Applications of stochastic analysis in finance and statistical inference

First: A continuous-time version of Kyle's model (Kyle 1985), known as the Back's model (Back 1992), of asset pricing with asymmetric information, is studied. A larger class of price processes and of noise traders' processes are studied. The price process, as in Kyle's model, is allowed to depend on the path of the market order. The process of the noise traders' is an inhomogeneous Lévy process. Solutions are found by the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equations. With the insider being risk-neutral, the price pressure is constant, and there is no equilibirium in the presence of jumps. If the insider is risk-averse, there is no equilibirium in the presence of either jumps or drifts. Also, it is analised when the release time is unknown. A general relation is established between the problem of finding an equilibrium and of enlargement of filtrations. Random announcement time is random is also considered. In such a case the market is not fully efficient and there exists equilibrium if the sensitivity of prices with respect to the global demand is time decreasing according with the distribution of the random time. Second: Power variations. it is considered, the asymptotic behavior of the power variation of processes of the form _integral_0^t u(s-)dS(s), where S_ is an alpha-stable process with index of stability 0&alpha&2 and the integral is an Itô integral. Stable convergence of corresponding fluctuations is established. These results provide statistical tools to infer the process u from discrete observations. Third: A bond market is studied where short rates r(t) evolve as an integral of g(t-s)sigma(s) with respect to W(ds), where g and sigma are deterministic and W is the stochastic Wiener measure. Processes of this type are particular cases of ambit processes. These processes are in general not of the semimartingale kind.

Hypertension. La pression artérielle dans la phase aiguë des accidents cérébrovasculaires [Hypertension. Arterial pressure in the acute phase of cerebrovascular accidents]

Blood pressure is abnormally elevated in acute stroke in most patients. This blood pressure increase is usually transient and associated with a poor prognosis. Lowering blood pressure too importantly during this period may worsen the outcome of the patient. Antihypertensive therapy is therefore required only when blood pressure is severely increased, especially in the presence of intracerebral haemorrhage. Initiating treatment before admission to the hospital is not recommended. The medications to be preferred are the blockers of the renin-angiotensin system, the beta-blocker labetalol (which possesses also alpha-blocking properties) and NO donors.

High bacterial load in negative pressure wound therapy (NPWT) foams used in the treatment of chronic wounds.

No earlier study has investigated the microbiology of negative pressure wound therapy (NPWT) foam using a standardized manner. The purpose of this study is to investigate the bacterial load and microbiological dynamics in NPWT foam removed from chronic wounds (>3 months). To determine the bacterial load, a standardized size of the removed NPWT foam was sonicated. The resulting sonication fluid was cultured, and the colony-forming units (CFU) of each species were enumerated. Sixty-eight foams from 17 patients (mean age 63 years, 71% males) were investigated. In 65 (97%) foams, â0/00¥âeuro0/001 and in 37 (54%) â0/00¥2 bacterial types were found. The bacterial load remained high during NPWT treatment, ranging from 10(4) to 10(6) CFU/ml. In three patients (27%), additional type of bacteria was found in subsequent foam cultures. The mean bacterial countâeuro0/00±âeuro0/00standard deviation was higher in polyvinyl alcohol foam (6.1âeuro0/00±âeuro0/000.5 CFU/ml) than in polyurethane (5.5âeuro0/00±âeuro0/000.8 CFU/ml) (pâeuro0/00=âeuro0/000.02). The mean of log of sum of CFU/ml in foam from 125âeuro0/00mmHg (5.5âeuro0/00±âeuro0/000.8) was lower than in foam from 100âeuro0/00mmHg pressure (5.9âeuro0/00±âeuro0/000.5) (pâeuro0/00=âeuro0/000.01). Concluding, bacterial load remains high in NPWT foam, and routine changing does not reduce the load.

Effect of expiratory positive airway pressure on sleep disordered breathing.

STUDY OBJECTIVES: We sought to determine the effect of expiratory positive airway pressure on end expiratory lung volume (EELV) and sleep disordered breathing in obstructive sleep apnea patients. DESIGN: Observational physiology study PARTICIPANTS: We studied 10 OSA patients during sleep wearing a facial mask. We recorded 1 hour of NREM sleep without treatment (baseline) and 1 hour with 10 cm H2O EPAP in random order, while measuring EELV and breathing pattern. RESULTS: The mean EELV change between baseline and EPAP was only 13.3 mL (range 2-25 mL). Expiratory time was significantly increased with EPAP compared to baseline 2.64 +/- 0.54 vs 2.16 +/- 0.64 sec (P = 0.002). Total respiratory time was longer with EPAP than at baseline 4.44 +/- 1.47 sec vs 3.73 +/- 0.88 sec (P = 0.3), and minute ventilation was lower with EPAP vs baseline 7.9 +/- 4.17 L/min vs 9.05 +/- 2.85 L/min (P = 0.3). For baseline (no treatment) and EPAP respectively, the mean apnea+hypopnea index (AHI) was 62.6 +/- 28.7 and 56.8 +/- 30.3 events per hour (P = 0.4). CONCLUSION: In OSA patients during sleep, the application of 10 cm H2O EPAP led to prolongation of expiratory time with only marginal increases in FRC. These findings suggest important mechanisms exist to avoid hyperinflation during sleep.

