Expertly validated models and phylogenetically-controlled analysis suggests responses to climate change are related to species traits in the Order Lagomorpha

Climate change during the last five decades has impacted significantly on natural ecosystems and the rate of current climate change is of great concern among conservation biologists. Species Distribution Models (SDMs) have been used widely to project changes in species’ bioclimatic envelopes under future climate scenarios. Here, we aimed to advance this technique by assessing future changes in the bioclimatic envelopes of an entire mammalian order, the Lagomorpha, using a novel framework for model validation based jointly on subjective expert evaluation and objective model evaluation statistics. SDMs were built using climatic, topographical and habitat variables for all 87 lagomorph species under past and current climate scenarios. Expert evaluation and Kappa values were used to validate past and current models and only those deemed ‘modellable’ within our framework were projected under future climate scenarios (58 species). Phylogenetically-controlled regressions were used to test whether species traits correlated with predicted responses to climate change. Climate change is likely to impact more than two-thirds of lagomorph species, with leporids (rabbits, hares and jackrabbits) likely to undertake poleward shifts with little overall change in range extent, whilst pikas are likely to show extreme shifts to higher altitudes associated with marked range declines, including the likely extinction of Kozlov’s Pika (Ochotona koslowi). Smaller-bodied species were more likely to exhibit range contractions and elevational increases, but showing little poleward movement, and fecund species were more likely to shift latitudinally and elevationally. Our results suggest that species traits may be important indicators of future climate change and we believe multi-species approaches, as demonstrated here, are likely to lead to more effective mitigation measures and conservation management. We strongly advocate studies minimising data gaps in our knowledge of the Order, specifically collecting more specimens for biodiversity archives and targeting data deficient geographic regions.

Spatio-temporal Change in Crowned (Propithecus coronatus) and Decken’s Sifaka (Propithecus deckenii) Habitat in the Mahavavy-Kinkony Wetland Complex, Madagascar.

The crowned sifaka (Propithecus coronatus) and Decken’s sifaka (Propithecus deckenii) are Endangered lemurs endemic to west and central Madagascar. Both have suffered habitat loss and fragmentation throughout their ranges. The goal
of this study, conducted in the Mahavavy-Kinkony Wetland Complex (MKWC) in northwestern Madagascar, was to assess the effects of historical change in the species’ habitats, and to model the potential impact of further land-use change on their habitats. The IDRISI Andes Geographical Information System and image-processing software was used for satellite-image classifiation, and the Land Change Modeler was used to compare the natural habitat of the species from 1973 to 2005, and to predict available habitat for 2050. We analyzed two forests in the MKWC occupied by P. coronatus (Antsilaiza and Anjohibe), and three forests occupied by P. deckenii (Tsiombikibo, Marofandroboka and Andohaomby). The two forests occupied by P. coronatus contracted during the period 1949–1973, but then expanded to exceed their 1949 area by 28% in 2005. However, the land change model predicted that they will contract again to match their 1949 area by 2050, and will again lose their corridor connection, meaning that the conservation gains for this species in the complex are at risk of being reversed. The three forests occupied by P. deckenii have declined in area steadily since 1949, losing 20% of their original area by 2005, and are predicted to lose a further 15% of their original area by 2050. Both species are therefore at risk of becoming even more threatened if land-use change continues within the complex. Improved conservation of the remaining forest is recommended to avoid further loss, as well as ecological restoration and reforestation to promote connectivity between the forests. A new strategy for controlling agriculture and forest use is required in order to avoid further destruction of the forest.

Validation of non‑stationary precipitation series for site‑specific impact assessment: comparison of two statistical downscaling techniques

Statistical downscaling (SD) methods have become a popular, low-cost and accessible means of bridging the gap between the coarse spatial resolution at which climate models output climate scenarios and the finer spatial scale at which impact modellers require these scenarios, with various different SD techniques used for a wide range of applications across the world. This paper compares the Generator for Point Climate Change (GPCC) model and the Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM)—two contrasting SD methods—in terms of their ability to generate precipitation series under non-stationary conditions across ten contrasting global climates. The mean, maximum and a selection of distribution statistics as well as the cumulative frequencies of dry and wet spells for four different temporal resolutions were compared between the models and the observed series for a validation period. Results indicate that both methods can generate daily precipitation series that generally closely mirror observed series for a wide range of non-stationary climates. However, GPCC tends to overestimate higher precipitation amounts, whilst SDSM tends to underestimate these. This infers that GPCC is more likely to overestimate the effects of precipitation on a given impact sector, whilst SDSM is likely to underestimate the effects. GPCC performs better than SDSM in reproducing wet and dry day frequency, which is a key advantage for many impact sectors. Overall, the mixed performance of the two methods illustrates the importance of users performing a thorough validation in order to determine the influence of simulated precipitation on their chosen impact sector.

