Building the niche through time: using 13,000 years of data to predict the effects of climate change on three tree species in Europe

Aim Species distribution models (SDMs) based on current species ranges underestimate the potential distribution when projected in time and/or space. A multi-temporal model calibration approach has been suggested as an alternative, and we evaluate this using 13,000 years of data. Location Europe. Methods We used fossil-based records of presence for Picea abies, Abies alba and Fagus sylvatica and six climatic variables for the period 13,000 to 1000yr bp. To measure the contribution of each 1000-year time step to the total niche of each species (the niche measured by pooling all the data), we employed a principal components analysis (PCA) calibrated with data over the entire range of possible climates. Then we projected both the total niche and the partial niches from single time frames into the PCA space, and tested if the partial niches were more similar to the total niche than random. Using an ensemble forecasting approach, we calibrated SDMs for each time frame and for the pooled database. We projected each model to current climate and evaluated the results against current pollen data. We also projected all models into the future. Results Niche similarity between the partial and the total-SDMs was almost always statistically significant and increased through time. SDMs calibrated from single time frames gave different results when projected to current climate, providing evidence of a change in the species realized niches through time. Moreover, they predicted limited climate suitability when compared with the total-SDMs. The same results were obtained when projected to future climates. Main conclusions The realized climatic niche of species differed for current and future climates when SDMs were calibrated considering different past climates. Building the niche as an ensemble through time represents a way forward to a better understanding of a species' range and its ecology in a changing climate.

Reconstruction Of Past Climate Conditions Over Central Europe From Groundwater Data

Here we present a 30 000 years low-resolution climate record reconstructed from groundwater data. The investigated site is located in the Bohemian Cretaceous Basin, in the corridor between the Scandinavian ice sheet and the Alpine ice field. Noble gas temperatures (NGT), obtained from groundwater data, preserved multicentennial temperature variability and indicated a cooling of at least 5-7 °C during the last glacial maximum (LGM). This is further confirmed by the depleted δ18O and δ2H values at the LGM. High excess air (ΔNe) at the end of the Pleistocene is possibly related to abrupt changes in recharge dynamics due to progression and retreat of ice covers and permafrost. These results agree with the fact that during the LGM permafrost and small glaciers developed in the inner valleys of the Giant Mountains (located in the watershed of the aquifers). A temporal decrease of deuterium excess from the pre-industrial Holocene to present days is linked to an increase of the air temperatures, and probably also to an increase of water pressure at the source region of precipitation over the past few hundred years

The persistence of lifestyles: rates and correlates of homicide in Western Europe from 1960 to 2010

This article analyses rates and correlates of homicide in 15 West European countries from 1960 to 2010. The results show that the levels of homicide in 2010 and the trends in homicide from 1960 to 2010 are not related to any of the traditional demographic and socioeconomic predictors of crime. Homicide victimization rates show an increase from the mid-1960s until the early 1990s, and a decrease since then. Victims of both genders and all group ages follow the same trend, except in the case of infanticide, which decreased during the whole period. These results do not support the hypothesis of a homicide trend driven by the evolution of victimization of young men in public space. The authors propose an explanation based on a lifestyle approach.

Direct evidence for the existence of dairying farms in prehistoric Central Europe (4th millennium BC)

