Sistemas de gerenciamento de bibliotecas: riscos decorrentes do processo de migração de dados

This work aims to analyze risks related to information technology (IT) in procedures related to data migration. This is done considering ALEPH, Integrated Libray System (ILS) that migrated data to the Library Module present in the software called Sistema Integrado de Gestão de Atividades Acadêmicas (SIGAA) at the Zila Mamede Central Library at the Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte (UFRN) in Natal/Brazil. The methodological procedure used was of a qualitative exploratory research with the realization of case study at the referred library in order to better understand this phenomenon. Data collection was able once there was use of a semi-structured interview that was applied with (11) subjects that are employed at the library as well as in the Technology Superintendence at UFRN. In order to examine data Content analysis as well as thematic review process was performed. After data migration the results of the interview were then linked to both analysis units and their system register with category correspondence. The main risks detected were: data destruction; data loss; data bank communication failure; user response delay; data inconsistency and duplicity. These elements point out implication and generate disorders that affect external and internal system users and lead to stress, work duplicity and hassles. Thus, some measures were taken related to risk management such as adequate planning, central management support, and pilot test simulations. For the advantages it has reduced of: risk, occurrence of problems and possible unforeseen costs, and allows achieving organizational objectives, among other. It is inferred therefore that the risks present in data bank conversion in libraries exist and some are predictable, however, it is seen that librarians do not know or ignore and are not very worried in the identification risks in data bank conversion, their acknowledge would minimize or even extinguish them. Another important aspect to consider is the existence of few empirical research that deal specifically with this subject and thus presenting the new of new approaches in order to promote better understanding of the matter in the corporate environment of the information units

Implementação de um plano de segurança de águas num hospital

Dissertação de Natureza Científica para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Civil

Measuring, Modeling, and Forecasting Volatility and Correlations from High-Frequency Data

This dissertation contains four essays that all share a common purpose: developing new methodologies to exploit the potential of high-frequency data for the measurement, modeling and forecasting of financial assets volatility and correlations. The first two chapters provide useful tools for univariate applications while the last two chapters develop multivariate methodologies. In chapter 1, we introduce a new class of univariate volatility models named FloGARCH models. FloGARCH models provide a parsimonious joint model for low frequency returns and realized measures, and are sufficiently flexible to capture long memory as well as asymmetries related to leverage effects. We analyze the performances of the models in a realistic numerical study and on the basis of a data set composed of 65 equities. Using more than 10 years of high-frequency transactions, we document significant statistical gains related to the FloGARCH models in terms of in-sample fit, out-of-sample fit and forecasting accuracy compared to classical and Realized GARCH models. In chapter 2, using 12 years of high-frequency transactions for 55 U.S. stocks, we argue that combining low-frequency exogenous economic indicators with high-frequency financial data improves the ability of conditionally heteroskedastic models to forecast the volatility of returns, their full multi-step ahead conditional distribution and the multi-period Value-at-Risk. Using a refined version of the Realized LGARCH model allowing for time-varying intercept and implemented with realized kernels, we document that nominal corporate profits and term spreads have strong long-run predictive ability and generate accurate risk measures forecasts over long-horizon. The results are based on several loss functions and tests, including the Model Confidence Set. Chapter 3 is a joint work with David Veredas. We study the class of disentangled realized estimators for the integrated covariance matrix of Brownian semimartingales with finite activity jumps. These estimators separate correlations and volatilities. We analyze different combinations of quantile- and median-based realized volatilities, and four estimators of realized correlations with three synchronization schemes. Their finite sample properties are studied under four data generating processes, in presence, or not, of microstructure noise, and under synchronous and asynchronous trading. The main finding is that the pre-averaged version of disentangled estimators based on Gaussian ranks (for the correlations) and median deviations (for the volatilities) provide a precise, computationally efficient, and easy alternative to measure integrated covariances on the basis of noisy and asynchronous prices. Along these lines, a minimum variance portfolio application shows the superiority of this disentangled realized estimator in terms of numerous performance metrics. Chapter 4 is co-authored with Niels S. Hansen, Asger Lunde and Kasper V. Olesen, all affiliated with CREATES at Aarhus University. We propose to use the Realized Beta GARCH model to exploit the potential of high-frequency data in commodity markets. The model produces high quality forecasts of pairwise correlations between commodities which can be used to construct a composite covariance matrix. We evaluate the quality of this matrix in a portfolio context and compare it to models used in the industry. We demonstrate significant economic gains in a realistic setting including short selling constraints and transaction costs.

