953 resultados para What-if Analysis


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This research aims toward a better understanding of the organizational culture(s) of the judiciary in Switzerland by analysing what 'good justice' means nowadays in this country. It seeks to clarify whether, and to what extent, expectations of 'good justice' of judicial actors (judges without managerial experience) and of managerial actors (court managers) are similar and to describe possible managerial implications that may result from this. As judges are at the heart of the judicial organization and exert a strong influence on other groups of actors (Sullivan, Warren et al. 1994), the congruence of their expectations with those of court managers will be at the centre of the analysis. Additionally, referring to the conceptual worlds of Boltanski and Thévenaut (1991), we analyze how closely these expectations are to management-oriented values. We found that almost half of expectations are common to the two groups examined and the main quoted ones are compatible to new public management (NPM) concepts. On the other hand, those expectations shared exclusively by judges relate to the human side of justice, whereas those specific to court managers focus on the way justice functions.

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Salmonella is a bacterium commonly found in the intestines of humans and animals. It can also be found on raw meats, poultry, eggs and in unpasteurised milk. Salmonella food poisoning (Salmonellosis) is an illness that can occur if live Salmonella bacteria enter the body. The bacteria can attach to the cells lining the intestines where they produce toxins and attack the intestinal cells.

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The increasing number of bomb attacks involving improvised explosive devices, as well as the nature of the explosives, give rise to concern among safety and law enforcement agencies. The substances used in explosive charges are often everyday products diverted from their primary licit applications. Thus, reducing or limiting their accessibility for prevention purposes is difficult. Ammonium nitrate, employed in agriculture as a fertiliser, is used worldwide in small and large homemade bombs. Black powder, dedicated to hunting and shooting sports, is used illegally as a filling in pipe bombs causing extensive damage. If the main developments of instrumental techniques in explosive analysis have been constantly pushing the limits of detection, their actual contribution to the investigation of explosives in terms of source discrimination is limited. Forensic science has seen the emergence of a new technology, isotope ratio mass spectrometry (IRMS), that shows promising results. Its very first application in forensic science dates back to 1979. Liu et al. analysed cannabis plants coming from different countries [Liu et al. 1979]. This preliminary study highlighted its potential to discriminate specimens coming from different sources. Thirty years later, the keen interest in this new technology has given rise to a flourishing number of publications in forensic science. The countless applications of IRMS to a wide range of materials and substances attest to its success and suggest that the technique is ready to be used in forensic science. However, many studies are characterised by a lack of methodology and fundamental data. They have been undertaken in a top-down approach, applying this technique in an exploratory manner on a restricted sampling. This manner of procedure often does not allow the researcher to answer a number of questions, such as: do the specimens come from the same source, what do we mean by source or what is the inherent variability of a substance? The production of positive results has prevailed at the expense of forensic fundamentals. This research focused on the evaluation of the contribution of the information provided by isotopic analysis to the investigation of explosives. More specifically, this evaluation was based on a sampling of black powders and ammonium nitrate fertilisers coming from known sources. Not only has the methodology developed in this work enabled us to highlight crucial elements inherent to the methods themselves, but also to evaluate both the longitudinal and transversal variabilities of the information. First, the study of the variability of the profile over time was undertaken. Secondly, the variability of black powders and ammonium nitrate fertilisers within the same source and between different sources was evaluated. The contribution of this information to the investigation of explosives was then evaluated and discussed. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Le nombre croissant d'attentats à la bombe impliquant des engins explosifs artisanaux, ainsi que la nature des charges explosives, constituent une préoccupation majeure pour les autorités d'application de la loi et les organismes de sécurité. Les substances utilisées dans les charges explosives sont souvent des produits du quotidien, détournés de leurs applications licites. Par conséquent, réduire ou limiter l'accessibilité de ces produits dans un but de prévention est difficile. Le nitrate d'ammonium, employé dans l'agriculture comme engrais, est utilisé dans des petits et grands engins explosifs artisanaux. La poudre noire, initialement dédiée à la chasse et au tir sportif, est fréquemment utilisée comme charge explosive dans les pipe bombs, qui causent des dommages importants. Si les développements des techniques d'analyse des explosifs n'ont cessé de repousser les limites de détection, leur contribution réelle à l'investigation des explosifs est limitée en termes de discrimination de sources. Une nouvelle technologie qui donne des résultats prometteurs a fait son apparition en science forensique: la spectrométrie de masse à rapport isotopique (IRMS). Sa première application en science forensique remonte à 1979. Liu et al. ont analysé des plants de cannabis provenant de différents pays [Liu et al. 1979]. Cette étude préliminaire, basée sur quelques analyses, a mis en évidence le potentiel de l'IRMS à discriminer des spécimens provenant de sources différentes. Trente ans plus tard, l'intérêt marqué pour cette nouvelle technologie en science forensique se traduit par un nombre florissant de publications. Les innombrables applications de l'IRMS à une large gamme de matériaux et de substances attestent de son succès et suggèrent que la technique est prête à être utilisée en science forensique. Cependant, de nombreuses études sont caractérisées par un manque de méthodologie et de données fondamentales. Elles ont été menées sans définir les hypothèses de recherche et en appliquant cette technique de façon exploratoire sur un échantillonnage restreint. Cette manière de procéder ne permet souvent pas au chercheur de répondre à un certain nombre de questions, tels que: est-ce que deux spécimens proviennent de la même source, qu'entend-on par source ou encore quelle est l'intravariabilité d'une substance? La production de résultats positifs a prévalu au détriment des fondamentaux de science forensique. Cette recherche s'est attachée à évaluer la contribution réelle de l'information isotopique dans les investigations en matière d'explosifs. Plus particulièrement, cette évaluation s'est basée sur un échantillonnage constitué de poudres noires et d'engrais à base de nitrate d'ammonium provenant de sources connues. La méthodologie développée dans ce travail a permis non seulement de mettre en évidence des éléments cruciaux relatifs à la méthode d'analyse elle-même, mais également d'évaluer la variabilité de l'information isotopique d'un point de vue longitudinal et transversal. Dans un premier temps, l'évolution du profil en fonction du temps a été étudiée. Dans un second temps, la variabilité du profil des poudres noires et des engrais à base de nitrate d'ammonium au sein d'une même source et entre différentes sources a été évaluée. La contribution de cette information dans le cadre des investigations d'explosifs a ensuite été discutée et évaluée.

