Modeling and analysis on the propagation dynamics of modern email malware

Due to the critical security threats imposed by email-based malware in recent years, modeling the propagation dynamics of email malware becomes a fundamental technique for predicting its potential damages and developing effective countermeasures. Compared to earlier versions of email malware, modern email malware exhibits two new features, reinfection and self-start. Reinfection refers to the malware behavior that modern email malware sends out malware copies whenever any healthy or infected recipients open the malicious attachment. Self-start refers to the behavior that malware starts to spread whenever compromised computers restart or certain files are visited. In the literature, several models are proposed for email malware propagation, but they did not take into account the above two features and cannot accurately model the propagation dynamics of modern email malware. To address this problem, we derive a novel difference equation based analytical model by introducing a new concept of virtual infected user. The proposed model can precisely present the repetitious spreading process caused by reinfection and self-start and effectively overcome the associated computational challenges. We perform comprehensive empirical and theoretical study to validate the proposed analytical model. The results show our model greatly outperforms previous models in terms of estimation accuracy. © 2013 IEEE.

A Spatial-Temporal Downscaling Approach To Construction Of Rainfall Intensity-Duration-Frequency Relations In The Context Of Climate Change

This paper proposes a spatial-temporal downscaling approach to construction of the intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) relations at a local site in the context of climate change and variability. More specifically, the proposed approach is based on a combination of a spatial downscaling method to link large-scale climate variables given by General Circulation Model (GCM) simulations with daily extreme precipitations at a site and a temporal downscaling procedure to describe the relationships between daily and sub-daily extreme precipitations based on the scaling General Extreme Value (GEV) distribution. The feasibility and accuracy of the suggested method were assessed using rainfall data available at eight stations in Quebec (Canada) for the 1961-2000 period and climate simulations under four different climate change scenarios provided by the Canadian (CGCM3) and UK (HadCM3) GCM models. Results of this application have indicated that it is feasible to link sub-daily extreme rainfalls at a local site with large-scale GCM-based daily climate predictors for the construction of the IDF relations for present (1961-1990) and future (2020s, 2050s, and 2080s) periods at a given site under different climate change scenarios. In addition, it was found that annual maximum rainfalls downscaled from the HadCM3 displayed a smaller change in the future, while those values estimated from the CGCM3 indicated a large increasing trend for future periods. This result has demonstrated the presence of high uncertainty in climate simulations provided by different GCMs. In summary, the proposed spatial-temporal downscaling method provided an essential tool for the estimation of extreme rainfalls that are required for various climate-related impact assessment studies for a given region.

Model selection, estimation and forecasting in VAR models with short-run and long-run restrictions

We study the joint determination of the lag length, the dimension of the cointegrating space and the rank of the matrix of short-run parameters of a vector autoregressive (VAR) model using model selection criteria. We suggest a new two-step model selection procedure which is a hybrid of traditional criteria and criteria with data-dependant penalties and we prove its consistency. A Monte Carlo study explores the finite sample performance of this procedure and evaluates the forecasting accuracy of models selected by this procedure. Two empirical applications confirm the usefulness of the model selection procedure proposed here for forecasting.

Improvement on the sales forecast accuracy for a fast growing company by the best combination of historical data usage and clients segmentation

Industrial companies in developing countries are facing rapid growths, and this requires having in place the best organizational processes to cope with the market demand. Sales forecasting, as a tool aligned with the general strategy of the company, needs to be as much accurate as possible, in order to achieve the sales targets by making available the right information for purchasing, planning and control of production areas, and finally attending in time and form the demand generated. The present dissertation uses a single case study from the subsidiary of an international explosives company based in Brazil, Maxam, experiencing high growth in sales, and therefore facing the challenge to adequate its structure and processes properly for the rapid growth expected. Diverse sales forecast techniques have been analyzed to compare the actual monthly sales forecast, based on the sales force representatives’ market knowledge, with forecasts based on the analysis of historical sales data. The dissertation findings show how the combination of both qualitative and quantitative forecasts, by the creation of a combined forecast that considers both client´s demand knowledge from the sales workforce with time series analysis, leads to the improvement on the accuracy of the company´s sales forecast.