Twenty years of Hendra virus: laboratory submission trends and risk factors for infection in horses

Hendra virus (HeV) was first described in 1994 in an outbreak of acute and highly lethal disease in horses and humans in Australia. Equine cases continue to be diagnosed periodically, yet the predisposing factors for infection remain unclear. We undertook an analysis of equine submissions tested for HeV by the Queensland government veterinary reference laboratory over a 20-year period to identify and investigate any patterns. We found a marked increase in testing from July 2008, primarily reflecting a broadening of the HeV clinical case definition. Peaks in submissions for testing, and visitations to the Government HeV website, were associated with reported equine incidents. Significantly differing between-year HeV detection rates in north and south Queensland suggest a fundamental difference in risk exposure between the two regions. The statistical association between HeV detection and stockhorse type may suggest that husbandry is a more important risk determinant than breed per se. The detection of HeV in horses with neither neurological nor respiratory signs poses a risk management challenge for attending veterinarians and laboratory staff, reinforcing animal health authority recommendations that appropriate risk management strategies be employed for all sick horses, and by anyone handling sick horses or associated biological samples.

Twenty years of Hendra virus: laboratory submission trends and risk factors for infection in horses

SUMMARY Hendra virus (HeV) was first described in 1994 in an outbreak of acute and highly lethal disease in horses and humans in Australia. Equine cases continue to be diagnosed periodically, yet the predisposing factors for infection remain unclear. We undertook an analysis of equine submissions tested for HeV by the Queensland government veterinary reference laboratory over a 20-year period to identify and investigate any patterns. We found a marked increase in testing from July 2008, primarily reflecting a broadening of the HeV clinical case definition. Peaks in submissions for testing, and visitations to the Government HeV website, were associated with reported equine incidents. Significantly differing between-year HeV detection rates in north and south Queensland suggest a fundamental difference in risk exposure between the two regions. The statistical association between HeV detection and stockhorse type may suggest that husbandry is a more important risk determinant than breed per se. The detection of HeV in horses with neither neurological nor respiratory signs poses a risk management challenge for attending veterinarians and laboratory staff, reinforcing animal health authority recommendations that appropriate risk management strategies be employed for all sick horses, and by anyone handling sick horses or associated biological samples.

Managing university records and documents in the world of governance, audit and risk: Case studies from South Africa and Malawi

There are enormous benefits for any organisation from practising sound records management. In the context of a public university, the importance of good records management includes: facilitating the achievement the university’s mandate; enhancing efficiency of the university; maintaining a reliable institutional memory; promoting trust; responding to an audit culture; enhancing university competitiveness; supporting the university’s fiduciary duty; demonstrating transparency and accountability; and fighting corruption. Records scholars and commentators posit that effective recordkeeping is an essential underpinning of good governance. Although there is a portrayal of positive correlation, recordkeeping struggles to get the same attention as that given to the governance. Evidence abounds of cases of neglect of recordkeeping in universities and other institutions in Sub-Saharan Africa. The apparent absence of sound recordkeeping provided a rationale for revisiting some universities in South Africa and Malawi in order to critically explore the place of recordkeeping in an organisation’s strategy in order to develop an alternative framework for managing records and documents in an era where good governance is a global agenda. The research is a collective case study in which multiple cases are used to critically explore the relationship between recordkeeping and governance. As qualitative research that belongs in the interpretive tradition of enquiry, it is not meant to suggest prescriptive solutions to general recordkeeping problems but rather to provide an understanding of the challenges and opportunities that arise in managing records and documents in the world of governance, audit and risk. That is: what goes on in the workplace; what are the problems; and what alternative approaches might address any existing problem situations. Research findings show that some institutions are making good use of their governance structures and other drivers for recordkeeping to put in place sound recordkeeping systems. Key governance structures and other drivers for recordkeeping identified include: laws and regulations; governing bodies; audit; risk; technology; reforms; and workplace culture. Other institutions are not managing their records and documents well despite efforts to improve their governance systems. They lack recordkeeping capacity. Areas that determine recordkeeping capacity include: availability of records management policy; capacity for digital records; availability of a records management unit; senior management support; level of education and training of records management staff; and systems and procedures for storage, retrieval and dispositions of records. Although this research reveals that the overall recordkeeping in the selected countries has slightly improved compared with the situation other researchers found a decade ago, it remains unsatisfactory and disjointed from governance. The study therefore proposes governance recordkeeping as an approach to managing records and documents in the world of governance, audit and risk. The governance recordkeeping viewpoint considers recordkeeping as a governance function that should be treated in the same manner as other governance functions such as audit and risk management. Additionally, recordkeeping and governance should be considered as symbiotic elements of a strategy. A strategy that neglects recordkeeping may not fulfil the organisation’s objectives effectively.