Holocene vegetation change in relation to fire and volcanic events in Jilin, Northeastern China

Volatiles erupted from large-scale explosive volcanic activities have a significant impact on climate and environmental changes. As an important ecological factor, the occurrence of fire is affected by vegetation cover, and fire can feed back into both vegetation and climatic change. The causes of fire events are diverse; and can include volcanic eruptions. The amount of charcoal in sediment sequences is related to the frequency and intensity of fire, and hence under good preservation conditions fire history can be reconstructed from fossil charcoal abundance. Until now, little research on the role of fire has been carried out in northeastern China. In this study, through research on charcoal and tephra shards from Gushantun and Hanlongwan, Holocene vegetation change in relation to fire and volcanic events in Jilin, Northeastern China, was investigated. Where tephra shards are present in Gushantun it is associated with low level of both conifers and broadleaved trees, and is also associated with a pronounced charcoal peak. This suggests forest cover was greatly reduced from a fire caused by an eruption of the Tianchi volcano. We also detected one tephra layer in Hanlongwan, which also has the almost same depth with low level forest pollen values and one charcoal peak. This was caused probably by an eruption of the Jinlongdingzi volcano.

The Impact of Colleague Peer Review on the Radiotherapy Treatment Planning Process in the Radical Treatment of Lung Cancer

AIMS: Modern radiotherapy uses techniques to reliably identify tumour and reduce target volume margins. However, this can potentially lead to an increased risk of geographic miss. One source of error is the accuracy of target volume delineation (TVD). Colleague peer review (CPR) of all curative-intent lung cancer plans has been mandatory in our institution since May 2013. At least two clinical oncologists review plans, checking treatment paradigm, TVD, prescription dose tumour and critical organ tolerances. We report the impact of CPR in our institution.

MATERIALS AND METHODS: Radiotherapy treatment plans of all patients receiving radical radiotherapy were presented at weekly CPR meetings after their target volumes were reviewed and signed off by the treating consultant. All cases and any resultant change to TVD (including organs at risk) or treatment intent were recorded in our prospective CPR database. The impact of CPR over a 13 month period from May 2013 to June 2014 is reported.

RESULTS: One hundred and twenty-two patients (63% non-small cell lung carcinoma, 17% small cell lung carcinoma and 20% 'clinical diagnosis') were analysed. On average, 3.2 cases were discussed per meeting (range 1-8). CPR resulted in a change in treatment paradigm in 3% (one patient proceeded to induction chemotherapy, two patients had high-dose palliative radiotherapy). Twenty-one (17%) had a change in TVD and one (1%) patient had a change in dose prescription. In total, 6% of patients had plan adjustment after review of dose volume histogram.

CONCLUSION: The introduction of CPR in our centre has resulted in a change in a component of the treatment plan for 27% of patients receiving curative-intent lung radiotherapy. We recommend CPR as a mandatory quality assurance step in the planning process of all radical lung plans.

Impact of an enhanced antibiotic stewardship on reducing methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus in primary and secondary healthcare settings

The objective of this study was to evaluate the impact of restricting high-risk antibiotics on methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) incidence rates in a hospital setting. A secondary objective was to assess the impact of reducing fluoroquinolone use in the primary-care setting on MRSA incidence in the community. This was an interventional, retrospective, ecological investigation in both hospital and community (January 2006 to June 2010). Segmented regression analysis of interrupted time-series was employed to evaluate the intervention. The restriction of high-risk antibiotics was associated with a significant change in hospital MRSA incidence trend (coefficient=-0·00561, P=0·0057). Analysis showed that the intervention relating to reducing fluoroquinolone use in the community was associated with a significant trend change in MRSA incidence in community (coefficient=-0·00004, P=0·0299). The reduction in high-risk antibiotic use and fluoroquinolone use contributed to both a reduction in incidence rates of MRSA in hospital and community (primary-care) settings. 

