Poly-bagging predictors for classification modelling for credit scoring

Credit scoring modelling comprises one of the leading formal tools for supporting the granting of credit. Its core objective consists of the generation of a score by means of which potential clients can be listed in the order of the probability of default. A critical factor is whether a credit scoring model is accurate enough in order to provide correct classification of the client as a good or bad payer. In this context the concept of bootstraping aggregating (bagging) arises. The basic idea is to generate multiple classifiers by obtaining the predicted values from the fitted models to several replicated datasets and then combining them into a single predictive classification in order to improve the classification accuracy. In this paper we propose a new bagging-type variant procedure, which we call poly-bagging, consisting of combining predictors over a succession of resamplings. The study is derived by credit scoring modelling. The proposed poly-bagging procedure was applied to some different artificial datasets and to a real granting of credit dataset up to three successions of resamplings. We observed better classification accuracy for the two-bagged and the three-bagged models for all considered setups. These results lead to a strong indication that the poly-bagging approach may promote improvement on the modelling performance measures, while keeping a flexible and straightforward bagging-type structure easy to implement. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Influence diagnostics in nonlinear mixed-effects elliptical models

In this work we propose and analyze nonlinear elliptical models for longitudinal data, which represent an alternative to gaussian models in the cases of heavy tails, for instance. The elliptical distributions may help to control the influence of the observations in the parameter estimates by naturally attributing different weights for each case. We consider random effects to introduce the within-group correlation and work with the marginal model without requiring numerical integration. An iterative algorithm to obtain maximum likelihood estimates for the parameters is presented, as well as diagnostic results based on residual distances and local influence [Cook, D., 1986. Assessment of local influence. journal of the Royal Statistical Society - Series B 48 (2), 133-169; Cook D., 1987. Influence assessment. journal of Applied Statistics 14 (2),117-131; Escobar, L.A., Meeker, W.Q., 1992, Assessing influence in regression analysis with censored data, Biometrics 48, 507-528]. As numerical illustration, we apply the obtained results to a kinetics longitudinal data set presented in [Vonesh, E.F., Carter, R.L., 1992. Mixed-effects nonlinear regression for unbalanced repeated measures. Biometrics 48, 1-17], which was analyzed under the assumption of normality. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Heuristics for the one-dimensional cutting stock problem with limited multiple stock lengths

This paper deals with the classical one-dimensional integer cutting stock problem, which consists of cutting a set of available stock lengths in order to produce smaller ordered items. This process is carried out in order to optimize a given objective function (e.g., minimizing waste). Our study deals with a case in which there are several stock lengths available in limited quantities. Moreover, we have focused on problems of low demand. Some heuristic methods are proposed in order to obtain an integer solution and compared with others. The heuristic methods are empirically analyzed by solving a set of randomly generated instances and a set of instances from the literature. Concerning the latter. most of the optimal solutions of these instances are known, therefore it was possible to compare the solutions. The proposed methods presented very small objective function value gaps. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Power series generalized nonlinear models

We introduce in this paper a new class of discrete generalized nonlinear models to extend the binomial, Poisson and negative binomial models to cope with count data. This class of models includes some important models such as log-nonlinear models, logit, probit and negative binomial nonlinear models, generalized Poisson and generalized negative binomial regression models, among other models, which enables the fitting of a wide range of models to count data. We derive an iterative process for fitting these models by maximum likelihood and discuss inference on the parameters. The usefulness of the new class of models is illustrated with an application to a real data set. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Statistical analysis of proficiency testing results under elliptical distributions

The use of inter-laboratory test comparisons to determine the performance of individual laboratories for specific tests (or for calibration) [ISO/IEC Guide 43-1, 1997. Proficiency testing by interlaboratory comparisons - Part 1: Development and operation of proficiency testing schemes] is called Proficiency Testing (PT). In this paper we propose the use of the generalized likelihood ratio test to compare the performance of the group of laboratories for specific tests relative to the assigned value and illustrate the procedure considering an actual data from the PT program in the area of volume. The proposed test extends the test criteria in use allowing to test for the consistency of the group of laboratories. Moreover, the class of elliptical distributions are considered for the obtained measurements. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of a bounded high order upwind scheme for 3D incompressible free surface flow computations

fit the context of normalized variable formulation (NVF) of Leonard and total variation diminishing (TVD) constraints of Harten. this paper presents an extension of it previous work by the authors for solving unsteady incompressible flow problems. The main contributions of the paper are threefold. First, it presents the results of the development and implementation of a bounded high order upwind adaptative QUICKEST scheme in the 3D robust code (Freeflow), for the numerical solution of the full incompressible Navier-Stokes equations. Second, it reports numerical simulation results for 1D hock tube problem, 2D impinging jet and 2D/3D broken clam flows. Furthermore, these results are compared with existing analytical and experimental data. And third, it presents the application of the numerical method for solving 3D free surface flow problems. (C) 2007 IMACS. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved,

