Incubation period of Hemileia vastatrix in coffee plants in Brazil simulated under climate change

Risk analysis of climate change on plant diseases has great importance for agriculture since it allows the evaluation of management strategies to minimize future damages. This work aimed to simulate future scenarios of coffee rust (Hemileia vastatrix) epidemics by elaborating geographic distribution maps using a model that estimates the pathogen incubation period and the output from three General Circulation Models (CSIRO-Mk3.0, INM-CM3.0, and MIROC3.2.medres). The climatological normal from 1961-1990 was compared with that of the decades 2020s, 2050s and 2080s using scenarios A2 and B1 from the IPCC. Maps were prepared with a spatial resolution of 0.5 × 0.5 degrees of latitude and longitude for ten producing states in Brazil. The climate variables used were maximum and minimum monthly temperatures. The maps obtained in scenario A2 showed a tendency towards a reduction in the incubation period when future scenarios are compared with the climatological normal from 1961-1990. A reduction in the period was also observed in scenario B1, although smaller than that in scenario A2.

An analysis of the risk of cocoa moniliasis occurrence in Brazil as the result of climate change

The aim of this study was to evaluate the potential risk of moniliasis occurrence and the impacts of climate change on this disease in the coming decades, should this pathogen be introduced in Brazil. To this end, climate favorability maps were devised for the occurrence of moniliasis, both for the present and future time. The future scenarios (A2 and B2) focused on the decades of 2020, 2050 and 2080. These scenarios were obtained from six global climate models (GCMs) made available by the third assessment report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Currently, there are large areas with favorable climate conditions for moniliasis in Brazil, especially in regions at high risk of introduction of that pathogen. Considering the global warming scenarios provided by the IPCC, the potential risk of moniliasis occurrence in Brazil will be reduced. This decrease is predicted for both future scenarios, but will occur more sharply in scenario A2. However, there will still be areas with favorable climate conditions for the development of the disease, particularly in Brazil's main producing regions. Moreover, pathogen and host alike may undergo alterations due to climate change, which will affect the extent of their impacts on this pathosystem.

Potential impact of the global climate changes on the spatial distribution of areas of risk for the occurrence of eucalyptus rust in Brazil

Rust, caused by Puccinia psidii, is one of the most important diseases affecting eucalyptus in Brazil. This pathogen causes disease in mini-clonal garden and in young plants in the field, especially in leaves and juvenile shoots. Favorable climate conditions for infection by this pathogen in eucalyptus include temperature between 18 and 25 ºC, together with at least 6-hour leaf wetness periods, for 5 to 7 consecutive days. Considering the interaction between the environment and the pathogen, this study aimed to evaluate the potential impact of global climate changes on the spatial distribution of areas of risk for the occurrence of eucalyptus rust in Brazil. Thus, monthly maps of the areas of risk for the occurrence of this disease were elaborated, considering the current climate conditions, based on a historic series between 1961 and 1990, and the future scenarios A2 and B2, predicted by IPCC. The climate conditions were classified into three categories, according to the potential risk for the disease occurrence, considering temperature (T) and air relative humidity (RH): i) high risk (18 < T < 25 ºC and RH > 90%); ii) medium risk (18 < T < 25 ºC and RH < 90%; T< 18 or T > 25 ºC and RH > 90%); and iii) low risk (T < 18 or T > 25 ºC and RH < 90%). Data about the future climate scenarios were supplied by GCM Change Fields. In this study, the simulation model Hadley Centers for Climate Prediction and Research (HadCm3) was adopted, using the software Idrisi 32. The obtained results led to the conclusion that there will be a reduction in the area favorable to eucalyptus rust occurrence, and such a reduction will be gradual for the decades of 2020, 2050 and 2080 but more marked in scenario A2 than in B2. However, it is important to point out that extensive areas will still be favorable to the disease development, especially in the coldest months of the year, i.e., June and July. Therefore, the zoning of areas and periods of higher occurrence risk, considering the global climate changes, becomes important knowledge for the elaboration of predicting models and an alert for the integrated management of this disease.