Suicidal ideation and the risk of suicide in patients with fibromyalgia: a comparison with non-pain controls and patients suffering from low-back pain.

Fibromyalgia is associated with an increased rate of mortality from suicide. In fact, this disease is associated with several characteristics that are linked to an increased risk of suicidal behaviors, such as being female and experiencing chronic pain, psychological distress, and sleep disturbances. However, the literature concerning suicidal behaviors and their risk factors in fibromyalgia is sparse. The objectives of the present study were to evaluate the prevalence of suicidal ideation and the risk of suicide in a sample of patients with fibromyalgia compared with a sample of healthy subjects and a sample of patients with chronic low-back pain. We also aimed to evaluate the relevance of pain intensity, depression, and sleep quality as variables related to suicidal ideation and risks. Logistic regression was applied to estimate the likelihood of suicidal ideation and the risk of suicide adjusted by age and sex. We also used two logistic regression models using age, sex, pain severity score, depression severity, sleep quality, and disease state as independent variables and using the control group as a reference. Forty-four patients with fibromyalgia, 32 patients with low-back pain, and 50 controls were included. Suicidal ideation, measured with item 9 of the Beck Depression Inventory, was almost absent among the controls and was low among patients with low-back pain; however, suicidal ideation was prominent among patients with fibromyalgia (P<0.0001). The risk of suicide, measured with the Plutchik Suicide Risk Scale, was also higher among patients with fibromyalgia than in patients with low-back pain or in controls (P<0.0001). The likelihood for suicidal ideation and the risk of suicide were higher among patients with fibromyalgia (odds ratios of 26.9 and 48.0, respectively) than in patients with low-back pain (odds ratios 4.6 and 4.7, respectively). Depression was the only factor associated with suicidal ideation or the risk of suicide.

Absolute height-specific thresholds to identify elevated blood pressure in children.

OBJECTIVE: : Identification of children with elevated blood pressure (BP) is difficult because of the multiple sex, age, and height-specific thresholds to define elevated BP. We propose a simple set of absolute height-specific BP thresholds and evaluate their performance to identify children with elevated BP in two different populations. METHODS: : Using the 95th sex, age, and relative-height BP US thresholds to define elevated BP in children (standard criteria), we derived a set of (non sex- and non age-specific) absolute height-specific BP thresholds for 11 height categories by 10 cm increments. Using data from large school-based surveys conducted in Switzerland (N = 5207; 2621 boys, 2586 girls; age range: 10.1-14.9 years) and in the Seychelles (N = 25 759; 13 048 boys, 12 711 girls; age range: 4.4-18.8 years), we evaluated the performance of these height-specific thresholds to identify children with elevated BP. We also derived sex-specific absolute height-specific BP thresholds and compared their performance. RESULTS: : In the Swiss and the Seychelles surveys, the prevalence of elevated BP (standard criteria) was 11.4 and 9.1%, respectively. The height-specific thresholds to identify elevated BP had a sensitivity of 80 and 84%, a specificity of 99 and 99%, a positive predictive value of 92 and 91%, and a negative predictive value of 97 and 98%, respectively. Performance of sex-specific absolute height-specific BP thresholds was similar. CONCLUSION: : A simple table of height-specific BP thresholds allowed identifying children with elevated BP with high sensitivity and excellent specificity.

Effectiveness of olive oil for the prevention of pressure ulcers caused in immobilized patients within the scope of primary health care: study protocol for a randomized controlled trial.

