Forecasting day-ahead electricity load using a multiple equation time series approach

The quality of short-term electricity load forecasting is crucial to the operation and trading activities of market participants in an electricity market. In this paper, it is shown that a multiple equation time-series model, which is estimated by repeated application of ordinary least squares, has the potential to match or even outperform more complex nonlinear and nonparametric forecasting models. The key ingredient of the success of this simple model is the effective use of lagged information by allowing for interaction between seasonal patterns and intra-day dependencies. Although the model is built using data for the Queensland region of Australia, the method is completely generic and applicable to any load forecasting problem. The model’s forecasting ability is assessed by means of the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). For day-ahead forecast, the MAPE returned by the model over a period of 11 years is an impressive 1.36%. The forecast accuracy of the model is compared with a number of benchmarks including three popular alternatives and one industrial standard reported by the Australia Energy Market Operator (AEMO). The performance of the model developed in this paper is superior to all benchmarks and outperforms the AEMO forecasts by about a third in terms of the MAPE criterion.

Student perception of a new integrated anatomy practical program: Does students' prior learning make a difference?

While there is evidence that science and non-science background students display small differences in performance in basic and clinical sciences, early in a 4-year, graduate entry medical program, this lessens with time. With respect to anatomy knowledge, there are no comparable data as to the impact previous anatomy experience has on the student perception of the anatomy practical learning environment. A study survey was designed to evaluate student perception of the anatomy practical program and its impact on student learning, for the initial cohort of a new medical school. The survey comprised 19 statements requiring a response using a 5-point Likert scale, in addition to a free text opportunity to provide opinion of the perceived educational value of the anatomy practical program. The response rate for a total cohort of 82 students was 89%. The anatomy practical program was highly valued by the students in aiding their learning of anatomy, as indicated by the high mean scores for all statements (range: 4.04-4.7). There was a significant difference between the students who had and had not studied a science course prior to entering medicine, with respect to statements that addressed aspects of the course related to its structure, organization, variety of resources, linkage to problem-based learning cases, and fairness of assessment. Nonscience students were more positive compared to those who had studied science before (P levels ranging from 0.004 to 0.035). Students less experienced in anatomy were more challenged in prioritizing core curricular knowledge. © 2011 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Design of a high sensitivity FET integrated MEMS microphone

FET based MEMS microphones comprise of a flexible diaphragm that works as the moving gate of the transistor. The integrated electromechanical transducer can be made more sensitive to external sound pressure either by increasing the mechanical or the electrical sensitivities. We propose a method of increasing the overall sensitivity of the microphone by increasing its electrical sensitivity. The proposed microphone uses the transistor biased in the sub-threshold region where the drain current depends exponentially on the difference between the gate-to-source voltage and the threshold voltage. The device is made more sensitive without adding any complexity in the mechanical design of the diaphragm.

The Rocky Road of Social Sustainability : The Impact of Integrated Biodiversity Conservation and Development on the Local Realities in Ranomafana National Park, Madagascar

The objective of this study is to examine the social impacts of the integrated conservation and development project (ICDP) aimed at biodiversity conservation and local socio-economic development in the Ranomafana National Park (RNP), Madagascar. Furthermore, the study explores social sustainability and justice of the ICDP in Ranomafana. This ethnographically informed impact study uses of various field methods. The research material used consists of observation, interviews (key-person and focus group), school children's writings, official statistics and project documents. Fieldwork was conducted in three phases in 2001, 2002 and 2004 in twelve villages around the park, as well as in neighbouring areas of Ranomafana. However, four of those twelve villages were chosen for closer study. This study consists of five independent articles and a concluding chapter. Social impacts were studied through reproductive health indicators as well as a life security approach. Equity and distribution of benefits and drawbacks of ICDP were analysed and the actors related to the conservation in Ranomafana were identified. The children and adolescents' environmental views were also examined. The reproductive health indicators studied showed a poor state of reproductive health in the park area. Moreover, the existing social capital in the villages seemed to be fragmented due to economic difficulties that were partly caused by the conservation regulations. The ICDP in Ranomafana did not pay attention to the heterogeneity of the affected communities even though the local beneficiaries of the ICDP varied according to their ethnicity, living place, wealth, social position and gender. In addition, various conservation actors (local people in various groups, local authorities, tourist business owners, conservation NGOs and scientists) contest their interests over the forest, conservation and its related activities. This study corroborates the same type of evidence and conclusions discussed in other similar cases elsewhere: so called social conservation programmes still cannot meet the needs of the people living near the protected areas; on the contrary, they even have a reverse impact on the people's lives. A fundamental misunderstood assumption in the conservation process in Ranomafana was to consider the local people as a problem for biodiversity conservation. Major reasons for the failure of the ICDP in Ranomafana include a lack of local institutions that would have been able to communicate as equals with the conservation NGOs as well as to transfer the tradition of the authoritarian governance in conservation management together with the over-appreciation of scientific biodiversity, and lack of will to understand the local people's rights to use the forest for their livelihoods.

