INCLUDING RISK IN ECONOMIC FEASIBILITY ANALYSIS:A STOCHASTIC SIMULATION MODEL FOR BLUEBERRY INVESTMENT DECISIONS IN CHILE

ABSTRACT The traditional method of net present value (NPV) to analyze the economic profitability of an investment (based on a deterministic approach) does not adequately represent the implicit risk associated with different but correlated input variables. Using a stochastic simulation approach for evaluating the profitability of blueberry (Vaccinium corymbosum L.) production in Chile, the objective of this study is to illustrate the complexity of including risk in economic feasibility analysis when the project is subject to several but correlated risks. The results of the simulation analysis suggest that the non-inclusion of the intratemporal correlation between input variables underestimate the risk associated with investment decisions. The methodological contribution of this study illustrates the complexity of the interrelationships between uncertain variables and their impact on the convenience of carrying out this type of business in Chile. The steps for the analysis of economic viability were: First, adjusted probability distributions for stochastic input variables (SIV) were simulated and validated. Second, the random values of SIV were used to calculate random values of variables such as production, revenues, costs, depreciation, taxes and net cash flows. Third, the complete stochastic model was simulated with 10,000 iterations using random values for SIV. This result gave information to estimate the probability distributions of the stochastic output variables (SOV) such as the net present value, internal rate of return, value at risk, average cost of production, contribution margin and return on capital. Fourth, the complete stochastic model simulation results were used to analyze alternative scenarios and provide the results to decision makers in the form of probabilities, probability distributions, and for the SOV probabilistic forecasts. The main conclusion shown that this project is a profitable alternative investment in fruit trees in Chile.

Organisaation päätöksenteko ja tiedon rooli. Case: UPM-Kymmene Oyj, Kaukas

Tutkielman tavoitteena on selvittää, mihin päätöksenteko perustuu teollisuusyrityksessä. Tutkimuksessa kartoitettiin kohdeorganisaation päätöksentekijöiden näkemyksiä toimintaympäristöstään, itsestään päätöksentekijöinä ja päätöksenteosta sekä tiedosta ja sen käytöstä. Lisäksi sivutaan päätöksenteon sosiaalista luonnetta. Empiirisen tutkimuksen kohdeyksikkönä on UPM-Kymmene Oyj, Kaukas Lappeenrannassa. Tutkimus on toteutettu esimiestasolle suunnattuna lomakekyselynä lokakuussa 2003. Päätöksistä yleisimpiä olivat operatiivisen tason päätökset; taktisen ja strategisen tason päätöksiä tehtiin vähemmän. Päätöstilanteista useimmin kohdattuja olivat puolijäsentyneet ja jäsentyneet tilanteet, kun taas jäsentymättömät päätöstilanteet olivat harvinaisempia. Päätöksentekoprosesseista yleisimmin käytetty oli kirjallisuudessa taktiseen päätöstasoon ja puolijäsentyneisiin päätöstilanteisiin liitetty rajoitetun rationaalisuuden malliin perustuva vaiheittainen malli. Kirjallisuudessa strategiseen päätöksentekotasoon ja jäsentymättömiin päätöstilanteisiin liitetyn ns. iteratiivisesti vaiheittaisen mallin todettiin soveltuvan myös tämänkaltaiseen päätöksentekoon. Esimiehet pitivät toimintaympäristöään teollisuusyrityksessä pääasiallisesti orgaanisena. Tällaisessa ympäristössä vaikutussuhteet ja keinot ohjata ympäristöä perustuvat pitkälti vuorovaikutteisuuteen. Päätöksentekijöiden johtamistyylin todettiin olevan pikemminkin demokraattinen kuin autoritäärinen, mikä tukee edellä mainittuja tuloksia. Tiedon lähteistä päätöksenteon kannalta tärkeimpinä ja luotettavimpina koettiin henkilökohtaiset lähteet. Sisäiset lähteet nähtiin ulkoisia tärkeämpinä ja luotettavampina niin henkilökohtaisten, tekstimuotoisten kuin online-lähteidenkin osalta. Esimiesten todettiin hyödyntävän tosiasiatietoa, kokemusta ja intuitiota eri tavoin erilaisissa päätöstilanteissa, joten myös tehokkaat keinot tukea päätöksentekoa vaihtelevat päätöstyypeittäin. Tutkimuksen tulokset perustuvat kohderyhmän kyselylomakkeella kerättyihin mielipiteisiin. Käytetystä menetelmästä johtuen mielipiteiden taustatekijät ja todellinen toiminta organisaatiossa jäävät vielä avoimiksi. Tutkimustulosten syventäminen ja vahvistaminen sekä lisätiedon saaminen organisaation päätöksenteon todellisuudesta edellyttäisi empiiristä havainnointia tai vähintäänkin haastatteluja.

