A költségvetési korlát megkeményítése a posztszocialista országokban = Hardening of the budget constraint in the post-socialist countries

A költségvetési korlát megkeményítése nem egyforma mértékben ment végbe minden posztszocialista gazdaságban. Egyes országokban messzire jutottak ebben a tekintetben, másokban viszont alig változott az indulóállapot. A tanulmány áttekinti a költségvetési korlát puhaságának különböző megnyilvánulásait: az állami támogatásokat, a puha adózást, a nem teljesítő bankkölcsönöket, a vállalatközi tartozások felgyülemlését és a kifizetetlen béreket. A jelenséget sokféle tényező okozza, amelyek többnyire együttesen jelentkeznek. Az állami tulajdon fenntartása kedvez a puha költségvetési szindróma megrögződésének, a privatizálás elősegíti a keményítést, de nem elégséges feltétele a kemény korlát érvényesítésének. Ehhez megfelelő politikai, jogi és gazdasági környezetet kell céltudatosan kialakítani. A posztszocialista átmenet kezdetén sokan azt hitték, hogy a hatékony piacgazdaság létrehozásához elegendő lesz megvalósítani a liberalizáció, privatizáció és stabilizáció "szentháromságát". Mára már kiderült, hogy a költségvetési korlát megkeményítése az említett három feladattal egyenrangúan fontos. Ahol ez nem valósul meg (például Oroszország), ott a privatizáció nem hozza meg a várt eredményt. ___________________ The budget constraint has not hardened to equal degrees in the various post-socialist countries. In some of them, a great deal has been done in this respect, while in others there has been hardly any change from the initial state. This study surveys the typical manifestations of softness of the budget constraint, such as state subsidies, soft taxation, non-performing loans, the accumulation of trade arrears between firms, and the build-up of wage arrears. Softness of the budget constraint is caused by several factors that tend to act in combination. Thus retention of state ownership helps to preserve the soft budget-constraint syndrome, while privatization encourages the budget constraint to harden, although it does not form a sufficient condition for it to happen. Purposeful development of the requisite political, legal and economic conditions is also required. It was widely maintained at the outset of the post-socialist transition that the 'Holy Trinity' of liberalization, privatization and stabilization would suffice to produce an efficient market economy. Since then, it has become clear that hardening the budget constraint needs to be given equal priority with these. Otherwise, the effects of privatization will fall short of expectations, as they have in Russia, for example.

A puha költségvetési korlát szindrómája a kórházi szektorban = The soft budget constraint syndrome in the hospital sector

A kutatások eddig főképpen azt vizsgálták, hogyan jelenik meg a puha költségvetési korlát szindrómája a vállalati szférában és a hitelrendszerben. A jelen cikk a kórházi szektorra összpontosítja a figyelmet. Leírja az események öt főszereplőjének, a betegnek, az orvosnak, a kórházigazgatónak, a politikusnak és a kórház tulajdonosának motivációit és magatartásuk ellentmondásos jellegét. A motivációk magyarázzák, miért olyan erőteljes a túlköltési hajlam és a költségvetési korlát felpuhulásának tendenciája. A döntési és finanszírozási folyamatok minden szintjén felfelé hárítják a túlköltés és eladósodás terheit. A cikk kitér a különböző tulajdonformák (állami, nonprofit és forprofit nem állami tulajdonformák) és a puha költségvetési korlát szindrómájának kapcsolatára. Végül normatív szempontból vizsgálja a jelenséget: melyek a költségvetési korlát megkeményítésének kedvező és kedvezőtlen következményei, és hogyan tükröződnek a normatív dilemmák az események résztvevőinek tudatában. ___________ Researches so far have examined mainly how the soft budget constraint syndrome appears in the corporate sphere and the credit system. This article concentrates on the hospital sector. It describes the motivations and the contradictory behaviour of the five main types of participant in the events: patients, doctors, hospital managers, politicians, and hospital owners. The motivations explain why the propensity to overspend and the tendency to soften the budget constraint are so strong. The burdens of overspending and indebtedness are pushed upwards at every level of the decision-making and funding processes. The article considers the connection between the soft budget constraint syn-drome and the various forms of ownership (state ownership and the non-profit and for-profit forms of non-state ownership). Finally, the phenomenon is examined from the normative point of view: what are the favourable and unfavourable consequences of hardening the budget constraint and how these are reflected in the consciousness of the participants in the normative dilemmas and events.

