An on-line algorithm of uncertain time delay estimation in a continuous system

In this paper, we present an on-line estimation algorithm for an uncertain time delay in a continuous system based on the observational input-output data, subject to observational noise. The first order Pade approximation is used to approximate the time delay. At each time step, the algorithm combines the well known Kalman filter algorithm and the recursive instrumental variable least squares (RIVLS) algorithm in cascade form. The instrumental variable least squares algorithm is used in order to achieve the consistency of the delay parameter estimate, since an error-in-the-variable model is involved. An illustrative example is utilized to demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed approach.

Baroclinic stationary waves in aquaplanet models

An aquaplanet model is used to study the nature of the highly persistent low-frequency waves that have been observed in models forced by zonally symmetric boundary conditions. Using the Hayashi spectral analysis of the extratropical waves, the authors find that a quasi-stationary wave 5 belongs to a wave packet obeying a well-defined dispersion relation with eastward group velocity. The components of the dispersion relation with k ≥ 5 baroclinically convert eddy available potential energy into eddy kinetic energy, whereas those with k < 5 are baroclinically neutral. In agreement with Green’s model of baroclinic instability, wave 5 is weakly unstable, and the inverse energy cascade, which had been previously proposed as a main forcing for this type of wave, only acts as a positive feedback on its predominantly baroclinic energetics. The quasi-stationary wave is reinforced by a phase lock to an analogous pattern in the tropical convection, which provides further amplification to the wave. It is also found that the Pedlosky bounds on the phase speed of unstable waves provide guidance in explaining the latitudinal structure of the energy conversion, which is shown to be more enhanced where the zonal westerly surface wind is weaker. The wave’s energy is then trapped in the waveguide created by the upper tropospheric jet stream. In agreement with Green’s theory, as the equator-to-pole SST difference is reduced, the stationary marginally stable component shifts toward higher wavenumbers, while wave 5 becomes neutral and westward propagating. Some properties of the aquaplanet quasi-stationary waves are found to be in interesting agreement with a low frequency wave observed by Salby during December–February in the Southern Hemisphere so that this perspective on low frequency variability, apart from its value in terms of basic geophysical fluid dynamics, might be of specific interest for studying the earth’s atmosphere.

The advection of high-resolution tracers by low-resolution winds

The usefulness of any simulation of atmospheric tracers using low-resolution winds relies on both the dominance of large spatial scales in the strain and time dependence that results in a cascade in tracer scales. Here, a quantitative study on the accuracy of such tracer studies is made using the contour advection technique. It is shown that, although contour stretching rates are very insensitive to the spatial truncation of the wind field, the displacement errors in filament position are sensitive. A knowledge of displacement characteristics is essential if Lagrangian simulations are to be used for the inference of airmass origin. A quantitative lower estimate is obtained for the tracer scale factor (TSF): the ratio of the smallest resolved scale in the advecting wind field to the smallest “trustworthy” scale in the tracer field. For a baroclinic wave life cycle the TSF = 6.1 ± 0.3 while for the Northern Hemisphere wintertime lower stratosphere the TSF = 5.5 ± 0.5, when using the most stringent definition of the trustworthy scale. The similarity in the TSF for the two flows is striking and an explanation is discussed in terms of the activity of potential vorticity (PV) filaments. Uncertainty in contour initialization is investigated for the stratospheric case. The effect of smoothing initial contours is to introduce a spinup time, after which wind field truncation errors take over from initialization errors (2–3 days). It is also shown that false detail from the proliferation of finescale filaments limits the useful lifetime of such contour advection simulations to 3σ−1 days, where σ is the filament thinning rate, unless filaments narrower than the trustworthy scale are removed by contour surgery. In addition, PV analysis error and diabatic effects are so strong that only PV filaments wider than 50 km are at all believable, even for very high-resolution winds. The minimum wind field resolution required to accurately simulate filaments down to the erosion scale in the stratosphere (given an initial contour) is estimated and the implications for the modeling of atmospheric chemistry are briefly discussed.