Determinantes das perturbações musculoesqueléticas nos trabalhadores de cuidados pessoais em residências de apoio ao idoso

Introdução: O enfermeiro especialista em reabilitação é o profissional com competências e conhecimentos para, após o diagnóstico, implementar e monitorizar os resultados dos programas de redução do risco das perturbações musculosqueléticas relacionadas com o trabalho (PME), junto dos trabalhadores de cuidados pessoais em residências de apoio ao idoso, avaliando e introduzindo no processo de prestação de cuidados os necessários ajustamentos, promovendo assim, práticas mais seguras e eficazes. Assim, o presente estudo centrou-se em identificar os determinantes das PME nestes trabalhadores e suas repercussões na saúde. Métodos: Estudo de natureza quantitativa, de tipologia transversal e descritivocorrelacional, com recurso a uma amostra não probabilística por conveniência, constituída por 120 indivíduos, na sua maioria do género feminino (95,8%) e com uma média de idades de 43,21 anos (Dp=10,812 anos). Como instrumento de colheita de dados utilizou-se o inquérito de saúde e trabalho (INSAT), aferido para este domínio de investigação. Resultados: Estes cuidadores formais manifestam défices de saúde com principal relevância para os relacionados com a mobilidade física e dor, quer pela existência de constrangimentos de natureza física e biomecânica, organizacional e psicossocial, bem como de natureza individual. Os problemas de saúde identificados por estes trabalhadores, resultantes das condições e características do trabalho foram: dores de costas (90,8%), dores musculares e articulares (82,5%), varizes (64,2%), dores de cabeça (49,2%) e ansiedade ou irritabilidade (47,5%). Ser do género feminino, ter idade entre os 49-58 anos, ser viúvo ou divorciado, ter doenças crónicas, tomar medicação e efetuar horário diurno, revelaram-se como determinantes percursores das PME assim como, a nível laboral, as características e os constrangimentos organizacionais e relacionais relacionados com o esforço físico, a intensidade e tempo de trabalho, as exigências emocionais, a insuficiência de autonomia e a má qualidade das relações sociais. Conclusão: Estes resultados apontam para a necessidade de desenvolvimento de estratégias preventivas das PME neste grupo profissional, onde é fundamental a intervenção do enfermeiro de reabilitação na implementação de programas de promoção da saúde, gestão do stresse e riscos psicossociais e formação profissional. Palavras-chave: Doenças musculosqueléticas; Enfermagem de Reabilitação; Saúde Ocupacional.

Aspectos do gerenciamento de riscos de tecnologia da informação nas empresas: um estudo de caso múltiplos

The information technology - IT- benefits have been more perceived during the last decades. Both IT and business managers are dealing with subjects like governance, IT-Business alignment, information security and others on their top priorities. Talking about governance, specifically, managers are facing it with a technical approach, that gives emphasis on protection against invasions, antivirus systems, access controls and others technical issues. The IT risk management, commonly, is faced under this approach, that means, has its importance reduced and delegated to IT Departments. On the last two decades, a new IT risk management perspective raised, bringing an holistic view of IT risk to the organization. According to this new perspective, the strategies formulation process should take into account the IT risks. With the growing of IT dependence on most of organizations, the necessity of a better comprehension about the subject becomes more clear. This work shows a study in three public organizations of the Pernambuco State that investigates how those organizations manage their IT risks. Structured interviews were made with IT managers, and later, analyzed and compared with conceptual categories found in the literature. The results shows that the IT risks culture and IT governance are weakly understood and implemented on those organizations, where there are not such an IT risk methodology formally defined, neither executed. In addition, most of practices suggested in the literature were found, even without an alignment with an IT risks management process

Report of the Working Group on Introductions and Transfers of Marine Organisms (WGITMO). 16-18 March 2016 Olbia, Italy