The Soft Budget Constraint. An introductory study to volume IV of the Life’s Work series

The author’s ideas on the soft budget constraint (SBC) were first expressed in 1976. Much progress has been made in understanding the problem over the ensuing four decades. The study takes issue with those who confine the concept to the process of bailing out loss-making socialist firms. It shows how the syndrome can appear in various organizations and forms in many spheres of the economy and points to the various means available for financial rescue. Single bailouts do not as such generate the SBC syndrome. It develops where the SBC becomes built into expectations. Special heed is paid to features generated by the syndrome in rescuer and rescuee organizations. The study reports on the spread of the syndrome in various periods of the socialist and the capitalist system, in various sectors. The author expresses his views on normative questions and on therapies against the harmful effects. He deals first with actual practice, then places the theory of the SBC in the sphere of ideas and models, showing how it relates to other theoretical trends, including institutional and behavioural economics and theories of moral hazard and inconsistency in time. He shows how far the intellectual apparatus of the SBC has spread in theoretical literature and where it has reached in the process of “canonization” by the economics profession. Finally, he reviews the main research tasks ahead.

Introduction of soft budget constraint as an analyzing tool into public management. The case of the Hungarian public administration reform

Public management reforms are usually underpinned by arguments that they will make the public administration system more effective and efficient. In practice, however, it is very hard to determine whether a given reform will improve the efficiency and effectiveness of the public administration system in the long run. Here, I shall examine how the concept of the soft budget constraint (SBC) introduced by János Kornai (Kornai 1979, 1986; Kornai, Maskin & Roland 2003) can be applied to this problem. In the following, I shall describe the Hungarian public administration reforms implemented by the Orbán government from 2010 onward and analyze its reforms, focusing on which measures harden and which ones soften the budget constraint of the actors of the Hungarian public administration system. In the literature of economics, there is some evidence-based knowledge on how to harden/soften the budget constraint, which improves/reduces the effectiveness and hence the efficiency of the given system. By using the concept of SBC, I also hope to shed some light on the rationale behind the Hungarian government’s introduction of such a contradictory reform package. Previously, the concept of SBC was utilized narrowly in public management studies, mostly in the field of fiscal federalism. My goal is to apply the concept to a broader area of public management studies. My conclusion is that the concept of SBC can significantly contribute to public management studies by deepening our knowledge on the reasons behind the success and failure of public administration reforms.

The development of an automated nano sampling handling system for nanometre protein crystallography experiments

As the world's synchrotrons and X-FELs endeavour to meet the need to analyse ever-smaller protein crystals, there grows a requirement for a new technique to present nano-dimensional samples to the beam for X-ray diffraction experiments.The work presented here details developmental work to reconfigure the nano tweezer technology developed by Optofluidics (PA, USA) for the trapping of nano dimensional protein crystals for X-ray crystallography experiments. The system in its standard configuration is used to trap nano particles for optical microscopy. It uses silicon nitride laser waveguides that bridge a micro fluidic channel. These waveguides contain 180 nm apertures of enabling the system to use biologically compatible 1.6 micron wavelength laser light to trap nano dimensional biological samples. Using conventional laser tweezers, the wavelength required to trap such nano dimensional samples would destroy them. The system in its optical configuration has trapped protein molecules as small as 10 nanometres.