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Anopheles cruzii is a small sylvatic mosquito and primary human Plasmodium vector in Southern Brazil. The distribution of this bromeliad-breeding mosquito follows the Atlantic forest coastal distribution, where bromeliads are abundant. Morphological, genetic, and molecular polymorphisms among different populations have been reported and it has recently been suggested that An. cruzii is a complex of cryptic species. The aim of this work is to analyze the gene flow between different populations of An. cruzii collected in four localities within the geographic distribution range of the species, and to examine if An. cruzii is a complex of cryptic species. The genetic distances show that populations of the states of Santa Catarina, São Paulo, and Rio de Janeiro are genetically closer (0.032 to 0.083) than populations of Bahia (0.364 to 0.853) based on profiles from 10 distinct isoenzyme loci. The Fst was lower (0.077) when the Bahia population was excluded than when it was included (0.300) in the analyses. The inferred number of migrants per generation was 2.99 individuals among populations from the states of Santa Catarina, São Paulo, and Rio de Janeiro and 0.58 migrants per generation among all populations. Results suggest that An. cruzii is a complex of species and that the specimes of state of Bahia can be considered as belonging to a species that is distinct from other three closely-related populations studied.

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For doping control, analyses of samples are generally achieved in two steps: a rapid screening and, in the case of a positive result, a confirmatory analysis. A two-step methodology based on ultra-high-pressure liquid chromatography coupled to a quadrupole time-of-flight mass spectrometry (UHPLC-QTOF-MS) was developed to screen and confirm 103 doping agents from various classes (e.g., beta-blockers, stimulants, diuretics, and narcotics). The screening method was presented in a previous article as part I (i.e., Fast analysis of doping agents in urine by ultra-high-pressure liquid chromatography-quadrupole time-of-flight mass spectrometry. Part I: screening analysis). For the confirmatory method, basic, neutral and acidic compounds were extracted by a dedicated solid-phase extraction (SPE) in a 96-well plate format and detected by MS in the tandem mode to obtain precursor and characteristic product ions. The mass accuracy and the elemental composition of precursor and product ions were used for compound identification. After validation including matrix effect determination, the method was considered reliable to confirm suspect results without ambiguity according to the positivity criteria established by the World Anti-Doping Agency (WADA). Moreover, an isocratic method was developed to separate ephedrine from its isomer pseudoephedrine and cathine from phenylpropanolamine in a single run, what allowed their direct quantification in urine.

