A stratified approach for modeling the distribution of a threatened ant species in the Swiss National Park

We present models predicting the potential distribution of a threatened ant species, Formica exsecta Nyl., in the Swiss National Park ( SNP). Data to fit the models have been collected according to a random-stratified design with an equal number of replicates per stratum. The basic aim of such a sampling strategy is to allow the formal testing of biological hypotheses about those factors most likely to account for the distribution of the modeled species. The stratifying factors used in this study were: vegetation, slope angle and slope aspect, the latter two being used as surrogates of solar radiation, considered one of the basic requirements of F. exsecta. Results show that, although the basic stratifying predictors account for more than 50% of the deviance, the incorporation of additional non-spatially explicit predictors into the model, as measured in the field, allows for an increased model performance (up to nearly 75%). However, this was not corroborated by permutation tests. Implementation on a national scale was made for one model only, due to the difficulty of obtaining similar predictors on this scale. The resulting map on the national scale suggests that the species might once have had a broader distribution in Switzerland. Reasons for its particular abundance within the SNP might possibly be related to habitat fragmentation and vegetation transformation outside the SNP boundaries.

Src is activated by the nuclear receptor peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor β/δ in ultraviolet radiation-induced skin cancer.

Although non-melanoma skin cancer (NMSC) is the most common human cancer and its incidence continues to rise worldwide, the mechanisms underlying its development remain incompletely understood. Here, we unveil a cascade of events involving peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor (PPAR) β/δ and the oncogene Src, which promotes the development of ultraviolet (UV)-induced skin cancer in mice. UV-induced PPARβ/δ activity, which directly stimulated Src expression, increased Src kinase activity and enhanced the EGFR/Erk1/2 signalling pathway, resulting in increased epithelial-to-mesenchymal transition (EMT) marker expression. Consistent with these observations, PPARβ/δ-null mice developed fewer and smaller skin tumours, and a PPARβ/δ antagonist prevented UV-dependent Src stimulation. Furthermore, the expression of PPARβ/δ positively correlated with the expression of SRC and EMT markers in human skin squamous cell carcinoma (SCC), and critically, linear models applied to several human epithelial cancers revealed an interaction between PPARβ/δ and SRC and TGFβ1 transcriptional levels. Taken together, these observations motivate the future evaluation of PPARβ/δ modulators to attenuate the development of several epithelial cancers.

Wavelet analysis residual kriging vs. neural network residual kriging

This paper deals with the problem of spatial data mapping. A new method based on wavelet interpolation and geostatistical prediction (kriging) is proposed. The method - wavelet analysis residual kriging (WARK) - is developed in order to assess the problems rising for highly variable data in presence of spatial trends. In these cases stationary prediction models have very limited application. Wavelet analysis is used to model large-scale structures and kriging of the remaining residuals focuses on small-scale peculiarities. WARK is able to model spatial pattern which features multiscale structure. In the present work WARK is applied to the rainfall data and the results of validation are compared with the ones obtained from neural network residual kriging (NNRK). NNRK is also a residual-based method, which uses artificial neural network to model large-scale non-linear trends. The comparison of the results demonstrates the high quality performance of WARK in predicting hot spots, reproducing global statistical characteristics of the distribution and spatial correlation structure.

Parameterized expectations approach; Some practical issues

We discuss some practical issues related to the use of the Parameterized Expectations Approach (PEA) for solving non-linear stochastic dynamic models with rational expectations. This approach has been applied in models of macroeconomics, financial economics, economic growth, contracttheory, etc. It turns out to be a convenient algorithm, especially when there is a large number of state variables and stochastic shocks in the conditional expectations. We discuss some practical issues having to do with the application of the algorithm, and we discuss a Fortran program for implementing the algorithm that is available through the internet.We discuss these issues in a battery of six examples.

