Prediction of the economic cost of individual long-term care in the Spanish population

Pensions together with savings and investments during active life are key elements of retirement planning. Motivation for personal choices about the standard of living, bequest and the replacement ratio of pension with respect to last salary income must be considered. This research contributes to the financial planning by helping to quantify long-term care economic needs. We estimate life expectancy from retirement age onwards. The economic cost of care per unit of service is linked to the expected time of needed care and the intensity of required services. The expected individual cost of long-term care from an onset of dependence is estimated separately for men and women. Assumptions on the mortality of the dependent people compared to the general population are introduced. Parameters defining eligibility for various forms of coverage by the universal public social care of the welfare system are addressed. The impact of the intensity of social services on individual predictions is assessed, and a partial coverage by standard private insurance products is also explored. Data were collected by the Spanish Institute of Statistics in two surveys conducted on the general Spanish population in 1999 and in 2008. Official mortality records and life table trends were used to create realistic scenarios for longevity. We find empirical evidence that the public long-term care system in Spain effectively mitigates the risk of incurring huge lifetime costs. We also find that the most vulnerable categories are citizens with moderate disabilities that do not qualify to obtain public social care support. In the Spanish case, the trends between 1999 and 2008 need to be further explored.

Aproximació a la figura dels Business Angels

Els business angels són persones físiques que inverteixen una part dels seus diners en empreses joves, tot just acabades de crear, en alguns casos fins i tot ajuden a crear-les. El nom d’àngels té el seu origen en els rics filantrops de Nova York que finançaven les obres que s’estrenaven a Broadway. Aquests filantrops invertien els seus diners en una obra de teatre, pel plaer de contribuir a la cultura, molt sovint no arribaven a recuperar mai aquests diners. Els business angels, no són filantrops, inverteixen esperant guanyar diners, però al igual que els àngels de Broadway, els mou alguna cosa més que els diners, ja que està àmpliament documentat que darrera d’aquestes inversions hi ha també raons no financeres, com ara fomentar l’esperit emprenedor o fins i tot la cerca de diversió. Podríem dir que el terme “business angel” es va encunyar a principis dels 80 als EUA, per tant aviat farà 30 anys, no obstant, encara avui, la majoria de catalans no coneixen el significat d’aquest terme. A Catalunya i Espanya anem terriblement retardats en l’estudi i la promoció d’aquesta figura en relació a països com els EUA i el Regne Unit, però també massa enrera en relació a països com Finlàndia, Suècia, Noruega i Alemanya. L’objectiu d’aquest treball és doncs oferir una complerta aproximació a aquesta figura del business angel, una figura que entenem clau en el desenvolupament empresarial i per tant una figura que cal potenciar a tots els nivells. Per tal de contextualitzar aquesta important figura, el treball parteix de l’anàlisi de la relació existent entre emprenedoria i creixement econòmic, s’endinsa després en el capital risc, per presentar finalment qui és i que fa el business angel. El treball intenta també mostrar l’abús d’usos i la inconsistència de les definicions que es donen del terme “business angel” i per tant la gran confusió que tot això genera.

Is it redistribution or centralization? On the determinants of government investment in infrastructure

The dilemma efficiency versus equity, together with political partisan interests, has received increasing attention to explain the territorial allocation of investments. However, centralization intended to introduce or reinforce hierarchization in the political system has not been object as of now of empirical analysis. Our main contribution to the literature is providing evidence that meta-political objectives related to the ordering of political power and administration influence regional investment. In this way, we find evidence that network mode’s (roads and railways) investment programs are influenced by the centralization strategy of investing near to the political capital, while investment effort in no-network modes (airports and ports) appears to be positively related to distance. Since investment in surface transportation infrastructures is much higher than that in airports and ports, and taken into account that regions surrounding the political capital are poorer than the average, we suggest that centralization rather than redistribution has been the driver for the concentration of public investment on these regions.

Use of the 2,3-diacyl-trehalose and the purified protein derivative in the serodiagnosis of tuberculosis in AIDS

The effect of the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection on IgG production against purified protein derivative (PPD) and 2,3-diacil-trehalose (SL-IV) was investigated by an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) test. Comparison between the antigens showed that immunocompetent patients produce preferentially antibodies to SL-IV than to PPD (73.3% versus 63.3%). Combination of these results showed an increase of the sensitivity to 80%, which decreased over the spectrum of immunodepression caused by HIV. In the tuberculous HIV seropositive group the sensitivities of SL-IV and PPD were 36.4% versus 40% and 0% versus 22.2% in the tuberculosis/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (TB/AIDS) group. Combination of these results gave respectively 54.5% and 20%, showing that serological tests have limited value for diagnosis of tuberculosis in HIV infected patients. High antibody levels were observed in HIV seropositive asymptomatic group, but only two individuals were positive for both antigens. In the follow up, one of them developed tuberculous lymphadenitis, indicating that further work is needed to access the value of serological tests in predicting tuberculosis in HIV infected individuals.