DETERMINATION of THE INDIRECT ORIENTATION of ORBITAL PUSHBROOM IMAGES USING CONTROL STRAIGHT LINES

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Orbit determination using GPS including perturbations due to geopotential coefficients of high degree and order and solar radiation pressure

The main target here is to determine the orbit of an artificial satellite, using signals of the GPS constellation and least squares algorithms implemented through sequential Givens rotations as a method of estimation, with the aim of improving the performance of the orbit estimation process and, at the same time, minimizing the computational procedure cost. Geopotential perturbations up to high order and direct solar radiation pressure were taken into account. It was also considered the position of the GPS antenna on the satellite body that, lately, consists of the influence of the satellite attitude motion in the orbit determination process. An application has been done, using real data from the Topex/Poseidon satellite, whose ephemeris is available at Internet. The best accuracy obtained in position was smaller than 5 meters for short period (2 hours) and smaller than 28 meters for long period (24 hours) orbit determination. In both cases, the perturbations mentioned before were taken into consideration and the analysis occurred without selective availability on the signals measurements.

Comparison of accuracy between compression- and injection-molded complete dentures

Statement of problem. A clinically significant incisal pin opening may occur after processing complete dentures if a compression molding technique is used. To recover the proper vertical dimension of occlusion, a time-consuming occlusal adjustment is necessary that often destroys the anatomy of the artificial teeth. A new injection molding process claims to produce dentures that require few, if any, occlusal adjustments in the laboratory after processing.Purpose. This laboratory study compared incisal pin opening, dimensional accuracy, and laboratory working time for dentures fabricated by this new injection system with dentures constructed by the conventional compression molding technique.Material and methods. Two groups of 6 maxillary and 6 mandibular dentures were evaluated as follows: group 1 (control), Lucitone 199, compression molded with a long cure cycle; and group 2, Lucitone 199, injection molded with a long cure. Incisal pin opening was measured with a micrometer immediately after deflasking. A computerized coordinate measuring machine was used to measure dimensional accuracy of 3-dimensional variations in selected positions of artificial teeth in 4 stages of denture fabrication. Analysis of variance (ANOVA) and t tests were performed to compare the groups.Results. A significant difference was found in pin opening between groups (t test). Horizontal dimensional changes evaluated with repeated measures ANOVA revealed no significant differences between groups. However, analysis of vertical dimensional changes disclosed significant differences between the groups. There was no appreciable difference in laboratory working time for flasking and molding denture bases between the injection and compression molding techniques when polymethyl methacrylate resin was used.Conclusion. The injection molding method produced a significantly smaller incisal pin opening over the standard compression molding technique. The injection molding technique, using polymethyl methacrylate, was a more accurate method for processing dentures. There were no appreciable differences in laboratory working time between the injection and compression molding techniques.

Accuracy assessment of a photogrammetric close-range reconstruction system

Geometric accuracy of a close-range photogrammetric system is assessed in this paper considering surface reconstruction with structured light as its main purpose. The system is based on an off-the-shelf digital camera and a pattern projector. The mathematical model for reconstruction is based on the parametric equation of the projected straight line combined with collinearity equations. A sequential approach for system calibration was developed and is presented. Results obtained from real data are also presented and discussed. Experiments with real data using a prototype have indicated 0.5mm of accuracy in height determination and 0.2mm in the XY plane considering an application where the object was 1630mm distant from the camera.

The influence of subpixel measurement on digital camera calibration

The aim of this work is to evaluate the influence of point measurements in images, with subpixel accuracy, and its contribution in the calibration of digital cameras. Also, the effect of subpixel measurements in 3D coordinates of check points in the object space will be evaluated. With this purpose, an algorithm that allows subpixel accuracy was implemented for semi-automatic determination of points of interest, based on Fõrstner operator. Experiments were accomplished with a block of images acquired with the multispectral camera DuncanTech MS3100-CIR. The influence of subpixel measurements in the adjustment by Least Square Method (LSM) was evaluated by the comparison of estimated standard deviation of parameters in both situations, with manual measurement (pixel accuracy) and with subpixel estimation. Additionally, the influence of subpixel measurements in the 3D reconstruction was also analyzed. Based on the obtained results, i.e., on the quantification of the standard deviation reduction in the Inner Orientation Parameters (IOP) and also in the relative error of the 3D reconstruction, it was shown that measurements with subpixel accuracy are relevant for some tasks in Photogrammetry, mainly for those in which the metric quality is of great relevance, as Camera Calibration.