Luonnon kasvihuonekaasulähteiden ja -nielujen laskenta maakunnallisella tasolla

Kiihtyvän kasvihuoneilmiön aiheuttama maailmanlaajuinen ilmastonmuutos on yksi aikamme suurimmista haasteista. Kasvihuoneilmiön voimistuminen on ihmistoiminnan seurausta, mutta myös luonnon omat prosessit toimivat kasvihuonekaasujen lähteinä ja nieluina. Tässä työssä on selvitetty luonnon kasvihuonekaasulähteiden ja –nielujen määrää ja merkitystä maakunnallisella tasolla. Lisäksi työssä on esitetty maakunnallisia toimenpide-ehdotuksia kasvihuonekaasunielujen ylläpitämiseksi ja lisäämiseksi. Esimerkkinä työssä on käytetty Keski-Suomen maakuntaa ja laskenta on kohdistettu vuoteen 2008. Keski-Suomessa luonnon prosessit toimivat vuonna 2008 nettonieluna, jonka suuruus oli 1 813 701 tonnia hiilidioksidiekvivalenttia. Eniten kasvihuonekaasuja sitoi puusto 3 019 360 hiilidioksidiekvivalenttitonnin nielulla. Laskennassa huomioitiin hiilidioksidi, metaani ja dityppioksidi. Laskenta suoritettiin soveltuvilta osin kansallisen kasvihuonekaasuraportoinnin periaatteiden mukaisesti sekä tutkimuskirjallisuuteen perustuvien päästö- ja nielukertoimien avulla. Tämä työ osoittaa luonnon nielujen olevan tärkeässä roolissa ilmastonmuutoksen hillitsemisessä. Nielujen säilyttämiseen ja lisäämiseen tähtäävillä toimenpiteillä ilmakehän kasvihuonekaasupitoisuuksiin voidaan vaikuttaa kustannustehokkaasti sekä maailmanlaajuisella että alueellisella tasolla.

Wind turbine operation in cold climate

The goal of the master‘s thesis is to determine and estimate ice accretion influence on the wind turbine blade performance. The thesis describes the technique of ice accretion calculation on the wind turbine blade and determination characteristics of the turbine with ice accreted. The methodology of the classic Blade Element Moment Theory was used. Iced blade experimental data was investigated in order to calculate blade with ice characteristics. The obtained results shows that iced blade power coefficient is lower than clean blade one. The heating system implementation shows that in the particular site in the Lapland region it is efficient.

The analysis and mitigation of risks in FMCG supply chain: the case of British American Tobacco Eastern Europe

This work investigates the Bullwhip Effect, which is one of the most important phenomena in contemporary supply chain management. The author uses most recent theoretical apparatus to analyze operational activities of a leading FMCG company British American Tobacco Eastern Europe. This paper investigates and describes the process in BAT supply chain management and considers the impact of the Bullwhip Effect together with the potential risks threatening company's operations. Emergence of the Bullwhip Effect leads to supply chain inefficiency. This paper contains methodological supply chain risk mitigation recommendations, description of a real case study and an analytical study of internal and external supply chain processes

Effects of global climate changes on geographical distribution patterns of economically important plant species in cerrado

Different climate models, modeling methods and carbon emission scenarios were used in this paper to evaluate the effects of future climate changes on geographical distribution of species of economic and cultural importance across the Cerrado biome. As the results of several studies have shown, there are still many uncertainties associated with these projections, although bioclimatic models are still widely used and effective method to evaluate the consequences for biodiversity of these climate changes. In this article, it was found that 90% of these uncertainties are related to methods of modeling, although, regardless of the uncertainties, the results revealed that the studied species will reduce about 78% of their geographic distribution in Cerrado. For an effective work on the conservation of these species, many studies still need to be carried out, although it is already possible to observe that climate change will have a strong influence on the pattern of distribution of these species.

RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN CLIMATE VARIABLES, TRUNK GROWTH RATE AND WOOD DENSITY OF Eucalyptus grandis W. Mill ex Maiden TREES

ABSTRACT Climatic conditions stimulates the cambial activity of plants, and cause significant changes in trunk diameter growth and wood characteristics. The objective of this study was to evaluate the influence of climate variables in the diameter growth rate of the stem and the wood density of Eucalyptus grandis trees in different classes of the basal area. A total of 25 Eucalyptus trees at 22 months of age were selected according to the basal area distribution. Dendrometer bands were installed at the height of 1.30 meters (DBH) to monitor the diameter growth every 14 days, for 26 months. After measuring growth, the trees were felled and wood discs were removed at the DBH level to determine the radial density profile through x-ray microdensitometry and then re-scale the average values every 14 days. Climatic variables for the monitoring period were obtained and grouped every 14 days. The effect of the climate variables was determined by maximum and minimum growth periods in assessing trunk growth. These growth periods were related with precipitation, average temperature and relative air humidity. The re-scaled wood density values, calculated using the radial growth of the tree trunks measured accurately with steel dendrometers, enabled the determination of the relationship of small changes in wood density and the effect of the climatic variations and growth rate of eucalyptus tree trunks. A high sensitivity of the wood density to variation in precipitation levels was found.

Climate variations in greenhouse cultivated with gerbera and relationship with external conditions

Black meshes used in greenhouses provide shade to plants, affecting photosynthesis and presenting certain properties that change the microclimatic conditions in these environments. The objective of this study was to evaluate the variation in climate elements in greenhouse cultivated with gerbera (Gerbera jamesonii, Vr. Rambo) in relation to external conditions and the reference evapotranspiration (ETo) at Teresina, State of Piauí, Brazil. The measurements were obtained from July to October 2007 by an automatic data acquisition system installed inside and outside the greenhouse. The global solar radiation, evapotranspiration, precipitation, temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed were estimated. The results showed that major effect of the shading occurred on the mean air temperature during the 120 days, making it higher than the external environment. Inside the greenhouse, mean values of relative air humidity, reference evapotranspiração, global solar radiation and wind speed were lower compared to those outside the greenhouse.

Climate risk in maize crop in the northeastern of Brazil based on climate change scenarios

This study evaluates the impacts of climate change on the agricultural zoning of climatic risk in maize crop cultivated in the Northeastern of Brazil, based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports. The water balance model, combined with geospatial technologies, was used to identify areas of the study region where the crops could suffer yield restrictions due to climate change. The data used in the study were the time series of rainfall with at least 30 years of daily data, crop coefficients, potential evapotranspiration and duration of the crop cycle. The scenarios of the increasing of air temperature used in the simulations were of 1.5ºC, 3ºC and 5ºC. The sowing date of maize crop from January to March appears to be less affected by warming scenarios than the sowing in November and December or April and May.

Climate trends in the municipality of Pelotas, state of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil

ABSTRACTChanges in the frequency of occurrence of extreme weather events have been pointed out as a likely impact of global warming. In this context, this study aimed to detect climate change in series of extreme minimum and maximum air temperature of Pelotas, State of Rio Grande do Sul, (1896 - 2011) and its influence on the probability of occurrence of these variables. We used the general extreme value distribution (GEV) in its stationary and non-stationary forms. In the latter case, GEV parameters are variable over time. On the basis of goodness-of-fit tests and of the maximum likelihood method, the GEV model in which the location parameter increases over time presents the best fit of the daily minimum air temperature series. Such result describes a significant increase in the mean values of this variable, which indicates a potential reduction in the frequency of frosts. The daily maximum air temperature series is also described by a non-stationary model, whose location parameter decreases over time, and the scale parameter related to sample variance rises between the beginning and end of the series. This result indicates a drop in the mean of daily maximum air temperature values and increased dispersion of the sample data.