Arvojohtaminen ja omistajalähtöinen johtaminen eettisessä tarkastelussa

Liikkeenjohdollisten oppien tekstit välittävät uusien johtamiskäytäntöjen ja oivallustensa lisäksi lukijoilleen myös niitä arvoja ja etiikkakäsityksiä, joille uudet opit pohjautuvat. Koska tällaisen kirjallisuuden kuluttajat ovat usein yritysten päätöstentekijöitä, näiden näkemysten vaikutuspiiri saattaa olla hyvinkin laaja. Tämän tutkimuksen tavoitteena on selvittää kahden viimeaikaisen liikkeenjohdollisen opin eettisiä taustoja. Arvojohtaminen on johtamisoppi, jonka mukaan yrityksen tulee määrittää omat arvonsa, joiden normittamisen avulla yritystä voidaan johtaa. Arvojohtamisessa arvot nähdään ensisijaisesti välineinä, ja yrityksen johto asetetaan keskeisimmäksi oikean ja väärän määrittäjäksi. Omistajalähtöinen johtaminen puolestaan perustuu väitteelle, että yrityksen toimien oikeellisuutta voidaan mitata niiden omistajille tuottamalla varallisuudella. Finanssikapitalismin lailla se uskoo vakaasti markkinoiden itsesäätelyyn ja yksilön omaan kykyyn tehdä kypsiä ja eettisiä valintoja.

Selecting, testing and modifying a model for identifying potential key customers

Tämä työ tehtiin globaaliin elektroniikka-alan yritykseen. Diplomityö liittyy haasteeseen, jonka lisääntynyt globalisaatio ja kiristyvä kilpailu ovat luoneet: case yrityksen on selvitettävä kuinka se voi saavuttaa kasvutavoitteet myös tulevaisuudessa hankkimalla uusia asiakkaita ja olemalla yhä enenevissä määrin maailmanlaajuisesti läsnä. Tutkimuksen tavoite oli löytää sopiva malli potentiaalisten avainasiakkaiden identifiointiin ja valintaan, sekä testata ja modifioida valittua mallia case yrityksen tarpeiden mukaisesti. Erityisesti raakadatan kerääminen, asiakkaiden houkuttelevuuskriteerit ja kohdemarkkinarako olivat asioita, jotka tarvitsivat tutkimuksessa huomiota. Kirjallisuuskatsauksessa keskityttiin yritysmarkkinoihin, eri asiakassuhteenhallinnan lähestymistapoihin ja avainasiakkaiden määrittämiseen. CRM:n, KAM:n ja Customer Insight-ajattelun perusteet esiteltiin yhdessä eri avainasiakkaiden identifiointimallien kanssa. Valittua Chevertonin mallia testattiin ja muokattiin työn empiirisessä osassa. Tutkimuksen empiirinen kontribuutio on modifioitu malli potentiaalisten avainasiakkaiden identifiointiin. Se auttaa päätöksentekijöitä etenemään systemaattisesti ja organisoidusti askel askeleelta kohti potentiaalisten asiakkaiden listaa tietyltä markkina-alueelta. Työ tarjoaa työkalun tähän prosessiin sekä luo pohjaa tulevaisuuden tutkimukselle ja toimenpiteille.

Market Orientation in Rapidly Internationalizing Small Companies — Evidence from the Software Industry