Determinants of linear judgment: A meta-analysis of lens model studies

The mathematical representation of Brunswik s lens model has been usedextensively to study human judgment and provides a unique opportunity to conduct ameta-analysis of studies that covers roughly five decades. Specifically, we analyzestatistics of the lens model equation (Tucker, 1964) associated with 259 different taskenvironments obtained from 78 papers. In short, we find on average fairly high levelsof judgmental achievement and note that people can achieve similar levels of cognitiveperformance in both noisy and predictable environments. Although overall performancevaries little between laboratory and field studies, both differ in terms of components ofperformance and types of environments (numbers of cues and redundancy). An analysisof learning studies reveals that the most effective form of feedback is information aboutthe task. We also analyze empirically when bootstrapping is more likely to occur. Weconclude by indicating shortcomings of the kinds of studies conducted to date, limitationsin the lens model methodology, and possibilities for future research.

Estimating overidentified, nonrecursive, time-varying coefficients structural VARs

This paper provides a method to estimate time varying coefficients structuralVARs which are non-recursive and potentially overidentified. The procedureallows for linear and non-linear restrictions on the parameters, maintainsthe multi-move structure of standard algorithms and can be used toestimate structural models with different identification restrictions. We studythe transmission of monetary policy shocks and compare the results with thoseobtained with traditional methods.

What other sciences look like

In order to have references for discussing mathematical menus in political science, Ireview the most common types of mathematical formulae used in physics andchemistry, as well as some mathematical advances in economics. Several issues appearrelevant: variables should be well defined and measurable; the relationships betweenvariables may be non-linear; the direction of causality should be clearly identified andnot assumed on a priori grounds. On these bases, theoretically-driven equations onpolitical matters can be validated by empirical tests and can predict observablephenomena.

My older sibling was drunk - younger siblings' drunkenness in relation to parental monitoring and the parent-adolescent relationship.

This study explored the links between having older siblings who get drunk, satisfaction with the parent-adolescent relationship, parental monitoring, and adolescents' risky drinking. Regression models were conducted based on a national representative sample of 3725 8th to 10th graders in Switzerland (mean age 15.0, SD = .93) who indicated having older siblings. Results showed that both parental factors and older siblings' drinking behaviour shape younger siblings' frequency of risky drinking. Parental monitoring showed a linear dose-response relationship, and siblings' influence had an additive effect. There was a non-linear interaction effect between parent-adolescent relationship and older sibling's drunkenness. The findings suggest that, apart from avoiding an increasingly unsatisfactory relationship with their children, parental monitoring appears to be important in preventing risky drinking by their younger children, even if the older sibling drinks in such a way. However, a satisfying relationship with parents does not seem to be sufficient to counterbalance older siblings' influence.

Forecasting with missing data: Application to a real case

This paper presents a comparative analysis of linear and mixed modelsfor short term forecasting of a real data series with a high percentage of missing data. Data are the series of significant wave heights registered at regular periods of three hours by a buoy placed in the Bay of Biscay.The series is interpolated with a linear predictor which minimizes theforecast mean square error. The linear models are seasonal ARIMA models and themixed models have a linear component and a non linear seasonal component.The non linear component is estimated by a non parametric regression of dataversus time. Short term forecasts, no more than two days ahead, are of interestbecause they can be used by the port authorities to notice the fleet.Several models are fitted and compared by their forecasting behavior.

How quickly should we titrate antihypertensive medication? Systematic review modelling blood pressure response from trial data.