Accounting conservatism and firm investment efficiency

Conservatism, through the timelier recognition of losses in the income statement, is expected to increase firm investment efficiency through three main channels: (1) by decreasing the adverse effect of information asymmetries between outside equity holders and managers, facilitating the monitoring of managerial investment decisions; (2) by increasing managerial incentives to abandon poorly performing projects earlier and to undertake fewer negative net present-value investments; and (3) by facilitating the access to external financing at lower cost. Using a large US sample for the period 1990-2007 we find a negative association between conservatism and measures of over- and under- investment, and a positive association between conservatism and future profitability. This is consistent with firms reporting more conservative numbers investing more efficiently and in more profitable projects. Our results add to a growing stream of literature suggesting that eliminating conservatism from accounting regulatory frameworks may lead to undesirable economic consequences.

New trends in world wine consumption and its impact on the Spanish wineries during the second half of the twentieth century

The main goal of this research is explain the impact of the new trends of wine consumption, and the way these enterprises adapted to the circumstances. The hypothesis is that the Spanish companies had to start a deep and traumatic restructuring process, with the aim of surviving adequately in the changeable wine national and international markets. Heavy technological investments were made, with serious finance problems, during the eighties and nineties. We will see this from two specific cases, the Cooperatives "San Isidro" and "Rosario", located in the Region of Murcia, in the Spanish southeast.

Genomik und personalisierte Medizin [Genomics and personalized medicine].

Personalized medicine has a substantial potential to transform the way diseases will be predicted, prevented and treated. The field will greatly benefit from novel DNA sequencing technologies, in particular commoditization of individual whole genome sequencing. This evolution cannot be stopped, and the medical and scientific community, as well as the society at large, have the responsibility to anticipate the expected benefits from this revolution, but also the potential risks associated with it. Massive investments will be needed for the potential of personalized medicine to be realized, and for the field to come to maturity. In particular, a paradigm change in the way clinical research is done is needed. Switzerland and its Western part pro-actively anticipate these changes.

Short term evolution of a highly transmissible methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus clone (ST228) in a tertiary care hospital.

Staphylococcus aureus is recognized as one of the major human pathogens and is by far one of the most common nosocomial organisms. The genetic basis for the emergence of highly epidemic strains remains mysterious. Studying the microevolution of the different clones of S. aureus is essential for identifying the forces driving pathogen emergence and spread. The aim of the present study was to determine the genetic changes characterizing a lineage belonging to the South German clone (ST228) that spread over ten years in a tertiary care hospital in Switzerland. For this reason, we compared the whole genome of eight isolates recovered between 2001 and 2008 at the Lausanne hospital. The genetic comparison of these isolates revealed that their genomes are extremely closely related. Yet, a few more important genetic changes, such as the replacement of a plasmid, the loss of large fragments of DNA, or the insertion of transposases, were observed. These transfers of mobile genetic elements shaped the evolution of the ST228 lineage that spread within the Lausanne hospital. Nevertheless, although the strains analyzed differed in their dynamics, we have not been able to link a particular genetic element with spreading success. Finally, the present study showed that new sequencing technologies improve considerably the quality and quantity of information obtained for a single strain; but this information is still difficult to interpret and important investments are required for the technology to become accessible for routine investigations.

Multiple isolates from Aids patients: aspects of an analysis by a genotypic marker and antimicrobial susceptibilities variations

Twenty-one Mycobacterium avium multisolates, from ten human immunodeficiency virus-infected patients, were typed by restriction fragment length polymorphism using as marker the IS1245 and characterized by minimum inhibitory concentration for nine different antibiotics. Two out of four patients harboring multisolates with different fingerprint profile, were therefore considered as having a polyclonal infection, since their isolates were taken from sterile site. This result confirms that polyclonal infection caused by M. avium occurs with a nonnegligenciable frequency. Analyzing the multisolates susceptibility profile of each patient it was observed that most of them were infected with strains having appreciably different antimicrobial susceptibility patterns, no matter what the genotypic pattern of the strains was. These results have strong implication for the treatment of the patients.

