Sugarcane spirit market share simulation: an application of conjoint analysis

This study evaluated the influence of packaging and labeling attributes of sugarcane spirit on consumers' behavior by applying the results of conjoint analysis in sugarcane spirit market share simulation. Firstly, a conjoint analysis was performed aiming to estimate the part-worths of each consumer for some sugarcane spirit packaging and labeling attributes. These part-worths were used in the market share simulation using the maximum utility model. It was observed that some packaging and labeling attributes affected consumer's purchase intention and that most consumers showed a similar preference pattern regarding these attributes. These consumers showed preference for the Seleta brand, which was bottled in 700 mL clear glass bottles with a metal screw cap that bore a label illustration unrelated to sugarcane spirit production process and had the information "aged 36 months in oak barrels". This study also showed that conjoint analysis and the use of its results in the market share simulation proved important tools to better understand consumer behavior towards intention to purchase sugarcane spirit.

Simulation and material calibration of ultra high strength steel (UHSS) S960 welded joint under static tensile test utilizing finite element method (FEM)

The aim of this work was to calibrate the material properties including strength and strain values for different material zones of ultra-high strength steel (UHSS) welded joints under monotonic static loading. The UHSS is heat sensitive and softens by heat due to welding, the affected zone is heat affected zone (HAZ). In this regard, cylindrical specimens were cut out from welded joints of Strenx® 960 MC and Strenx® Tube 960 MH, were examined by tensile test. The hardness values of specimens’ cross section were measured. Using correlations between hardness and strength, initial material properties were obtained. The same size specimen with different zones of material same as real specimen were created and defined in finite element method (FEM) software with commercial brand Abaqus 6.14-1. The loading and boundary conditions were defined considering tensile test values. Using initial material properties made of hardness-strength correlations (true stress-strain values) as Abaqus main input, FEM is utilized to simulate the tensile test process. By comparing FEM Abaqus results with measured results of tensile test, initial material properties will be revised and reused as software input to be fully calibrated in such a way that FEM results and tensile test results deviate minimum. Two type of different S960 were used including 960 MC plates, and structural hollow section 960 MH X-joint. The joint is welded by BöhlerTM X96 filler material. In welded joints, typically the following zones appear: Weld (WEL), Heat affected zone (HAZ) coarse grained (HCG) and fine grained (HFG), annealed zone, and base material (BaM). Results showed that: The HAZ zone is softened due to heat input while welding. For all the specimens, the softened zone’s strength is decreased and makes it a weakest zone where fracture happens while loading. Stress concentration of a notched specimen can represent the properties of notched zone. The load-displacement diagram from FEM modeling matches with the experiments by the calibrated material properties by compromising two correlations of hardness and strength.

Mechanical design and optics simulation of the illuminated Volvo Iron mark

Utilization of light and illumination systems in automotive industry for different purposes has been increased significantly in recent years. Volvo as one of the leading companies in manufacturing of luxury cars has found the great capacity in this area. The performance of such an illumination systems is one of the challenges that engineers in this industry are facing with. In this study an effort has been made to design a system to make the iron mark of Volvo being illuminated and the system is being evaluated by optics simulation in software using Ray optics method. At the end, results are assessed and some optimizations are carried out. Different kind of light guides, front side of the iron mark and some possible arrangement for LED also evaluated and different materials tested. The best combination from uniformity, color and amount of luminance aspect selected as a possible solution for this special project which can be used as a base for further studies in Volvo.