The 42th meeting of the ICES Working Group on Introductions and Transfers of Marine Organisms (WGITMO) was held in Olbia, Italy, 16–18 March 2016, with Anna Occhipinti-Ambrogi as host and Henn Ojaveer as chairperson. Representatives from 19 countries participated in the meeting. Attendants were from Belgium, Canada, Dennark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Lithuania, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Russia, Spain, Sweden, United Kingdom and United States. Sweden contributed by cor-respondence. The objectives of the meeting were to update information and discuss several aspects related to the introductions and transfers of non-indigenous aquatic species. Data and information management were two of the discussion topics of the meeting, with special focus on the better exploitation of the ‘Information system on aquatic non-indigenous and cryptogenic species’ (AquaNIS). The WGITMO also dedicated time for addressing the MSFD D2 issues: indicator on new non-indigenous species introduced by human activities, and opportunities and problems related to cross-regional comparison of non-indigenous species indicators. Preparation of the manuscript of the alert report on sea squirt Didemnum vexillum, which is to be published in ICES CRR series, was discussed and the steps to be taken to finalise the report were agreed. As usual, adequate time was devoted to discuss national reports, to exchange of information on the management of NIS and to review ongoing and planned research activities. The approach taken during the meeting facilitated presentations and discussions on the issues of relevance related to the Terms of References as well as on a few generic and strategically-important issues of general relevance to bioinvasions. The meeting began with a full-day joint meeting with the Working Group on Ballast and Other Ship Vectors (WGBOSV), which provided an opportunity to discuss and address issues of common interest, such as shipping and biofouling as introduction vectors. The proposed ICES demonstration advice on ‘Risk management of non-indigenous species associated with shipping in the Arctic’ was discussed, and edits were suggested for both the orientation of the demonstration advice as well as for the exact questions to be asked. Both working groups agreed that the practice of conducting back-to-back meetings with one joint day is useful and will continue in 2017. All Terms of References to be addressed for 2016 were discussed. For some Terms of Ref-erence, more detailed presentations were given, and a short overview of the information and subsequent discussion is provided herein at the end of each section. This report is structured so that each Term of Reference is dealt with in sequential order. The main body of the report contains summaries of the presentations and discussions with the more detailed documents being contained in the Annexes. WGITMO progressed each of the Terms of Reference by either completing the task or clearly identifying and agreeing on the inter-sessional activities required to still finalise the work in 2016. From 2017, WGITMO will be shifted to multi-annual management.

Semiparametric modeling of the spatial distribution of occupational accident risk in the casual labor market, Piracicaba, southeast Brazil

The objective of this study was to estimate the spatial distribution of work accident risk in the informal work market in the urban zone of an industrialized city in southeast Brazil and to examine concomitant effects of age, gender, and type of occupation after controlling for spatial risk variation. The basic methodology adopted was that of a population-based case-control study with particular interest focused on the spatial location of work. Cases were all casual workers in the city suffering work accidents during a one-year period; controls were selected from the source population of casual laborers by systematic random sampling of urban homes. The spatial distribution of work accidents was estimated via a semiparametric generalized additive model with a nonparametric bidimensional spline of the geographical coordinates of cases and controls as the nonlinear spatial component, and including age, gender, and occupation as linear predictive variables in the parametric component. We analyzed 1,918 cases and 2,245 controls between 1/11/2003 and 31/10/2004 in Piracicaba, Brazil. Areas of significantly high and low accident risk were identified in relation to mean risk in the study region (p < 0.01). Work accident risk for informal workers varied significantly in the study area. Significant age, gender, and occupational group effects on accident risk were identified after correcting for this spatial variation. A good understanding of high-risk groups and high-risk regions underpins the formulation of hypotheses concerning accident causality and the development of effective public accident prevention policies.

Sistemas de gerenciamento de bibliotecas: riscos decorrentes do processo de migração de dados

This work aims to analyze risks related to information technology (IT) in procedures related to data migration. This is done considering ALEPH, Integrated Libray System (ILS) that migrated data to the Library Module present in the software called Sistema Integrado de Gestão de Atividades Acadêmicas (SIGAA) at the Zila Mamede Central Library at the Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte (UFRN) in Natal/Brazil. The methodological procedure used was of a qualitative exploratory research with the realization of case study at the referred library in order to better understand this phenomenon. Data collection was able once there was use of a semi-structured interview that was applied with (11) subjects that are employed at the library as well as in the Technology Superintendence at UFRN. In order to examine data Content analysis as well as thematic review process was performed. After data migration the results of the interview were then linked to both analysis units and their system register with category correspondence. The main risks detected were: data destruction; data loss; data bank communication failure; user response delay; data inconsistency and duplicity. These elements point out implication and generate disorders that affect external and internal system users and lead to stress, work duplicity and hassles. Thus, some measures were taken related to risk management such as adequate planning, central management support, and pilot test simulations. For the advantages it has reduced of: risk, occurrence of problems and possible unforeseen costs, and allows achieving organizational objectives, among other. It is inferred therefore that the risks present in data bank conversion in libraries exist and some are predictable, however, it is seen that librarians do not know or ignore and are not very worried in the identification risks in data bank conversion, their acknowledge would minimize or even extinguish them. Another important aspect to consider is the existence of few empirical research that deal specifically with this subject and thus presenting the new of new approaches in order to promote better understanding of the matter in the corporate environment of the information units