Context There are no evidence syntheses available to guide clinicians on when to titrate antihypertensive medication after initiation. Objective To model the blood pressure (BP) response after initiating antihypertensive medication. Data sources electronic databases including Medline, Embase, Cochrane Register and reference lists up to December 2009. Study selection Trials that initiated antihypertensive medication as single therapy in hypertensive patients who were either drug naive or had a placebo washout from previous drugs. Data extraction Office BP measurements at a minimum of two weekly intervals for a minimum of 4 weeks. An asymptotic approach model of BP response was assumed and non-linear mixed effects modelling used to calculate model parameters. Results and conclusions Eighteen trials that recruited 4168 patients met inclusion criteria. The time to reach 50% of the maximum estimated BP lowering effect was 1 week (systolic 0.91 weeks, 95% CI 0.74 to 1.10; diastolic 0.95, 0.75 to 1.15). Models incorporating drug class as a source of variability did not improve fit of the data. Incorporating the presence of a titration schedule improved model fit for both systolic and diastolic pressure. Titration increased both the predicted maximum effect and the time taken to reach 50% of the maximum (systolic 1.2 vs 0.7 weeks; diastolic 1.4 vs 0.7 weeks). Conclusions Estimates of the maximum efficacy of antihypertensive agents can be made early after starting therapy. This knowledge will guide clinicians in deciding when a newly started antihypertensive agent is likely to be effective or not at controlling BP.

Dung beetle (Coleoptera, Scarabaeidae) assemblage of a highly fragmented landscape of Atlantic forest: from small to the largest fragments of northeastern Brazilian region

Human activities in tropical forests are the main causes of forest fragmentation. According to historical factor in deforestation processes, forest remnants exhibit different sizes and shapes. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the dung beetle assemblage on fragments of different degree of sizes. Sampling was performed during rainy and dry season of 2010 in six fragments of Atlantic forest, using pitfall traps baited with excrement and carrion. Also, we used two larger fragments as control. We used General Linear Models to determine whether the fragments presented distinguished dung beetle abundance and richness. Analysis of Similarities and Non-Metric Multidimensional Scaling were used to determine whether the dung beetle assemblage was grouped according to species composition. A total of 3352 individuals were collected and 19 species were identified in the six fragments sampled. Dung beetle abundance exhibited a shift according to fragment size; however, richness did not change among fragments evaluated. Also, fragments sampled and the two controls exhibited distinct species composition. The distinction on abundance of dung beetles among fragments may be related to different amount of resource available in each one. It is likely that the dung beetle richness did not distinguish among the different fragments due to the even distribution of the mammal communities in these patches, and consequent equal dung diversity. We conclude that larger fragments encompass higher abundance of dung beetle and distinct species. However, for a clearer understanding of effects of fragmentation on dung beetles in Atlantic forest, studies evaluating narrower variations of larger fragments should be conducted.

Changing landscapes of Switzerland: assessing effects of historic and future land uses and land covers on the occurrence of selected butterfly species