Differential ecological impacts of an invader and a native under environmental change are revealed by comparative functional responses.

Predicting the ecological impacts of damaging invasive species under relevant environmental contexts is a major challenge, for which comparative functional responses (the relationship between resource availability and consumer uptake rate) have great potential. Here, the functional responses of Gammarus pulex, an ecologically damaging invader in freshwaters in Ireland and other islands, were compared with those of a native trophic equivalent Gammarus duebeni celticus. Experiments were conducted at two dissolved oxygen concentrations (80 and 50 % saturation), representative of anthropogenic water quality changes, using two larval prey, blackfly (Simuliidae spp.) and mayfly (Baetis rhodani). Overall, G. pulex had higher Type II functional responses and hence predatory impacts than G. d. celticus and the functional responses of both predators were reduced by lowered oxygen concentration. However, this reduction was of lower magnitude for the invader as compared to the native. Further, the invader functional response at low oxygen was comparable to that of the native at high oxygen. Attack rates of the two predators were similar, with low oxygen reducing these attack rates, but this effect occurred more strongly for blackfly than mayfly prey. Handling times were significantly lower for the invader compared with the native, and significantly higher at low oxygen, however, the effect of lowered oxygen on handling times was minimal for the invader and pronounced for the native. Maximum feeding rates were significantly greater for the invader compared with the native, and significantly reduced at low oxygen, with this effect again lesser for the invader as compared to the native. The greater functional responses of the invader corroborate with its impacts on recipient macroinvertebrate communities when it replaces the native. Further, our experiments predict that the impact of the invader will be less affected than the native under altered oxygen regimes driven by anthropogenic influences.

Beyond the Academy: Applying Anthropological Research, A Case Study of Demonstrating Impact in the U.K. 2014 REF

The 2014 Research Excellence Framework sought for the first time to assess the impact that research was having beyond the boundaries of the university and the wider academic sphere. While the REF continued the approach of previous research assessment exercises in attempting to measure the overall quality of research and teaching within the higher-education sector, it also expected institutions to evidence how some of their research had had ‘an effect on, change or benefit to the economy, society, culture, public policy or services, health, the environment or quality of life, beyond academia’ (REF 2012: 48). This article provides a case study in how researchers in one U.K. anthropology department were able to demonstrate the impact of their work in the public sphere successfully as part of this major audit exercise.

Emotional response to images of wind turbines: A psychophysiological study of their visual impact on the landscape

Social acceptance for wind turbines is variable, providing a challenge to the implementation of this energy source. Psychological research could contribute to the science of climate change. Here we focus on the emotional responses to the visual impact of wind turbines on the landscape, a factor which dominates attitudes towards this technology. Participants in the laboratory viewed images of turbines and other constructions (churches, pylons and power-plants) against rural scenes, and provided psychophysiological and self-report measures of their emotional reactions. We hypothesised that the emotional response to wind turbines would be more negative and intense than to control objects, and that this difference would be accentuated for turbine opponents. As predicted, the psychophysiological response to turbines was stronger than the response to churches, but did not differ from that of other industrial constructions. In contrast with predictions, turbines were rated as less aversive and more calming compared with other industrial constructions, and equivalent to churches. Supporters and non-supporters did not differ significantly from each other. We discuss how a methodology using photo manipulations and emotional self-assessments can help estimate the emotional reaction to the visual impact on the landscape at the planning stage for new wind turbine applications.

Social housing tenants, Climate Change and sustainable living: A study of awareness, behaviours and willingness to adapt

Despite a focus in the UK on providing sustainable housing in recent years, it is unlikely that targets set to reduce resource consumption in housing will be achieved without a greater focus on human behaviour. It is necessary to understand the actions of people occupying dwellings, as it is invariably the occupants rather than the buildings that decided whether or not to consume resources. In this paper the authors present a pilot study where 53 social housing tenant households in Northern Ireland were interviewed to ascertain their perceptions of Climate Change, their current behaviours and their willingness to reduce energy and water consumption in the home. The intention was to explore links between perceptions and reported behaviour as well as perceptions and willingness to reduce resource consumption. Results show that 77% of tenants believed Climate Change to be an important issue; 57% accepted that it is up to the individual to take responsibility for tackling Climate Change; and demonstrated a strong desire to make a difference to reduce their impact. The researchers identified both passive (devices) and active (behaviours) resource savings currently in place and established where further resource reduction was feasible based on tenants' willingness to alter their behaviours.