Early Warning System Potential for Single Sourcing Risk Mitigation

Part 17: Risk Analysis

Quantifying the Resilience of an Urban Traffic-Electric Power Coupled System

Transportation system resilience has been the subject of several recent studies. To assess the resilience of a transportation network, however, it is essential to model its interactions with and reliance on other lifelines. In this work, a bi-level, mixed-integer, stochastic program is presented for quantifying the resilience of a coupled traffic-power network under a host of potential natural or anthropogenic hazard-impact scenarios. A two-layer network representation is employed that includes details of both systems. Interdependencies between the urban traffic and electric power distribution systems are captured through linking variables and logical constraints. The modeling approach was applied on a case study developed on a portion of the signalized traffic-power distribution system in southern Minneapolis. The results of the case study show the importance of explicitly considering interdependencies between critical infrastructures in transportation resilience estimation. The results also provide insights on lifeline performance from an alternative power perspective.

A influência da gestão do risco na negociação num incidente tático policial

O presente trabalho de investigação está subordinado ao tema “A Análise e a Avaliação do Risco”, intitulado “A influência da Gestão do Risco na Negociação num Incidente Tático Policial”. A gestão do risco é uma ferramenta que o comandante tem ao seu dispor para tomar decisões, procurando alternativas e estratégias para atuar e responder a um incidente com um risco aceitável e o mais baixo possível. A negociação assume, nos dias de hoje, uma forma privilegiada na resolução de um Incidente Tático Policial e, por isso, devido ao risco inerente neste tipo de operações, o estudo da gestão do risco revela-se importante para auxiliar o processo negocial na tomada de decisão e definição de estratégias para a resolução do mesmo. Neste contexto, desenvolvemos um estudo com base na questão de partida: “De que forma a análise e a avaliação do risco influenciam o processo negocial?” Desta maneira, esta investigação tem como objetivo explicar e descrever a relevância e a influência do estudo do risco e da ameaça na negociação num incidente, bem como a negociação como forma privilegiada de resolução. Em relação à metodologia, esta teve como base a análise documental sobre as premissas em estudo e a análise de entrevistas efetuadas ao Grupo de Intervenção de Operações Especiais, nomeadamente a negociadores e a comandantes da intervenção tática. Concluímos que com o estudo do risco, tendo este como base o adversário, o ambiente envolvente, a situação e tipo de Incidente Tático Policial, podemos influenciar, contribuir e auxiliar na definição dos meios e formas a utilizar no contacto comunicacional e estratégia de negociação. Deste modo, permite orientar se seguimos um caminho de forma a consciencializar o adversário das ações que está a desenvolver ou, se necessário, persuadi-lo de maneira a resolver o incidente sem recurso ao uso da força, realçando a importância da negociação como forma primária de resolução de incidentes críticos.

Management and outcome of cholesterol embolus identified in a diabetic retinopathy screening program

Purpose. We examined the incidence, management, and outcomes of patients known to be at high cardiovascular risk, and to assess whether specialist referral to an ophthalmic medical clinic is worthwhile. Methods. Patients in the East Birmingham area with cholesterolembolus who were identified on digital diabetic retinopathy screening over a 3-year period were referred to a specialist ophthalmic medicine clinic within Heart of England NHS Trust for management and investigation. Results. A total of 33 patients were referred for clinical management.(male:female = 22:11, mean age 72 years). A total of 28 patients were known to be receiving medication: 14 anti hypertensive therapy(42%), 19 aspirin (59%), and 21 statin (64%). A total of 18 patients had known cardiovascular disease, 10 of whom had received carotid stenting or coronary artery bypass surgery. Ten patients diagnosed with embolus required and consented to carotid Doppler studies. Six patients were confirmed with significant carotid stenosis and 2 (6%)of these patients required carotid endarterectomy surgery. Overall, 4patients died, a mortality rate of 12% over 3 years. Conclusions. Annual diabetic retinopathy screening provide sopportunistic identification of asymptomatic cholesterol emboli and provides an opportunity for review of medical management in the high-risk patient group with appropriate identification and referral for carotid stenosis surgery. A total of 11 patients were identified with sub optimal cardiovascular risk management: e.g., statin use.