Water in Action : Encounters among 2- to 3-Year-Old Children, Adults, and Water in Day Care

In line with cultural psychology and developmental theory, a single case approach is applied to construct knowledge on how children s interaction emerge interlinked to historical, social, cultural, and material context. The study focuses on the negotiation of constraints and meaning construction among 2-to 3-year-old children, a preschool teacher, and the researcher in settings with water. Water as an element offers a special case of cultural canalization: adults selectively monitor and guide children s access to it. The work follows the socio-cultural tradition in psychology, particularly the co-constructivist theory of human development and the Network of Meanings perspective developed at the University of São Paulo. Valsiner s concepts of Zone of Free Movement and Zone of Promoted Action are applied together with studies where interactions are seen as spaces of construction where negotiation of constraints for actions, emotions, and conceptions occur. The corpus was derived at a Finnish municipal day care centre. During a seven months period, children s actions were video recorded in small groups twice a month. The teacher and the researcher were present. Four sessions with two children were chosen for qualitative microanalysis; the analysis also addressed the transformations during the months covered by the study. Moreover, the data derivation was analyzed reflectively. The narrowed down arenas for actions were continuously negotiated among the participants both nonverbally and verbally. The adults expectations and intentions were materialized in the arrangements of the setting canalizing the possibilities for actions. Children s co-regulated actions emerged in relation to the adults presence, re-structuring attempts, and the constraints of the setting. Children co-constructed novel movements and meanings in relation to the initiatives and objects offered. Gestures, postures, and verbalizations emerged from the initially random movements and became constructed to have specific meanings and functions; meaning construction became abbreviated. The participants attempted to make sense of the ambiguous (explicit and implicit) intentions and fuzzy boundaries of promoted and possible actions: individualized yet overlapping features were continuously negotiated by all the participants. Throughout the months, children s actions increasingly corresponded adults (re-defined) conceptions of water researchers as an emerging group culture. Water became an instrument and a context for co-regulations. The study contributes to discussions on children as participants in cultural canalization and emphasizes the need for analysis in early childhood education practices on the implicit and explicit constraint structures for actions.

Growing up in Affiliation with a Religious Community : A Case Study of Seventh-day Adventist Youth in Finland

