Forecasting Climate Impacts on Future Production of Commercially Exploited Fish and Shellfish

Foreword [pdf, < 0.1 MB] Acknowledgements PHASE 1 [pdf, 0.2 MB] Summary of the PICES/NPRB Workshop on Forecasting Climate Impacts on Future Production of Commercially Exploited Fish and Shellfish (July 19–20, 2007, Seattle, U.S.A.) Background Links to Other Programs Workshop Format Session I. Status of climate change scenarios in the PICES region Session II. What are the expected impacts of climate change on regional oceanography and what are some scenarios for these drivers for the next 10 years? Session III. Recruitment forecasting Session IV. What models are out there? How is climate linked to the model? Session V. Assumptions regarding future fishing scenarios and enhancement activities Session VI Where do we go from here? References Appendix 1.1 List of Participants PHASE 2 [pdf, 0.7 MB] Summary of the PICES/NPRB Workshop on Forecasting Climate Impacts on Future Production of Commercially Exploited Fish and Shellfish (October 30, 2007, Victoria, Canada) Background Workshop Agenda Forecast Feasibility Format of Information Modeling Approaches Coupled bio-physical models Stock assessment projection models Comparative approaches Similarities in Data Requests Opportunities for Coordination with Other PICES Groups and International Efforts BACKGROUND REPORTS PREPARED FOR THE PHASE 2 WORKSHOP Northern California Current (U.S.) groundfish production by Melissa Haltuch Changes in sablefish (Anoplopoma fimbria) recruitment in relation to oceanographic conditions by Michael J. Schirripa Northern California Current (British Columbia) Pacific cod (Gadus macrocephalus) production by Caihong Fu and Richard Beamish Northern California Current (British Columbia) sablefish (Anoplopoma fimbria) production by Richard Beamish Northern California Current (British Columbia) pink (Oncorhynchus gorbuscha) and chum (O. keta) salmon production by Richard Beamish Northern California Current (British Columbia) ocean shrimp (Pandalus jordani) production by Caihong Fu Alaska salmon production by Anne Hollowed U.S. walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma) production in the eastern Bering Sea and Gulf of Alaska by Kevin Bailey and Anne Hollowed U.S. groundfish production in the eastern Bering Sea by Tom Wilderbuer U.S. crab production in the eastern Bering Sea by Gordon H. Kruse Forecasting Japanese commercially exploited species by Shin-ichi Ito, Kazuaki Tadokoro and Yasuhiro Yamanka Russian fish production in the Japan/East Sea by Yury Zuenko, Vladimir Nuzhdin and Natalia Dolganova Chum salmon (Oncorhynchus keta) production in Korea by Sukyung Kang, Suam Kim and Hyunju Seo Jack mackerel (Trachurus japonicus) production in Korea by Jae Bong Lee and Chang-Ik Zhang Chub mackerel (Scomber japonicus) production in Korea by Jae Bong Lee, Sukyung Kang, Suam Kim, Chang-Ik Zhang and Jin Yeong Kim References Appendix 2.1 List of Participants PHASE 3 [pdf, < 0.1 MB] Summary of the PICES Workshop on Linking Global Climate Model Output to (a) Trends in Commercial Species Productivity and (b) Changes in Broader Biological Communities in the World’s Oceans (May 18, 2008, Gijón, Spain) Appendix 3.1 List of Participants Appendix 3.2 Workshop Agenda (Document contains 101 pages)

Environment and resources of seamounts in the North Pacific: Proceedings of a workshop, March 21-23, 1984, Shimizu, Japan

The trawl fishery for pelagic annorhead, Pseuaopentaceros wheeleri(fonnerly referred to as Pentaceros richardsoni), and alfonsin, Beryx splendens, over the central North Pacific seamounts has a relatively short history. Before 1967, fishery scientists were generally unaware of the resources on seamounts; however, the discovery of commercial concentrations of pelagic armorhead on seamounts in the southern Emperor Seamounts by a Russian commercial trawler in November 1967 led to almost immediate exploitation of the species by the Soviets. Unconfinned reports indicated that the schools of pelagic annorhead on the seamounts averaged 30 m thick and catches averaged from 3 to 50 metric tons on 10-20 min hauls (Sakiura 1972). Japanese trawlers entered the fishery in 1969. To assist in the development of this tishery, Japanese research vessels conducted extensive surveys in 1972 on the distribution and potential for development ofthe pelagic armorhead and alfonsin resources. The results of their surveys to the central North Pacific and mid-Pacific seamounts showed that many had summits that were too deep for trawling. Those found suitable were concentrated in the southern Emperor-northern Hawaiian Ridge. (PDF file contains 113 pages.)

