931 resultados para model-based reasoning


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The features of two popular models used to describe the observed response characteristics of typical oxygen optical sensors based on luminescence quenching are examined critically. The models are the 'two-site' and 'Gaussian distribution in natural lifetime, tau(o),' models. These models are used to characterise the response features of typical optical oxygen sensors; features which include: downward curving Stern-Volmer plots and increasingly non-first order luminescence decay kinetics with increasing partial pressures of oxygen, pO(2). Neither model appears able to unite these latter features, let alone the observed disparate array of response features exhibited by the myriad optical oxygen sensors reported in the literature, and still maintain any level of physical plausibility. A model based on a Gaussian distribution in quenching rate constant, k(q), is developed and, although flawed by a limited breadth in distribution, rho, does produce Stern-Volmer plots which would cover the range in curvature seen with real optical oxygen sensors. A new 'log-Gaussian distribution in tau(o) or k(q)' model is introduced which has the advantage over a Gaussian distribution model of placing no limitation on the value of rho. Work on a 'log-Gaussian distribution in tau(o)' model reveals that the Stern-Volmer quenching plots would show little degree in curvature, even at large rho values and the luminescence decays would become increasingly first order with increasing pO(2). In fact, with real optical oxygen sensors, the opposite is observed and thus the model appears of little value. In contrast, a 'log-Gaussian distribution in k(o)' model does produce the trends observed with real optical oxygen sensors; although it is technically restricted in use to those in which the kinetics of luminescence decay are good first order in the absence of oxygen. The latter model gives a good fit to the major response features of sensors which show the latter feature, most notably the [Ru(dpp)(3)(2+)(Ph4B-)(2)] in cellulose optical oxygen sensors. The scope of a log-Gaussian model for further expansion and, therefore, application to optical oxygen sensors, by combining both a log-Gaussian distribution in k(o) with one in tau(o) is briefly discussed.

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The densities of five imidazolium-based ionic liquids (ILs) (1-butyl-3-methylimidazolium tetrafluoroborate, [CiC4-Im][BF 4]; 1-butyl-3-methylimidazolium hexafluorophosphate, [CiC 4Im][PF6]; 1-butyl-3-methylimidazolium bis{(trifluoromethyl)sulfonyl}imide, [C1C4Im][Tf 2N]; 1-ethyl-3-methylimidazoliumbis{(trifluoromethyl)sulfonyl}-imide, [C1C2Im][Tf2N]; l-ethyl-3-methylimidazolium ethylsulfate, [C1C2Im][EtSO4]) were measured as a function of temperature from (293 to 415) K and over an extended pressure range from (0.1 to 40) MPa using a vibratingtube densimeter. Knowledge of the variation of the density with temperature and pressure allows access to the mechanical coefficients: thermal expansion coefficient and isothermal compressibility. The effects of the anion and of the length of the alkyl chain on the imidazolium ring on the volumetric properties were particularly examined. The mechanical coefficients were compared with those of common organic solvents, water and liquid NaCl. Finally, a prediction model, based on an "ideal" volumetric behavior of the ILs, is proposed to allow calculation of the molar volume of imidazolium-based ionic liquids as a function of temperature. ©2007 American Chemical Society.

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Homology modeling was used to build 3D models of the N-methyl-D-aspartate (NMDA) receptor glycine binding site on the basis of an X-ray structure of the water-soluble AMPA-sensitive receptor. The docking of agonists and antagonists to these models was used to reveal binding modes of ligands and to explain known structure-activity relationships. Two types of quantitative models, 3D-QSAR/CoMFA and a regression model based on docking energies, were built for antagonists (derivatives of 4-hydroxy-2-quinolone, quinoxaline-2,3-dione, and related compounds). The CoMFA steric and electrostatic maps were superimposed on the homology-based model, and a close correspondence was marked. The derived computational models have permitted the evaluation of the structural features crucial for high glycine binding site affinity and are important for the design of new ligands.