Front tracking with moving-least-squares surfaces

The representation of interfaces by means of the algebraic moving-least-squares (AMLS) technique is addressed. This technique, in which the interface is represented by an unconnected set of points, is interesting for evolving fluid interfaces since there is]to surface connectivity. The position of the surface points can thus be updated without concerns about the quality of any surface triangulation. We introduce a novel AMLS technique especially designed for evolving-interfaces applications that we denote RAMLS (for Robust AMLS). The main advantages with respect to previous AMLS techniques are: increased robustness, computational efficiency, and being free of user-tuned parameters. Further, we propose a new front-tracking method based on the Lagrangian advection of the unconnected point set that defines the RAMLS surface. We assume that a background Eulerian grid is defined with some grid spacing h. The advection of the point set makes the surface evolve in time. The point cloud can be regenerated at any time (in particular, we regenerate it each time step) by intersecting the gridlines with the evolved surface, which guarantees that the density of points on the surface is always well balanced. The intersection algorithm is essentially a ray-tracing algorithm, well-studied in computer graphics, in which a line (ray) is traced so as to detect all intersections with a surface. Also, the tracing of each gridline is independent and can thus be performed in parallel. Several tests are reported assessing first the accuracy of the proposed RAMLS technique, and then of the front-tracking method based on it. Comparison with previous Eulerian, Lagrangian and hybrid techniques encourage further development of the proposed method for fluid mechanics applications. (C) 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

An implicit technique for solving 3D low Reynolds number moving free surface flows

This paper describes the development of an implicit finite difference method for solving transient three-dimensional incompressible free surface flows. To reduce the CPU time of explicit low-Reynolds number calculations, we have combined a projection method with an implicit technique for treating the pressure on the free surface. The projection method is employed to uncouple the velocity and the pressure fields, allowing each variable to be solved separately. We employ the normal stress condition on the free surface to derive an implicit technique for calculating the pressure at the free surface. Numerical results demonstrate that this modification is essential for the construction of methods that are more stable than those provided by discretizing the free surface explicitly. In addition, we show that the proposed method can be applied to viscoelastic fluids. Numerical results include the simulation of jet buckling and extrudate swell for Reynolds numbers in the range [0.01, 0.5]. (C) 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The complementary exponential geometric distribution: Model, properties, and a comparison with its counterpart

In this paper, we proposed a new two-parameter lifetime distribution with increasing failure rate, the complementary exponential geometric distribution, which is complementary to the exponential geometric model proposed by Adamidis and Loukas (1998). The new distribution arises on a latent complementary risks scenario, in which the lifetime associated with a particular risk is not observable; rather, we observe only the maximum lifetime value among all risks. The properties of the proposed distribution are discussed, including a formal proof of its probability density function and explicit algebraic formulas for its reliability and failure rate functions, moments, including the mean and variance, variation coefficient, and modal value. The parameter estimation is based on the usual maximum likelihood approach. We report the results of a misspecification simulation study performed in order to assess the extent of misspecification errors when testing the exponential geometric distribution against our complementary one in the presence of different sample size and censoring percentage. The methodology is illustrated on four real datasets; we also make a comparison between both modeling approaches. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Topological triangle characterization with application to object detection from images

A novel mathematical framework inspired on Morse Theory for topological triangle characterization in 2D meshes is introduced that is useful for applications involving the creation of mesh models of objects whose geometry is not known a priori. The framework guarantees a precise control of topological changes introduced as a result of triangle insertion/removal operations and enables the definition of intuitive high-level operators for managing the mesh while keeping its topological integrity. An application is described in the implementation of an innovative approach for the detection of 2D objects from images that integrates the topological control enabled by geometric modeling with traditional image processing techniques. (C) 2008 Published by Elsevier B.V.