Monophosphothreonyl extracellular signal-regulated kinases 1 and 2 (ERK1/2) are formed endogenously in intact cardiac myocytes and are enzymically active

ERK1 and ERK2 (ERK1/2) are central to the regulation of cell division, growth and survival. They are activated by phosphorylation of the Thr- and the Tyr- residues in their Thr-Glu-Tyr activation loops. The dogma is that dually-phosphorylated ERK1/2 constitute the principal activities in intact cells. We previously showed that, in neonatal rat cardiac myocytes, endothelin-1 and phorbol 12-myristate 13-acetate (PMA) powerfully and rapidly (maximal at ~ 5 min) activate ERK1/2. Here, we show that dually-phosphorylated ERK1/2 rapidly (< 2 min) appear in the nucleus following stimulation with endothelin-1. We characterized the active ERK1/2 species in myocytes exposed to endothelin-1 or PMA using MonoQ FPLC. Unexpectedly, two peaks of ERK1 and two peaks of ERK2 activity were resolved using in vitro kinase assays. One of each of these represented the dually-phosphorylated species. The other two represented activities for ERK1 or ERK2 which were phosphorylated solely on the Thr- residue. Monophosphothreonyl ERK1/2 represented maximally ~ 30% of total ERK1/2 activity after stimulation with endothelin-1 or PMA, and their kcat values were estimated to be minimally ~ 30% of the dually-phosphorylated species. Appearance of monophosphothreonyl ERK1/2 was rapid but delayed in comparison with dually-phosphorylated ERK1/2. Of 10 agonists studied, endothelin-1 and PMA were most effective in terms of ERK1/2 activation and in stimulating the appearance of monophosphothreonyl and dually-phosphorylated ERK1/2. Thus, enzymically active monophosphothreonyl ERK1/2 are formed endogenously following activation of the ERK1/2 cascade and we suggest that monophosphothreonyl ERK1/2 arise by protein tyrosine phosphatase-mediated dephosphorylation of dually-phosphorylated ERK1/2.

Glycogen synthase kinases 3α and 3β in cardiac myocytes: regulation and consequences of their inhibition

Inhibition of glycogen synthase kinase 3β (GSK3β) as a consequence of its phosphorylation by protein kinase B/Akt (PKB/Akt) has been implicated in cardiac myocyte hypertrophy in response to endothelin-1 or phenylephrine. We examined the regulation of GSK3α (which we show to constitute a significant proportion of the myocyte GSK3 pool) and GSK3β in cardiac myocytes. Although endothelin increases phosphorylation of GSK3 and decreases its activity, the response is less than that induced by insulin (which does not promote cardiac myocyte hypertrophy). GSK3 phosphorylation induced by endothelin requires signalling through the extracellular signal-regulated kinase 1/2 (ERK1/2) cascade and not the PKB/Akt pathway, whereas the reverse is true for insulin. Cardiac myocyte hypertrophy involves changes in morphology, and in gene and protein expression. The potent GSK3 inhibitor 1-azakenpaullone increases myocyte area as a consequence of increased cell length whereas phenylephrine increases both length and width. Azakenpaullone or insulin promotes AP1 transcription factor binding to an AP1 consensus oligonucleotide, but this was significantly less than that induced by endothelin and derived principally from increased binding of JunB protein, the expression of which was increased. Azakenpaullone promotes significant changes in gene expression (assessed by Affymetrix microarrays), but the overall response is less than with endothelin and there is little overlap between the genes identified. Thus, although GSK3 may contribute to cardiac myocyte hypertrophy in some respects (and presumably plays an important role in myocyte metabolism), it does not appear to contribute as significantly to the response induced by endothelin as has been maintained.