Regulatory federalism in network industries

Report for the scientific sojourn at the UC Berkeley, USA, from march until july 2008. This document starts by surveying the literature on economic federalism and relating it to network industries. The insights and some new developments (which focus on the role of interjurisdictional externalities, multiple objectives and investment incentives) are used to analyze regulatory arrangements in telecommunications and energy in the EU and the US. In the long history of vertically integrated monopolies in telecommunications and energy, there was a historical trend to move regulation up in the vertical structure of government, at least form the local level to the state or nation-state level. This move alleviated the pressure on regulators to renege on the commitment not to expropriate sunk investments, although it did not eliminate the practice of taxation by regulation that was the result of multiple interest group action. Although central or federal policy making is more focused and especialized and makes it difficult for more interest groups to organize, it is not clear that under all conditions central powers will not be associated with underinvestment. When technology makes the introduction of competition in some segments possible, the possibilities for organizing the institutional architechture of regulation expand. The central level may focus on structural regulation and the location of behavioral regulation of the remaining monopolists may be resolved in a cooperative way or concentrated at the level where the relevant spillovers are internalized.

Non-tuberculous mycobacteria I: one year clinical isolates identification in Tertiary Hospital Aids Reference Center, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, in pre highly active antiretroviral therapy era

The aim of this study was to determine the prevalence of non-tuberculous mycobacteria (NTM) isolates at University Hospital, Reference Center for Aids in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, during one year. We used standard biochemical tests for species identification and IS1245 PCR amplification was applied as a Mycobacterium avium specific identification marker. Four hundred and four specimens from 233 patients yielded acid-fast bacilli growth. M. tuberculosis was identified in 85% of the patients and NTM in 15%. NTM disseminated infection was a common event correlated with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infected patients and only in HIV negative patients the source of NTM was non sterile site. M. avium complex (MAC) was biochemically identified in 57.8% (49/83) of NTM isolates, most of them from sterile sites (75.5%), and in 94% (46/49) the IS 1245 marker specific for M. avium was present. Twenty NTM strains showed a MAC biochemical pattern with the exception of a urease-positive (99% of MAC are urease-negative), however IS1245 was detected in 96% of the strains leading to their identification as M. avium. In this group differences in NTM source was not significant. The second most frequently isolated NTM was identified as M. scrofulaceum (7.2%), followed by M. terrae (3.6%), M. gordonae (2.4%), M. chelonae (1.2%), M. fortuitum (1.2%) and one strain which could not be identified. All were IS1245 negative except for one strain identified as M. scrofulaceum. It is interesting to note that non-sterile sites were the major source of these isolates (92.8%). Our finding indicated that M. avium is still the major atypical species among in the MAC isolates recovered from Brazilian Aids patients without highty active antiretroviral therapy schema. Some discrepancies were seen between the identification methods and further investigations must be done to better characterize NTM isolates using other phenotypic and genotypic methods.

L'exploitation des eaux souterraines en Syrie centrale : construction de diagnostics et politiques d'intervention

Syrian dry areas have been for several millennia a place of interaction between human populations and the environment. If environmental constraints and heterogeneity condition the human occupation and exploitation of resources, socio-political, economic and historical elements play a fundamental role. Since the late 1980s, Syrian dry areas are viewed as suffering a serious water crisis, due to groundwater overdraft. The Syrian administration and international development agencies believe that groundwater overexploitation is also leading to a decline of agricultural activities and to poverty increase. Action is thus required to address these problems.However, the overexploitation diagnosis needs to be reviewed. The overexploitation discourse appears in the context of Syria's opening to international organizations and to the market economy. It echoes the international discourse of "global water crisis". The diagnosis is based on national indicators recycling old Soviet data that has not been updated. In the post-Soviet era, the Syrian national water policy seems to abandon large surface water irrigation projects in favor of a strategy of water use rationalization and groundwater conservation in crisis regions, especially in the district of Salamieh.This groundwater conservation policy has a number of inconsistencies. It is justified for the administration and also probably for international donors, since it responds to an indisputable environmental emergency. However, efforts to conserve water are anecdotal or even counterproductive. The water conservation policy appears a posteriori as an extension of the national policy of food self-sufficiency. The dominant interpretation of overexploitation, and more generally of the water crisis, prevents any controversary approach of the status of resources and of the agricultural system in general and thus destroys any attempt to discuss alternatives with respect to groundwater management, allocation, and their inclusion in development programs.A revisited diagnosis of the situation needs to take into account spatial and temporal dimensions of the groundwater exploitation and to analyze the co-evolution of hydrogeological and agricultural systems. It should highlight the adjustments adopted to cope with environmental and economic variability, changes of water availability and regulatory measures enforcements. These elements play an important role for water availability and for the spatial, temporal, sectoral allocation of water resource. The groundwater exploitation in the last century has obviously had an impact on the environment, but the changes are not necessarily catastrophic.The current groundwater use in central Syria increases the uncertainty by reducing the ability of aquifers to buffer climatic changes. However, the climatic factor is not the only source of uncertainty. The high volatility of commodity prices, fuel, land and water, depending on the market but also on the will (and capacity) of the Syrian State to preserve social peace is a strong source of uncertainty. The research should consider the whole range of possibilities and propose alternatives that take into consideration the risks they imply for the water users, the political will to support or not the local access to water - thus involving a redefinition of the economic and social objectives - and finally the ability of international organizations to reconsider pre-established diagnoses.