For more than a decade, researchers have been aware of the increased pace of small-firm internationalization and the greater effect of these rapidly growing small businesses on the wealth, international trade, and job-creation opportunities of countries. Due to the small size of the home market, Finnish companies have been generally considered highly interested in internationalization. One particular domain in which rapid internationalization has been considered feasible is the global software business, with its knowledge-intensive nature and high growth potential. However, over time the failure rate of small entrepreneurial firms has remained especially high in high-technology markets. One of the reasons for this seems to lie in the fact that these companies are often formed by people with a strong technological background but limited competences in other areas. Further, research on the marketing capabilities of rapidly internationalizing high-tech firms has been scarce thus far. In addition, while there is much research on the first years of operations of rapidly internationalizing companies, it is not well known what becomes of them later on. Therefore, there is a need for more investigation into the managerial mindset, competences and decision-making in these small companies, especially from the perspective of how they acquire and exploit market knowledge, and enhance their networking capabilities in order to promote international expansion. The present study focuses on market orientation in small software firms that internationalize their operations rapidly in global software markets. It builds on qualitative data to illustrate how these companies develop their market-oriented product-market strategies during the process of increasing international commitment. It also shows how they manage their network relationships in order to be able to offer better customer service and to thrive in the fierce global competition. The study was conducted in the empirical context of Finnish small software companies, and the main data consists of interviews with top managers in these businesses. The interviews were designed to cover a minimum period of five years of the company's international operations, thus offering a retrospective in-depth perspective on market orientation, internationalization and partnerships in the given context. One particular focus is on less successfully internationalized software companies, and the challenges they face when approaching international markets. This study makes a significant contribution to the literature on market orientation for several reasons. First, building on data from the software industry, it clarifies the existing theory in the context of rapid internationalization and network relationships. Secondly, it provides a good body of evidence on market orientation in both successfully and less successfully internationalized companies, and identifies the key related differences between the two company groups. Thirdly, it highlights the importance of inter-firm networks in the rapid internationalization of small software firms, providing companies with important market knowledge and, in some cases, management challenges. Fourthly, this investigation clarifies market orientation in the context of different software-product strategies, thus, combining the perspectives of market orientation in both manufacturing and services. In sum, the results of the study are significant for both small software firms and public-policy makers since they shed light on the market-oriented managerial mindset and the market-information gathering and sharing processes that are needed in successful rapid internationalization.

Domains of importance to the quality of life of older people from two Swiss regions

BACKGROUND: quality of life (QoL) is a subjective perception whose components may vary in importance between individuals. Little is known about which domains of QoL older people deem most important. OBJECTIVE: this study investigated in community-dwelling older people the relationships between the importance given to domains defining their QoL and socioeconomic, demographic and health status. METHODS: data were compiled from older people enrolled in the Lc65+ cohort study and two additional, population-based, stratified random samples (n = 5,300). Principal components analysis (PCA) was used to determine the underlying domains among 28 items that participants defined as important to their QoL. The components extracted were used as dependent variables in multiple linear regression models to explore their associations with socioeconomic, demographic and health status. RESULTS: PCA identified seven domains that older persons considered important to their QoL. In order of importance (highest to lowest): feeling of safety, health and mobility, autonomy, close entourage, material resources, esteem and recognition, and social and cultural life. A total of six and five domains of importance were significantly associated with education and depressive symptoms, respectively. The importance of material resources was significantly associated with a good financial situation (β = 0.16, P = 0.011), as was close entourage with living with others (β = 0.20, P = 0.007) and as was health and mobility with age (β = -0.16, P = 0.014). CONCLUSION: the importance older people give to domains of their QoL appears strongly related to their actual resources and experienced losses. These findings may help clinicians, researchers and policy makers better adapt strategies to individuals' needs.

Tehdasmittausten varastointi moniulotteisella tietomallilla

Tietovarastoissa moniulotteinen tietomalli on tehokkain tapa esittää tietoa päätöksentekijöille. Sen toimivuus on hyväksi havaittu monissa eri liiketoimintaympäristöissä. Tehdasympäristöissä on tuhansia mittalaitteita, joista jokainen mittaa uniikkia valmistusprosessiin liittyvää piirrettä. Tässä työssä kehitettiin tietovarasto tehdasmittausten varastointiin käyttäen moniulotteista tietomallia. Havaittiin, että moniulotteisella mallilla tehdasmittaukset voidaan tallentaa joustavalla tavalla ja esittää käyttäjälle mielekkäässä muodossa. Moniulotteinen malli antaa myös erinomaiset keinot tiedon ryhmittelyyn ja vertailuun. Sillä ei kuitenkaan saada vastaavanlaisia hyötyjä kuin klassisissa kaupanalan tietovarastointi esimerkeissä, koska eri mittaukset ovat keskenään hyvin erilaisia. Vaikka mittaukset eivät olekaan aina vertailtavissa tai summattavissa keskenään, saadaan ne moniulotteisella mallilla tallennettua ja luokiteltua loogisesti siten, että käyttäjän on helppo löytää tarvitsemansa tieto. Lisäksi yleisesti tunnettu ja paljon käytetty tietovaraston suunnittelumalli takaa sen, että markkinoilta on saatavissa työkaluja tietovaraston käyttöön. Tietokannan toteutus tehtiin vapaasti levitettävän MySQLtiedonhallintajärjestelmän avulla. Sitä ei ole suunniteltu pääasiassa tietovarastokäyttöön, mutta halpa lisenssi ja hyvä skaalautuvuus tekevät siitä mielenkiintoisen vaihtoehdon. Sitä onkin käytetty luultua enemmän tietovarastoinnissa ja myös monien nimekkäiden organisaatioiden toimesta. Myös tässä työssä todettiin, että MySQL tarjoaa riittävät välineet tietovaraston kehittämiseen.