Design and Simulation of High-Speed Rotating Electrical Machinery

Global energy consumption has been increasing yearly and a big portion of it is used in rotating electrical machineries. It is clear that in these machines energy should be used efficiently. In this dissertation the aim is to improve the design process of high-speed electrical machines especially from the mechanical engineering perspective in order to achieve more reliable and efficient machines. The design process of high-speed machines is challenging due to high demands and several interactions between different engineering disciplines such as mechanical, electrical and energy engineering. A multidisciplinary design flow chart for a specific type of high-speed machine in which computer simulation is utilized is proposed. In addition to utilizing simulation parallel with the design process, two simulation studies are presented. The first is used to find the limits of two ball bearing models. The second is used to study the improvement of machine load capacity in a compressor application to exceed the limits of current machinery. The proposed flow chart and simulation studies show clearly that improvements in the high-speed machinery design process can be achieved. Engineers designing in high-speed machines can utilize the flow chart and simulation results as a guideline during the design phase to achieve more reliable and efficient machines that use energy efficiently in required different operation conditions.

Dynamic modeling and simulation of the airflow cleaning device

The objective of the work is to study the flow behavior and to support the design of air cleaner by dynamic simulation.In a paper printing industry, it is necessary to monitor the quality of paper when the paper is being produced. During the production, the quality of the paper can be monitored by camera. Therefore, it is necessary to keep the camera lens clean as wood particles may fall from the paper and lie on the camera lens. In this work, the behavior of the air flow and effect of the airflow on the particles at different inlet angles are simulated. Geometries of a different inlet angles of single-channel and double-channel case were constructed using ANSYS CFD Software. All the simulations were performed in ANSYS Fluent. The simulation results of single-channel and double-channel case revealed significant differences in the behavior of the flow and the particle velocity. The main conclusion from this work are in following. 1) For the single channel case the best angle was 0 degree because in that case, the air flow can keep 60% of the particles away from the lens which would otherwise stay on lens. 2) For the double channel case, the best solution was found when the angle of the first inlet was 0 degree and the angle of second inlet was 45 degree . In that case, the airflow can keep 91% of particles away from the lens which would otherwise stay on lens.

Two-dimensional drift-diffusion simulation of organic solar cells

The aim of this master's thesis is to develop a two-dimensional drift-di usion model, which describes charge transport in organic solar cells. The main bene t of a two-dimensional model compared to a one-dimensional one is the inclusion of the nanoscale morphology of the active layer of a bulk heterojunction solar cell. The developed model was used to study recombination dynamics at the donor-acceptor interface. In some cases, it was possible to determine e ective parameters, which reproduce the results of the two-dimensional model in the one-dimensional case. A summary of the theory of charge transport in semiconductors was presented and discussed in the context of organic materials. Additionally, the normalization and discretization procedures required to nd a numerical solution to the charge transport problem were outlined. The charge transport problem was solved by implementing an iterative scheme called successive over-relaxation. The obtained solution is given as position-dependent electric potential, free charge carrier concentrations and current densities in the active layer. An interfacial layer, separating the pure phases, was introduced in order to describe charge dynamics occurring at the interface between the donor and acceptor. For simplicity, an e ective generation of free charge carriers in the interfacial layer was implemented. The pure phases simply act as transport layers for the photogenerated charges. Langevin recombination was assumed in the two-dimensional model and an analysis of the apparent recombination rate in the one-dimensional case is presented. The recombination rate in a two-dimensional model is seen to e ectively look like reduced Langevin recombination at open circuit. Replicating the J-U curves obtained in the two-dimensional model is, however, not possible by introducing a constant reduction factor in the Langevin recombination rate. The impact of an acceptor domain in the pure donor phase was investigated. Two cases were considered, one where the acceptor domain is isolated and another where it is connected to the bulk of the acceptor. A comparison to the case where no isolated domains exist was done in order to quantify the observed reduction in the photocurrent. The results show that all charges generated at the isolated domain are lost to recombination, but the domain does not have a major impact on charge transport. Trap-assisted recombination at interfacial trap states was investigated, as well as the surface dipole caused by the trapped charges. A theoretical expression for the ideality factor n_id as a function of generation was derived and shown to agree with simulation data. When the theoretical expression was fitted to simulation data, no interface dipole was observed.