Two-phase flow and pool boiling heat transfer in microgravity

Researches on two-phase flow and pool boiling heat transfer in microgravity, which included groundbased tests, flight experiments, and theoretical analyses, were conducted in the National Microgravity Laboratory/CAS. A semi-theoretical Weber number model was proposed to predict the slug-to-annular flow transition of two-phase gas–liquid flows in microgravity, while the influence of the initial bubble size on the bubble-to-slug flow transition was investigated numerically using the Monte Carlo method. Two-phase flow pattern maps in microgravity were obtained in the experiments both aboard the Russian space station Mir and aboard IL-76 reduced gravity airplane. Mini-scale modeling was also used to simulate the behavior of microgravity two-phase flow on the ground. Pressure drops of two-phase flow in microgravity were also measured experimentally and correlated successfully based on its characteristics. Two space experiments on pool boiling phenomena in microgravity were performed aboard the Chinese recoverable satellites. Steady pool boiling of R113 on a thin wire with a temperature-controlled heating method was studied aboard RS-22, while quasi-steady pool boiling of FC-72 on a plate was studied aboard SJ-8. Ground-based experiments were also performed both in normal gravity and in short-term microgravity in the drop tower Beijing. Only slight enhancement of heat transfer was observed in the wire case, while enhancement in low heat flux and deterioration in high heat flux were observed in the plate case. Lateral motions of vapor bubbles were observed before their departure in microgravity. The relationship between bubble behavior and heat transfer on plate was analyzed. A semi-theoretical model was also proposed for predicting the bubble departure diameter during pool boiling on wires. The results obtained here are intended to become a powerful aid for further investigation in the present discipline and development of two-phase systems for space applications.

A GEOPASS-NERC project on diatom deposition and sediment accumulation in Lake Baikal, Siberia

This new project is multidisciplinary, with physical and chemical palaeolimnological aspects mainly the responsibility of Swiss and Russian scientists, and the biological limnology and palaeolimnology components mainly undertaken by the British and Russian groups. The overall project aim is to improve palaeoclimate reconstructions using sedimentary diatoms by promoting better understanding of diatom ecology and sediment-forming processes. The initial work plan is divided into four main parts: To understand diatom phytoplankton ecology more fully, to assess taphonomic changes associated with the transformation of phytoplankton diatom communities into sediment assemblages, to demonstrate sediment core integrity and representativity and to calibrate modern diatom assemblages against contemporary climate records. The preliminary results from the interrelated studies of phytoplankton, sediment traps and sediment cores used in GEOPASS-NERC, demonstrate the complexity of links between the living and fossil systems. Furthermore, the nature of recent sedimentation in Lake Baikal is spatially variable and incompletely known. This poses a major challenge to palaeolimnological interpretation. Turbidite deposits and differential preservation of microfossils, combined with inadequate knowledge of the modern ecology of endemic diatoms, all conspire to obfuscate the sedimentary record of environmental change.

Determination of population structure and stock composition of chum salmon (Oncorhynchus keta) in Russia determined with microsatellites

Variation at 14 microsatellite loci was examined in 34 chum salmon (Oncorhynchus keta) populations from Russia and evaluated for its use in the determination of population structure and stock composition in simulated mixed-stock fishery samples. The genetic differentiation index (Fst) over all populations and loci was 0.017, and individual locus values ranged from 0.003 to 0.054. Regional population structure was observed, and populations from Primorye, Sakhalin Island, and northeast Russia were the most distinct. Microsatellite variation provided evidence of a more fine-scale population structure than those that had previously been demonstrated with other genetic-based markers. Analysis of simulated mixed-stock samples indicated that accurate and precise regional estimates of stock composition were produced when the microsatellites were used to estimate stock compositions. Microsatellites can be used to determine stock composition in geographically separate Russian coastal chum salmon fisheries and provide a greater resolution of stock composition and population structure than that previously provided with other techniques.

Occurrence and distribution of fish species off Yemen (Gulf of Aden and Arabian Sea)

The species list is drawn from an analysis of catches taken by Sumalian and Russian trawlers in the Gulf of Aden and the Arabian Sea between 1985 and 1990. The southern coastline of the Republic of Yemen has been divided into 7 areas, including waters around Socotra Island. The average depth of each trawl was recorded in 50 m increments. Non-appearance of the species in the area does not mean that the species do not occur in that area or depth, merely that it was not recorded in any of the samples analyzed. Specimens that could not be identified to species level have been excluded. A total of 195 species from 75 families was recorded and is summarized. Most of the identification of species was from FAO species identification literature. Confirmation of some species and usage of common names is from ICLARM's FishBase and Al Sedfy, et al. (1982).