Summary Landscapes are continuously changing. Natural forces of change such as heavy rainfall and fires can exert lasting influences on their physical form. However, changes related to human activities have often shaped landscapes more distinctly. In Western Europe, especially modern agricultural practices and the expanse of overbuilt land have left their marks in the landscapes since the middle of the 20th century. In the recent years men realised that mare and more changes that were formerly attributed to natural forces might indirectly be the result of their own action. Perhaps the most striking landscape change indirectly driven by human activity we can witness in these days is the large withdrawal of Alpine glaciers. Together with the landscapes also habitats of animal and plant species have undergone vast and sometimes rapid changes that have been hold responsible for the ongoing loss of biodiversity. Thereby, still little knowledge is available about probable effects of the rate of landscape change on species persistence and disappearance. Therefore, the development and speed of land use/land cover in the Swiss communes between the 1950s and 1990s were reconstructed using 10 parameters from agriculture and housing censuses, and were further correlated with changes in butterfly species occurrences. Cluster analyses were used to detect spatial patterns of change on broad spatial scales. Thereby, clusters of communes showing similar changes or transformation rates were identified for single decades and put into a temporally dynamic sequence. The obtained picture on the changes showed a prevalent replacement of non-intensive agriculture by intensive practices, a strong spreading of urban communes around city centres, and transitions towards larger farm sizes in the mountainous areas. Increasing transformation rates toward more intensive agricultural managements were especially found until the 1970s, whereas afterwards the trends were commonly negative. However, transformation rates representing the development of residential buildings showed positive courses at any time. The analyses concerning the butterfly species showed that grassland species reacted sensitively to the density of livestock in the communes. This might indicate the augmented use of dry grasslands as cattle pastures that show altered plant species compositions. Furthermore, these species also decreased in communes where farms with an agricultural area >5ha have disappeared. The species of the wetland habitats were favoured in communes with smaller fractions of agricultural areas and lower densities of large farms (>10ha) but did not show any correlation to transformation rates. It was concluded from these analyses that transformation rates might influence species disappearance to a certain extent but that states of the environmental predictors might generally outweigh the importance of the corresponding rates. Information on the current distribution of species is evident for nature conservation. Planning authorities that define priority areas for species protection or examine and authorise construction projects need to know about the spatial distribution of species. Hence, models that simulate the potential spatial distribution of species have become important decision tools. The underlying statistical analyses such as the widely used generalised linear models (GLM) often rely on binary species presence-absence data. However, often only species presence data have been colleted, especially for vagrant, rare or cryptic species such as butterflies or reptiles. Modellers have thus introduced randomly selected absence data to design distribution models. Yet, selecting false absence data might bias the model results. Therefore, we investigated several strategies to select more reliable absence data to model the distribution of butterfly species based on historical distribution data. The results showed that better models were obtained when historical data from longer time periods were considered. Furthermore, model performance was additionally increased when long-term data of species that show similar habitat requirements as the modelled species were used. This successful methodological approach was further applied to assess consequences of future landscape changes on the occurrence of butterfly species inhabiting dry grasslands or wetlands. These habitat types have been subjected to strong deterioration in the recent decades, what makes their protection a future mission. Four spatially explicit scenarios that described (i) ongoing land use changes as observed between 1985 and 1997, (ii) liberalised agricultural markets, and (iii) slightly and (iv) strongly lowered agricultural production provided probable directions of landscape change. Current species-environment relationships were derived from a statistical model and used to predict future occurrence probabilities in six major biogeographical regions in Switzerland, comprising the Jura Mountains, the Plateau, the Northern and Southern Alps, as well as the Western and Eastern Central Alps. The main results were that dry grasslands species profited from lowered agricultural production, whereas overgrowth of open areas in the liberalisation scenario might impair species occurrence. The wetland species mostly responded with decreases in their occurrence probabilities in the scenarios, due to a loss of their preferred habitat. Further analyses about factors currently influencing species occurrences confirmed anthropogenic causes such as urbanisation, abandonment of open land, and agricultural intensification. Hence, landscape planning should pay more attention to these forces in areas currently inhabited by these butterfly species to enable sustainable species persistence. In this thesis historical data were intensively used to reconstruct past developments and to make them useful for current investigations. Yet, the availability of historical data and the analyses on broader spatial scales has often limited the explanatory power of the conducted analyses. Meaningful descriptors of former habitat characteristics and abundant species distribution data are generally sparse, especially for fine scale analyses. However, this situation can be ameliorated by broadening the extent of the study site and the used grain size, as was done in this thesis by considering the whole of Switzerland with its communes. Nevertheless, current monitoring projects and data recording techniques are promising data sources that might allow more detailed analyses about effects of long-term species reactions on landscape changes in the near future. This work, however, also showed the value of historical species distribution data as for example their potential to locate still unknown species occurrences. The results might therefore contribute to further research activities that investigate current and future species distributions considering the immense richness of historical distribution data. Résumé Les paysages changent continuellement. Des farces naturelles comme des pluies violentes ou des feux peuvent avoir une influence durable sur la forme du paysage. Cependant, les changements attribués aux activités humaines ont souvent modelé les paysages plus