Modulation of pro-survival Akt/protein kinase B and ERK1/2 signaling cascades by quercetin and its in vivo metabolites underlie their action on neuronal viability

Much recent interest has focused on the potential of flavonoids to interact with intracellular signaling pathways such as with the mitogen-activated protein kinase cascade. We have investigated whether the observed strong neurotoxic potential of quercetin in primary cortical neurons may occur via specific and sensitive interactions within neuronal mitogen-activated protein kinase and Akt/protein kinase B (PKB) signaling cascades, both implicated in neuronal apoptosis. Quercetin induced potent inhibition of both Akt/PKB and ERK phosphorylation, resulting in reduced phosphorylation of BAD and a strong activation of caspase-3. High quercetin concentrations (30 microM) led to sustained loss of Akt phosphorylation and subsequent Akt cleavage by caspase-3, whereas at lower concentrations (<10 microM) the inhibition of Akt phosphorylation was transient and eventually returned to basal levels. Lower levels of quercetin also induced strong activation of the pro-survival transcription factor cAMP-responsive element-binding protein, although this did not prevent neuronal damage. O-Methylated quercetin metabolites inhibited Akt/PKB to lesser extent and did not induce such strong activation of caspase-3, which was reflected in the lower amount of damage they inflicted on neurons. In contrast, neither quercetin nor its O-methylated metabolites had any measurable effect on c-Jun N-terminal kinase phosphorylation. The glucuronide of quercetin was not toxic and did not evoke any alterations in neuronal signaling, probably reflecting its inability to enter neurons. Together these data suggest that quercetin and to a lesser extent its O-methylated metabolites may induce neuronal death via a mechanism involving an inhibition of neuronal survival signaling through the inhibition of both Akt/PKB and ERK rather than by an activation of the c-Jun N-terminal kinase-mediated death pathway.

Dimetallic complexes of macrocycles with two rigid dibenzofuran units as receptors for detection of anionic substrates

The hexaazamacrocycles [28](DBF)2N6 {cyclo[bis(4,6-dimethyldibenzo[b,d]furaniminoethyleneiminoethylene]} and [32](DBF)2N6 {cyclo[bis(4,6-dimethyldibenzo[b,d]furaniminopropyleneiminopropylene]} form stable dinuclear copper(II) complexes suitable to behave as receptors for several anionic substrates. These two receptors were used to study the binding interactions with several substrates, such as imidazole (Him) and some carboxylates [benzoate (bz−), oxalate (ox2−), malonate (mal2−), phthalate (ph2−), isophthalate (iph2−), and terephthalate (tph2−)] by spectrophotometric titrations and EPR spectroscopy in MeOH (or H2O):DMSO (1:1 v/v) solution. The largest association constant was found for ox2− with Cu2[32](DBF)2N64+, whereas for the aromatic dicarboxylate anions the binding constants follow the trend ph2− > iph2− > tph2−, i.e. decrease with the increase of the distance of the two binding sites of the substrate. On the other hand, the large blue shift of 68 nm observed by addition of Him to Cu2[32](DBF)2N64+ points out for the formation of the bridged CuimCu cascade complex, indicating this receptor as a potential sensor for the detection and determination of imidazole in solution. The X-band EPR spectra of the Cu2[28](DBF)2N64+ and Cu2[32](DBF)2N6]4+ complexes and the cascade complexes with the substrates, performed in H2O:DMSO (1:1 v/v) at 5 to 15 K, showed that the CuCu distance is slightly larger than the one found in crystal state and that this distance increases when the substrate is accommodated between the two copper centres. The crystal structure of [Cu2[28](DBF)2N6(ph)2]·CH3OH was determined by X-ray diffraction and revealed the two copper centres bridged by two ph2− anions at a Cu···Cu distance of 5.419(1) Å. Each copper centre is surrounded by three carboxylate oxygen atoms from two phthalate anions and three contiguous nitrogen atoms of the macrocycle in a pseudo octahedral coordination environment.