Comparison of the accuracy for three dental impression techniques and index: An in vitro study

Objectives: This in vitro study compared the dimensional accuracy of stone index (I) and three impression techniques: tapered impression copings (T), squared impression copings (S) and modified squared impression copings (MS) for implant-supported prostheses. Methods: A master cast, with four parallel implant abutment analogs and a passive framework, were fabricated. Vinyl polysiloxane impression material was used for all impressions with two metal stock trays (open and closed tray). Four groups (I, T, S and MS) were tested (n = 5). A metallic framework was seated on each of the casts, one abutment screw was tightened, and the gap between the analog of implant and the framework was measured with a stereomicroscope. The groups' measurements (80 gap values) were analyzed using software (LeicaQWin - Leica Imaging Systems Ltd.) that received the images of a video camera coupled to a Leica stereomicroscope at 100× magnification. The results were statistically analyzed with Kruskal-Wallis One Way ANOVA on Ranks test followed by Dunn's Method, 0.05. Results: The mean values of abutment/framework interface gaps were: Master Cast = 32 μm (SD 2); Group I = 45 μm (SD 3); Group T = 78 μm (SD 25); Group S = 134 μm (SD 30); Group MS = 143 μm (SD 27). No significant difference was detected among Index and Master Cast (P = .05). Conclusion: Under the limitations of this study, it could be suggested that a more accurate working cast is possible using tapered impression copings techniques and stone index. © 2013 Japan Prosthodontic Society.

Automatic Orientation of Multi-Scale Terrestrial Images for 3D Reconstruction

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Predicting breeding values for milk yield of Guzera (Bos indicus) cows using random regression models

Given the importance of Guzera breeding programs for milk production in the tropics, the objective of this study was to compare alternative random regression models for estimation of genetic parameters and prediction of breeding values. Test-day milk yields records (TDR) were collected monthly, in a maximum of 10 measurements. The database included 20,524 records of first lactation from 2816 Guzera cows. TDR data were analyzed by random regression models (RRM) considering additive genetic, permanent environmental and residual effects as random and the effects of contemporary group (CG), calving age as a covariate (linear and quadratic effects) and mean lactation curve as fixed. The genetic additive and permanent environmental effects were modeled by RRM using Wilmink, All and Schaeffer and cubic B-spline functions as well as Legendre polynomials. Residual variances were considered as heterogeneous classes, grouped differently according to the model used. Multi-trait analysis using finite-dimensional models (FDM) for testday milk records (TDR) and a single-trait model for 305-days milk yields (default) using the restricted maximum likelihood method were also carried out as further comparisons. Through the statistical criteria adopted, the best RRM was the one that used the cubic B-spline function with five random regression coefficients for the genetic additive and permanent environmental effects. However, the models using the Ali and Schaeffer function or Legendre polynomials with second and fifth order for, respectively, the additive genetic and permanent environmental effects can be adopted, as little variation was observed in the genetic parameter estimates compared to those estimated by models using the B-spline function. Therefore, due to the lower complexity in the (co)variance estimations, the model using Legendre polynomials represented the best option for the genetic evaluation of the Guzera lactation records. An increase of 3.6% in the accuracy of the estimated breeding values was verified when using RRM. The ranks of animals were very close whatever the RRM for the data set used to predict breeding values. Considering P305, results indicated only small to medium difference in the animals' ranking based on breeding values predicted by the conventional model or by RRM. Therefore, the sum of all the RRM-predicted breeding values along the lactation period (RRM305) can be used as a selection criterion for 305-day milk production. (c) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Estimation methods of reference evapotranspiration (ETo) for Uberlândia -MG

One approach to verify the adequacy of estimation methods of reference evapotranspiration is the comparison with the Penman-Monteith method, recommended by the United Nations of Food and Agriculture Organization - FAO, as the standard method for estimating ET0. This study aimed to compare methods for estimating ET0, Makkink (MK), Hargreaves (HG) and Solar Radiation (RS), with Penman-Monteith (PM). For this purpose, we used daily data of global solar radiation, air temperature, relative humidity and wind speed for the year 2010, obtained through the automatic meteorological station, with latitude 18° 91' 66 S, longitude 48° 25' 05 W and altitude of 869m, at the National Institute of Meteorology situated in the Campus of Federal University of Uberlandia - MG, Brazil. Analysis of results for the period were carried out in daily basis, using regression analysis and considering the linear model y = ax, where the dependent variable was the method of Penman-Monteith and the independent, the estimation of ET0 by evaluated methods. Methodology was used to check the influence of standard deviation of daily ET0 in comparison of methods. The evaluation indicated that methods of Solar Radiation and Penman-Monteith cannot be compared, yet the method of Hargreaves indicates the most efficient adjustment to estimate ETo.

Genetic analysis of the temperament of Nellore cattle using linear and threshold models

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)