Churchill as Chancellor of the Exchequer (1924–9) and the return to the gold standard

The general election of 29 October 1924 saw Winston Churchill return to Parliament as Constitutionalist MP for Epping after two years in the political wilderness. It also saw Stanley Baldwin swept back to Number 10 on a Conservative landslide. Speculation about whether Baldwin would cement Churchill’s drift from the Liberal fold by offering him office surfaced during the election campaign. Churchill nevertheless thought ‘it very unlikely that I shall be invited to join the Government, as owing to the size of the majority it will probably be composed only of impeccable Conservatives’. [ 1 ] Because of his anti-socialist credentials, his ability to reassure wavering Liberals through his opposition to protectionism – dropped by Baldwin after its rejection in the 1923 general election – and concern he could prove a rallying point for backbench malcontents, there was however much to commend giving Churchill a post. To his surprise, Baldwin offered Churchill the long-coveted office of Chancellor of the Exchequer, briefly held by his father before his ill-conceived resignation in 1887. Having arranged a meeting with his Labour predecessor, Philip Snowden, about outstanding business the new Chancellor set to work. Marking his political transition, a few days later Churchill resigned from the National Liberal Club.

Monetary policy, exchange rates and stock prices in the Middle East region

A structural vector autoregressive model is employed to investigate the impact of monetary policy and real exchange rate shocks on the stock market performance of Kuwait, Oman, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Jordan. In order to identify the structural shocks both short run and long run restrictions are applied. Unlike previous literature the contemporaneous interdependence between the financial variables are left unrestricted to give a more accurate depiction of the relationships. The heterogeneity of the results reflect the different monetary policy frameworks and stock market characteristics of these countries. Mainly, monetary policy and the real exchange rate shocks have a significant short run impact on the stock prices of the countries that apply a relatively more independent monetary policy and flexible exchange rates.

Cross-Industry Product Diversification and Contagion in Risk and Return: The Case of Bank-Insurance and Insurance-Bank Takeovers

We investigate the impact of domestic/international bancassurance deals on the risk-return profiles of announcing and non-announcing banks and insurers within a GARCH model. Bank-insurance deals produce intra- and inter-industry contagion in both risk and return, with larger deals producing greater contagion. Bidder banks and peers experience positive abnormal returns, with the effects on insurer peers being stronger than those on bank peers. Insurance-bank deals produce insignificant excess returns for bidder and peer insurers and positive valuations for peer banks. Following the deal, the bank bidders’ idiosyncratic (systematic) risk falls (increases), while insurance bidders exhibit a lower systematic risk and maintain their idiosyncratic risk.

Consumer confidence indices and stock markets’ meltdowns

Consumer confidence indices (CCIs) are a closely monitored barometer of countries’ economic health and an informative forecasting tool. Using European and US data, we provide a case study of the two recent stock market meltdowns (the post-dotcom bubble correction of 2000–2002 and the 2007–2009 decline at the beginning of the financial crisis) to contribute to the discussion on their appropriateness as proxies for stock markets’ investor sentiment. Investor sentiment should positively covary with stock market movements (DeLong, Shleifer, Summers, and Waldmann 1990); however, we find that the CCI–stock market relationship is not universally positive.We also do not find support for the information effect documented in the previous literature, but identify a more subtle relationship between consumer expectations about future household finances and stock market fluctuations.

Volatility and VaR Forecasting in the Madrid Stock Exchange

This paper provides an empirical study to assess the forecasting performance of a wide range of models for predicting volatility and VaR in the Madrid Stock Exchange. The models performance was measured by using different loss functions and criteria. The results show that FIAPARCH processes capture and forecast more accurately the dynamics of IBEX-35 returns volatility. It is also observed that assuming a heavy-tailed distribution does not improve models ability for predicting volatility. However, when the aim is forecasting VaR, we find evidence of that the Student’s t FIAPARCH outperforms the models it nests the lower the target quantile.

Winston Churchill as Chancellor of the Exchequer (1924-9) and the Return to the Gold Standard

This revisits Churchill's decision, as Chancellor of the Exchequer 1924-29, to restore the Gold Standard in 1925. This is considered within the wider context of the overall aims of Churchill's policies, including his efforts to: tackle Anglo-American economic and financial relations in the aftermath of the Great War; address budgetary pressures; widen the tax base through innovations such as the Betting Duty; spread the social burden of taxes; and revive the economy, not least through his de-rating scheme.

Compensação de executivos: stock options: o caso particular da compensação dos altos executivos

Orientadora: Mestre Cláudia Maria Ferreira Pereira Lopes

Estratégias e internacionalização na manutenção e produção

Trabalho Final de Mestrado para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Mecânica

Analysis of stock market indices through multidimensional scaling

We propose a graphical method to visualize possible time-varying correlations between fifteen stock market values. The method is useful for observing stable or emerging clusters of stock markets with similar behaviour. The graphs, originated from applying multidimensional scaling techniques (MDS), may also guide the construction of multivariate econometric models.