Repetitive Deliberate Fires: Critical Review of the Situation and Proposal of a Follow-Up Process and Systematic Analysis

Deliberate fires appear to be borderless and timeless events creating a serious security problem. There have been many attempts to develop approaches to tackle this problem, but unfortunately acting effectively against deliberate fires has proven a complex challenge. This article reviews the current situation relating to deliberate fires: what do we know, how serious is the situation, how is it being dealt with, and what challenges are faced when developing a systematic and global methodology to tackle the issues? The repetitive nature of some types of deliberate fires will also be discussed. Finally, drawing on the reality of repetition within deliberate fires and encouraged by successes obtained in previous repetitive crimes (such as property crimes or drug trafficking), we will argue that the use of the intelligence process cycle as a framework to allow a follow-up and systematic analysis of fire events is a relevant approach. This is the first article of a series of three articles. This first part is introducing the context and discussing the background issues in order to provide a better underpinning knowledge to managers and policy makers planning on tackling this issue. The second part will present a methodology developed to detect and identify repetitive fire events from a set of data, and the third part will discuss the analyses of these data to produce intelligence.

Adjusting for the environment in DEA: a comparison of alternative models based on empirical data

Due to the existence of free software and pedagogical guides, the use of Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) has been further democratized in recent years. Nowadays, it is quite usual for practitioners and decision makers with no or little knowledge in operational research to run their own efficiency analysis. Within DEA, several alternative models allow for an environmental adjustment. Four alternative models, each user-friendly and easily accessible to practitioners and decision makers, are performed using empirical data of 90 primary schools in the State of Geneva, Switzerland. Results show that the majority of alternative models deliver divergent results. From a political and a managerial standpoint, these diverging results could lead to potentially ineffective decisions. As no consensus emerges on the best model to use, practitioners and decision makers may be tempted to select the model that is right for them, in other words, the model that best reflects their own preferences. Further studies should investigate how an appropriate multi-criteria decision analysis method could help decision makers to select the right model.

Gender ingroup projection and the evaluative connotation of leader prototypes

The underrepresentation of women in top corporate ranks is a topic of ongoing discussion. Manager prototypes are proposed to be more male-typed than female-typed because historically men more often than women have held leadership roles. Why then is the maleness of manager prototypes even more pronounced among men than among women? Given that most personnel decision makers in organizations are men this phenomenon is problematic for women's advancement to top management positions. We address this question by investigating peoples' use of ingroup projection and their endorsement of evaluative attributes in constructing gender and leader prototypes.

The influence of decision-maker effort and case complexity on appealed rulings subject to multi-categorical selection

This study extends the standard econometric treatment of appellate court outcomes by 1) considering the role of decision-maker effort and case complexity, and 2) adopting a multi-categorical selection process of appealed cases. We find evidence of appellate courts being affected by both the effort made by first-stage decision makers and case complexity. This illustrates the value of widening the narrowly defined focus on heterogeneity in individual-specific preferences that characterises many applied studies on legal decision-making. Further, the majority of appealed cases represent non-random sub-samples and the multi-categorical selection process appears to offer advantages over the more commonly used dichotomous selection models.