The impact of an educational DVD on pregnant women with gestational diabetes mellitus: a randomised controlled trial

Background The diagnosis of gestational diabetes (GDM) during pregnancy can lead to anxiety. Little research has focused on the education these women receive and how this is best delivered in a busy clinic. Aim This study evaluated the impact of an innovative patient-centred educational DVD on anxiety and glycaemic control and in newly diagnosed women with GDM. Method 150 multi-ethnic women, aged 19-44 years, from three UK hospitals were randomised to either standard care plus DVD (DVD group, n=77) or standard care alone (control group, n=73) at GDM diagnosis. Women were followed up at their next clinic visit at a mean ± SD of 2.5 ± 1.6 weeks later. Primary outcomes were anxiety (State-Trait Anxiety Inventory) and mean 1-hour postprandial capillary self-monitored blood glucose for all meals, on day prior to follow-up. Secondary outcomes included pregnancy specific stress (Pregnancy Distress Questionnaire), emotional adjustment to diabetes (Appraisal of Diabetes Scale), self-efficacy (Diabetes Empowerment Scale) and GDM knowledge (non-validated questionnaire). Other outcomes included mean fasting and 1-hour postprandial blood glucose at each meal, on day prior to follow-up. Women in the DVD group completed a feedback questionnaire on the resource. Results No significant difference between the DVD and control group were reported, for anxiety (37.7 ± 11.7 vs 36.2 ± 10.9; mean difference after adjustment for covariates (95%CI) 2.5 (-0.8, 5.9) or for mean 1-hour postprandial glucose (6.9 ± 0.9 vs 7.0 ± 1.2 mmol/L; -0.2 (-0.5, 0.2). Similarly, no significant differences in the other psychosocial variables were identified between the groups. However, the DVD group had significantly lower postprandial breakfast glucose compared to the control group (6.8 ± 1.2 vs 7.4 ± 1.9 mmol/L; -0.5 (-1.1, -<0.1; p=0.04). Using a scale of 0-10, 84% rated the DVD 7 or above for usefulness (10 being very useful), and 88% rated it 7 or above when asked if they would recommend to a friend (10 being very strongly recommend). Women described the DVD as ‘reassuring’, ‘a fantastic tool’, that ‘provided a lot of information in a quick and easy way’ and ‘helped reinforce all the information from clinic’. Discussion While no significant change was observed in anxiety or mean postprandial glucose, the DVD was rated highly by women with GDM and may be a useful resource to assist with educating newly diagnosed women. This project is supported by BRIDGES, an IDF programme supported by an educational grant from Lilly Diabetes.

Species composition of coastal dune vegetation in Scotland has proved resistant to climate change over a third of a century

Climate change is expected to have an impact on plant communities as increased temperatures are expected to drive individual species' distributions polewards. The results of a revisitation study after c. 34years of 89 coastal sites in Scotland, UK, were examined to assess the degree of shifts in species composition that could be accounted for by climate change. There was little evidence for either species retreat northwards or for plots to become more dominated by species with a more southern distribution. At a few sites where significant change occurred, the changes were accounted for by the invasion, or in one instance the removal, of woody species. Also, the vegetation types that showed the most sensitivity to change were all early successional types and changes were primarily the result of succession rather than climate-driven changes. Dune vegetation appears resistant to climate change impacts on the vegetation, either as the vegetation is inherently resistant to change, management prevents increased dominance of more southerly species or because of dispersal limitation to geographically isolated sites.

Availability and transfer to grain of As, Cd, Cu, Ni, Pb and Zn in a barley agri-system: Impact of biochar, organic and mineral fertilizers