Diallyl disulphide, a beneficial component of garlic oil, causes a redistribution of cell-cycle growth phases, induces apoptosis and enhances butyrate-induced apoptosis in colorectal adenocarcinoma cells (HT-29)

Colon cancer is a leading and expanding cause of death worldwide. A major contributory factor to this disease is diet composition; some components are beneficial (e.g. dietary fibre) whilst others are detrimental (e.g. alcohol). Garlic oil is a prominent dietary constituent that prevents the development of colorectal cancer. This effect is believed to be mainly due to diallyl disulphide (DADS), which selectively induces redox stress in cancerous (rather than normal) cells which leads to apoptotic cell death. However, the detailed mechanism by which DADS causes apoptosis remains unclear. We show that DADS-treatment of colonic adenocarcinoma cells (HT-29) initiates a cascade of molecular events characteristic of apoptosis. These include a decrease in cellular proliferation, translocation of phosphatidylserine to the plasma-membrane outer-layer, activation of caspase-3, genomic-DNA fragmentation and G2/M phase cell-cycle arrest. Short-chain fatty acids (SCFAs), particularly butyrate (abundantly produced in the gut by bacterial fermentation of dietary polysaccharides), enhance colonic cell integrity but, in contrast, inhibit colonic-cancer cell growth. Combining DADS with butyrate augmented the effect of butyrate on HT-29 cells. These results suggest that the anti-cancerous properties of DADS afford greater benefit when supplied with other favourable dietary factors (SCFA/polysaccharides) that likewise reduce colonic tumour development.

Modulation of neuroinflammation by dietary flavonoids

There is increasing evidence to suggest neuroinflammatory processes contribute to the cascade of events that lead to the progressive neuronal damage observed in neurodegenerative disorders such as Parkinson’s disease and Alzheimer’s disease. The molecular mechanisms underlying such neurodegenerative processes are rather complex and involve modulation of the mitogen-activated protein kinase (MAPK) and NF-κB pathways leading to the generation of nitric oxide (NO). Such a small molecule may diffuse to the neighbouring neurons and trigger neuronal death through the inhibition of mitochondrial respiration and increases in the reactive oxygen and nitrogen species. Recently, attention has focused on the neuroprotective effects of flavonoids which have been effective in protecting against both age-related cognitive and motor decline in vivo. Although, the precise mechanisms by which flavonoids may exert their neuroprotective effects remain unclear, accumulating evidence suggest that they may exert their neuroprotective effects through the modulation of the MAP Kinase and PI3 Kinase signaling pathways. The aim of the present chapter is to highlight the potential neuroprotective role of dietary flavonoids in terms of their ability to modulate neuroinflammation in the central nervous system. We will provide an outline of the role glial cells play in neuroinflammation and describe the involvement of inflammatory mediators, produced by glia, in the cascade of events leading to neuronal degeneration. We will then present the evidence that flavonoids may modulate neuroinflammation by inhibiting the production of these inflammatory agents and summarise their potential mechanisms of action.

Nitrogen flows from European watersheds to coastal marine waters

Nitrogen flows from European watersheds to coastal marine waters Executive summary Nature of the problem • Most regional watersheds in Europe constitute managed human territories importing large amounts of new reactive nitrogen. • As a consequence, groundwater, surface freshwater and coastal seawater are undergoing severe nitrogen contamination and/or eutrophication problems. Approaches • A comprehensive evaluation of net anthropogenic inputs of reactive nitrogen (NANI) through atmospheric deposition, crop N fixation,fertiliser use and import of food and feed has been carried out for all European watersheds. A database on N, P and Si fluxes delivered at the basin outlets has been assembled. • A number of modelling approaches based on either statistical regression analysis or mechanistic description of the processes involved in nitrogen transfer and transformations have been developed for relating N inputs to watersheds to outputs into coastal marine ecosystems. Key findings/state of knowledge • Throughout Europe, NANI represents 3700 kgN/km2/yr (range, 0–8400 depending on the watershed), i.e. five times the background rate of natural N2 fixation. • A mean of approximately 78% of NANI does not reach the basin outlet, but instead is stored (in soils, sediments or ground water) or eliminated to the atmosphere as reactive N forms or as N2. • N delivery to the European marine coastal zone totals 810 kgN/km2/yr (range, 200–4000 depending on the watershed), about four times the natural background. In areas of limited availability of silica, these inputs cause harmful algal blooms. Major uncertainties/challenges • The exact dimension of anthropogenic N inputs to watersheds is still imperfectly known and requires pursuing monitoring programmes and data integration at the international level. • The exact nature of ‘retention’ processes, which potentially represent a major management lever for reducing N contamination of water resources, is still poorly understood. • Coastal marine eutrophication depends to a large degree on local morphological and hydrographic conditions as well as on estuarine processes, which are also imperfectly known. Recommendations • Better control and management of the nitrogen cascade at the watershed scale is required to reduce N contamination of ground- and surface water, as well as coastal eutrophication. • In spite of the potential of these management measures, there is no choice at the European scale but to reduce the primary inputs of reactive nitrogen to watersheds, through changes in agriculture, human diet and other N flows related to human activity.