Characterizing the vulnerability of frequent emergency department users by applying a conceptual framework: a controlled, cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: Frequent emergency department (ED) users meet several of the criteria of vulnerability, but this needs to be further examined taking into consideration all vulnerability's different dimensions. This study aimed to characterize frequent ED users and to define risk factors of frequent ED use within a universal health care coverage system, applying a conceptual framework of vulnerability. METHODS: A controlled, cross-sectional study comparing frequent ED users to a control group of non-frequent users was conducted at the Lausanne University Hospital, Switzerland. Frequent users were defined as patients with five or more visits to the ED in the previous 12 months. The two groups were compared using validated scales for each one of the five dimensions of an innovative conceptual framework: socio-demographic characteristics; somatic, mental, and risk-behavior indicators; and use of health care services. Independent t-tests, Wilcoxon rank-sum tests, Pearson's Chi-squared test and Fisher's exact test were used for the comparison. To examine the -related to vulnerability- risk factors for being a frequent ED user, univariate and multivariate logistic regression models were used. RESULTS: We compared 226 frequent users and 173 controls. Frequent users had more vulnerabilities in all five dimensions of the conceptual framework. They were younger, and more often immigrants from low/middle-income countries or unemployed, had more somatic and psychiatric comorbidities, were more often tobacco users, and had more primary care physician (PCP) visits. The most significant frequent ED use risk factors were a history of more than three hospital admissions in the previous 12 months (adj OR:23.2, 95%CI = 9.1-59.2), the absence of a PCP (adj OR:8.4, 95%CI = 2.1-32.7), living less than 5 km from an ED (adj OR:4.4, 95%CI = 2.1-9.0), and household income lower than USD 2,800/month (adj OR:4.3, 95%CI = 2.0-9.2). CONCLUSIONS: Frequent ED users within a universal health coverage system form a highly vulnerable population, when taking into account all five dimensions of a conceptual framework of vulnerability. The predictive factors identified could be useful in the early detection of future frequent users, in order to address their specific needs and decrease vulnerability, a key priority for health care policy makers. Application of the conceptual framework in future research is warranted.

The health of adolescents around a world in transition.

Since several years, the health of adolescents is on the agenda of ministers, decision makers and health professionals. Around the world, while there has been a steady decrease of the death rates among young children, this is not the case for young people. This is mainly linked with the fact that mortality and morbidity during this period of life is largely linked with non communicable diseases and conditions, including deaths from injuries, suicide, homicides and drug abuse. Unplanned pregnancies, illegal abortions, newly acquired HIV infections are also situations that have short and long term consequences. This paper reviews the epidemiological data pertaining to adolescent health and disease. It proposes evidence-informed avenues as how to address these issues in the field of health care (e.g. adolescent friendly services) and of prevention and health promotion. It also stresses the importance of creating safe environments for the development and well-being of young people and thus, of an interdisciplinary and inter sectorial approach to their complex health problems and challenges.

Towards actionable international comparisons of health system performance: expert revision of the OECD framework and quality indicators.

OBJECTIVE: To review and update the conceptual framework, indicator content and research priorities of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development's (OECD) Health Care Quality Indicators (HCQI) project, after a decade of collaborative work. DESIGN: A structured assessment was carried out using a modified Delphi approach, followed by a consensus meeting, to assess the suite of HCQI for international comparisons, agree on revisions to the original framework and set priorities for research and development. SETTING: International group of countries participating to OECD projects. PARTICIPANTS: Members of the OECD HCQI expert group. RESULTS: A reference matrix, based on a revised performance framework, was used to map and assess all seventy HCQI routinely calculated by the OECD expert group. A total of 21 indicators were agreed to be excluded, due to the following concerns: (i) relevance, (ii) international comparability, particularly where heterogeneous coding practices might induce bias, (iii) feasibility, when the number of countries able to report was limited and the added value did not justify sustained effort and (iv) actionability, for indicators that were unlikely to improve on the basis of targeted policy interventions. CONCLUSIONS: The revised OECD framework for HCQI represents a new milestone of a long-standing international collaboration among a group of countries committed to building common ground for performance measurement. The expert group believes that the continuation of this work is paramount to provide decision makers with a validated toolbox to directly act on quality improvement strategies.

An interactive web-GIS tool for risk analysis: a case study in the Fella River basin, Italy

This paper presents a prototype of an interactive web-GIS tool for risk analysis of natural hazards, in particular for floods and landslides, based on open-source geospatial software and technologies. The aim of the presented tool is to assist the experts (risk managers) in analysing the impacts and consequences of a certain hazard event in a considered region, providing an essential input to the decision-making process in the selection of risk management strategies by responsible authorities and decision makers. This tool is based on the Boundless (OpenGeo Suite) framework and its client-side environment for prototype development, and it is one of the main modules of a web-based collaborative decision support platform in risk management. Within this platform, the users can import necessary maps and information to analyse areas at risk. Based on provided information and parameters, loss scenarios (amount of damages and number of fatalities) of a hazard event are generated on the fly and visualized interactively within the web-GIS interface of the platform. The annualized risk is calculated based on the combination of resultant loss scenarios with different return periods of the hazard event. The application of this developed prototype is demonstrated using a regional data set from one of the case study sites, Fella River of northeastern Italy, of the Marie Curie ITN CHANGES project.