Soviet Illegal Whaling: The Devil and the Details

In 1948, the U.S.S.R. began a global campaign of illegal whaling that lasted for three decades and, together with the poorly managed “legal” whaling of other nations, seriously depleted whale populations. Although the general story of this whaling has been told and the catch record largely corrected for the Southern Hemisphere, major gaps remain in the North Pacific. Furthermore, little attention has been paid to the details of this system or its economic context. Using interviews with former Soviet whalers and biologists as well as previously unavailable reports and other material in Russian, our objective is to describe how the Soviet whaling industry was structured and how it worked, from the largest scale of state industrial planning down to the daily details of the ways in which whales were caught and processed, and how data sent to the Bureau of International Whaling Statistics were falsified. Soviet whaling began with the factory ship Aleut in 1933, but by 1963 the industry had a truly global reach, with seven factory fleets (some very large). Catches were driven by a state planning system that set annual production targets. The system gave bonuses and honors only when these were met or exceeded, and it frequently increased the following year’s targets to match the previous year’s production; scientific estimates of the sustainability of the resource were largely ignored. Inevitably, this system led to whale populations being rapidly reduced. Furthermore, productivity was measured in gross output (weights of whales caught), regardless of whether carcasses were sound or rotten, or whether much of the animal was unutilized. Whaling fleets employed numerous people, including women (in one case as the captain of a catcher boat). Because of relatively high salaries and the potential for bonuses, positions in the whaling industry were much sought-after. Catching and processing of whales was highly mechanized and became increasingly efficient as the industry gained more experience. In a single day, the largest factory ships could process up to 200 small sperm whales, Physeter macrocephalus; 100 humpback whales, Megaptera novaeangliae; or 30–35 pygmy blue whales, Balaenoptera musculus brevicauda. However, processing of many animals involved nothing more than stripping the carcass of blubber and then discarding the rest. Until 1952, the main product was whale oil; only later was baleen whale meat regularly utilized. Falsified data on catches were routinely submitted to the Bureau of International Whaling Statistics, but the true catch and biological data were preserved for research and administrative purposes. National inspectors were present at most times, but, with occasional exceptions, they worked primarily to assist fulfillment of plan targets and routinely ignored the illegal nature of many catches. In all, during 40 years of whaling in the Antarctic, the U.S.S.R. reported 185,778 whales taken but at least 338,336 were actually killed. Data for the North Pacific are currently incomplete, but from provisional data we estimate that at least 30,000 whales were killed illegally in this ocean. Overall, we judge that, worldwide, the U.S.S.R. killed approximately 180,000 whales illegally and caused a number of population crashes. Finally, we note that Soviet illegal catches continued after 1972 despite the presence of international observers on factory fleets.

New (1R,4R)-2-arylidene-p-menthan-3-ones with a bridging ester group in the arylidene fragment. Synthesis and behavior in liquid-crystalline systems

(1R,4R)-2-(4-Hydroxybenzylidene)- and (1R,4R)-2-(4′-hydroxybiphenyl- 4-yl)methylene-p-menthan-3-ones were synthesized by condensation of (-)-menthone with O-tetrahydropyran-2-yl derivatives of 4-hydroxybenzaldehyde and 4′-hydroxy-4-formylbiphenyl, respectively, in a DMSO - base medium followed by the removal of the protective group. The reactions of these hydroxy derivatives with 4-alkylbenzoic, 4-alkyloxybenzoic, trans-4-alkylcyclohexane-4- carboxylic, and 4′-alkylbiphenyl-4-carboxylic acids afforded three series of new chiral esters. Compounds containing the arylidene moiety with three benzene rings were found to exhibit liquid-crystalline properties. The characteristic features of these compounds are discussed based on the results of studies by polarizing microscopy, differential scanning calorimetry, and small-angle X-ray scattering. It was found that the mesomorphic compounds under study can form a smectic A mesophase, twist grain boundary mesophases (TGBA), and blue phases in a wide temperature range. Upon dissolution of certain of chiral compounds in 4′-cyano-4-pentylbiphenyl, a rather high twisting power and the thermal stabilizing effect on mesophases were observed.

Assessment of cattle genetic introgression into domestic yak populations using mitochondrial and microsatellite DNA markers

Hybridization between yak Poephagus grunniens and taurine Bos taurus or indicine B. indicus cattle has been widely practiced throughout the yak geographical range, and gene flow is expected to have occurred between these species. To assess the impact of cattle admixture on domestic yak, we examined 1076 domestic yak from 29 populations collected in China, Bhutan, Nepal, India, Pakistan, Kyrgyzstan, Mongolia and Russia using mitochondrial DNA and 17 autosomal microsatellite loci. A cattle diagnostic marker-based analysis reveals cattle-specific mtDNA and/or autosomal microsatellite allele introgression in 127 yak individuals from 22 populations. The mean level of cattle admixture across the populations, calculated using allelic information at 17 autosomal microsatellite loci, remains relatively low (mY(cattle) = 2.66 +/- 0.53% and Q(cattle) = 0.69 +/- 2.58%), although it varies a lot across populations as well as among individuals within population. Although the level of cattle admixture shows a clear geographical structure, with higher levels of admixture in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau and Mongolian and Russian regions, and lower levels in the Himalayan and Pamir Plateau region, our results indicate that the level of cattle admixture is not significantly correlated with the altitude across geographical regions as well as within geographical region. Although yak-cattle hybridization is primarily driven to produce F-1 hybrids, our results show that the subsequent gene flow between yak and cattle took place and has affected contemporary genetic make-up of domestic yak. To protect yak genetic integrity, hybridization between yak and cattle should be tightly controlled.