This study investigates how the religious community as a socialization context affects the development of young people's religious identity and values, using Finnish Seventh-day Adventism as a context for the case study. The research problem is investigated through the following questions: (1) What aspects support the intergenerational transmission of values and tradition in religious home education? (2) What is the role of social capital and the social networks of the religious community in the religious socialization process? (3) How does the religious composition of the peer group at school (e.g., a denominational school in comparison to a mainstream school) affect these young people s social relations and choices and their religious identity (as challenged versus as reinforced by values at school)? And (4) How do the young people studied negotiate their religious values and religious membership in the diverse social contexts of the society at large? The mixed method study includes both quantitative and qualitative data sets (3 surveys: n=106 young adults, n=100 teenagers, n=55 parents; 2 sets of interviews: n=10 young adults and n=10 teenagers; and fieldwork data from youth summer camps). The results indicate that, in religious home education, the relationship between parents and children, the parental example of a personally meaningful way of life, and encouraging critical thinking in order for young people to make personalized value choices were important factors in socialization. Overall, positive experiences of the religion and the religious community were crucial in providing direction for later choices of values and affiliations. Education that was experienced as either too severe or too permissive was not regarded as a positive influence for accepting similar values and lifestyle choices to those of the parents. Furthermore, the religious community had an important influence on these young people s religious socialization in terms of the commitment to denominational values and lifestyle and in providing them with religious identity and rooting them in the social network of the denomination. The network of the religious community generated important social resources, or social capital, for both the youth and their families, involving both tangible and intangible benefits, and bridging and bonding effects. However, the study also illustrates the sometimes difficult negotiations the youth face in navigating between differentiation and belonging when there is a tension between the values of a minority group and the larger society, and one wants to and does belong to both. It also demonstrates the variety within both the majority and the minority communities in society, as well as the many different ways one can find a personally meaningful way of being an Adventist. In the light of the previous literature about socialization-in-context in an increasingly pluralistic society, the findings were examined at four levels: individual, family, community and societal. These were seen as both a nested structure and as constructing a funnel in which each broader level directs the influences that reach the narrower ones. The societal setting directs the position and operation of religious communities, families and individuals, and the influences that reach the developing children and young people are in many ways directed by societal, communal and family characteristics. These levels are by nature constantly changing, as well as being constructed of different parts, like the pieces of a jigsaw puzzle, each of which alters in significance: for some negotiations on values and memberships the parental influence may be greater, whereas for others the peer group influences are. Although agency does remain somewhat connected to others, the growing youth are gradually able to take more responsibility for their own choices and their agency plays a crucial role in the process of choosing values and group memberships. Keywords: youth, community, Adventism, socialization, values, identity negotiations

The RATAS-project, in the Light of 25 Years of Development Towards Computer-Integrated Construction

In smaller countries where the key players in construction IT development tend to know each other personally and where public R&D funding is concentrated to a few channels, IT roadmaps and strategies would seem to have a better chance of influencing development than in the bigger industrial countries. In this paper Finland and the RATAS-project is presented as a historical case illustrating such impact. RATAS was initiated as a construction IT roadmap project in 1985, involving many of the key organisations and companies active in construction sector development. Several of the individuals who took an active part in the project have played an important role in later developments both in Finland and on the international scene. The central result of RATAS was the identification of what is nowadays called Building Information Modelling (BIM) technology as the central issue in getting IT into efficient use in the construction sector. BIM, which earlier was referred to as building product modelling, has been a key ingredient in many roadmaps since and the subject of international standardisation efforts such as STEP and IAI/IFCs. The RATAS project can in hindsight be seen as a forerunner with an impact which also transcended national borders.

An Integrated Design Procedure for High Frequency AC Inductors for Inverters

Inductors are important energy storage elements that are used as filters in switching power converters. The operating efficiency of power inductors depend on the initial design choices and they remain as one of the most inefficient elements in a power converter. The focus of this paper is to explore the inductor design procedure from the point of efficiency and operating temperature. A modified form of the area product approach is used as starting point for the inductor design. The equations which estimate the power loss in core and copper winding are described. The surface temperature of the inductor is modelled using heat transfer equations for radiation and natural convection. All design assumptions are verified by actual experimental data and results show a good match with the analysis.

The expiration day effect of indexoptions and index futures on the underlying shares

This paper studies the effect of the expiration day of index options and futures on the trading volume, variance and price of the underlying shares. The data consists of all trades for the underlying shares in the FOX-index for expiration days during the period October 1995 to the mid of yer 1999. The main results seem to support the findings of Kan 2001, i.e. no manipulation on a larger scale. However, some indication of manipulation could be found if certain characteristics are favorable. These characteristics include: a) a large quantity of outstanding futures or at/in the money options contracts, b) there exists shares with high index weight but fairly low trading volume. Lastly, there is some indication that manipulation might be more popular towards the end of the examined time period.