The kinetics of thermal generation of flavour

Control and optimization of flavor is the ultimate challenge for the food and flavor industry. The major route to flavor formation during thermal processing is the Maillard reaction, which is a complex cascade of interdependent reactions initiated by the reaction between a reducing sugar and an amino compd. The complexity of the reaction means that researchers turn to kinetic modeling in order to understand the control points of the reaction and to manipulate the flavor profile. Studies of the kinetics of flavor formation have developed over the past 30 years from single- response empirical models of binary aq. systems to sophisticated multi-response models in food matrixes, based on the underlying chem., with the power to predict the formation of some key aroma compds. This paper discusses in detail the development of kinetic models of thermal generation of flavor and looks at the challenges involved in predicting flavor.

Scheduling satellite-based SAR acquisition for sequential assimilation of water level observations into flood modelling

Satellite-based Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) has proved useful for obtaining information on flood extent, which, when intersected with a Digital Elevation Model (DEM) of the floodplain, provides water level observations that can be assimilated into a hydrodynamic model to decrease forecast uncertainty. With an increasing number of operational satellites with SAR capability, information on the relationship between satellite first visit and revisit times and forecast performance is required to optimise the operational scheduling of satellite imagery. By using an Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (ETKF) and a synthetic analysis with the 2D hydrodynamic model LISFLOOD-FP based on a real flooding case affecting an urban area (summer 2007,Tewkesbury, Southwest UK), we evaluate the sensitivity of the forecast performance to visit parameters. We emulate a generic hydrologic-hydrodynamic modelling cascade by imposing a bias and spatiotemporal correlations to the inflow error ensemble into the hydrodynamic domain. First, in agreement with previous research, estimation and correction for this bias leads to a clear improvement in keeping the forecast on track. Second, imagery obtained early in the flood is shown to have a large influence on forecast statistics. Revisit interval is most influential for early observations. The results are promising for the future of remote sensing-based water level observations for real-time flood forecasting in complex scenarios.

Constraints on the spectral distribution of energy and enstrophy dissipation in forced two-dimensional turbulence

We study two-dimensional (2D) turbulence in a doubly periodic domain driven by a monoscale-like forcing and damped by various dissipation mechanisms of the form νμ(−Δ)μ. By “monoscale-like” we mean that the forcing is applied over a finite range of wavenumbers kmin≤k≤kmax, and that the ratio of enstrophy injection η≥0 to energy injection ε≥0 is bounded by kmin2ε≤η≤kmax2ε. Such a forcing is frequently considered in theoretical and numerical studies of 2D turbulence. It is shown that for μ≥0 the asymptotic behaviour satisfies ∥u∥12≤kmax2∥u∥2, where ∥u∥2 and ∥u∥12 are the energy and enstrophy, respectively. If the condition of monoscale-like forcing holds only in a time-mean sense, then the inequality holds in the time mean. It is also shown that for Navier–Stokes turbulence (μ=1), the time-mean enstrophy dissipation rate is bounded from above by 2ν1kmax2. These results place strong constraints on the spectral distribution of energy and enstrophy and of their dissipation, and thereby on the existence of energy and enstrophy cascades, in such systems. In particular, the classical dual cascade picture is shown to be invalid for forced 2D Navier–Stokes turbulence (μ=1) when it is forced in this manner. Inclusion of Ekman drag (μ=0) along with molecular viscosity permits a dual cascade, but is incompatible with the log-modified −3 power law for the energy spectrum in the enstrophy-cascading inertial range. In order to achieve the latter, it is necessary to invoke an inverse viscosity (μ<0). These constraints on permissible power laws apply for any spectrally localized forcing, not just for monoscale-like forcing.