The Evolution of Securities Lending and Risk Mitigation: A Finnish Market Case Study

Although securities lending is an important function of the financial markets, it has not received that much academic attention. This study examines the evolution of European securities lending and risk management with an emphasis on the development of collateral management, the function responsible for reducing credit risk. The effects of the recent financial instabilities are also considered. The evolution of the Finnish securities lending market is examined in more detail through a case-study. This study can be classified as a constructive qualitative case study. The initial practical knowledge comes from the author's own experience and additional insight and theoretical background is acquired through a literature review. The case study is based on research, semi-structured interviews and a brief analysis of numerical data. The main observation of this study was that securities lending is now recognized as more of an investment management discipline than an operational support function. The recent financial instabilities have resulted in an increased focus on risk and transparency. In securities lending this is directly reflected in collateral management guidelines and procedures. Collateral management has become increasingly technologically developed and automated. Collateral optimization initiatives have been started to make the process more efficient, liquid, and cost effective. Although securities lending is generally an OTC-market with no standard market place, centralized exchange-like models have been introduced. Finnish securities lending has now shifted towards the more common global OTC model. Although the Finnish securities lending industry has developed, and the main laws governing it (tax legislation) have changed, there is still need for development. There are still not many Finnish participants involved and due to legal issues most securities loans are collateralized with cash and not securities (e.g. government bonds).

Climate driven changes in temperature, pH and food quality : effects on copepod reproduction

Increased emissions of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere are causing an anthropogenic climate change. The resulting global warming challenges the ability of organisms to adapt to the new temperature conditions. However, warming is not the only major threat. In marine environments, dissolution of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere causes a decrease in surface water pH, the so called ocean acidification. The temperature and acidification effects can interact, and create even larger problems for the marine flora and fauna than either of the effects would cause alone. I have used Baltic calanoid copepods (crustacean zooplankton) as my research object and studied their growth and stress responses using climate predictions projected for the next century. I have studied both direct temperature and pH effects on copepods, and indirect effects via their food: the changing phytoplankton spring bloom composition and toxic cyanobacterium. The main aims of my thesis were: 1) to find out how warming and acidification combined with a toxic cyanobacterium affect copepod reproductive success (egg production, egg viability, egg hatching success, offspring development) and oxidative balance (antioxidant capacity, oxidative damage), and 2) to reveal the possible food quality effects of spring phytoplankton bloom composition dominated by diatoms or dinoflagellates on reproducing copepods (egg production, egg hatching, RNA:DNA ratio). The two copepod genera used, Acartia sp. and Eurytemora affinis are the dominating mesozooplankton taxa (0.2 – 2 mm) in my study area the Gulf of Finland. The 20°C temperature seems to be within the tolerance limits of Acartia spp., because copepods can adapt to the temperature phenotypically by adjusting their body size. Copepods are also able to tolerate a pH decrease of 0.4 from present values, but the combination of warm water and decreased pH causes problems for them. In my studies, the copepod oxidative balance was negatively influenced by the interaction of these two environmental factors, and egg and nauplii production were lower at 20°C and lower pH, than at 20°C and ambient pH. However, presence of toxic cyanobacterium Nodularia spumigena improved the copepod oxidative balance and helped to resist the environmental stress, in question. In addition, adaptive maternal effects seem to be an important adaptation mechanism in a changing environment, but it depends on the condition of the female copepod and her diet how much she can invest in her offspring. I did not find systematic food quality difference between diatoms and dinoflagellates. There are both good and bad diatom and dinoflagellate species. Instead, the dominating species in the phytoplankton bloom composition has a central role in determining the food quality, although copepods aim at obtaining as a balanced diet as possible by foraging on several species. If the dominating species is of poor quality it can cause stress when ingested, or lead to non-optimal foraging if rejected. My thesis demonstrates that climate change induced water temperature and pH changes can cause problems to Baltic Sea copepod communities. However, their resilience depends substantially on their diet, and therefore the response of phytoplankton to the environmental changes. As copepods are an important link in pelagic food webs, their future success can have far reaching consequences, for example on fish stocks.