Intégration de méthodes de data mining dans le renseignement criminel : analyse par des structures issues de la théorie des graphes dans le profilage des stupéfiants

Data mining can be defined as the extraction of previously unknown and potentially useful information from large datasets. The main principle is to devise computer programs that run through databases and automatically seek deterministic patterns. It is applied in different fields of application, e.g., remote sensing, biometry, speech recognition, but has seldom been applied to forensic case data. The intrinsic difficulty related to the use of such data lies in its heterogeneity, which comes from the many different sources of information. The aim of this study is to highlight potential uses of pattern recognition that would provide relevant results from a criminal intelligence point of view. The role of data mining within a global crime analysis methodology is to detect all types of structures in a dataset. Once filtered and interpreted, those structures can point to previously unseen criminal activities. The interpretation of patterns for intelligence purposes is the final stage of the process. It allows the researcher to validate the whole methodology and to refine each step if necessary. An application to cutting agents found in illicit drug seizures was performed. A combinatorial approach was done, using the presence and the absence of products. Methods coming from the graph theory field were used to extract patterns in data constituted by links between products and place and date of seizure. A data mining process completed using graphing techniques is called ``graph mining''. Patterns were detected that had to be interpreted and compared with preliminary knowledge to establish their relevancy. The illicit drug profiling process is actually an intelligence process that uses preliminary illicit drug classes to classify new samples. Methods proposed in this study could be used \textit{a priori} to compare structures from preliminary and post-detection patterns. This new knowledge of a repeated structure may provide valuable complementary information to profiling and become a source of intelligence.

The illusion of control, the structures of prizes and the demand for football pools in Spain

Using data for all the fixtures for the seasons from 1972-73 to 2002-03, we estimate a dynamic model of demand for football pools in Spain paying attention to whether their main economic explanatory variable is the effective price of a ticket or the jackpot. Additionally, we evaluate the importance of the composition of the list of games in terms of whether First Division matches are included or not. Results show that the jackpot model is preferred to the effective price model, having important implications in terms of how the structure of the game should be changed in order to increase demand.

Asymptotic robust inferences in the analysis of mean and covariance structures

Structural equation models are widely used in economic, socialand behavioral studies to analyze linear interrelationships amongvariables, some of which may be unobservable or subject to measurementerror. Alternative estimation methods that exploit different distributionalassumptions are now available. The present paper deals with issues ofasymptotic statistical inferences, such as the evaluation of standarderrors of estimates and chi--square goodness--of--fit statistics,in the general context of mean and covariance structures. The emphasisis on drawing correct statistical inferences regardless of thedistribution of the data and the method of estimation employed. A(distribution--free) consistent estimate of $\Gamma$, the matrix ofasymptotic variances of the vector of sample second--order moments,will be used to compute robust standard errors and a robust chi--squaregoodness--of--fit squares. Simple modifications of the usual estimateof $\Gamma$ will also permit correct inferences in the case of multi--stage complex samples. We will also discuss the conditions under which,regardless of the distribution of the data, one can rely on the usual(non--robust) inferential statistics. Finally, a multivariate regressionmodel with errors--in--variables will be used to illustrate, by meansof simulated data, various theoretical aspects of the paper.

Multi-sample analysis of moment-structures: Asymptotic validity of inferences based on second-order moments

In moment structure analysis with nonnormal data, asymptotic valid inferences require the computation of a consistent (under general distributional assumptions) estimate of the matrix $\Gamma$ of asymptotic variances of sample second--order moments. Such a consistent estimate involves the fourth--order sample moments of the data. In practice, the use of fourth--order moments leads to computational burden and lack of robustness against small samples. In this paper we show that, under certain assumptions, correct asymptotic inferences can be attained when $\Gamma$ is replaced by a matrix $\Omega$ that involves only the second--order moments of the data. The present paper extends to the context of multi--sample analysis of second--order moment structures, results derived in the context of (simple--sample) covariance structure analysis (Satorra and Bentler, 1990). The results apply to a variety of estimation methods and general type of statistics. An example involving a test of equality of means under covariance restrictions illustrates theoretical aspects of the paper.