profondément. Depuis les années 1950 surtout, les pratiques agricoles modernes ou l'expansion des surfaces d'habitat et d'infrastructure ont caractérisé le développement du paysage en Europe de l'Ouest. Ces dernières années, l'homme a commencé à réaliser que beaucoup de changements «naturels » pourraient indirectement résulter de ses propres activités. Le changement de paysage le plus apparent dont nous sommes témoins de nos jours est probablement l'immense retraite des glaciers alpins. Avec les paysages, les habitats des animaux et des plantes ont aussi été exposés à des changements vastes et quelquefois rapides, tenus pour coresponsable de la continuelle diminution de la biodiversité. Cependant, nous savons peu des effets probables de la rapidité des changements du paysage sur la persistance et la disparition des espèces. Le développement et la rapidité du changement de l'utilisation et de la couverture du sol dans les communes suisses entre les années 50 et 90 ont donc été reconstruits au moyen de 10 variables issues des recensements agricoles et résidentiels et ont été corrélés avec des changements de présence des papillons diurnes. Des analyses de groupes (Cluster analyses) ont été utilisées pour détecter des arrangements spatiaux de changements à l'échelle de la Suisse. Des communes avec des changements ou rapidités comparables ont été délimitées pour des décennies séparées et ont été placées en séquence temporelle, en rendrent une certaine dynamique du changement. Les résultats ont montré un remplacement répandu d'une agriculture extensive des pratiques intensives, une forte expansion des faubourgs urbains autour des grandes cités et des transitions vers de plus grandes surfaces d'exploitation dans les Alpes. Dans le cas des exploitations agricoles, des taux de changement croissants ont été observés jusqu'aux années 70, alors que la tendance a généralement été inversée dans les années suivantes. Par contre, la vitesse de construction des nouvelles maisons a montré des courbes positives pendant les 50 années. Les analyses sur la réaction des papillons diurnes ont montré que les espèces des prairies sèches supportaient une grande densité de bétail. Il est possible que dans ces communes beaucoup des prairies sèches aient été fertilisées et utilisées comme pâturages, qui ont une autre composition floristique. De plus, les espèces ont diminué dans les communes caractérisées par une rapide perte des fermes avec une surface cultivable supérieure à 5 ha. Les espèces des marais ont été favorisées dans des communes avec peu de surface cultivable et peu de grandes fermes, mais n'ont pas réagi aux taux de changement. Il en a donc été conclu que la rapidité des changements pourrait expliquer les disparitions d'espèces dans certains cas, mais que les variables prédictives qui expriment des états pourraient être des descripteurs plus importants. Des informations sur la distribution récente des espèces sont importantes par rapport aux mesures pour la conservation de la nature. Pour des autorités occupées à définir des zones de protection prioritaires ou à autoriser des projets de construction, ces informations sont indispensables. Les modèles de distribution spatiale d'espèces sont donc devenus des moyens de décision importants. Les méthodes statistiques courantes comme les modèles linéaires généralisés (GLM) demandent des données de présence et d'absence des espèces. Cependant, souvent seules les données de présence sont disponibles, surtout pour les animaux migrants, rares ou cryptiques comme des papillons ou des reptiles. C'est pourquoi certains modélisateurs ont choisi des absences au hasard, avec le risque d'influencer le résultat en choisissant des fausses absences. Nous avons établi plusieurs stratégies, basées sur des données de distribution historique des papillons diurnes, pour sélectionner des absences plus fiables. Les résultats ont démontré que de meilleurs modèles pouvaient être obtenus lorsque les données proviennent des périodes de temps plus longues. En plus, la performance des modèles a pu être augmentée en considérant des données de distribution à long terme d'espèces qui occupent des habitats similaires à ceux de l'espèce cible. Vu le succès de cette stratégie, elle a été utilisée pour évaluer les effets potentiels des changements de paysage futurs sur la distribution des papillons des prairies sèches et marais, deux habitats qui ont souffert de graves détériorations. Quatre scénarios spatialement explicites, décrivant (i) l'extrapolation des changements de l'utilisation de sol tels qu'observés entre 1985 et 1997, (ii) la libéralisation des marchés agricoles, et une production agricole (iii) légèrement amoindrie et (iv) fortement diminuée, ont été utilisés pour générer des directions de changement probables. Les relations actuelles entre la distribution des espèces et l'environnement ont été déterminées par le biais des modèles statistiques et ont été utilisées pour calculer des probabilités de présence selon les scénarios dans six régions biogéographiques majeures de la Suisse, comportant le Jura, le Plateau, les Alpes du Nord, du Sud, centrales orientales et centrales occidentales. Les résultats principaux ont montré que les espèces des prairies sèches pourraient profiter d'une diminution de la production agricole, mais qu'elles pourraient aussi disparaître à cause de l'embroussaillement des terres ouvertes dû à la libéralisation des marchés agricoles. La probabilité de présence des espèces de marais a décrû à cause d'une perte générale des habitats favorables. De plus, les analyses ont confirmé que des causes humaines comme l'urbanisation, l'abandon des terres ouvertes et l'intensification de l'agriculture affectent actuellement ces espèces. Ainsi ces forces devraient être mieux prises en compte lors de planifications paysagères, pour que ces papillons diurnes puissent survivre dans leurs habitats actuels. Dans ce travail de thèse, des données historiques ont été intensivement utilisées pour reconstruire des développements anciens et pour les rendre utiles à des recherches contemporaines. Cependant, la disponibilité des données historiques et les analyses à grande échelle ont souvent limité le pouvoir explicatif des analyses. Des descripteurs pertinents pour caractériser les habitats anciens et des données suffisantes sur la distribution des espèces sont généralement rares, spécialement pour des analyses à des échelles fores. Cette situation peut être améliorée en augmentant l'étendue du site d'étude et la résolution, comme il a été fait dans cette thèse en considérant toute la Suisse avec ses communes. Cependant, les récents projets de surveillance et les techniques de collecte de données sont des sources prometteuses, qui pourraient permettre des analyses plus détaillés sur les réactions à long terme des espèces aux changements de paysage dans le futur. Ce travail a aussi montré la valeur des anciennes données de distribution, par exemple leur potentiel pour aider à localiser des' présences d'espèces encore inconnues. Les résultats peuvent contribuer à des activités de recherche à venir, qui étudieraient les distributions récentes ou futures d'espèces en considérant l'immense richesse des données de distribution historiques.