The molecular and isotopic chemistry of organic residues from archaeological potsherds was used to obtain further insight into the dietary trends and economies at the Constance lake-shore Neolithic settlements. The archaeological organic residues from the Early Late Neolithic (3922-3902 BC) site Hornstaad-Hornle IA/Germany are, at present, the oldest archaeological samples analysed at the Institute of Mineralogy and Geochemistry of the University of Lausanne. The approach includes 13C/12C and 15N/14N ratios of the bulk organic residues, fatty acids distribution and 13C/12C ratios of individual fatty acids. The results are compared with those obtained from the over 500 years younger Neolithic (3384-3370 BC) settlement of Arbon Bleiche 3/Switzerland and with samples of modern vegetable oils and fat of animals that have been fed exclusively on C3 forage grasses. The overall fatty acid composition (C9 to C24 range, maximizing at C14 and C16), the bulk 13C/12C and 15N/14N ratios (delta13C, delta15N) and the 13C/12C ratios of palmitic (C16:0), stearic (C18:0) and oleic acids (C18:1) of the organic residues indicate that most of the studied samples (25 from 47 samples and 5 from 41 in the delta13C18:0 vs. delta13C16:0 and delta13C18:0 vs. delta13C18:1 diagrams, respectively) from Hornstaad-Hornle IA and Arbon Bleiche 3 sherds contain fat residues of pre-industrial ruminant milk, and young suckling calf/lamb adipose. These data provide direct proof of milk and meat (mainly from young suckling calves) consumption and farming practices for a sustainable dairying in Neolithic villages in central Europe around 4000 BC.dagger

The EuroSIDA study: Regional differences in the HIV-1 epidemic and treatment response to antiretroviral therapy among HIV-infected patients across Europe--a review of published results.

EuroSIDA is a pan-European observational study that follows 14,265 HIV-infected patients from 31 European countries, Israel and Argentina, of which 2,560 are patients from eastern Europe (EE). The study group has performed several analyses addressing regional differences in the HIV-epidemic across Europe, where all countries were divided into five regions: south, west central, north, east central Europe and EE. Significant regional differences in patients' characteristics and pattern of AIDS diagnoses were documented. More patients from EE were diagnosed with tuberculosis compared to other regions. Significantly fewer HIV-infected patients in EE, who fulfilled the criteria for starting combination antiretroviral therapy (cART), actually received cART as compared with other regions of Europe. Those, receiving cART in EE had a lower initial virologic response rate irrespectively of the regimen used, although it has improved within years. Besides, treatment failure was more common in this region. Thus, improvements in the clinical management of HIV patients in EE are urgently needed. Strategies include creating scientific collaborations for HIV clinicians as well as teaching clinicians about the most advanced HIV management at clinically oriented courses held in eastern Europe.

An epidemiologic study to determine the prevalence of the HLA-B*5701 allele among HIV-positive patients in Europe.

OBJECTIVES: HLA-B*5701 is a major histocompatibility complex class I allele associated with an immunologically-mediated hypersensitivity reaction to abacavir. The objectives of this study were to evaluate HLA-B*5701 prevalence among European, HIV-1-infected patients and to compare the local and central laboratory screening results. METHODS: Data were combined from six multicentre, prospective studies involving 10 European countries in which HIV-1-infected patients (irrespective of treatment experience or previous HLA-B*5701 screening), >or=18 years of age, were evaluated for HLA-B*5701 carriage, determined by the central and local laboratory methods. RESULTS: A total of 9720 patients from 272 centres were included in the analysis. The overall estimate of HLA-B*5701 prevalence in Europe was 4.98%, with country-specific estimates ranging from 1.53 to 7.75%. HLA-B*5701 prevalence was highest in the self-reported white population (6.49%) and lowest in the black population (0.39%). Local laboratory results had a high specificity (99.9%) and sensitivity (99.2%) when compared with the central laboratory results. CONCLUSION: This study supports data from previous studies regarding the prevalence of HLA-B*5701 in the HIV population and the variation of HLA-B*5701 prevalence between different racial groups. The high specificity and sensitivity of local laboratory results, suggests that clinicians can be confident in using local laboratories for pretreatment HLA-B*5701 screening. However, it is essential that local laboratories participate in HLA-B*5701-specific quality assurance programs to maintain 100% sensitivity. In HIV-infected patients, pretreatment HLA-B*5701 screening may allow more informed decisions regarding abacavir use and has the potential to significantly reduce the frequency of abacavir-related hypersensitivity reactions and costs associated with managing these reactions.