BACKGROUND Pressure ulcers are considered an important issue, mainly affecting immobilized older patients. These pressure ulcers increase the care burden for the professional health service staff as well as pharmaceutical expenditure. There are a number of studies on the effectiveness of different products used for the prevention of pressure ulcers; however, most of these studies were carried out at a hospital level, basically using hyperoxygenated fatty acids (HOFA). There are no studies focused specifically on the use of olive-oil-based products and therefore this research is intended to find the most cost-effective treatment and achieve an alternative treatment. METHODS/DESIGN The main objective is to assess the effectiveness of olive oil, comparing it with HOFA, to treat immobilized patients at home who are at risk of pressure ulcers. As a secondary objective, the cost-effectiveness balance of this new application with regard to the HOFA will be assessed. The study is designed as a noninferiority, triple-blinded, parallel, multi-center, randomized clinical trial. The scope of the study is the population attending primary health centers in Andalucía (Spain) in the regional areas of Malaga, Granada, Seville, and Cadiz. Immobilized patients at risk of pressure ulcers will be targeted. The target group will be treated by application of an olive-oil-based formula whereas the control group will be treated by application of HOFA to the control group. The follow-up period will be 16 weeks. The main variable will be the presence of pressure ulcers in the patient. Secondary variables include sociodemographic and clinical information, caregiver information, and whether technical support exists. Statistical analysis will include the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, symmetry and kurtosis analysis, bivariate analysis using the Student's t and chi-squared tests as well as the Wilcoxon and the Man-Whitney U tests, ANOVA and multivariate logistic regression analysis. DISCUSSION The regular use of olive-oil-based formulas should be effective in preventing pressure ulcers in immobilized patients, thus leading to a more cost-effective product and an alternative treatment. TRIAL REGISTRATION Clinicaltrials.gov identifier: NCT01595347.

Genetic variability in G2 and F2 region between biological clones of human respiratory syncytial virus with or without host immune selection pressure

Human respiratory syncytial virus (HRSV) is an important respiratory pathogens among children between zero-five years old. Host immunity and viral genetic variability are important factors that can make vaccine production difficult. In this work, differences between biological clones of HRSV were detected in clinical samples in the absence and presence of serum collected from children in the convalescent phase of the illness and from their biological mothers. Viral clones were selected by plaque assay in the absence and presence of serum and nucleotide sequences of the G2 and F2 genes of HRSV biological clones were compared. One non-synonymous mutation was found in the F gene (Ile5Asn) in one clone of an HRSV-B sample and one non-synonymous mutation was found in the G gene (Ser291Pro) in four clones of the same HRSV-B sample. Only one of these clones was obtained after treatment with the child's serum. In addition, some synonymous mutations were determined in two clones of the HRSV-A samples. In conclusion, it is possible that minor sequences could be selected by host antibodies contributing to the HRSV evolutionary process, hampering the development of an effective vaccine, since we verify the same codon alteration in absence and presence of human sera in individual clones of BR-85 sample.

Prediction of sustained antihypertensive efficacy of chronic captopril therapy: relationships to immediate blood pressure response and control plasma renin activity

The blood pressure (BP) lowering effect of the orally active angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitor, captopril (SQ14225), was studied in 59 hypertensive patients maintained on a constant sodium intake. Within 2 hours of the first dose of captopril BP fell from 171/107 to a maximum low of 142/92 mm Hg (p less than 0.001), and after 4 to 8 days to treatment BP averaged 145/94 mm Hg (p less than 0.001). The magnitude of BP drop induced by captopril was significantly correlated to baseline plasma renin activity (PRA) both during the acute phase (r = -0.38, p less than 0.01) and after the 4 to 8-day interval (r = -0.33, p less than 0.01). Because of considerable scatter in individual data, renin profiling was not precisely predictive of the immediate or delayed BP response of separate patients. However, the BP levels achieved following the initial dose of captopril were closely correlated to BP measured after 4 to 8 days of therapy, and appeared to have greater predictive value than control PRA of the long-term efficacy of chronic captopril therapy despite marked BP changes occurring in some patients during the intermediate period. Because of these intermediate BP changes, addition of a diuretic to enhance antihypertensive effectiveness of angiotensin blockade should be restrained for several days after initiation of captopril therapy.

Functional and molecular evolutionary analysis of the "Brevix Radix" gene family in mono-and dicotyledonous plants