The development of an automated nano sampling handling system for nanometne protein crystallography experiments

As the world's synchrotrons and X-FELs endeavour to meet the need to analyse ever-smaller protein crystals, there grows a requirement for a new technique to present nano-dimensional samples to the beam for X-ray diffraction experiments.The work presented here details developmental work to reconfigure the nano tweezer technology developed by Optofluidics (PA, USA) for the trapping of nano dimensional protein crystals for X-ray crystallography experiments. The system in its standard configuration is used to trap nano particles for optical microscopy. It uses silicon nitride laser waveguides that bridge a micro fluidic channel. These waveguides contain 180 nm apertures of enabling the system to use biologically compatible 1.6 micron wavelength laser light to trap nano dimensional biological samples. Using conventional laser tweezers, the wavelength required to trap such nano dimensional samples would destroy them. The system in its optical configuration has trapped protein molecules as small as 10 nanometres.

A constraint and position identification (CPI) approach for the synthesis of decoupled spatial translational compliant parallel manipulators

This paper introduces a screw theory based method termed constraint and position identification (CPI) approach to synthesize decoupled spatial translational compliant parallel manipulators (XYZ CPMs) with consideration of actuation isolation. The proposed approach is based on a systematic arrangement of rigid stages and compliant modules in a three-legged XYZ CPM system using the constraint spaces and the position spaces of the compliant modules. The constraint spaces and the position spaces are firstly derived based on the screw theory instead of using the rigid-body mechanism design experience. Additionally, the constraint spaces are classified into different constraint combinations, with typical position spaces depicted via geometric entities. Furthermore, the systematic synthesis process based on the constraint combinations and the geometric entities is demonstrated via several examples. Finally, several novel decoupled XYZ CPMs with monolithic configurations are created and verified by finite elements analysis. The present CPI approach enables experts and beginners to synthesize a variety of decoupled XYZ CPMs with consideration of actuation isolation by selecting an appropriate constraint and an optimal position for each of the compliant modules according to a specific application.

Constraint-force-based approach of modelling compliant mechanisms: principle and application

Numerous works have been conducted on modelling basic compliant elements such as wire beams, and closed-form analytical models of most basic compliant elements have been well developed. However, the modelling of complex compliant mechanisms is still a challenging work. This paper proposes a constraint-force-based (CFB) modelling approach to model compliant mechanisms with a particular emphasis on modelling complex compliant mechanisms. The proposed CFB modelling approach can be regarded as an improved free-body- diagram (FBD) based modelling approach, and can be extended to a development of the screw-theory-based design approach. A compliant mechanism can be decomposed into rigid stages and compliant modules. A compliant module can offer elastic forces due to its deformation. Such elastic forces are regarded as variable constraint forces in the CFB modelling approach. Additionally, the CFB modelling approach defines external forces applied on a compliant mechanism as constant constraint forces. If a compliant mechanism is at static equilibrium, all the rigid stages are also at static equilibrium under the influence of the variable and constant constraint forces. Therefore, the constraint force equilibrium equations for all the rigid stages can be obtained, and the analytical model of the compliant mechanism can be derived based on the constraint force equilibrium equations. The CFB modelling approach can model a compliant mechanism linearly and nonlinearly, can obtain displacements of any points of the rigid stages, and allows external forces to be exerted on any positions of the rigid stages. Compared with the FBD based modelling approach, the CFB modelling approach does not need to identify the possible deformed configuration of a complex compliant mechanism to obtain the geometric compatibility conditions and the force equilibrium equations. Additionally, the mathematical expressions in the CFB approach have an easily understood physical meaning. Using the CFB modelling approach, the variable constraint forces of three compliant modules, a wire beam, a four-beam compliant module and an eight-beam compliant module, have been derived in this paper. Based on these variable constraint forces, the linear and non-linear models of a decoupled XYZ compliant parallel mechanism are derived, and verified by FEA simulations and experimental tests.