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Increased complexity and interconnectivity of Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) systems in Smart Grids potentially means greater susceptibility to malicious attackers. SCADA systems with legacy communication infrastructure have inherent cyber-security vulnerabilities as these systems were originally designed with little consideration of cyber threats. In order to improve cyber-security of SCADA networks, this paper presents a rule-based Intrusion Detection System (IDS) using a Deep Packet Inspection (DPI) method, which includes signature-based and model-based approaches tailored for SCADA systems. The proposed signature-based rules can accurately detect several known suspicious or malicious attacks. In addition, model-based detection is proposed as a complementary method to detect unknown attacks. Finally, proposed intrusion detection approaches for SCADA networks are implemented and verified using a ruled based method.

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Increased complexity and interconnectivity of Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) systems in Smart Grids potentially means greater susceptibility to malicious attackers. SCADA systems with legacy communication infrastructure have inherent cyber-security vulnerabilities as these systems were originally designed with little consideration of cyber threats. In order to improve cyber-security of SCADA networks, this paper presents a rule-based Intrusion Detection System (IDS) using a Deep Packet Inspection (DPI) method, which includes signature-based and model-based approaches tailored for SCADA systems. The proposed signature-based rules can accurately detect several known suspicious or malicious attacks. In addition, model-based detection is proposed as a complementary method to detect unknown attacks. Finally, proposed intrusion detection approaches for SCADA networks are implemented and verified via Snort rules.

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This study presents a model based on partial least squares (PLS) regression for dynamic line rating (DLR). The model has been verified using data from field measurements, lab tests and outdoor experiments. Outdoor experimentation has been conducted both to verify the model predicted DLR and also to provide training data not available from field measurements, mainly heavily loaded conditions. The proposed model, unlike the direct measurement based DLR techniques, enables prediction of line rating for periods ahead of time whenever a reliable weather forecast is available. The PLS approach yields a very simple statistical model that accurately captures the physical performance of the conductor within a given environment without requiring a predetermination of parameters as required by many physical modelling techniques. Accuracy of the PLS model has been tested by predicting the conductor temperature for measurement sets other than those used for training. Being a linear model, it is straightforward to estimate the conductor ampacity for a set of predicted weather parameters. The PLS estimated ampacity has proven its accuracy through an outdoor experiment on a piece of the line conductor in real weather conditions.

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Interweaving planar spiral conductors in doubly periodic arrays enable substantially sub-wavelength resonant response along with broadening fractional bandwidth. A self-contained analytical model is proposed to accurately predict the characteristics of the intertwined quadrifilar spiral array near the fundamental resonance. The model, based upon a multiconductor transmission line (MTL) approach, provides physical insight into the unique properties of the distributed interactions between the interleaved counter-wound spiral arms extended beyond a single unit cell and elucidates the mechanisms underlying the array performance at normal and oblique incidence of TE and TM polarised waves. The developed MTL model is instrumental in the design of the artificial surfaces with the specified response.

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This paper presents a surrogate-model based optimization of a doubly-fed induction generator (DFIG) machine winding design for maximizing power yield. Based on site-specific wind profile data and the machine’s previous operational performance, the DFIG’s stator and rotor windings are optimized to match the maximum efficiency with operating conditions for rewinding purposes. The particle swarm optimization (PSO)-based surrogate optimization techniques are used in conjunction with the finite element method (FEM) to optimize the machine design utilizing the limited available information for the site-specific wind profile and generator operating conditions. A response surface method in the surrogate model is developed to formulate the design objectives and constraints. Besides, the machine tests and efficiency calculations follow IEEE standard 112-B. Numerical and experimental results validate the effectiveness of the proposed technologies.