Timing and localization of ionospheric signatures associated with substorm expansion phase onset

In this paper, we present case studies of the optical and magnetic signatures of the characteristics of the first minute of substorm expansion phase onset observed in the ionosphere. We find that for two isolated substorms, the onset of magnetic pulsations in the 24–96 s period wavelet band are colocated in time and space with the formation and development of small-scale optical undulations along the most equatorward preexisting auroral arc prior to auroral breakup. These undulations undergo an inverse spatial cascade into vortices prior to the release of the westward traveling surge. We also present a case study of a multiple activation substorm, whereby discrete onsets of ULF wave power above a predetermined quiet time threshold are shown to be associated with specific optical intensifications and brightenings. Moreover, in the multiple activation substorm event, we show that neither the formation of the small-scale undulations nor the formation of similar structures along a north–south aligned arc is sufficient to produce auroral breakup associated with expansion phase onset. It is only ∼10 min after these two disparate activation regions initiate that auroral breakup and the subsequent formation of a westward traveling surge occur. We discuss the implications of these results in terms of the triggering mechanisms likely to be occurring during these specific events.

Rossby waves and two-dimensional turbulence in a large-scale zonal jet

The theory of homogeneous barotropic beta-plane turbulence is here extended to include effects arising from spatial inhomogeneity in the form of a zonal shear flow. Attention is restricted to the geophysically important case of zonal flows that are barotropically stable and are of larger scale than the resulting transient eddy field. Because of the presumed scale separation, the disturbance enstrophy is approximately conserved in a fully nonlinear sense, and the (nonlinear) wave-mean-flow interaction may be characterized as a shear-induced spectral transfer of disturbance enstrophy along lines of constant zonal wavenumber k. In this transfer the disturbance energy is generally not conserved. The nonlinear interactions between different disturbance components are turbulent for scales smaller than the inverse of Rhines's cascade-arrest scale κβ[identical with] (β0/2urms)½ and in this regime their leading-order effect may be characterized as a tendency to spread the enstrophy (and energy) along contours of constant total wavenumber κ [identical with] (k2 + l2)½. Insofar as this process of turbulent isotropization involves spectral transfer of disturbance enstrophy across lines of constant zonal wavenumber k, it can be readily distinguished from the shear-induced transfer which proceeds along them. However, an analysis in terms of total wavenumber K alone, which would be justified if the flow were homogeneous, would tend to mask the differences. The foregoing theoretical ideas are tested by performing direct numerical simulation experiments. It is found that the picture of classical beta-plane turbulence is altered, through the effect of the large-scale zonal flow, in the following ways: (i) while the turbulence is still confined to K Kβ, the disturbance field penetrates to the largest scales of motion; (ii) the larger disturbance scales K < Kβ exhibit a tendency to meridional rather than zonal anisotropy, namely towards v2 > u2 rather than vice versa; (iii) the initial spectral transfer rate away from an isotropic intermediate-scale source is significantly enhanced by the shear-induced transfer associated with straining by the zonal flow. This last effect occurs even when the large-scale shear appears weak to the energy-containing eddies, in the sense that dU/dy [double less-than sign] κ for typical eddy length and velocity scales.