With biochar becoming an emerging soil amendment and a tool to mitigate climate change, there are only a few studies documenting its effects on trace element cycling in agriculture. Zn and Cu are deficient in many human diets, whilst exposures to As, Pb and Cd need to be decreased. Biochar has been shown to affect many of them mainly at a bench or greenhouse scale, but field research is not available. In our experiment we studied the impact of biochar, as well as its interactions with organic (compost and sewage sludge) and mineral fertilisers (NPK and nitrosulfate), on trace element mobility in a Mediterranean agricultural field (east of Madrid, Spain) cropped with barley. At harvesting time, we analysed the soluble fraction, the available fraction (assessed with the diffusive gradients in thin gels technique, DGT) and the concentration of trace elements in barley grain. No treatment was able to significantly increase Zn, Cu or Ni concentration in barley grain, limiting the application for cereal fortification. Biochar helped to reduce Cd and Pb in grain, whereas As concentration slightly increased. Overall biochar amendments demonstrated a potential to decrease Cd uptake in cereals, a substantial pathway of exposure in the Spanish population, whereas mineral fertilisation and sewage sludge increased grain Cd and Pb. In the soil, biochar helped to stabilise Pb and Cd, while marginally increasing As release/mobilisation. Some of the fertilisation practises or treatments increased toxic metals and As solubility in soil, but never to an extent high enough to be considered an environmental risk. Future research may try to fortify Zn, Cu and Ni using other combinations of organic amendments and different parent biomass to produce enriched biochars.

Adaptable housing design for climate change adaptation

It is predicted that climate change will result in rising sea levels, more frequent and extreme weather events, hotter and drier summers and warmer and wetter winters. This will have a significant impact on the design of buildings, how they are kept cool and how they are weathered against more extreme climatic conditions. The residential sector is already a significant environmental burden with high associated operational energy. Climate change, and a growing population requiring residence, has the potential to exacerbate this problem seriously. New paradigms for residential building design are required to enable low-carbon dioxide operation to mitigate climate change. They must also face the reality of inevitable climate change and adopt climate change adaptation strategies to cope with future scenarios. However, any climate adaptation strategy for dwellings must also be cognisant of adapting occupant needs, influenced by ageing populations and new technologies. This paper presents concepts and priorities for changing how society designs residential buildings by designing for adaptation. A case study home is analysed in the context of its stated aims of low energy and adaptability. A post-occupancy evaluation of the house is presented, and future-proofing strategies are evaluated using climate projection data for future climate change scenarios.

