Capital flows to Latin America: third quarter 2004

Includes bibliography

Capital flows to Latin America: first quarter 2006

Includes bibliography

Capital flows to Latin America: quarterly developments

Includes bibliography

Capital flows to Latin America: recent developments

Includes bibliography

Capital flows to Latin America: recent developments

Includes bibliography

Governança corporativa em empresas de capital aberto: uma contribuição da ciência da informação para análise da informação estratégica

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

La USAID: paz, desarrollo y capital

Pós-graduação em Relações Internacionais (UNESP - UNICAMP - PUC-SP) - FFC

Capital flows to Latin America: recent developments

The external environment has deteriorated sharply as a result of the spiraling financial turmoil, and has led to a weakening in commodity prices and fears of a worldwide recession. Latin America and the Caribbean's fastest expansion in 40 years may be threatened as the global credit crunch makes financing scarce and squeezes demand for the region's commodities. This time around the region is better positioned to weather the crisis than in the past, given improvements in macroeconomic and financial policies as well as a reduced net dependency on external capital inflows. However, Latin American markets are feeling the effects of the crisis through a slowdown in capital inflows, large declines in stock price indexes, significant currency adjustments and an increase in debt spreads. Volatility has soared, with the closely watched Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index moving to an all-time high of 70.33 on October 17, indicating that fear (rather than greed) has been ruling the markets.After reaching record lows in May 2007, emerging markets bond spreads are now above pre-Asian crisis levels. The JPMorgan EMBI+ Latin American composite widened by 146 basis points in the third quarter, with spreads reaching 448 basis points at the end of September. Spreads have widened sharply in recent weeks as foreign investors cut back regional exposure for the safety of U.S. Treasuries. The ongoing lack of liquidity and subsequent liquidation of assets is leading to a collapse in asset prices and a sharp widening in spreads. Daily spreads in October have risen to levels not seen since December 2002, making it much more difficult for governments that need financing to get it. Risk premiums for Latin corporates and sovereigns have risen substantially, but have remained well below U.S. junk (high-yield) bonds. Latin corporates are facing a steep rise in foreign exchange borrowing costs (although less than firms in other emerging markets), which raises concerns that refinancing risks will climb.So far, emerging markets vulnerabilities have been more focused on corporates, as sovereigns have improved public debt dynamics and countries' financing needs are under control. Market performance has been driven by the rapid deterioration of emerging markets bank and corporate market, as well as ongoing losses in emerging markets equities. From January to September 2008, the Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) Latin American Index lost almost 28%, while the Emerging Markets Index lost 37% and the G-7 Index lost 24%. While in 2007 the Latin America component gained 47%, almost nine times as much as the MSCI-G7 index for developed markets, since mid-September 2008 stocks in Latin America have been doing worse than stocks in developed countries, as concerns about access to credit and the adverse impact of sharp falls in commodity prices and in local currencies contribute to increased risk aversion and to outflows of capital. Many governments in the region have used revenue from the commodity boom to pay down debt and build reserves. Now, facing a global financial crisis and the threat of recession in developed countries, the biggest question for Latin America is how long and deep this cyclical downturn will be, and how much it is going to reduce commodity prices. Prices for commodities such as soy, gold, copper and oil, which helped fund the region's boom, have fallen 28% since their July 2 high, according to the RJ/CRB Commodity Price Index. According to Morgan Stanley (in a September 29 report), should prices return to their 10-year average, Latin America's balanced budgets would quickly revert to a deficit of 4.1% of GDP. As risk aversion increases, investors are rapidly pulling out massive amounts of money, creating problems for local markets and banks. There is an ongoing shortage of dollars (as investors liquidate assets in Latin American markets), and as currencies depreciate, inflation concerns increase despite the global slowdown. In Brazil and Mexico, central banks deployed billions of dollars of reserves to stem steep currency declines, as companies in these countries, believing their local currencies would continue to strengthen against the U.S. dollar, took debts in dollars. Some companies also made bets using currency derivatives that have led to losses in the billions of dollars. Dramatic currency swings have caused heavy losses for many companies, from Mexico's cement giant Cemex SAB to the Brazilian conglomerate Grupo Votorantim. Mexico's third-largest retailer, Controladora Comercial Mexicana, declared bankruptcy recently after reporting huge losses related to exchange rate bets. As concerns about corporate exposure to dollar-denominated derivatives increases, yields on bonds issued by many of Brazil's and Mexico's leading companies have started to rise, sharply raising the cost of issuing new debt. Latin American external debt issuance came to a halt in the third quarter of 2008, totaling only US$ 690 million. The cost of obtaining loans for capital expenditures, M&A and debt refinancing is also rising substantially for Latin American corporates amid contagion from the U.S. financial crisis. According to bankers, a protracted trend of shortening tenors and widening spreads has intensified in the past few weeks, indicating that bank lending is quickly following the way of bonds and equity. Finally, money transfers from Latin American migrants are expected to decline for the first time this decade, as a result of economic downturns in the U.S. and Spain, inflation and a weaker dollar. The Mexican Central Bank announced that money transfers from Mexicans living in the U.S. dropped a record 12.2% in August. In 2008, migrants from the region will send some 1.7% less in remittances year-on-year when adjusted for inflation, according to the IADB, compounding the adverse effects of the deepening financial turmoil.