The Day of the Week Effect and Option Pricing - A Study of the German Option Market

The use of different time units in option pricing may lead to inconsistent estimates of time decay and spurious jumps in implied volatilities. Different time units in the pricing model leads to different implied volatilities although the option price itself is the same.The chosen time unit should make it necessary to adjust the volatility parameter only when there are some fundamental reasons for it and not due to wrong specifications of the model. This paper examined the effects of option pricing using different time hypotheses and empirically investigated which time frame the option markets in Germany employ over weekdays. The paper specifically tries to get a picture of how the market prices options. The results seem to verify that the German market behaves in a fashion that deviates from the most traditional time units in option pricing, calendar and trading days. The study also showed that the implied volatility of Thursdays was somewhat higher and thus differed from the pattern of other days of the week. Using a GARCH model to further investigate the effect showed that although a traditional tests, like the analysis of variance, indicated a negative return for Thursday during the same period as the implied volatilities used, this was not supported using a GARCH model.

Time Scale Separated Nonlinear Partial Integrated Guidance and Control of Interceptors in the Terminal Phase

The paper proposes a time scale separated partial integrated guidance and control of an interceptor for engaging high speed targets in the terminal phase. In this two loop design, the outer loop is an optimal control formulation based on nonlinear model predictive spread control philosophies. It gives the commanded pitch and yaw rates whereas necessary roll-rate command is generated from a roll-stabilization loop. The inner loop tracks the outer loop commands using the dynamicinversion philosophy. However, unlike conventional designs, in both the loops the Six degree of freedom (Six-DOF) interceptor model is used directly. This intelligent manipulation preserves the inherent time scale separation property between the translational and rotational dynamics, and hence overcomes the deficiency of current IGC designs, while preserving its benefits. Six-DOF simulation studies have been carried out accounting for three dimensional engagement geometry. Different comparison studies were also conducted to measure the performance of the algorithm.

Al/SiC carriers for microwave integrated circuits by a new technique of pressureless infiltration

Materials with high thermal conductivity and thermal expansion coefficient matching with that of Si or GaAs are being used for packaging high density microcircuits due to their ability of faster heat dissipation. Al/SiC is gaining wide acceptance as electronic packaging material due to the fact that its thermal expansion coefficient can be tailored to match with that of Si or GaAs by varying the Al:SiC ratio while maintaining the thermal conductivity more or less the same. In the present work, Al/SiC microwave integrated circuit (MIC) carriers have been fabricated by pressureless infiltration of Al-alloy into porous SiC preforms in air. This new technique provides a cheaper alternative to pressure infiltration or pressureless infiltration in nitrogen in producing Al/SiC composites for electronic packaging applications. Al-alloy/65vol% SiC composite exhibited a coefficient of thermal expansion of 7 x 10(-6) K-1 (25 degrees C-100 degrees C) and a thermal conductivity of 147 Wm(-1) K-1 at 30 degrees C. The hysteresis observed in thermal expansion coefficient of the composite in the temperature range 100 degrees C-400 degrees C has been attributed to the presence of thermal residual stresses in the composite. Thermal diffusivity of the composite measured over the temperature range from 30 degrees C to 400 degrees C showed a 55% decrease in thermal diffusivity with temperature. Such a large decrease in thermal diffusivity with temperature could be due to the presence of micropores, microcracks, and decohesion of the Al/SiC interfaces in the microstructure (all formed during cooling from the processing temperature). The carrier showed satisfactory performance after integrating it into a MIC.

DTC Technique for Induction Machine based Integrated Starter-Generator of an Automobile

This paper mainly concentrates on the application of the direct torque control (DTC) technique for the induction machine based integrated startergenerator (ISG) for automobile applications. It also discusses in brief about the higher DC bus voltage requirements in the automobiles i.e. present 14V system vs. 42V system to meet the power requirements, modes of operation of ISG, electric machine and the drive selection for the ISG,description of DTC technique, simulation and experimental results, and implementation.