-control studies are used to identify factors that may contribute to a medical condition, comparing individuals who have this condition (cases) with patients who have not the condition but that are otherwise similar (controls). ln this work we used this methodology to study the association between living in a rural/urban and breast cancer. Given that the main objective of this study rather relates to the study of the relationship between variables to analyze the influence that one or more variables (explanatory) have on a variable (response), for this purpose we study the generalized linear models - GLM - first unified in the same theoretical framework by Nelder and Wedderburn (1972) and subsequently applied to the data set on breast cancer in the Alentejo region. This work intends to be a contribution in identifying risk factors for breast cancer in the Alentejo region.

Implementação de algoritmo para avaliação genética de grandes populações de animais de interesse agropecuário.

Apresentamos uma versão inicial da solução em desenvolvimento para estimação dos efeitos desejados através do modelo animal univariado, utilizando duas abordagens distintas para a obtenção do melhor estimador linear não viesado (BLUP) dos parâmetros do modelo.

Generalized hydrodynamics of a (1+1)-dimensional integrable scattering theory with roaming trajectories

The emergence of hydrodynamic features in off-equilibrium (1 + 1)-dimensional integrable quantum systems has been the object of increasing attention in recent years. In this Master Thesis, we combine Thermodynamic Bethe Ansatz (TBA) techniques for finite-temperature quantum field theories with the Generalized Hydrodynamics (GHD) picture to provide a theoretical and numerical analysis of Zamolodchikov’s staircase model both at thermal equilibrium and in inhomogeneous generalized Gibbs ensembles. The staircase model is a diagonal (1 + 1)-dimensional integrable scattering theory with the remarkable property of roaming between infinitely many critical points when moving along a renormalization group trajectory. Namely, the finite-temperature dimensionless ground-state energy of the system approaches the central charges of all the minimal unitary conformal field theories (CFTs) M_p as the temperature varies. Within the GHD framework we develop a detailed study of the staircase model’s hydrodynamics and compare its quite surprising features to those displayed by a class of non-diagonal massless models flowing between adjacent points in the M_p series. Finally, employing both TBA and GHD techniques, we generalize to higher-spin local and quasi-local conserved charges the results obtained by B. Doyon and D. Bernard [1] for the steady-state energy current in off-equilibrium conformal field theories.

Evaluation and management of demersal stocks in the Adriatic: the case of common sole (Solea solea, L.) in the northern and central Adriatic Sea

This PhD thesis aimed to assess the status of common sole, one of the main commercial stocks in the Adriatic Sea, using a mix of conventional and innovative techniques to provide more reliable estimates of stock status compared to past advice. First, a meta-analysis was carried out using data-poor assessment model to analyze the whole catch assemblage of rapido fishery. The outcomes were used to estimate rebuilding time and forecast catches under different harvest control rule scenarios, with a reduction of 20% of fishing effort being suggested as a way to allow most of the species to recover to sustainable levels. Secondly, an ensemble of data-rich assessment models was developed to better incorporate uncertainty by using alternative hypotheses of main parameters. This was the first time an ensemble of models has been used in the Mediterranean to provide management advice. Consistent with data-poor analysis results, the ensemble outcomes indicated that the common sole stock was showing a recovering trend probably due to the effective management actions underway in the area rather than the moderate effort reduction according to the actual management plan. Moreover, back-calculation measurements were used to fit and compare monophasic and biphasic growth curves through the use of non-linear mixed effects models. The analyses revealed that the fitting of the biphasic curve was superior, confirming the theory that growth in size would decrease as a consequence of reproductive effort. A stock assessment simulation showed how the use of the monophasic pattern would result in a critical overestimation of biomass that could lead to a greater risk of overfishing. As a final step, a simulation-testing procedure was applied to determine the best performing reference points using stock-specific characteristic. The procedure could be routinely adopted to increase transparency in reference points calculation enhancing the credibility of scientific advice.

Design and management of a supply chain: a joint location-inventory problem under uncertainty (Part A)

In this paper, a joint location-inventory model is proposed that simultaneously optimises strategic supply chain design decisions such as facility location and customer allocation to facilities, and tactical-operational inventory management and production scheduling decisions. All this is analysed in a context of demand uncertainty and supply uncertainty. While demand uncertainty stems from potential fluctuations in customer demands over time, supply-side uncertainty is associated with the risk of “disruption” to which facilities may be subject. The latter is caused by external factors such as natural disasters, strikes, changes of ownership and information technology security incidents. The proposed model is formulated as a non-linear mixed integer programming problem to minimise the expected total cost, which includes four basic cost items: the fixed cost of locating facilities at candidate sites, the cost of transport from facilities to customers, the cost of working inventory, and the cost of safety stock. Next, since the optimisation problem is very complex and the number of evaluable instances is very low, a "matheuristic" solution is presented. This approach has a twofold objective: on the one hand, it considers a larger number of facilities and customers within the network in order to reproduce a supply chain configuration that more closely reflects a real-world context; on the other hand, it serves to generate a starting solution and perform a series of iterations to try to improve it. Thanks to this algorithm, it was possible to obtain a solution characterised by a lower total system cost than that observed for the initial solution. The study concludes with some reflections and the description of possible future insights.

