Social security in theory and practice (I): Facts and political theories

166 countries have some kind of public old age pension. What economic forcescreate and sustain old age Social Security as a public program? We document some of the internationally and historically common features of Social Security programs including explicit and implicit taxes on labor supply, pay-as-you-go features, intergenerational redistribution, benefits which areincreasing functions of lifetime earnings and not means-tested. We partition theories of Social Security into three groups: "political", "efficiency" and "narrative" theories. We explore three political theories in this paper: the majority rational voting model (with its two versions: "the elderly as the leaders of a winning coalition with the poor" and the "once and for all election" model), the "time-intensive model of political competition" and the "taxpayer protection model". Each of the explanations is compared with the international and historical facts. A companion paper explores the "efficiency" and "narrative" theories, and derives implicationsof all the theories for replacing the typical pay-as-you-go system with a forced savings plan.

Parental altruism under imperfect information: Theory and evidence

Can we reconcile the predictions of the altruism model of the family withthe evidence on parental monetary transfers in the US? This paper providesa new assessment of this question. I expand the altruism model by introducingeffort of the child and by relaxing the assumption of perfect informationof the parent about the labor market opportunities of the child. First,I solve and simulate a model of altruism and labor supply under imperfectinformation. Second, I use cross-sectional data to test the following prediction of the model: Are parental transfers especially responsive tothe income variations of children who are very attached to the labor market? The results of the analysis suggest that imperfect informationaccounts for many of the patterns of intergenerational transfers in theUS.

Indentifying human capital externalities: Theory with an application to US cities

The identification of aggregate human capital externalities is still not fully understood. The existing (Mincerian) approach confounds positive externalities with wage changes due to a downward sloping demand curve for human capital. As a result, it yields positive externalities even when wages equal marginal social products. We propose an approach that identifies human capital externalities whether or not aggregate demand for human capital slopes downward. Another advantage of our approach is that it does not require estimates of the individual return to human capital. Applications to US cities and states between 1970 and 1990 yield no evidence of significant average -schooling externalities.

A positive theory of geographic mobility and social insurance

This paper presents a tractable dynamic general equilibrium model thatcan explain cross-country empirical regularities in geographical mobility,unemployment and labor market institutions. Rational agents vote overunemployment insurance (UI), taking the dynamic distortionary effects ofinsurance on the performance of the labor market into consideration.Agents with higher cost of moving, i.e., more attached to their currentlocation, prefer more generous UI. The key assumption is that an agent'sattachment to a location increases the longer she has resided there. UIreduces the incentive for labor mobility and increases, therefore, thefraction of attached agents and the political support for UI. The mainresult is that this self-reinforcing mechanism can give rise to multiplesteady-states-one 'European' steady-state featuring high unemployment,low geographical mobility and high unemployment insurance, and one'American' steady-state featuring low unemployment, high mobility andlow unemployment insurance.

Endogeneous matching in university-industry collaboration: Theory and empirical evidence from the UK

We develop a two-sided matching model to analyze collaboration between heterogeneousacademics and firms. We predict a positive assortative matching in terms of both scientificability and affinity for type of research, but negative assortative in terms of ability on one sideand affinity in the other. In addition, the most able and most applied academics and the mostable and most basic firms shall collaborate rather than stay independent. Our predictionsreceive strong support from the analysis of the teams of academics and firms that proposeresearch projects to the UK's Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council.

Taking "Galton's problem" Seriously : Towards a Theory of Policy Diffusion

This article builds on the recent policy diffusion literature and attempts to overcome one of its major problems, namely the lack of a coherent theoretical framework. The literature defines policy diffusion as a process where policy choices are interdependent, and identifies several diffusion mechanisms that specify the link between the policy choices of the various actors. As these mechanisms are grounded in different theories, theoretical accounts of diffusion currently have little internal coherence. In this article we put forward an expected-utility model of policy change that is able to subsume all the diffusion mechanisms. We argue that the expected utility of a policy depends on both its effectiveness and the payoffs it yields, and we show that the various diffusion mechanisms operate by altering these two parameters. Each mechanism affects one of the two parameters, and does so in distinct ways. To account for aggregate patterns of diffusion, we embed our model in a simple threshold model of diffusion. Given the high complexity of the process that results, strong analytical conclusions on aggregate patterns cannot be drawn without more extensive analysis which is beyond the scope of this article. However, preliminary considerations indicate that a wide range of diffusion processes may exist and that convergence is only one possible outcome.

Mother's attachment representations of their premature infant at 6 and 18 months after birth.