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A novel model-based principal component analysis (PCA) method is proposed in this paper for wide-area power system monitoring, aiming to tackle one of the critical drawbacks of the conventional PCA, i.e. the incapability to handle non-Gaussian distributed variables. It is a significant extension of the original PCA method which has already shown to outperform traditional methods like rate-of-change-of-frequency (ROCOF). The ROCOF method is quick for processing local information, but its threshold is difficult to determine and nuisance tripping may easily occur. The proposed model-based PCA method uses a radial basis function neural network (RBFNN) model to handle the nonlinearity in the data set to solve the no-Gaussian issue, before the PCA method is used for islanding detection. To build an effective RBFNN model, this paper first uses a fast input selection method to remove insignificant neural inputs. Next, a heuristic optimization technique namely Teaching-Learning-Based-Optimization (TLBO) is adopted to tune the nonlinear parameters in the RBF neurons to build the optimized model. The novel RBFNN based PCA monitoring scheme is then employed for wide-area monitoring using the residuals between the model outputs and the real PMU measurements. Experimental results confirm the efficiency and effectiveness of the proposed method in monitoring a suite of process variables with different distribution characteristics, showing that the proposed RBFNN PCA method is a reliable scheme as an effective extension to the linear PCA method.

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The technique of externally bonding fibre reinforced polymer (FRP) composites has been becoming popular worldwide for retrofitting existing reinforced concrete (RC) structures. A major failure mode in such strengthened structures is the debonding of FRP from the concrete substrate. The bond behaviour between FRP and concrete thus plays a crucial role in these structures. The FRP-to-concrete bond behaviour has been extensively investigated experimentally, commonly using the pull-off test of FRP-to-concrete bonded joint. Comparatively, much less research has been concerned with the numerical simulation of this bond behaviour, chiefly due to difficulties in accurately modelling the complex behaviour of concrete. This paper proposes a robust finite element (FE) model for simulating the bond behaviour in the entire loading process in the pull-off test. A concrete damage plasticity model based on the plastic degradation theory is proposed to overcome the weakness of the elastic degradation theory which has been commonly adopted in previous studies. The model produces results in very close agreement with test data. © Tsinghua University Press, Beijing and Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2011.

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There is an increasing use of the discrete element method (DEM) to study cemented (e.g. concrete and rocks) and sintered particulate materials. The chief advantage of the DEM over continuum based techniques is that it does not make assumptions about how cracking and fragmentation initiate and propagate, since the DEM system is naturally discontinuous. The ability for the DEM to produce a realistic representation of a cemented granular material depends largely on the implementation of an inter-particle bonded contact model. This paper presents a new bonded contact model based on the Timoshenko beam theory which considers axial, shear and bending behaviour of the bond. The bond model was first verified by simulating both the bending and dynamic response of a simply supported beam. The loading response of a concrete cylinder was then investigated and compared with the Eurocode equation prediction. The results show significant potential for the new model to produce satisfactory predictions for cementitious materials. A unique feature of this model is that it can also be used to accurately represent many deformable structures such as frames and shells, so that both particles and structures or deformable boundaries can be described in the same DEM framework. 

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BACKGROUND: Head and neck (H&N) cancers are a heterogeneous group of malignancies, affecting various sites, with different prognoses. The aims of this study are to analyse survival for patients with H&N cancers in relation to tumour location, to assess the change in survival between European countries, and to investigate whether survival improved over time.
METHODS: We analysed about 250,000 H&N cancer cases from 86 cancer registries (CRs). Relative survival (RS) was estimated by sex, age, country and stage. We described survival time trends over 1999-2007, using the period approach. Model based survival estimates of relative excess risks (RERs) of death were also provided by country, after adjusting for sex, age and sub-site.
RESULTS: Five-year RS was the poorest for hypopharynx (25%) and the highest for larynx (59%). Outcome was significantly better in female than in male patients. In Europe, age-standardised 5-year survival remained stable from 1999-2001 to 2005-2007 for laryngeal cancer, while it increased for all the other H&N cancers. Five-year age-standardised RS was low in Eastern countries, 47% for larynx and 28% for all the other H&N cancers combined, and high in Ireland and the United Kingdom (UK), and Northern Europe (62% and 46%). Adjustment for sub-site narrowed the difference between countries. Fifty-four percent of patients was diagnosed at advanced stage (regional or metastatic). Five-year RS for localised cases ranged between 42% (hypopharynx) and 74% (larynx).
CONCLUSIONS: This study shows survival progresses during the study period. However, slightly more than half of patients were diagnosed with regional or metastatic disease at diagnosis. Early diagnosis and timely start of treatment are crucial to reduce the European gap to further improve H&N cancers outcome.