Multibody models for examination of touchdown bearing systems

Increased rotational speed brings many advantages to an electric motor. One of the benefits is that when the desired power is generated at increased rotational speed, the torque demanded from the rotor decreases linearly, and as a consequence, a motor of smaller size can be used. Using a rotor with high rotational speed in a system with mechanical bearings can, however, create undesirable vibrations, and therefore active magnetic bearings (AMBs) are often considered a good option for the main bearings, as the rotor then has no mechanical contact with other parts of the system but levitates on the magnetic forces. On the other hand, such systems can experience overloading or a sudden shutdown of the electrical system, whereupon the magnetic field becomes extinct, and as a result of rotor delevitation, mechanical contact occurs. To manage such nonstandard operations, AMB-systems require mechanical touchdown bearings with an oversized bore diameter. The need for touchdown bearings seems to be one of the barriers preventing greater adoption of AMB technology, because in the event of an uncontrolled touchdown, failure may occur, for example, in the bearing’s cage or balls, or in the rotor. This dissertation consists of two parts: First, touchdown bearing misalignment in the contact event is studied. It is found that misalignment increases the likelihood of a potentially damaging whirling motion of the rotor. A model for analysis of the stresses occurring in the rotor is proposed. In the studies of misalignment and stresses, a flexible rotor using a finite element approach is applied. Simplified models of cageless and caged bearings are used for the description of touchdown bearings. The results indicate that an increase in misalignment can have a direct influence on the bending and shear stresses occurring in the rotor during the contact event. Thus, it was concluded that analysis of stresses arising in the contact event is essential to guarantee appropriate system dimensioning for possible contact events with misaligned touchdown bearings. One of the conclusions drawn from the first part of the study is that knowledge of the forces affecting the balls and cage of the touchdown bearings can enable a more reliable estimation of the service life of the bearing. Therefore, the second part of the dissertation investigates the forces occurring in the cage and balls of touchdown bearings and introduces two detailed models of touchdown bearings in which all bearing parts are modelled as independent bodies. Two multibody-based two-dimensional models of touchdown bearings are introduced for dynamic analysis of the contact event. All parts of the bearings are modelled with geometrical surfaces, and the bodies interact with each other through elastic contact forces. To assist in identification of the forces affecting the balls and cage in the contact event, the first model describes a touchdown bearing without a cage, and the second model describes a touchdown bearing with a cage. The introduced models are compared with the simplified models used in the first part of the dissertation through parametric study. Damages to the rotor, cage and balls are some of the main reasons for failures of AMB-systems. The stresses in the rotor in the contact event are defined in this work. Furthermore, the forces affecting key bodies of the bearings, cage and balls can be studied using the models of touchdown bearings introduced in this dissertation. Knowledge obtained from the introduced models is valuable since it can enable an optimum structure for a rotor and touchdown bearings to be designed.

Coopetition as a lead generating mechanism: design, modelling and simulation

The aim of this research is to develop a tool that could allow to organize coopetitional relationships between organizations on the basis of two-sided Internet platform. The main result of current master thesis is a detailed description of the concept of the lead generating internet platform-based coopetition. With the tools of agent-based modelling and simulation, there were obtained results that could be used as a base for suggestion that the developed concept is able to cause a positive effect on some particular industries (e.g. web-design studios market) and potentially can bring some benefits and extra profitability for most companies that operate on this particular industry. Also on the basis of the results it can be assumed that the developed instrument is also able to increase the degree of transparency of the market to which it is applied.