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Information about drugs and alcohol - what parents need to know: information for parents, carers and anyone who works with young people. About this leaflet This is one in a series of leaflets for parents, teachers and young people entitled Mental Health and Growing Up. These leaflets aim to provide practical, up-to-date information about mental health problems (emotional, behavioural and psychiatric disorders) that can affect children and young people. This leaflet offers practical advice for parents, teachers and carers who are worried that a young person is misusing drugs or alcohol. Why do I need to know about a young person using drugs or alcohol? Many young people smoke, drink alcohol and may try drugs. It is important you are aware of this and do not ignore it as a time when they are just having fun or experimenting. It doesnââ,‰"¢t take much for the young people to soon lose control and to need help to recover from this problem. How common is it? By the age of 16, up to half of young people have tried an illegal drug. Young people are trying drugs earlier and more are drinking alcohol. What are the different types of drugs which cause problems? The most commonly used, readily available and strongly addictive drugs are tobacco and alcohol. There are numerous others that can be addictive. Alcohol and cannabis are sometimes seen as ââ,¬Ëogatewayââ,‰"¢ drugs that lead to the world of other drugs like cocaine and heroin. Drugs are also classed as ââ,¬Ëolegalââ,‰"¢ andââ,¬Ëoillegalââ,‰"¢. The obviously illegal drugs include cannabis (hash), speed (amphetamines), ecstasy (E), cocaine and heroin. Using ââ,¬Ëolegalââ,‰"¢ drugs (like cigarettes, alcohol, petrol, glue) does not mean they are safe or allowed to be misused. It just means they may be bought or sold for specific purposes and are limited to use by specific age groups. There are clear laws regarding alcohol and young people. For more detailed information on various drugs, their side-effects and the law, see ââ,¬ËoFurther Informationââ,‰"¢ at the end of the factsheet. Why do young people use drugs or alcohol? Young people may try or use drugs or alcohol for various reasons. They may do it for fun, because they are curious, or to be like their friends. Some are experimenting with the feeling of intoxication. Sometimes they use it to cope with difficult situations or feelings of worry and low mood. A young person is more likely to try or use drugs or alcohol if they hang out or stay with friends or family who use them. What can be the problems related to using drugs or alcohol? Drugs and alcohol can have different effects on different people. In young people especially the effects can be unpredictable and potentially dangerous. Even medications for sleep or painkillers can be addictive and harmful if not used the way they are prescribed by a doctor. Drugs and alcohol can damage health. Sharing needles or equipment can cause serious infections, such as HIV and hepatitis. Accidents, arguments and fights are more likely after drinking and drug use. Young people are more likely to engage in unprotected sex when using drugs. Using drugs can lead to serious mental illnesses, such as psychosis and depression. When does it become addiction or problem? It is very difficult to know when exactly using drugs or alcohol is more than just ââ,¬Ëocasualââ,‰"¢. Addiction becomes more obvious when the young person spends most of their time thinking about, looking for or using drugs. Drugs or alcohol then become the focus of the young personââ,‰"¢s life. They ignore their usual work, such as not doing their schoolwork, or stop doing their usual hobbies/sports such as dancing or football. How do I know if there is a problem or addiction? Occasional use can be very difficult to detect. If the young person is using on a regular basis, their behaviour often changes. Look for signs such as: ïâ?s§ unexplained moodiness ïâ?s§ behaviour that is ââ,¬Ëoout of character' ïâ?s§ loss of interest in school or friends ïâ?s§ unexplained loss of clothes or money ïâ?s§ unusual smells and items like silver foil, needle covers. Remember, the above changes can also mean other problems, such as depression, rather than using drugs. What do I do if I am worried? If you suspect young person is using drugs, remember some general rules. ïâ?s§ Pay attention to what the child is doing, including schoolwork, friends and leisure time. ïâ?s§ Learn about the effects of alcohol and drugs (see websites listed below). ïâ?s§ Listen to what the child says about alcohol and drugs, and talk about it with them. ïâ?s§ Encourage the young person to be informed and responsible about drugs and alcohol. ïâ?s§ Talk to other parents, friends or teachers about drugs - the facts and your fears and seek help. If someone in the family or close friend is using drugs or alcohol, it is important that they seek help too. It may be hard to expect the young person to give up, especially if a parent or carer is using it too. My child is abusing drugs. What do I do? ïâ?s§ If your child is using drugs or alcohol, seek help. ïâ?s§ Do stay calm and make sure of facts. ïâ?s§ Don't give up on them, get into long debates or arguments when they are drunk, stoned or high. ïâ?s§ Donââ,‰"¢t be angry or blame themââ,‰?othey need your help and trust to make journey of recovery. Where can I get help? You can talk in confidence to a professional like your GP or practice nurse, a local drug project or your local child and adolescent mental health. They can refer your child to relevant services and they will be able to offer you advice and support. You may also be able to seek help through a school nurse, teacher or social worker. You can find this information from your local area telephone book or council website, or ask for the address from your health centre. [For the full factsheet, click on the link above]This resource was contributed by The National Documentation Centre on Drug Use.