The effects of premature birth on attachment have generally been examined from the infant's perspective. There is a lack of data concerning parental attachment representations toward a premature child. Because of the psychological stress engendered in parents confronted with a premature birth, we hypothesized that their attachment representations would be altered during the first months after the hospital discharge. Fifty families with a premature infant (25-33 gestation weeks) and a control group of 30 families with a full-term infant participated to the study. Perinatal risks were evaluated during hospitalization. To assess mothers' representations of their infant, the Working Model of the Child Interview (WMCI, Zeanah & Benoit, 1995 & Benoit, Zeanah, Parker, Nicholson, & Coolbear, 1997) were administered when their children were 6 and 18 months old. The severity of the perinatal risks was found to have an impact on the mothers' attachment representations. At six months, only 20% of the mothers of a prematurely born infant (30% at 18 months) had secure attachment representations, vs. 53% for the control group (57% at 18 months). Furthermore, mothers of low-risk premature infants more often had disengaged representations, whereas distorted representations were more frequent in the high-risk group of premature children. These findings suggest that the parental response to a premature birth is linked to the severity of postnatal risks. The fact that secure attachment representations are affected in mothers of low-risk infants just as much as they are in mothers of high-risk infants points to the need to conduct further studies aimed at evaluating whether preventive intervention for both low-risk and high-risk premature will be helpful.

Grinder's Group Mastery Theory : scientific research and its application to classroom teaching

Estudi centrat en el paper de la comunicació no verbal com a eina docent per a la gestió de l’aula, prenent com a referència el model de comunicació de Michael Grinder (Pentimento), basat en la Programació Neuro-lingüística (PNL). Aquest model s’analitza i es compara amb altres models i estudis sobre la comunicació no verbal, per establir-ne similituds i diferències. Per tal d’avaluar l’eficàcia de les tècniques de gestió de l’aula a través de la comunicació no verbal proposades per Grinder en un context educatiu real, s’inclouen i s’analitzen enregistraments de la implementació de diferents tècniques en un institut de secundària de Catalunya. Tota la informació recollida i analitzada permet valorar i ressaltar com és de significatiu tot allò que s’expressa més enllà del llenguatge, i per tant, com són d’importants i d’útils les habilitats comunicatives d’un professor en la seva tasca d’ensenyar.

Statistical learning theory for geospatial data. Case study: Aral sea

In recent years there has been an explosive growth in the development of adaptive and data driven methods. One of the efficient and data-driven approaches is based on statistical learning theory (Vapnik 1998). The theory is based on Structural Risk Minimisation (SRM) principle and has a solid statistical background. When applying SRM we are trying not only to reduce training error ? to fit the available data with a model, but also to reduce the complexity of the model and to reduce generalisation error. Many nonlinear learning procedures recently developed in neural networks and statistics can be understood and interpreted in terms of the structural risk minimisation inductive principle. A recent methodology based on SRM is called Support Vector Machines (SVM). At present SLT is still under intensive development and SVM find new areas of application (www.kernel-machines.org). SVM develop robust and non linear data models with excellent generalisation abilities that is very important both for monitoring and forecasting. SVM are extremely good when input space is high dimensional and training data set i not big enough to develop corresponding nonlinear model. Moreover, SVM use only support vectors to derive decision boundaries. It opens a way to sampling optimization, estimation of noise in data, quantification of data redundancy etc. Presentation of SVM for spatially distributed data is given in (Kanevski and Maignan 2004).

Le développement des interactions triadiques mère-père-enfant = The development of mother-father-child triadic interactions

Cet article présente un état des lieux des recherches menées selon le paradigme de « l'alliance familiale » sur le développement des interactions triadiques mère-père-enfant lors de la transition à la parentalité. Ces recherches ont montré tout d'abord que la qualité des interactions triadiques tend à être stable au cours des deux premières années de vie de l'enfant, et qu'elle peut être anticipée durant la grossesse par l'observation d'interactions dans une simulation de jeu triadique. Ensuite, elles ont montré qu'une altération de ces interactions a une influence sur le développement de l'enfant qui se manifeste tout au long des cinq premières années, tant au niveau affectif que cognitif (par exemple : la capacité d'attention triangulaire lors des premiers mois, ou le développement de la théorie de l'esprit et les difficultés de comportements à cinq ans). Cette influence s'exerce en plus de celle d'autres variables comme la relation d'attachement mère-enfant, ou la personnalité de l'enfant lui-même évaluée selon son tempérament. La triade constitue donc un contexte de développement en soi qui doit être pris en compte dans la prise en charge et l'intervention auprès de jeunes enfants.This paper presents the main results of researches on the development of mother-father-child triadic interactions during the transition to parenthood, according to the « family alliance » model. First, these researches have shown that the quality of triadic interactions tends to be stable through the first two years, and that it can be predicted during pregnancy by observation of a simulated triadic play. Then, they have shown that disturbances in triadic interactions have an impact on several affective and cognitive developmental outcomes for the child throughout the first five years (for example, the triangular attention capacity during the first months, or the development of theory of mind and externalized behaviors at age five). This impact is specific, and triadic interactions exert an influence on the development of the child over and above other variables like the mother-child attachment relationship, or the personality of the child assessed in terms of temperament. The triad constitutes then a context of development per se which has to be taken into account when working clinically with young children.

Inclusive fitness theory and eusociality.

Arising from M. A. Nowak, C. E. Tarnita & E. O. Wilson 466, 1057-1062 (2010); Nowak et al. reply. Nowak et al. argue that inclusive fitness theory has been of little value in explaining the natural world, and that it has led to negligible progress in explaining the evolution of eusociality. However, we believe that their arguments are based upon a misunderstanding of evolutionary theory and a misrepresentation of the empirical literature. We will focus our comments on three general issues.