Chagas disease: current epidemiological trends after the interruption of vectorial and transfusional transmission in the Southern Cone countries

Chagas disease, named after Carlos Chagas who first described it in 1909, exists only on the American Continent. It is caused by a parasite, Trypanosoma cruzi, transmitted to humans by blood-sucking triatomine bugs and by blood transfusion. Chagas disease has two successive phases, acute and chronic. The acute phase lasts 6 to 8 weeks. After several years of starting the chronic phase, 20% to 35% of the infected individuals, depending on the geographical area will develop irreversible lesions of the autonomous nervous system in the heart, esophagus, colon and the peripheral nervous system. Data on the prevalence and distribution of Chagas disease improved in quality during the 1980's as a result of the demographically representative cross-sectional studies carried out in countries where accurate information was not available. A group of experts met in Brasília in 1979 and devised standard protocols to carry out countrywide prevalence studies on human T. cruzi infection and triatomine house infestation. Thanks to a coordinated multi-country program in the Southern Cone countries the transmission of Chagas disease by vectors and by blood transfusion has been interrupted in Uruguay in1997, in Chile in 1999, and in 8 of the 12 endemic states of Brazil in 2000 and so the incidence of new infections by T. cruzi in the whole continent has decreased by 70%. Similar control multi-country initiatives have been launched in the Andean countries and in Central America and rapid progress has been recorded to ensure the interruption of the transmission of Chagas disease by 2005 as requested by a Resolution of the World Health Assembly approved in 1998. The cost-benefit analysis of the investments of the vector control program in Brazil indicate that there are savings of US$17 in medical care and disabilities for each dollar spent on prevention, showing that the program is a health investment with good return. Since the inception in 1979 of the Steering Committee on Chagas Disease of the Special Program for Research and Training in Tropical Diseases of the World Health Organization (TDR), the objective was set to promote and finance research aimed at the development of new methods and tools to control this disease. The well known research institutions in Latin America were the key elements of a world wide network of laboratories that received - on a competitive basis - financial support for projects in line with the priorities established. It is presented the time line of the different milestones that were answering successively and logically the outstanding scientific questions identified by the Scientific Working Group in 1978 and that influenced the development and industrial production of practical solutions for diagnosis of the infection and disease control.

Antimicrobial susceptibility determined by the E test, Löwenstein-Jensen proportion, and DNA sequencing methods among Mycobacterium tuberculosis isolates discrepancies, preliminary results

Mycobacterium tuberculosis strains resistant to streptomycin (SM), isoniazid (INH), and/or rifampin (RIF) as determined by the conventional Löwenstein-Jensen proportion method (LJPM) were compared with the E test, a minimum inhibitory concentration susceptibility method. Discrepant isolates were further evaluated by BACTEC and by DNA sequence analyses for mutations in genes most often associated with resistance to these drugs (rpsL, katG, inhA, and rpoB). Preliminary discordant E test results were seen in 75% of isolates resistant to SM and in 11% to INH. Discordance improved for these two drugs (63%) for SM and none for INH when isolates were re-tested but worsened for RIF (30%). Despite good agreement between phenotypic results and sequencing analyses, wild type profiles were detected on resistant strains mainly for SM and INH. It should be aware that susceptible isolates according to molecular methods might contain other mechanisms of resistance. Although reproducibility of the LJPM susceptibility method has been established, variable E test results for some M. tuberculosis isolates poses questions regarding its reproducibility particularly the impact of E test performance which may vary among laboratories despite adherence to recommended protocols. Further studies must be done to enlarge the evaluated samples and looked possible mutations outside of the hot spot sequenced gene among discrepant strains.

Mycobacterium avium restriction fragment lenght polymorphism-IS IS1245 and the simple double repetitive element polymerase chain reaction typing method to screen genetic diversity in Brazilian strains

Simple double repetitive element polymerase chain reaction (MaDRE-PCR) and Pvu II-IS1245 restriction fragment length polymorphism (RFLP) typing methods were used to type 41 Mycobacterium avium isolates obtained from 14 Aids inpatients and 10 environment and animals specimens identified among 53 mycobacteria isolated from 237 food, chicken, and pig. All environmental and animals strains showed orphan patterns by both methods. By MaDRE-PCR four patients, with multiple isolates, showed different patterns, suggesting polyclonal infection that was confirmed by RFLP in two of them. This first evaluation of MaDRE-PCR on Brazilian M. avium strains demonstrated that the method seems to be useful as simple and less expensive typing method for screening genetic diversity in M. avium strains on selected epidemiological studies, although with limitation on analysis identical patterns except for one band.