Comparação entre o dano muscular de flexores do cotovelo e extensores do joelho em idosos= : Muscle damage comparison between elbow flexors and knee extensors in older adults

Universidade Estadual de Campinas . Faculdade de Educação Física

Association between osteoporosis and rheumatoid arthritis in women: a cross-sectional study

CONTEXT AND OBJECTIVES: Osteoporosis has frequently been observed in patients with rheumatoid arthritis. The present study was undertaken in order to evaluate factors associated with osteoporosis among women with rheumatoid arthritis. DESIGN AND SETTING: Cross-sectional study, carried out in a public hospital in São Paulo. METHODS: The participants were 83 women with rheumatoid arthritis (53.7 ± 10.0 years old). Bone mineral density (BMD) and body composition were measured by dual energy X-ray absorptiometry. The patients were divided into three groups according to BMD: group 1, normal BMD (n = 24); group 2, osteopenia (n = 38); and group 3, osteoporosis (n = 21). Tests were performed to compare differences in means and correlations, with adjustments for age, duration of disease and cumulative corticosteroid. The relationships between clinical factors, physical activity score, dietary intake, body composition and biochemical parameters were analyzed using linear regression models. RESULTS: Mean calcium, vitamin D and omega-6 intakes were lower than the recommendations. Associations were found between BMD and age, disease duration, parathyroid hormone concentration and fat intake. The linear regression model showed that being older, with more years of disease and lower weight were negatively correlated with BMD [Total femur = 0.552 + 0.06 (weight) + 0.019 (total physical activity) - 0.05 (age) - 0.003 (disease duration); R² = 48.1; P < 0.001]. CONCLUSION: The present study indicates that nutritional factors and body composition are associated with bone mass in women with rheumatoid arthritis.

Determinantes do índice de massa corporal em adolescentes de escolas públicas de Piracicaba, São Paulo

O objetivo do presente estudo foi verificar os fatores determinantes do índice de massa corporal (IMC) de adolescentes matriculados nas escolas públicas de Piracicaba, São Paulo. A amostra foi constituída por 328 adolescentes de ambos os sexos, com idade mínima de dez anos. Verificou-se peso, estatura, maturação sexual, atividade física e consumo alimentar. Foi usado um modelo de regressão linear múltipla para verificar a associação entre as variáveis independentes e o IMC. Enquanto as meninas consideradas fisicamente ativas apresentaram maior média de IMC do que as insuficientemente ativas, a média do IMC dos meninos não apresentou diferença estatística quando comparada entre meninos ativos e insuficientemente ativos. A maturação sexual foi determinante do IMC, para ambos os sexos, reforçando a ideia de que é fundamental levar em consideração essa variável em estudos que avaliam o estado nutricional em adolescentes. Acredita-se que os métodos utilizados no presente estudo, os quais são normalmente utilizados em pesquisas semelhantes, apresentaram importantes limitações para avaliar a influência do nível de atividade física e do consumo alimentar sobre o IMC dos adolescentes. Dessa forma, ressalta-se a necessidade de aprimoramento desses métodos para adoção em futuros estudos.

E-Learning Used in a Training Course on Atraumatic Restorative Treatment (ART) for Brazilian Dentists

The purpose of this study was to assess the benefits of using e-learning resources in a dental training course on Atraumatic Restorative Treatment (ART). This e-course was given in a DVD format, which presented the ART technique and philosophy. The participants were twenty-four dentists from the Brazilian public health system. Prior to receiving the DVD, the dentists answered a questionnaire regarding their personal data, previous knowledge about ART, and general interest in training courses. The dentists also participated in an assessment process consisting of a test applied before and after the course. A single researcher corrected the tests, and intraexaminer reproducibility was calculated (kappa=0.89). Paired t-tests were carried out to compare the means between the assessments, showing a significant improvement in the performance of the subjects on the test taken after the course (p<0.05). A linear regression model was used with the difference between the means as the outcome. A greater improvement on the test results was observed among female dentists (p=0.034), dentists working for a shorter period of time in the public health system (p=0.042), and dentists who used the ART technique only for urgent and/or temporary treatment (p=0.010). In conclusion, e-learning has the potential of improving the knowledge that dentists working in the public health system have about ART, especially those with less clinical experience and less knowledge about the subject.

Espacialização da temperatura do ar anual no estado de Alagoas com diferentes modelos digitais de elevação e resoluções espaciais

The aim of this study was to establish a digital elevation model and its horizontal resolution to interpolate the annual air temperature for the Alagoas State by means of multiple linear regression models. A multiple linear regression model was adjusted to series (11 to 34 years) of annual air temperatures obtained from 28 weather stations in the states of Alagoas, Bahia, Pernambuco and Sergipe, in the Northeast of Brazil, in function of latitude, longitude and altitude. The elevation models SRTM and GTOPO30 were used in the analysis, with original resolutions of 90 and 900 m, respectively. The SRTM was resampled for horizontal resolutions of 125, 250, 500, 750 and 900 m. For spatializing the annual mean air temperature for the state of Alagoas, a multiple linear regression model was used for each elevation and spatial resolution on a grid of the latitude and longitude. In Alagoas, estimates based on SRTM data resulted in a standard error of estimate (0.57 degrees C) and dispersion (r(2) = 0.62) lower than those obtained from GTOPO30 (0.93 degrees C and 0.20). In terms of SRTM resolutions, no significant differences were observed between the standard error (0.55 degrees C; 750 m - 0.58 degrees C; 250m) and dispersion (0.60; 500 m - 0.65; 750 m) estimates. The spatialization of annual air temperature in Alagoas, via multiple regression models applied to SRTM data showed higher concordance than that obtained with the GTOPO30, independent of the spatial resolution.