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Understanding the genomic basis of evolutionary adaptation requires insight into the molecular basis underlying phenotypic variation. However, even changes in molecular pathways associated with extreme variation, gains and losses of specific phenotypes, remain largely uncharacterized. Here, we investigate the large interspecific differences in the ability to survive infection by parasitoids across 11 Drosophila species and identify genomic changes associated with gains and losses of parasitoid resistance. We show that a cellular immune defense, encapsulation, and the production of a specialized blood cell, lamellocytes, are restricted to a sublineage of Drosophila, but that encapsulation is absent in one species of this sublineage, Drosophila sechellia. Our comparative analyses of hemopoiesis pathway genes and of genes differentially expressed during the encapsulation response revealed that hemopoiesis-associated genes are highly conserved and present in all species independently of their resistance. In contrast, 11 genes that are differentially expressed during the response to parasitoids are novel genes, specific to the Drosophila sublineage capable of lamellocyte-mediated encapsulation. These novel genes, which are predominantly expressed in hemocytes, arose via duplications, whereby five of them also showed signatures of positive selection, as expected if they were recruited for new functions. Three of these novel genes further showed large-scale and presumably loss-of-function sequence changes in D. sechellia, consistent with the loss of resistance in this species. In combination, these convergent lines of evidence suggest that co-option of duplicated genes in existing pathways and subsequent neofunctionalization are likely to have contributed to the evolution of the lamellocyte-mediated encapsulation in Drosophila.

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The prevalence of obesity is rapidly increasing in older adults. Information is required about what interventions are effective in reducing obesity and influencing health outcomes in this age group. Thirteen databases were searched, earliest date 1966 to December 2008, including Medline, CINAHL, PsycINFO, the Cochrane database and EMBASE.

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Purpose: the prevalence of obesity is rapidly increasing in older adults. Information is required about what interventions are effective in reducing obesity and influencing health outcomes in this age group. Design: systematic review and meta-analysis. Data sources: thirteen databases were searched, earliest date 1966 to December 2008, including Medline, CINAHL, PsycINFO, the Cochrane database and EMBASE. Study selection: we included studies with participants�۪ mean age 60 years and mean body mass index 30 kg/m2, with outcomes at a minimum of 1 year. Data were independently extracted by two reviewers and differences resolved by consensus. Data extraction: nine eligible trials were included. Study interventions targeted diet, physical activity and mixed approaches. Populations included patients with coronary artery disease, diabetes mellitus and osteoarthritis. Results: meta-analysis (seven studies) demonstrated a modest but significant weight loss of 3.0 kg [95% confidence interval (CI) 5.1���0.9] at 1 year. Total cholesterol (four studies) did not show a significant change: ���0.36 mmol/l (95% CI ���0.75 to 0.04). There was no significant change in high-density lipoprotein, low-density lipoprotein or triglycerides. In one study, recurrence of hypertension or cardiovascular events was significantly reduced (hazard ratio 0.65, 95% CI 0.50���0.85). Six-minute walk test did not significantly change in one study. Health-related quality of life significantly improved in one study but did not improve in a second study. Conclusions: although modest weight reductions were observed, there is a lack of high-quality evidence to support the efficacy of weight loss programmes in older people. ��Keywords: obesity, older, weight loss, meta-analysis, elderly, systematic review

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Scanty data are available on the incidence (i.e., the absolute risk) of second cancers of the head and neck (HN) and its pattern with age. We investigated this issue using data from a multicentric study of 13 population-based cancer registries from Europe, Canada, Australia and Singapore for the years 1943-2000. A total of 99,257 patients had a first primary HN cancer (15,985 tongue, 22,378 mouth, 20,758 pharyngeal, and 40,190 laryngeal cancer), contributing to 489,855 person-years of follow-up. A total of 1,294 of the patients (1.3%) were diagnosed with second HN cancers (342 tongue, 345 mouth, 418 pharynx and 189 larynx). Male incidence rates of first HN cancer steeply increased from 0.68/100,000 at age 30-34 to 46.2/100,000 at age 70-74, and leveled off at older age; female incidence increased from 0.50/100,000 at age 30-34 to 16.5/100,000 at age 80-84. However, age-specific incidence of second HN cancers after a first HN cancer in men was around 200-300/100,000 between age 40-44 and age 70-74 and tended to decline at subsequent ages (150/100,000 at age 80-84); in women, incidence of second HN cancers was around 200-300/100,000 between age 45-49 and 80-84. The patterns of age-specific incidence were consistent for different subsites of second HN cancer and sexes; moreover, they were similar for age-specific incidence of first primary HN cancer in patients who subsequently developed a second HN cancer. The incidence of second HN cancers does not increase with age, but remains constant, or if anything, decreases with advancing age.