Transcript profiling suggests that differential metabolic adaptation of mice to a high fat diet is associated with changes in liver to muscle lipid fluxes.

Genetically homogenous C57Bl/6 mice display differential metabolic adaptation when fed a high fat diet for 9 months. Most become obese and diabetic, but a significant fraction remains lean and diabetic or lean and non-diabetic. Here, we performed microarray analysis of "metabolic" transcripts expressed in liver and hindlimb muscles to evaluate: (i) whether expressed transcript patterns could indicate changes in metabolic pathways associated with the different phenotypes, (ii) how these changes differed from the early metabolic adaptation to short term high fat feeding, and (iii) whether gene classifiers could be established that were characteristic of each metabolic phenotype. Our data indicate that obesity/diabetes was associated with preserved hepatic lipogenic gene expression and increased plasma levels of very low density lipoprotein and, in muscle, with an increase in lipoprotein lipase gene expression. This suggests increased muscle fatty acid uptake, which may favor insulin resistance. In contrast, the lean mice showed a strong reduction in the expression of hepatic lipogenic genes, in particular of Scd-1, a gene linked to sensitivity to diet-induced obesity; the lean and non-diabetic mice presented an additional increased expression of eNos in liver. After 1 week of high fat feeding the liver gene expression pattern was distinct from that seen at 9 months in any of the three mouse groups, thus indicating progressive establishment of the different phenotypes. Strikingly, development of the obese phenotype involved re-expression of Scd-1 and other lipogenic genes. Finally, gene classifiers could be established that were characteristic of each metabolic phenotype. Together, these data suggest that epigenetic mechanisms influence gene expression patterns and metabolic fates.