Non-Cardiac Surgery in Developing Countries: Epidemiological Aspects and Economical Opportunities - The Case of Brazil

Background: Worldwide distribution of surgical interventions is unequal. Developed countries account for the majority of surgeries and information about non-cardiac operations in developing countries is scarce. The purpose of our study was to describe the epidemiological data of non-cardiac surgeries performed in Brazil in the last years. Methods and Findings: This is a retrospective cohort study that investigated the time window from 1995 to 2007. We collected information from DATASUS, a national public health system database. The following variables were studied: number of surgeries, in-hospital expenses, blood transfusion related costs, length of stay and case fatality rates. The results were presented as sum, average and percentage. The trend analysis was performed by linear regression model. There were 32,659,513 non-cardiac surgeries performed in Brazil in thirteen years. An increment of 20.42% was observed in the number of surgeries in this period and nowadays nearly 3 million operations are performed annually. The cost of these procedures has increased tremendously in the last years. The increment of surgical cost was almost 200%. The total expenses related to surgical hospitalizations were more than $10 billion in all these years. The yearly cost of surgical procedures to public health system was more than $1.27 billion for all surgical hospitalizations, and in average, U$445.24 per surgical procedure. The total cost of blood transfusion was near $98 million in all years and annually approximately $10 million were spent in perioperative transfusion. The surgical mortality had an increment of 31.11% in the period. Actually, in 2007, the surgical mortality in Brazil was 1.77%. All the variables had a significant increment along the studied period: r square (r(2)) = 0.447 for the number of surgeries (P = 0.012), r(2) = 0.439 for in-hospital expenses (P = 0.014) and r(2) = 0.907 for surgical mortality (P = 0.0055). Conclusion: The volume of surgical procedures has increased substantially in Brazil through the past years. The expenditure related to these procedures and its mortality has also increased as the number of operations. Better planning of public health resource and strategies of investment are needed to supply the crescent demand of surgery in Brazil.

Changes in soil organic carbon storage under different agricultural management systems in the Southwest Amazon Region of Brazil

The Cerrado and Amazon regions of Brazil are probably the largest agricultural frontier of the world, and Could be a sink or source for C depending on the net effect of land use change and subsequent management on soil organic C pools. We evaluated the effects of agricultural management systems on soil organic C (SOC) stocks in the Brazilian states of Rondonia and Mato Grosso, and derived regional specific factors for soil C stock change associated with different management systems. We used 50 observations (data points) in this study, including 42 dealing with annual cropping practices and 8 dealing with perennial cropping, and analyzed the data in linear mixed-effect models. No tillage (NT) systems in Cerrado areas increased SOC Storage by 1.08 +/- 0.06 relative to SOC stocks under native conditions, while SOC storage increased by a modest factor of 1.01 +/- 0.17 in Cerradao and Amazon Forest conditions. Full tillage (FT) had negative effect on SOC storage relative to NT, decreasing SOC stocks by a factor of 0.94 +/- 0.04. but did not significantly reduce SOC stocks relative to native levels when adopted in the Cerrado region. Perennial cropping had a minimal impact on SOC stocks, estimated at a factor Value of 0.98 +/- 0.14, suggesting these systems maintain about 98% of the SOC stock found under native vegetation. The results Suggest that NT adoption may be increasing SOC with land use change from native vegetation to cropland management in the Cerrado region of Brazil. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The influence of peripheral afferent signals on the rating of perceived exertion and time to exhaustion during exercise at different intensities

This study determined which peripheral variables would better predict the rating of perceived exertion (RPE) and time to exhaustion (TE) during exercise at different intensities. Ten men performed exercises at first lactate threshold (LT1), second lactate threshold (LT2), 50% of the distance from LT1 to LT2 (TT(50%)), and 25% of the distance from LT2 to maximal power output (TW(25%)). Lactate, catecholamines, potassium, pH, glucose, (V) over dotO(2), VE, HR, respiratory rate (RR) and RPE were measured and plotted against the exercise duration for the slope calculation. Glucose, dopamine, and noradrenaline predicted RPE in TT(50%) (88%), LT2 (64%), and TW(25%) (77%), but no variable predicted RPE in LT1. RPE (55%), RPE+HR (86%), and RPE+RR (92% and 55%) predicted TE in LT1, TT(50%), LT2, and TW(25%), respectively. At intensities from TT(50%) to TW(25%), variables associated with brain activity seem to explain most of the RPE slope, and RPE (+HR and+RR) seems to predict the TE.