Risco de crédito: uma abordagem utilizando análise discriminante, regressão logística e redes neurais artificiais

Considering the relevance of researches concerning credit risk, model diversity and the existent indicators, this thesis aimed at verifying if the Fleuriet Model contributes in discriminating Brazilian open capital companies in the analysis of credit concession. We specifically intended to i) identify the economic-financial indicators used in credit risk models; ii) identify which economic-financial indicators best discriminate companies in the analysis of credit concession; iii) assess which techniques used (discriminant analysis, logistic regression and neural networks) present the best accuracy to predict company bankruptcy. To do this, the theoretical background approached the concepts of financial analysis, which introduced themes relative to the company evaluation process; considerations on credit, risk and analysis; Fleuriet Model and its indicators, and, finally, presented the techniques for credit analysis based on discriminant analysis, logistic regression and artificial neural networks. Methodologically, the research was defined as quantitative, regarding its nature, and explanatory, regarding its type. It was developed using data derived from bibliographic and document analysis. The financial demonstrations were collected by means of the Economática ® and the BM$FBOVESPA website. The sample was comprised of 121 companies, being those 70 solvents and 51 insolvents from various sectors. In the analyses, we used 22 indicators of the Traditional Model and 13 of the Fleuriet Model, totalizing 35 indicators. The economic-financial indicators which were a part of, at least, one of the three final models were: X1 (Working Capital over Assets), X3 (NCG over Assets), X4 (NCG over Net Revenue), X8 (Type of Financial Structure), X9 (Net Thermometer), X16 (Net Equity divided by the total demandable), X17 (Asset Turnover), X20 (Net Equity Profitability), X25 (Net Margin), X28 (Debt Composition) and X31 (Net Equity over Asset). The final models presented setting values of: 90.9% (discriminant analysis); 90.9% (logistic regression) and 97.8% (neural networks). The modeling in neural networks presented higher accuracy, which was confirmed by the ROC curve. In conclusion, the indicators of the Fleuriet Model presented relevant results for the research of credit risk, especially if modeled by neural networks.

Development of a modelling framework in support of an assessment of the economic and social impacts of climate change in the Caribbean: the ECLAC – CIAM Model

The Caribbean region remains highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. In order to assess the social and economic consequences of climate change for the region, the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean( ECLAC) has developed a model for this purpose. The model is referred to as the Climate Impact Assessment Model (ECLAC-CIAM) and is a tool that can simultaneously assess multiple sectoral climate impacts specific to the Caribbean as a whole and for individual countries. To achieve this goal, an Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) with a Computable General Equilibrium Core was developed comprising of three modules to be executed sequentially. The first of these modules defines the type and magnitude of economic shocks on the basis of a climate change scenario, the second module is a global Computable General Equilibrium model with a special regional and industrial classification and the third module processes the output of the CGE model to get more disaggregated results. The model has the potential to produce several economic estimates but the current default results include percentage change in real national income for individual Caribbean states which provides a simple measure of welfare impacts. With some modifications, the model can also be used to consider the effects of single sectoral shocks such as (Land, Labour, Capital and Tourism) on the percentage change in real national income. Ultimately, the model is envisioned as an evolving tool for assessing the impact of climate change in the Caribbean and as a guide to policy responses with respect to adaptation strategies.

Trabalho flexível e capital social: um estudo de caso sobre a ação dos agentes comunitários de saúde em Araraquara

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Capital Flows to Latin America and the Caribbean. Q1 2016

Market sentiment and portfolio flows to Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) ended the first quarter of 2016 on a more optimistic note than it started. There was a large rally in LAC assets in March, but its intensity was also a function of the very challenging start of the year, when credit and equity investors were deeply concerned about the risk of further slowdown in China’s GDP and the possibility of further devaluation.