Implementing a structural continuity constraint and a halting method for the topology optimization of energy absorbers

This study investigates topology optimization of energy absorbing structures in which material damage is accounted for in the optimization process. The optimization objective is to design the lightest structures that are able to absorb the required mechanical energy. A structural continuity constraint check is introduced that is able to detect when no feasible load path remains in the finite element model, usually as a result of large scale fracture. This assures that designs do not fail when loaded under the conditions prescribed in the design requirements. This continuity constraint check is automated and requires no intervention from the analyst once the optimization process is initiated. Consequently, the optimization algorithm proceeds towards evolving an energy absorbing structure with the minimum structural mass that is not susceptible to global structural failure. A method is also introduced to determine when the optimization process should halt. The method identifies when the optimization method has plateaued and is no longer likely to provide improved designs if continued for further iterations. This provides the designer with a rational method to determine the necessary time to run the optimization and avoid wasting computational resources on unnecessary iterations. A case study is presented to demonstrate the use of this method.

Random Forest Based Approach for Concept-Drift Handling

Algorithms for concept drift handling are important for various applications including video analysis and smart grids. In this paper we present decision tree ensemble classication method based on the Random Forest algorithm for concept drift. The weighted majority voting ensemble aggregation rule is employed based on the ideas of Accuracy Weighted Ensemble (AWE) method. Base learner weight in our case is computed for each sample evaluation using base learners accuracy and intrinsic proximity measure of Random Forest. Our algorithm exploits both temporal weighting of samples and ensemble pruning as a forgetting strategy. We present results of empirical comparison of our method with îriginal random forest with incorporated replace-the-looser forgetting andother state-of-the-art concept-drift classiers like AWE2.

An analysis of wind curtailment and constraint at a nodal level

Many countries have set challenging wind power targets to achieve by 2020. This paper implements a realistic analysis of curtailment and constraint of wind energy at a nodal level using a unit commitment and economic dispatch model of the Irish Single Electricity Market in 2020. The key findings show that significant reduction in curtailment can be achieved when the system non-synchronous penetration limit increases from 65% to 75%. For the period analyzed, this results in a decreased total generation cost and a reduction in the dispatch-down of wind. However, some nodes experience significant dispatch-down of wind, which can be in the order of 40%. This work illustrates the importance of implementing analysis at a nodal level for the purpose of power system planning.

Comparing sensor-based and camera-based approaches to recognizing the occupancy status of the load handling device of forklift trucks

Real-time data of key performance enablers in logistics warehouses are of growing importance as they permit decision-makers to instantaneously react to alerts, deviations and damages. Several technologies appear as adequate data sources to collect the information required in order to achieve the goal. In the present re-search paper, the load status of the fork of a forklift is to be recognized with the help of a sensor-based and a camera-based solution approach. The comparison of initial experimentation results yields a statement about which direction to pursue for promising further research.

Effects of handling regime and sex on changes in cortisol, thyroid hormones and body mass in fasting grey seal pups

Survival of seal pups may be affected by their ability to respond appropriately to stress. Chronic stress can adversely affect secretion of cortisol and thyroid hormones, which contribute to the control of fuel utilisation. Repeated handling could disrupt the endocrine response to stress and/or negatively impact upon mass changes during fasting. Here we investigated the effects of handling regime on cortisol and thyroid hormone levels, and body mass changes, in fasting male and female grey seal pups (Halichoerus grypus). Females had higher thyroid hormone levels than males throughout fasting and showed a reduction in cortisol midway through the fast that was not seen in males. This may reflect sex-specific fuel allocation or development. Neither handling frequency nor cumulative contact time affected plasma cortisol or thyroid hormone levels, the rate of increase in cortisol over the first five minutes of physical contact or the pattern of mass loss during fasting in either sex. The endocrine response to stress and the control of energy balance in grey seal pups appear to be robust to repeated, short periods of handling. Our results suggest that routine handling should have no additional impact on these animals than general disturbance caused by researchers moving around the colony.