Scaled and adjusted restricted tests in multi-sample analysis of moment structures

We extend to score, Wald and difference test statistics the scaled and adjusted corrections to goodness-of-fit test statistics developed in Satorra and Bentler (1988a,b). The theory is framed in the general context of multisample analysis of moment structures, under general conditions on the distribution of observable variables. Computational issues, as well as the relation of the scaled and corrected statistics to the asymptotic robust ones, is discussed. A Monte Carlo study illustrates thecomparative performance in finite samples of corrected score test statistics.

Comparison of information structures

We introduce two ways of comparing information structures, say ${\cal I}$ and${\cal J}$. First we say that ${\cal I}$ is richer than ${\cal J}$ when forevery compact game $G$, all correlated equilibrium distributions of $G$ inducedby ${\cal J}$ are also induced by ${\cal I}$. Second, we say that ${\cal J}$is faithfully reproducable from ${\cal I}$ when all the players can computefrom their information in ${\cal I}$ ``new information'' that they could havereceived from ${\cal J}$. We prove that ${\cal I}$ is richer than ${\cal J}$if and only if ${\cal J}$ is faithfully reproducable from ${\cal I}$.

Wage structures and family economies in the Catalan textile industry in an age of nascent capitalism

This paper deals with changes in managerial practices in Catalonia in anage of nascent capitalism (1830-1925) and adaptive family strategies inorder to face the absence of state welfare. During the 19 t h Century andin the absence of recorded labor contracts, human resources of the firmwere organized by means of implicit contracts and informal labor markets.With the advent of scientific organization of labor, wage per hour workedbegan to be recorded. This is why in the 1920s the perfect competitionmodel applies to our case. On the other hand, in the same period, and inthe absence of state welfare, ideas stemming from cooperative game theoryapply to the pattern of household income formation. Kin related networkswere used to improve the living standards of the household. In thisparticular direction we also show that there was a demonstration effectby means of which migrant s living standards were higher than those ofnatives.

The modal nature of structures in ontic structural realism

Ontic structural realism is the view that structures are what is real in the first place in the domain of fundamental physics. The structures are usually conceived as including a primitive modality. However, it has not been spelled out as yet what exactly that modality amounts to. This paper proposes to fill this lacuna by arguing that the fundamental physical structures possess a causal essence, being powers. Applying the debate about causal vs. categorical properties in analytic metaphysics to ontic structural realism, I show that the standard argument against categorical and for causal properties holds for structures as well. Structural realism, as a position in the metaphysics of science that is a form of scientific realism, is committed to causal structures. The metaphysics of causal structures is supported by physics, and it can provide for a complete and coherent view of the world that includes all domains of empirical science.

Training in flexible intensive insulin therapy improves quality of life, decreases the risk of hypoglycaemia and ameliorates poor metabolic control in patients with type 1 diabetes.

AIM: Intensified insulin therapy has evolved to be the standard treatment of type 1 diabetes. However, it has been reported to increase significantly the risk of hypoglycaemia. We studied the effect of structured group teaching courses in flexible insulin therapy (FIT) on psychological and metabolic parameters in patients with type 1 diabetes. METHODS: We prospectively followed 45 type 1 diabetic patients of our outpatient clinic participating in 5 consecutive FIT teaching courses at the University Hospital of Basel. These courses consist of 7 weekly ambulatory evening group sessions. Patients were studied before and 1, 6, and 18 months after the course. Main outcome measures were glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c), severe hypoglycaemic events, quality of life (DQoL), diabetes self-control (IPC-9) and diabetes knowledge (DWT). RESULTS: Quality of life, self-control and diabetes knowledge improved after the FIT courses (all p<0.001). The frequency of severe hypoglycaemic events decreased ten-fold from 0.33 episodes/6 months at baseline to 0.03 episodes/6 months after 18 months (p<0.05). Baseline HbA1c was 7.2+/-1.1% and decreased in the subgroup with HbA1c > or = 8% from 8.4% to 7.8% (p<0.05). CONCLUSIONS: In an unselected, but relatively well-controlled population of type 1 diabetes, a structured, but not very time consuming FIT teaching programme in the outpatient setting improves psychological well-being and metabolic parameters.