Pine wilt disease: global issues, trade and economic impact

Pine wilt disease (PWD) is perhaps the most serious threat to pine forests worldwide. Since it´s discovery in the early XXth century by Japanese forest researchers, and the relationship with its causative agent, the pinewood nematode (PWN) Bursaphelenchus xylophilus, in the 1970s, PWD has wreaked havoc wherever it appears. Firstly in the Far East (Japan, China and Korea) and now, more recently in 1999, in the EU (Portugal). The forest sector in Portugal plays a major role in the Portuguese economy with a 12% contribution to the industrial gross domestic product, 3.2% of the gross domestic product, 10% of foreign trade and 5% of national employment. Maritime pine (Pinus pinaster) is one of the most important pine productions, and industrial activity, such as the production of wood and resin, as well as coastal protection associated with sand dunes. Also, stone pine (Pinus pinea) plays an important role in the economy with a share derived from the exports of high-quality pineon seed. Thus, the tremendous economical and ecological impact of the introduction of a pest and pathogen such as the PWN, although as far as is known, the only species susceptible to the nematode is maritime pine. Immediately following detection, the research team involved (Univ. Évora, INIAP) informed the national plant quarantine and forest authorities, which relayed the information to Brussels and the appropriate EU authorities. A task force (GANP), followed by a national program (PROLUNP) was established. Since then, national surveys have been taking place, involving MADRP (Ministry of Agriculture), the University of Évora and several private corporations (e.g. UNAC). Forest growers in the area are particularly interested and involved since the area owned by the growers organizations totals 700 000 ha, largely affected by PWD. Detection of the disease has led to serious consequences and restrictions regarding exploration and commercialization of wood. A precautionary phytosanitary strip, 3 km-wide, has been recently (2007) established surrounding the affected area. The Portuguese government, through its national program PROLUNP, has been deeply involved since 1999, and in conjunction with the EU (Permanent Phytosanitary Committee, and FVO) and committed to controlling this nematode and the potential spread to the rest of the country and to the rest of the EU. The global impact of the presence of Bursaphelenchus xylophilus or the threat of its introduction and the resulting pine wilt disease in forested areas in different parts of the world is of increasing concern economically. The concern is exacerbated by the prevailing debate on climate change and the putative impact this could have on the vulnerability of the world’s pine forests to this disease. The scientific and regulatory approach taken in different jurisdictions to the threat of pine wilt disease varies from country to country depending on the perceived vulnerability of their pine forests to the disease and/or to the economic cost due to lost trade in wood products. Much of the research surrounding pine wilt disease has been located in the northern hemisphere, especially in southern Europe and in the warmer, coastal, Asian countries. However, there is an increased focus on this problem also in those countries in the southern hemisphere where plantations of susceptible pine have been established over the years. The forestry sector in Australia and New Zealand are on “high alert” for this disease and are practicing strict quarantine procedures at all ports of entry for wood products. As well, there is heightened awareness, as there is worldwide, for the need to monitor wood packaging materials for all imported goods. In carrying out the necessary monitoring and assessment of products for B. xylophilus and its vectors substantial costs are incurred especially when decisions have to be made rapidly and regardless of whether the outcome is positive or negative. Australia’s response recently to the appearance of some dying pines in a plantation illustrated the high sensitivity of some countries to this disease. Some $200,000 was spent on the assessment in order to save a potential loss of millions of dollars to the disease. This rapid, co-ordinated response to the report was for naught, because once identified it was found not to be B. xylophilus. This illustrates the particular importance of taking the responsibility at all levels of management to secure the site and the need of a rapid, reliable diagnostic method for small nematode samples for use in the field. Australia is particularly concerned about the vulnerability of its 1million hectares of planted forests, 80% of which are Pinus species, to attack from incursions of one or more species of the insect vector. Monochamus alternatus incursions in wood pallets have been reported from Brisbane, Queensland. The climate of this part of Australia is such that the Pinus plantations are particularly vulnerable to the potential outcome of such incursions, and the state of Queensland is developing a risk management strategy and a proactive breeding programme in response to this putative threat. New Zealand has 1.6 million hectares of planted forests and 89% of the commercial forest is Pinus radiata. Although the climate where these forests are located tends to be somewhat cooler than that in Australia the potential for establishment and development of the disease in that country is believed to be high. The passage alone of 200,000 m³/year of wood packaging through New Zealand ports is itself sufficient to require response. The potential incursion of insect vectors of pinewood nematode through the port system is regarded as high and is monitored carefully. The enormous expansion of global trade and the continued use of unprocessed/inadequately-processed wood for packaging purposes is a challenge for all trading nations as such wood packaging material often harbours disease or pest species. The extent of this problem is readily illustrated by the expanding economies and exports of countries in south-east Asia. China. Japan and Korea have significant areas of forestland infested with B. xylophilus. These countries too are among the largest exporting countries of manufactured goods. Despite the attempts of authorities to ensure that only properly treated wood is used in the crating and packaging of goods B. xylophilus and/or its insect vector infested materials is being recorded at ports worldwide. This reminds us, therefore, of the ease with which this nematode pest can gain access to forest lands in new geographic locations through inappropriate use, treatment or monitoring of wood products. It especially highlights the necessity to find an alternative to using low-grade lumber for packaging purposes. Lest we should believe that all wood products are always carriers of B. xylophilus and its vectors, it should be remembered that international trade of all kinds has occurred for thousands of years and that lumber-born pests and diseases do not have worldwide distribution. Other physico-biological factors have a significant role in the occurrence, establishment and sustainability of a disease. The question is often raised as to why the whole of southern Europe doesn’t already have B. xylophilus and pine wilt disease. European countries have traded with countries that are infested with B. xylophilus for hundreds of years. Turkey is an example of a country that appears to be highly vulnerable to pine wilt disease due to its extensive forests in the warm, southern region where the vector, Monochamus galloprovincialis, occurs. However, there is no record of the presence of B. xylophilus occurring there despite the importation of substantial quantities of wood from several countries In many respects, Portugal illustrates both the challenge and the dilemma. In recent times B. xylophilus was discovered there in the warm coastal region. The research, administrative and quarantine authorities responded rapidly and B. xylophilus appears to have been confined to the region in which it was found. The rapid response would seem to have “saved the day” for Portugal. Nevertheless, it raises again the long-standing questions, how long had B. xylophilus been in Portugal before it was found? If Lisbon was the port of entry, which seems very likely, why had B. xylophilus not entered Lisbon many years earlier and established populations and the pine wilt disease? Will the infestation in Portugal be sustainable and will it spread or will it die out within a few years? We still do not have sufficient understanding of the biology of this pest to know the answers to these questions.