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El TFC consisteix en l'anàlisi i disseny d'un sistema que permeti administrar les regles d'una organització. Les regles de negoci són importants per a les empreses, ja que descriuen com aquestes realitzen les seves activitats. En aquest TFC es proposa un sistema que permetrà gestionar les esmentades regles.

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Female fecundity increases with body size in a variety of insects, but it is unknown if this generalization applies for kissing bugs. In this study, we evaluate whether gonad weight in the bloodsucking insect Mepraia spinolai correlates with body size, or determined by nutrition or developmental time. We found that the investment on reproductive tissue correlates positively and significantly with body size and with the amount of ingested blood by female insects along their lifespan. Total molting time did not significantly affect gonad weight. We suggest that under optimal feeding conditions M. spinolai females could express their maximum reproductive potential.

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Aquest treball pretén esbrinar fins a quin punt se segueixen els criteris teòrics establerts pels autors catalans del Renaixement en la literatura catalana de ficció del segle XVI. Per examinar l'adequació als models proposats pels humanistes he triat una obra anònima de caràcter paròdic escrita en forma d'epístoles entre dos llauradors de l'Horta de València, Les estil·lades y amoroses lletres trameses per Berthomeu Sirlot a la sua senyora, y per ella a ell. El procediment de treball consistirà a analitzar com els teòrics del Renaixement de l'àrea catalanoparlant van interpretar i assimilar en la seva obra alguns dels conceptes més importants de les poètiques i les retòriques dels clàssics grecs i llatins (els principis d'imitació, decòrum, harmonia i ordre), en aquest cas Aristòtil i Horaci, i si l'autor anònim de Les estil·lades y amoroses lletres els va tenir en compte a l'hora de compondre la seva obra. A la vegada, en tractar-se d'una paròdia satírica amb clara voluntat humorística, aquesta anàlisi també pot donar compte de quina opinió tenien els intel·lectuals catalans del Renaixement sobre la ficció i l'humor.

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"If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat" (SunTzu the Art of War, 544-496 BC). Although written for the managing of conflicts and winning clear victories, this basic guideline can be directly transferred to our battle against apicomplexan parasites and how to focus future basic research in order to transfer the gained knowledge to a therapeutic intervention stratey. Over the last two decades the establishment of several key-technologies, by different groups working on Toxoplasma gondii, made this important human pathogen accessible to modern approaches in molecular cell biology. In fact more and more researchers get attracted to this easy accessible model organism to study specific biological questions, unique to apicomplexans. This fascinating, unique biology might provide us with new therapeutic options in our battle against apicomplexan parasites by finding its Achilles' heel. In this article we argue that in the absence of a powerful high throughput technology for the characterisation of essential gene of interests a coordinated effort should be undertaken to convert our knowledge of the genome into one of the phenome.

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In an earlier investigation (Burger et al., 2000) five sediment cores near the RodriguesTriple Junction in the Indian Ocean were studied applying classical statistical methods(fuzzy c-means clustering, linear mixing model, principal component analysis) for theextraction of endmembers and evaluating the spatial and temporal variation ofgeochemical signals. Three main factors of sedimentation were expected by the marinegeologists: a volcano-genetic, a hydro-hydrothermal and an ultra-basic factor. Thedisplay of fuzzy membership values and/or factor scores versus depth providedconsistent results for two factors only; the ultra-basic component could not beidentified. The reason for this may be that only traditional statistical methods wereapplied, i.e. the untransformed components were used and the cosine-theta coefficient assimilarity measure.During the last decade considerable progress in compositional data analysis was madeand many case studies were published using new tools for exploratory analysis of thesedata. Therefore it makes sense to check if the application of suitable data transformations,reduction of the D-part simplex to two or three factors and visualinterpretation of the factor scores would lead to a revision of earlier results and toanswers to open questions . In this paper we follow the lines of a paper of R. Tolosana-Delgado et al. (2005) starting with a problem-oriented interpretation of the biplotscattergram, extracting compositional factors, ilr-transformation of the components andvisualization of the factor scores in a spatial context: The compositional factors will beplotted versus depth (time) of the core samples in order to facilitate the identification ofthe expected sources of the sedimentary process.Kew words: compositional data analysis, biplot, deep sea sediments