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BACKGROUND: The transtheoretical model has been successful in promoting health behavior change in general and clinical populations. However, there is little knowledge about the application of the transtheoretical model to explain physical activity behavior in individuals with non-cystic fibrosis bronchiectasis. The aim was to examine patterns of (1) physical activity and (2) mediators of behavior change (self-efficacy, decisional balance, and processes of change) across stages of change in individuals with non-cystic fibrosis bronchiectasis.

METHODS: Fifty-five subjects with non-cystic fibrosis bronchiectasis (mean age ± SD = 63 ± 10 y) had physical activity assessed over 7 d using an accelerometer. Each component of the transtheoretical model was assessed using validated questionnaires. Subjects were divided into groups depending on stage of change: Group 1 (pre-contemplation and contemplation; n = 10), Group 2 (preparation; n = 20), and Group 3 (action and maintenance; n = 25). Statistical analyses included one-way analysis of variance and Tukey-Kramer post hoc tests.

RESULTS: Physical activity variables were significantly (P < .05) higher in Group 3 (action and maintenance) compared with Group 2 (preparation) and Group 1 (pre-contemplation and contemplation). For self-efficacy, there were no significant differences between groups for mean scores (P = .14). Decisional balance cons (barriers to being physically active) were significantly lower in Group 3 versus Group 2 (P = .032). For processes of change, substituting alternatives (substituting inactive options for active options) was significantly higher in Group 3 versus Group 1 (P = .01), and enlisting social support (seeking out social support to increase and maintain physical activity) was significantly lower in Group 3 versus Group 2 (P = .038).

CONCLUSIONS: The pattern of physical activity across stages of change is consistent with the theoretical predictions of the transtheoretical model. Constructs of the transtheoretical model that appear to be important at different stages of change include decisional balance cons, substituting alternatives, and enlisting social support. This study provides support to explore transtheoretical model-based physical activity interventions in individuals with non-cystic fibrosis bronchiectasis.

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We consider the problem of segmenting text documents that have a
two-part structure such as a problem part and a solution part. Documents
of this genre include incident reports that typically involve
description of events relating to a problem followed by those pertaining
to the solution that was tried. Segmenting such documents
into the component two parts would render them usable in knowledge
reuse frameworks such as Case-Based Reasoning. This segmentation
problem presents a hard case for traditional text segmentation
due to the lexical inter-relatedness of the segments. We develop
a two-part segmentation technique that can harness a corpus
of similar documents to model the behavior of the two segments
and their inter-relatedness using language models and translation
models respectively. In particular, we use separate language models
for the problem and solution segment types, whereas the interrelatedness
between segment types is modeled using an IBM Model
1 translation model. We model documents as being generated starting
from the problem part that comprises of words sampled from
the problem language model, followed by the solution part whose
words are sampled either from the solution language model or from
a translation model conditioned on the words already chosen in the
problem part. We show, through an extensive set of experiments on
real-world data, that our approach outperforms the state-of-the-art
text segmentation algorithms in the accuracy of segmentation, and
that such improved accuracy translates well to improved usability
in Case-based Reasoning systems. We also analyze the robustness
of our technique to varying amounts and types of noise and empirically
illustrate that our technique is quite noise tolerant, and
degrades gracefully with increasing amounts of noise

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Tese de doutoramento, Educação (Didática da Matemática), Universidade de Lisboa, Instituto de Educação, 2014