Flexible multivariate GARCH modeling with an application to international stock markets

The goal of this paper is to estimate time-varying covariance matrices.Since the covariance matrix of financial returns is known to changethrough time and is an essential ingredient in risk measurement, portfolioselection, and tests of asset pricing models, this is a very importantproblem in practice. Our model of choice is the Diagonal-Vech version ofthe Multivariate GARCH(1,1) model. The problem is that the estimation ofthe general Diagonal-Vech model model is numerically infeasible indimensions higher than 5. The common approach is to estimate more restrictive models which are tractable but may not conform to the data. Our contributionis to propose an alternative estimation method that is numerically feasible,produces positive semi-definite conditional covariance matrices, and doesnot impose unrealistic a priori restrictions. We provide an empiricalapplication in the context of international stock markets, comparing thenew estimator to a number of existing ones.

Tubular Dysfunction in Idiopathic Nephrotic Syndrome

Objectives: To evaluate the degree of tubular involvement in INS at various stage of the disease. Methods: 19 patients with INS were studied. 13 were steroid responders (group 1). 5 of them had biopsy which showed MCD. 6 patients were non responder to steroid or were steroid dependant with frequent relapses (group 2). Biopsies showed 3 FSGS and 3 MCD. They were treated with prednisone, ciclosporin and/ or mycofenolate mofetil. Protein, microalbumin (ALB), alpha-microglobulin (AMG), N-acetyl-beta-D-glucosaminidase (NAG) and creatinine (cr) were measured in each urine sample. Patients were considered in remission if prot/ cr ratio (g/mol) was < 20 (group 1a and 2a), and in relapse if the ratio was > 200 (group 1c and 2c). Some patients in group 1 had non nephrotic proteinuria (group 1b). Tubular dysfunction was defi ned by NAG/cr ratio (mg/mmol) > 0.86 or by AMG/cr ratio (mg/mmol) > 1.58. Results: Prot/cr ALB/cr NAG/cr AMG/cr Group 1a 10.3 ± 4.1 1.1 ± 1.0 0.19 ± 0.12 1.40 ± 0.97 Group 1b 60.4 ± 63.4 42.8 ± 66.7 0.39 ± 0.21 1.20 ± 0.56 Group 1c 713.3 ± 276.8 799.8 ± 534.9 2.25 ± 1.86* 4.25 ± 2.09* Group 2a 11.3 ± 6.1 4.7 ± 5.7 0.26 ± 0.19 1.18 ± 0.60 Group 2c 914.9 ± 718.6 682.9 ± 589.3 3.00 ± 2.72* 5.47 ± 4.30* Results are mean ± SD, p < 0.001 compared to group 1a and 2a No difference was observed between group 1 and group 2 neither in remission nor in relapse. Conclusions: These data indicate that tubular dysfunction occurs in INS but only in patients in relapse. In this population, tubular dysfunction was independent of the severity of the nephrotic syndrome, the treatment protocol and the histopathology.

Tectonics of the Simplon massif and Lepontine gneiss dome: deformation structures due to collision between the underthrusting European plate and the Adriatic indenter

this study presents a review of published geological data, combined with original observations on the tectonics of the simplon massif and the Lepontine gneiss dome in the Western Alps. New observations concern the geometry of the Oligocene Vanzone back fold, formed under amphibolite facies conditions, and of its root between Domodossola and Locarno, which is cut at an acute angle by the Miocene, epi- to anchizonal, dextral centovalli strike-slip fault. the structures of the simplon massif result from collision over 50 Ma between two plate boundaries with a different geometry: the underthrusted European plate and the Adriatic indenter. Detailed mapping and analysis of a complex structural interference pattern, combined with observations on the metamorphic grade of the superimposed structures and radiometric data, allow a kinematic model to be developed for this zone of oblique continental collision. the following main Alpine tectonic phases and structures may be distinguished: 1. NW-directed nappe emplacement, starting in the Early Eocene (similar to 50 Ma); 2. W, SW and S- verging transverse folds; 3. transpressional movements on the dextral simplon ductile shear zone since similar to 32 Ma; 4. formation of the Bergell - Vanzone backfolds and of the southern steep belt during the Oligocene, emplacement of the mantle derived 31 - 29 Ma Bergell and Biella granodiorites and porphyritic andesites as well as intrusions of 29-25 Ma crustal aplites and pegmatites; 5. formation of the dextral discrete Rhone-Simplon line and the centovalli line during the Miocene, accompanied by the pull-apart development of the Lepontine gneiss dome - Dent blanche (Valpelline) depression. It is suggested that movements of shortening in fan shaped NW, W and sW directions accompanied the more regular NW- to WNW-directed displacement of the Adriatic indenter during continental collision.