Voting games with incomplete information

We examine voting situations in which individuals have incomplete information over each others' true preferences. In many respects, this work is motivated by a desire to provide a more complete understanding of so-called probabilistic voting.

Chapter 2 examines the similarities and differences between the incentives faced by politicians who seek to maximize expected vote share, expected plurality, or probability of victory in single member: single vote, simple plurality electoral systems. We find that, in general, the candidates' optimal policies in such an electoral system vary greatly depending on their objective function. We provide several examples, as well as a genericity result which states that almost all such electoral systems (with respect to the distributions of voter behavior) will exhibit different incentives for candidates who seek to maximize expected vote share and those who seek to maximize probability of victory.

In Chapter 3, we adopt a random utility maximizing framework in which individuals' preferences are subject to action-specific exogenous shocks. We show that Nash equilibria exist in voting games possessing such an information structure and in which voters and candidates are each aware that every voter's preferences are subject to such shocks. A special case of our framework is that in which voters are playing a Quantal Response Equilibrium (McKelvey and Palfrey (1995), (1998)). We then examine candidate competition in such games and show that, for sufficiently large electorates, regardless of the dimensionality of the policy space or the number of candidates, there exists a strict equilibrium at the social welfare optimum (i.e., the point which maximizes the sum of voters' utility functions). In two candidate contests we find that this equilibrium is unique.

Finally, in Chapter 4, we attempt the first steps towards a theory of equilibrium in games possessing both continuous action spaces and action-specific preference shocks. Our notion of equilibrium, Variational Response Equilibrium, is shown to exist in all games with continuous payoff functions. We discuss the similarities and differences between this notion of equilibrium and the notion of Quantal Response Equilibrium and offer possible extensions of our framework.

A photographic record of a pre- and post-lake creation event from World War II at Valley, Isle of Anglesey, UK

The article compares a recent aerial photograph of the lowlands of the Isle of Anglesey area with a German surveillance photograph from 1941. The authors aim to infer the environmental changes made to this sand dune and lake system as a direct consequence of constructing the airfield. Part of Tywyn Trewan, the extensive sand dune system, was completely destroyed in order to create runways and the technical and domestic accommodation to house a strategic airfield. As part of the dredging, six new water bodies with a combined surface area of approximately 6 ha were created.

Los “serious games” como herramienta docente para el fomento del emprendimiento:concurso e-mprende UPV/EHU

La sociedad está sometida a un proceso de cambio constante y las metodologías docentes deben adaptarse también a estos cambios. Hemos decidido realizar el presente Trabajo de Fin de Grado con el fin de poner en valor la utilidad de las metodologías docentes más innovadoras que consigan adaptar la docencia a la sociedad moderna. Así pues, explicamos lo que son los Serious Games y los usos que pueden tener en la docencia desde el punto de vista del emprendimiento empresarial. Como ejemplo más cercano de Serious Game, utilizamos el simulador del concurso E-mprende, un concurso diseñado para estudiantes que enfrenta a los usuarios a través de un Simulador empresarial. Se trata de un Business Game desarrollado entre otros por la Universidad del País Vasco que intenta enseñar a los jugadores lo que es dirigir una empresa de nueva creación dándoles el control virtual de la misma a través de una plataforma web donde deberán tomar una serie de rondas de decisiones. Para comenzar, realizamos un análisis bibliográfico con el fin de dar una correcta explicación de lo que son los juegos, los Serious Games y los Business Games. Básicamente, un Serious Game se diferencia de un Juego ordinario en su finalidad. Mientras que un juego ordinario se ha diseñado con el único fin de divertir, el Juego Serio también tiene el objetivo de formar, entrenar o educar. Por su parte, Un Business Game es un Serious Game diseñado para el ámbito de los negocios en el que se pretende formar al jugador en materia de empresas. Realizando ese análisis bibliográfico, obtenemos una serie de conclusiones que podremos contrastar utilizando como ejemplo el simulador del concurso emprende. Para conseguir datos totalmente verídicos, elaboramos un cuestionario a medida destinado a los participantes del concurso que se entregó al finalizar el concurso. Dado que este Trabajo de Fin de Grado se enmarca en el ámbito del emprendimiento, lo que nos interesa contrastar por encima de todo es si el hecho de participar en un Business Game como el del concurso E-mprende ayuda a fomentar el espíritu emprendedor en el alumno más allá de complementar conocimientos teóricos y prácticos, lo cual no deja de ser importante.

Behavior ecology of the Humboldt squid, Dosidicus gigas: insights from an animal-borne video and data logging system

Dosidicus gigas is a large pelagic cephalopod of the eastern Pacific that has recently undergone an unexpected, significant range expansion up the coast of North America. The impact that such a range expansion is expected to have on local fisheries and marine ecosystems has motivated a thorough study of this top predator, a squid whose lifestyle has been quite mysterious until recently. Unfortunately, Dosidicus spends daylight hours at depths prohibitive to making observations without significant artificial interference. Observations of this squid‟s natural behaviors have thus far been considerably limited by the bright illumination and loud noises of remotely-operated-vehicles, or else the presence of humans from boats or with SCUBA. However, recent technological innovations have allowed for observations to take place in the absence of humans, or significant human intrusion, through the use of animal-borne devices such as National Geographic‟s CRITTERCAM. Utilizing the advanced video recording and data logging technology of this device, this study seeks to characterize unknown components of Dosidicus gigas behavior at depth. Data from two successful CRITTERCAM deployments reveal an assortment of new observations concerning Dosidicus lifestyle. Tri-axial accelerometers enable a confident description of Dosidicus orientation during ascents, descents, and depth maintenance behavior - previously not possible with simple depth tags. Video documentation of intraspecific interactions between Dosidicus permits the identification of ten chromatic components, a previously undescribed basal chromatic behavior, and multiple distinct body postures. And finally, based on visualizations of spermatophore release by D. gigas and repetitive behavior patterns between squid pairs, this thesis proposes the existence of a new mating behavior in Dosidicus. This study intends to provide the first glimpse into the natural behavior of Dosidicus, establishing the groundwork for a comprehensive ethogram to be supported with data from future CRITTERCAM deployments. Cataloguing these behaviors will be useful in accounting for Dosidicus‟ current range expansion in the northeast Pacific, as well as to inform public interest in the impacts this expansion will have on local fisheries and marine ecosystems.