Dynamics of the Dow Jones and the NASDAQ stock indexes

The goal of this study is the analysis of the dynamical properties of financial data series from worldwide stock market indices. We analyze the Dow Jones Industrial Average ( ∧ DJI) and the NASDAQ Composite ( ∧ IXIC) indexes at a daily time horizon. The methods and algorithms that have been explored for description of physical phenomena become an effective background, and even inspiration, for very productive methods used in the analysis of economical data. We start by applying the classical concepts of signal analysis, Fourier transform, and methods of fractional calculus. In a second phase we adopt a pseudo phase plane approach.

Mercados bolsistas

O intenso intercâmbio entre os países, resultante do processo de globalização, veio acrescer importância ao mercado de capitais. Os países em desenvolvimento procuram abrir as suas economias para receber investimentos externos. Quanto maior for o grau de desenvolvimento de uma economia mais ativo será o seu mercado de capitais. No entanto, tem-se verificado uma tendência de substituição de enfoque económico, que antes era mais dirigido ao planeamento empresarial para metas mais ligadas ao meio ambiente. O mercado de capitais é um sistema de distribuição de valores mobiliários cujo objectivo é proporcionar liquidez a títulos emitidos pelas empresas, com a finalidade de viabilizar o processo de capitalização desses papéis. O mercado de capitais é composto pelas bolsas de valores, sociedades corretoras e outras instituições financeiras que têm autorização da Comissão de Valores dos Mercados Mobiliários (CMVM). O mercado bolsista insere-se no mercado de capitais. Nesses mercados, é importante conseguir conjuntamente a maximização dos recursos (retornos) e minimização dos custos (riscos). O principal objectivo das bolsas de valores é promover um ambiente de negociação dos títulos e dos valores mobiliários das empresas. Muitos investidores têm a sua própria maneira de investir, consoante o perfil que cada um tem. Além do perfil dos investidores, é também pertinente analisar a questão do risco. Vaughan (1997) observa que, nos dias atuais, a questão da administração do risco está presente na vida de todos. Este trabalho tem o propósito de demonstrar a necessidade da utilização de ferramentas para a seleção de ativos e para a mensuração do risco e do retorno de aplicações de recursos financeiros nesses activos de mercados de capitais, por qualquer tipo de investidor, mais especificamente na compra de ações e montagem de uma carteira de investimento. Para isso usou-se o método de Elton e Gruber, analisou-se as rentabilidades, os riscos e os índices de desempenho de Treynor e Sharpe. Testes estatísticos para os retornos das ações foram executados visando analisar a aleatoriedade dos dados. Este trabalho conclui que pode haver vantagens na utilização do método de Elton e Gruber para os investidores propensos a utilzar ações de empresas socialmente responsáveis.

Aplicação do modelo de Elton-Gruber para a construção de carteira no índice PSI-20

Os mercados financeiros têm um papel fundamental na dinamização das economias modernas. Às empresas cotadas oferece o capital necessário para impulsionar o seu crescimento e aos investidores individuais proporciona a diversificação das suas carteiras, usufruindo desta forma do crescimento e da vitalidade da economia mundial. A gestão de carteiras de ativos financeiros constitui uma área que procura apresentar mecanismos para a obtenção de uma relação ótima entre retorno e risco. Neste sentido, inúmeros estudos têm contribuído de forma significativa para a eficiência e para a prática desta técnica. Esta dissertação pretende analisar a metodologia desenvolvida por Elton-Gruber para a construção de carteiras otimizadas e aplicar as técnicas subjacentes ao mercado acionista português. Para o efeito, serão realizadas pesquisas em fontes bibliográficas da especialidade e serão consultadas bases de dados de cotações históricas das ações e do índice de mercado nacional. A aplicação incidiu sobre ações cotadas no índice PSI-20 durante o período compreendido entre 2010 e 2014. No intuito de melhorar a compreensão das séries de retornos das amostras, o estudo de caráter quantitativo também recorreu à análise estatística. As evidências mostram que a carteira otimizada, no período em análise, contém apenas as ações da empresa Portucel. Este resultado estará condicionado pelos efeitos da crise financeira que iniciou em 2008.

How differently do our non-large companies listed on the Portuguese Stock Exchange perform?

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Economics from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Return migration and entrepreneurship: An IV approach

Double Degree. A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Master’s Degree in Management from NOVA – School of Business and Economics and a Masters Degree in Economics from Louvain School of Management

Productivity gains from migration: An analysis of Cape Verdean return migrants

Are return migrants more productive than non-migrants? If so, is it a causal effect or simply self-selection? Existing literature has not reached a consensus on the role of return migration for origin countries. To answer these research questions, an empirical analysis was performed based on household data collected in Cape Verde. One of the most common identification problems in the migration literature is the presence of migrant self-selection. In order to disentangle potential selection bias, we use instrumental variable estimation using variation provided by unemployment rates in migrant destination countries, which is compared with OLS and Nearest Neighbor Matching (NNM) methods. The results using the instrumental variable approach provide evidence of labour income gains due to return migration, while OLS underestimates the coefficient of interest. This bias points towards negative self-selection of return migrants on unobserved characteristics, although the different estimates cannot be distinguished statistically. Interestingly, migration duration and occupational changes after migration do not seem to influence post-migration income. There is weak evidence that return migrants from the United States have higher income gains caused by migration than the ones who returned from Portugal.