Broad-scale adaptive genetic variation in alpine plants is driven by temperature and precipitation.

Identifying adaptive genetic variation is a challenging task, in particular in non-model species for which genomic information is still limited or absent. Here, we studied distribution patterns of amplified fragment length polymorphisms (AFLPs) in response to environmental variation, in 13 alpine plant species consistently sampled across the entire European Alps. Multiple linear regressions were performed between AFLP allele frequencies per site as dependent variables and two categories of independent variables, namely Moran's eigenvector map MEM variables (to account for spatial and unaccounted environmental variation, and historical demographic processes) and environmental variables. These associations allowed the identification of 153 loci of ecological relevance. Univariate regressions between allele frequency and each environmental factor further showed that loci of ecological relevance were mainly correlated with MEM variables. We found that precipitation and temperature were the best environmental predictors, whereas topographic factors were rarely involved in environmental associations. Climatic factors, subject to rapid variation as a result of the current global warming, are known to strongly influence the fate of alpine plants. Our study shows, for the first time for a large number of species, that the same environmental variables are drivers of plant adaptation at the scale of a whole biome, here the European Alps.

Reconsolidation of the soil surface after tillage discontinuity, with and without cultivation, related to erosion and its prediction with RUSLE

Site-specific regression coefficient values are essential for erosion prediction with empirical models. With the objective to investigate the surface-soilconsolidation factor, Cf, linked to the RUSLE's prior-land-use subfactor, PLU, an erosion experiment using simulated rainfall on a 0.075 m m-1 slope, sandy loam Paleudult soil, was conducted at the Agriculture Experimental Station of the Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul (EEA/UFRGS), in Eldorado do Sul, State of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil. Firstly, a row-cropped area was excluded from cultivation (March 1995), the existing crop residue removed from the field, and the soil kept clean-tilled the rest of the year (to get a degraded soil condition for the intended purpose of this research). The soil was then conventional-tilled for the last time (except for a standard plot which was kept continuously cleantilled for comparison purposes), in January 1996, and the following treatments were established and evaluated for soil reconsolidation and soil erosion until May 1998, on duplicated 3.5 x 11.0 m erosion plots: (a) fresh-tilled soil, continuously in clean-tilled fallow (unit plot); (b) reconsolidating soil without cultivation; and (c) reconsolidating soil with cultivation (a crop sequence of three corn- and two black oats cycles, continuously in no-till, removing the crop residues after each harvest for rainfall application and redistributing them on the site after that). Simulated rainfall was applied with a Swanson's type, rotating-boom rainfall simulator, at 63.5 mm h-1 intensity and 90 min duration, six times during the two-and-half years of experimental period (at the beginning of the study and after each crop harvest, with the soil in the unit plot being retilled before each rainfall test). The soil-surface-consolidation factor, Cf, was calculated by dividing soil loss values from the reconsolidating soil treatments by the average value from the fresh-tilled soil treatment (unit plot). Non-linear regression was used to fit the Cf = e b.t model through the calculated Cf-data, where t is time in days since last tillage. Values for b were -0.0020 for the reconsolidating soil without cultivation and -0.0031 for the one with cultivation, yielding Cf-values equal to 0.16 and 0.06, respectively, after two-and-half years of tillage discontinuation, compared to 1.0 for fresh-tilled soil. These estimated Cf-values correspond, respectively, to soil loss reductions of 84 and 94 %, in relation to soil loss from the fresh-tilled soil, showing that the soil surface reconsolidated intenser with cultivation than without it. Two distinct treatmentinherent soil surface conditions probably influenced the rapid decay-rate of Cf values in this study, but, as a matter of a fact, they were part of the real environmental field conditions. Cf-factor curves presented in this paper are therefore useful for predicting erosion with RUSLE, but their application is restricted to situations where both soil type and particular soil surface condition are similar to the ones investigate in this study.