Log-Burr XII regression models with censored data

In survival analysis applications, the failure rate function may frequently present a unimodal shape. In such case, the log-normal or log-logistic distributions are used. In this paper, we shall be concerned only with parametric forms, so a location-scale regression model based on the Burr XII distribution is proposed for modeling data with a unimodal failure rate function as an alternative to the log-logistic regression model. Assuming censored data, we consider a classic analysis, a Bayesian analysis and a jackknife estimator for the parameters of the proposed model. For different parameter settings, sample sizes and censoring percentages, various simulation studies are performed and compared to the performance of the log-logistic and log-Burr XII regression models. Besides, we use sensitivity analysis to detect influential or outlying observations, and residual analysis is used to check the assumptions in the model. Finally, we analyze a real data set under log-Buff XII regression models. (C) 2008 Published by Elsevier B.V.

Lot sizing and furnace scheduling in small foundries

A lot sizing and scheduling problem prevalent in small market-driven foundries is studied. There are two related decision levels: (I the furnace scheduling of metal alloy production, and (2) moulding machine planning which specifies the type and size of production lots. A mixed integer programming (MIP) formulation of the problem is proposed, but is impractical to solve in reasonable computing time for non-small instances. As a result, a faster relax-and-fix (RF) approach is developed that can also be used on a rolling horizon basis where only immediate-term schedules are implemented. As well as a MIP method to solve the basic RF approach, three variants of a local search method are also developed and tested using instances based on the literature. Finally, foundry-based tests with a real-order book resulted in a very substantial reduction of delivery delays and finished inventory, better use of capacity, and much faster schedule definition compared to the foundry`s own practice. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Scalable model-based configuration management of security services in complex enterprise networks

Security administrators face the challenge of designing, deploying and maintaining a variety of configuration files related to security systems, especially in large-scale networks. These files have heterogeneous syntaxes and follow differing semantic concepts. Nevertheless, they are interdependent due to security services having to cooperate and their configuration to be consistent with each other, so that global security policies are completely and correctly enforced. To tackle this problem, our approach supports a comfortable definition of an abstract high-level security policy and provides an automated derivation of the desired configuration files. It is an extension of policy-based management and policy hierarchies, combining model-based management (MBM) with system modularization. MBM employs an object-oriented model of the managed system to obtain the details needed for automated policy refinement. The modularization into abstract subsystems (ASs) segment the system-and the model-into units which more closely encapsulate related system components and provide focused abstract views. As a result, scalability is achieved and even comprehensive IT systems can be modelled in a unified manner. The associated tool MoBaSeC (Model-Based-Service-Configuration) supports interactive graphical modelling, automated model analysis and policy refinement with the derivation of configuration files. We describe the MBM and AS approaches, outline the tool functions and exemplify their applications and results obtained. Copyright (C) 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Design of associative memories using cellular neural networks

Cellular neural networks (CNNs) have locally connected neurons. This characteristic makes CNNs adequate for hardware implementation and, consequently, for their employment on a variety of applications as real-time image processing and construction of efficient associative memories. Adjustments of CNN parameters is a complex problem involved in the configuration of CNN for associative memories. This paper reviews methods of associative memory design based on CNNs, and provides comparative performance analysis of these approaches.

Automatically linking live experiences captured with a ubiquitous infrastructure

Ubiquitous computing aims at providing services to users in everyday environments such as the home. One research theme in this area is that of building capture and access applications which support information to be recorded ( captured) during a live experience toward automatically producing documents for review (accessed). The recording demands instrumented environments with devices such as microphones, cameras, sensors and electronic whiteboards. Since each experience is usually related to many others ( e. g. several meetings of a project), there is a demand for mechanisms supporting the automatic linking among documents relative to different experiences. In this paper we present original results relative to the integration of our previous efforts in the Infrastructure for Capturing, Accessing, Linking, Storing and Presenting information (CALiSP). Ubiquitous computing aims at providing services to users in everyday environments such as the home. One research theme in this area is that of building capture and access applications which support information to be recorded (captured) during a live experience toward automatically producing documents for review (accessed). The recording demands instrumented environments with devices such as microphones, cameras, sensors and electronic whiteboards. Since each experience is usually related to many others (e.g. several meetings of a project), there is a demand for mechanisms supporting the automatic linking among documents relative to different experiences. In this paper we present original results relative to the integration of our previous efforts in the Infrastructure for Capturing, Accessing, Linking, Storing and Presenting information (CALiSP).