Genetic programming for the RoboCup Rescue Simulation System

The Robocup Rescue Simulation System (RCRSS) is a dynamic system of multi-agent interaction, simulating a large-scale urban disaster scenario. Teams of rescue agents are charged with the tasks of minimizing civilian casualties and infrastructure damage while competing against limitations on time, communication, and awareness. This thesis provides the first known attempt of applying Genetic Programming (GP) to the development of behaviours necessary to perform well in the RCRSS. Specifically, this thesis studies the suitability of GP to evolve the operational behaviours required of each type of rescue agent in the RCRSS. The system developed is evaluated in terms of the consistency with which expected solutions are the target of convergence as well as by comparison to previous competition results. The results indicate that GP is capable of converging to some forms of expected behaviour, but that additional evolution in strategizing behaviours must be performed in order to become competitive. An enhancement to the standard GP algorithm is proposed which is shown to simplify the initial search space allowing evolution to occur much quicker. In addition, two forms of population are employed and compared in terms of their apparent effects on the evolution of control structures for intelligent rescue agents. The first is a single population in which each individual is comprised of three distinct trees for the respective control of three types of agents, the second is a set of three co-evolving subpopulations one for each type of agent. Multiple populations of cooperating individuals appear to achieve higher proficiencies in training, but testing on unseen instances raises the issue of overfitting.

Simulation-Based Finite and Large Sample Tests in Multivariate Regressions.

In the context of multivariate linear regression (MLR) models, it is well known that commonly employed asymptotic test criteria are seriously biased towards overrejection. In this paper, we propose a general method for constructing exact tests of possibly nonlinear hypotheses on the coefficients of MLR systems. For the case of uniform linear hypotheses, we present exact distributional invariance results concerning several standard test criteria. These include Wilks' likelihood ratio (LR) criterion as well as trace and maximum root criteria. The normality assumption is not necessary for most of the results to hold. Implications for inference are two-fold. First, invariance to nuisance parameters entails that the technique of Monte Carlo tests can be applied on all these statistics to obtain exact tests of uniform linear hypotheses. Second, the invariance property of the latter statistic is exploited to derive general nuisance-parameter-free bounds on the distribution of the LR statistic for arbitrary hypotheses. Even though it may be difficult to compute these bounds analytically, they can easily be simulated, hence yielding exact bounds Monte Carlo tests. Illustrative simulation experiments show that the bounds are sufficiently tight to provide conclusive results with a high probability. Our findings illustrate the value of the bounds as a tool to be used in conjunction with more traditional simulation-based test methods (e.g., the parametric bootstrap) which may be applied when the bounds are not conclusive.

Simulation-Based Finite-Sample Tests for Heteroskedasticity and ARCH Effects.

A wide range of tests for heteroskedasticity have been proposed in the econometric and statistics literature. Although a few exact homoskedasticity tests are available, the commonly employed procedures are quite generally based on asymptotic approximations which may not provide good size control in finite samples. There has been a number of recent studies that seek to improve the reliability of common heteroskedasticity tests using Edgeworth, Bartlett, jackknife and bootstrap methods. Yet the latter remain approximate. In this paper, we describe a solution to the problem of controlling the size of homoskedasticity tests in linear regression contexts. We study procedures based on the standard test statistics [e.g., the Goldfeld-Quandt, Glejser, Bartlett, Cochran, Hartley, Breusch-Pagan-Godfrey, White and Szroeter criteria] as well as tests for autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARCH-type models). We also suggest several extensions of the existing procedures (sup-type of combined test statistics) to allow for unknown breakpoints in the error variance. We exploit the technique of Monte Carlo tests to obtain provably exact p-values, for both the standard and the new tests suggested. We show that the MC test procedure conveniently solves the intractable null distribution problem, in particular those raised by the sup-type and combined test statistics as well as (when relevant) unidentified nuisance parameter problems under the null hypothesis. The method proposed works in exactly the same way with both Gaussian and non-Gaussian disturbance distributions [such as heavy-tailed or stable distributions]. The performance of the procedures is examined by simulation. The Monte Carlo experiments conducted focus on : (1) ARCH, GARCH, and ARCH-in-mean alternatives; (2) the case where the variance increases monotonically with : (i) one exogenous variable, and (ii) the mean of the dependent variable; (3) grouped heteroskedasticity; (4) breaks in variance at unknown points. We find that the proposed tests achieve perfect size control and have good power.