O público e o privado nas universidades públicas: análise da fundação de apoio privada FADESP no gerenciamento dos recursos para a UFPA (2004 a 2008)

Este estudo tem como objetivo central analisar a parceria entre o público e o privado, estabelecida entre as universidades federais e as fundações de apoio privadas (FAP), no gerenciamento de recursos para a instituição apoiada, tendo como caso a relação entre a Universidade Federal do Pará (UFPA) e a Fundação de Amparo e Desenvolvimento da Pesquisa (FADESP), no período de 2004 a 2008, analisadas a partir dos relatórios de prestação de contas e documentos institucionais. Para compreender a realidade como resultado de processos históricos das relações humanas, partiu-se da premissa de que o esgotamento do modelo de gestão das universidades públicas no Brasil, financiadas exclusivamente com recursos do erário, acentuou-se a partir da década de 1990 com a Reforma do Estado no governo de Fernando Henrique Cardoso. Com a materialização das políticas de diminuição de recursos públicos introduziu a perspectiva de busca de vias alternativas de receitas para uma aparente manutenção das instituições públicas por entidades privadas como as FAP, políticas continuadas pelo governo de Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. O estudo apontou que, apesar da introdução da lógica de mercado e da naturalização da parceria com o privado no interior das Instituições Federais de Ensino Superior (IFES), a relação entre público e privado é sustentada, essencialmente, com recursos públicos. Isso se reflete na expansão no número de FAP credenciadas junto às universidades federais, multiplicando-se em mais de 154% nos últimos 10 anos. Das 55 universidades públicas federais do Brasil, apenas cinco não possuem FAP credenciada, e as restantes apresentam 85 FAP gerenciando seus recursos. No caso da FADESP, no gerenciamento de recursos para a UFPA, abstraiu-se que: a) A FADESP atua há mais de 30 anos no interior da universidade e, embora seus relatórios de prestação de conta sejam apresentados de forma pública no conselho superior, isso se deu somente a partir de 2004 pela exigência do Decreto n° 5.204; b) Há ausência de observância da prestação de contas anual estabelecida pelo marco regulatório das FAP e o regimento da UFPA; c) Os Relatórios de Atividades são organizados diferentemente a cada ano, dificultando a compreensão dos mesmos por parte dos conselheiros da UFPA; d) A fundação apresenta no período investigado (2004-2008) um crescimento de 532,1% no volume de recursos gerenciados; e) Do total de recursos gerenciados pela fundação, em 2008, 94% representam recursos captados pela UFPA, especialmente por professores-pesquisadores, evidenciando uma nova identidade para a universidade pública, como produtora de conhecimento para valorização do capital, na qual a FAP é intermediadora dos processos administrativo-financeiros; t) O apoio real prestado pela fundação à UFPA, através da criação do Programa de Apoio (PROAP), é irrisório considerando o superávit da fundação que, em 2008, ultrapassou um milhão de reais; g) A FADESP atua com entendimento equivocado de Desenvolvimento Institucional, associando este como uma forma de prestação de serviço a outras instituições públicas e privadas, o que desvirtua a observância do marco regulatório das FAP e, por conseguinte, a missão institucional da UFPA.

Trabalho e capital na Amazônia Oriental: movimento operário versus reestruturação produtiva no Complexo Albrás-Alunorte: 1990 – 2005

A presente dissertação aborda a reestruturação produtiva nas fábricas da ALBRÁS e da ALUNORTE, localizadas no município de Barcarena/PA, e como o movimento operário se contrapôs a este processo no período de 1990-2005. Através de um estudo da crise crônica da economia capitalista mundial, agravada pelos dois choques do petróleo, tenta-se explicar como foi possível a instalação na Amazônia Oriental de duas fábricas modernas, com um contingente operário altamente concentrado. Destaca-se o quanto o papel do Estado é fundamental para que esse processo ocorra. Também analisamos como a partir do fenômeno da “globalização” – que nada mais é do que uma fase superior do imperialismo –, e dos novos processos de organização do trabalho – principalmente o modelo toyotista –, o movimento operário e suas organizações foram colocados à prova por conta da flexibilização do trabalho, da precarização, da terceirização e subcontratação, que dificultaram na década de 90 as greves e ações da classe trabalhadora no Brasil e no mundo. Baseado em materiais bibliográficos, folhetos e em entrevistas com operários e dirigentes sindicais, o trabalho evidencia que a luta contra a reestruturação produtiva na ALBRAS foi mais intensa, inclusive com o método da greve, do que na ALUNORTE, porque a ALBRAS tinha dez anos à frente da ALUNORTE e foi o primeiro laboratório da CVRD na cidade de Barcarena. Contraditoriamente, foi na ALBRAS onde aconteceu a maioria das demissões no período estudado, antes e depois da privatização da CVRD. A dissertação procura mostrar o papel do Sindicato dos Metalúrgicos e dos Químicos nesse processo de luta contra a reestruturação produtiva nas fábricas da ALBRAS e da ALUNORTE.

Análise organizacional do partido da social democracia brasileira no estado de São Paulo (1988-2006): a estrutura relacional e o capital político

Pós-graduação em Ciências Sociais - FCLAR