ABSTRACTIn contrast to animals, plants cannot move from their place of birth and, therefore, need to adapt to their particular habitat in order to survive. Thus, plant development is remarkably plastic, making plants an ideal system for the isolation of genes that account for intraspecific natural variation and possibly environmental adaptation. However, to date, this approach mostly identified null alleles and missed mutations with subtle effects. For instance, BREVIS RADIX (BRX) has been isolated as a key regulator of root growth through a naturally occurring loss-of-function allele in the Arabidopsis thaliana accession Uk-1 and is the founding member of a highly-conserved plant-specific gene family.In this work, we show that a strong selective pressure is acting on the BRX gene family and dates back before the monocot-dicot divergence. However, functional diversification is observed mainly in dicotyledon BRX family genes and is correlated with acceleration in the evolutionary rates in the N-terminal regions. Population genetic data revealed that BRX is highly conserved across Arabidopsis accessions and presents signatures of adaptation. Interestingly, a seven amino acid deletion polymorphism in BRX sequence was found in a few accessions, which seems to be responsible for their enhanced primary root growth. Nevertheless, BRX might not only be active in the root, as suggested by its expression in the shoot. Indeed, leaves and cotyledons of brx mutants are significantly smaller than wild- type. This phenotype is a direct consequence of the absence of BRX function in the shoot rather than an indirect effect of an altered root system growth. Interestingly, cotyledons of brx plants reflect the same physiological defects as the root. Moreover, phenotypes in BRX gain-of-function plants, such as epinastic leaves and increased epidermal cell size, could be associated with an increase in leaf brassinosteroid content.Collectively, these results indicate that BRX contributes to local adaptation by ubiquitously regulating plant growth, probably through the modulation of brassinosteroid biosynthesis.RÉSUMÉContrairement à la plupart des animaux, les plantes ne peuvent se mouvoir et doivent ainsi s'adapter à leur environnement pour survivre. Pour cette raison, elles représentent un système idéal pour l'identification de gènes contribuant à la variation naturelle intra- spécifique, ainsi qu'à l'adaptation. Cependant, cette approche a, jusqu'à présent, surtout permis d'isoler des allèles nuls et non des mutations conférant des effets plus subtiles. C'est le cas du gène Β REVIS RADIX (BRX), un régulateur clé de la croissance racinaire, qui a été identifié grâce à un allèle non-fonctionnel présent dans l'accession naturelle d'Arabidopsis thaliana Uk-1. BRX et ses homologues des plantes mono- et dicotylédones forment une famille très conservée et spécifique aux plantes.Dans ce travail, nous démontrons que la famille de gènes BRX est soumise à une forte pression de sélection qui remonte avant la divergence entre mono- et dicotylédones. Cependant, une diversification fonctionnelle a été observée chez les gènes des dicotylédones et corrèle avec une accélération de la vitesse d'évolution dans leur région N- terminale. Une analyse génétique de différentes accessions naturelles d'Arabidopsis a révélé que BRX est hautement conservé et présente des signatures d'adaptation. Remarquablement, un polymorphisme de délétion de sept acides aminés a été détecté dans quelques accessions et a pour conséquence une plus forte croissance de la racine primaire. Néanmoins, il semble que le rôle de BRX ne se limite pas qu'à la racine, comme indiqué par son expression dans les parties aériennes de la plante. En effet, les mutants brx présentent des cotylédons et des feuilles significativement plus petits que le type sauvage, une conséquence directe de l'absence d'activité de BRX dans ces organes. Nous avons aussi noté que les cotylédons des mutants brx, à l'instar des racines, ont une perception altérée de l'auxine et peuvent être complémentés par l'application exogène de brassinostéroïdes. De plus, dans des plantes présentant un gain de fonction BRX, les feuilles sont épinastiques et les cellules de leur épiderme plus grandes. Ces phénotypes sont accompagnés d'une augmentation de la concentration de brassinostéroïdes dans les feuilles. Conjointement, ces résultats démontrent que BRX contribue à une adaptation locale de la plante par la régulation générale de sa croissance, probablement en modulant la biosynthèse des brassinostéroïdes.

Blood pressure loci identified with a gene-centric array.

Raised blood pressure (BP) is a major risk factor for cardiovascular disease. Previous studies have identified 47 distinct genetic variants robustly associated with BP, but collectively these explain only a few percent of the heritability for BP phenotypes. To find additional BP loci, we used a bespoke gene-centric array to genotype an independent discovery sample of 25,118 individuals that combined hypertensive case-control and general population samples. We followed up four SNPs associated with BP at our p < 8.56 × 10(-7) study-specific significance threshold and six suggestively associated SNPs in a further 59,349 individuals. We identified and replicated a SNP at LSP1/TNNT3, a SNP at MTHFR-NPPB independent (r(2) = 0.33) of previous reports, and replicated SNPs at AGT and ATP2B1 reported previously. An analysis of combined discovery and follow-up data identified SNPs significantly associated with BP at p < 8.56 × 10(-7) at four further loci (NPR3, HFE, NOS3, and SOX6). The high number of discoveries made with modest genotyping effort can be attributed to using a large-scale yet targeted genotyping array and to the development of a weighting scheme that maximized power when meta-analyzing results from samples ascertained with extreme phenotypes, in combination with results from nonascertained or population samples. Chromatin immunoprecipitation and transcript expression data highlight potential gene regulatory mechanisms at the MTHFR and NOS3 loci. These results provide candidates for further study to help dissect mechanisms affecting BP and highlight the utility of studying SNPs and samples that are independent of those studied previously even when the sample size is smaller than that in previous studies.