An improved approach for predicting the distribution of rare and endangered species from occurrence and pseudo-absence data

1. Few examples of habitat-modelling studies of rare and endangered species exist in the literature, although from a conservation perspective predicting their distribution would prove particularly useful. Paucity of data and lack of valid absences are the probable reasons for this shortcoming. Analytic solutions to accommodate the lack of absence include the ecological niche factor analysis (ENFA) and the use of generalized linear models (GLM) with simulated pseudo-absences. 2. In this study we tested a new approach to generating pseudo-absences, based on a preliminary ENFA habitat suitability (HS) map, for the endangered species Eryngium alpinum. This method of generating pseudo-absences was compared with two others: (i) use of a GLM with pseudo-absences generated totally at random, and (ii) use of an ENFA only. 3. The influence of two different spatial resolutions (i.e. grain) was also assessed for tackling the dilemma of quality (grain) vs. quantity (number of occurrences). Each combination of the three above-mentioned methods with the two grains generated a distinct HS map. 4. Four evaluation measures were used for comparing these HS maps: total deviance explained, best kappa, Gini coefficient and minimal predicted area (MPA). The last is a new evaluation criterion proposed in this study. 5. Results showed that (i) GLM models using ENFA-weighted pseudo-absence provide better results, except for the MPA value, and that (ii) quality (spatial resolution and locational accuracy) of the data appears to be more important than quantity (number of occurrences). Furthermore, the proposed MPA value is suggested as a useful measure of model evaluation when used to complement classical statistical measures. 6. Synthesis and applications. We suggest that the use of ENFA-weighted pseudo-absence is a possible way to enhance the quality of GLM-based potential distribution maps and that data quality (i.e. spatial resolution) prevails over quantity (i.e. number of data). Increased accuracy of potential distribution maps could help to define better suitable areas for species protection and reintroduction.

An epidemiological study of dental agenesis in a primary health area in Spain: estimated prevalence and associated factors

Objectives: To evaluate the prevalence of dental agenesis and its possible association with other developmental dental anomalies and systemic entities. Setting and Sample Population: Descriptive transversal study, for which 1518 clinical records, of patients visited by the Odontological Service of the Primary Health Centre of Cassà de la Selva (Girona-Spain) between December 2002 and February 2006 were reviewed. The data were recorded in relation to the oral and dental anomalies and the associated systemic entities, between the ones referred as concomitant in literature. Results: Values of 9.48% (7.25% excluding the third molars) for dental agenesis and 0.39% for oligodontia were obtained. The presence of dental agenesis concomitant with some other forms of oral and dental anomalies was observed. Attention must be drawn to the fact that a greater number of concomitant systemic entities were observed in those patients that presented a severe phenotypical pattern of dental agenesis. Conclusions: The results of the present study do not differ from the ones reported in studies of similar characteristics among Occidental and Spanish populations. The relationship observed between certain systemic entities and developmental dental anomalies suggest a possible common genetic etiology

Promotion of learning skills in the study of economics. pilot project in the subject area of

This communication is part of a larger teaching innovation project financed by the University ofBarcelona, whose objective is to develop and evaluate transversal competences of the UB, learningability and responsibility. The competence is divided into several sub-competencies being the ability toanalyze and synthesis the most intensely worked in the first year. The work presented here part fromthe results obtained in phase 1 and 2 previously implemented in other subjects (Mathematics andHistory) in the first year of the degree of Business Administration Degree. In these subjects’ previousexperiences there were deficiencies in the acquisition of learning skills by the students. The work inthe subject of Mathematics facilitated that students become aware of the deficit. The work on thesubject of History insisted on developing readings schemes and with the practical exercises wassought to go deeply in the development of this competence.The third phase presented here is developed in the framework of the second year degree, in the WorldEconomy subject. The objective of this phase is the development and evaluation of the same crosscompetence of the previous phases, from a practice that includes both, quantitative analysis andcritical reflection. Specifically the practice focuses on the study of the dynamic relationship betweeneconomic growth and the dynamics in the distribution of wealth. The activity design as well as theselection of materials to make it, has been directed to address gaps in the ability to analyze andsynthesize detected in the subjects of the first year in the previous phases of the project.The realization of the practical case is considered adequate methodology to improve the acquisition ofcompetence of the students, then it is also proposed how to evaluate the acquisition of suchcompetence. The practice is evaluated based on a rubric developed in the framework of the projectobjectives. Thus at the end of phase 3 we can analyze the process that have followed the students,detect where they have had major difficulties and identify those aspects of teaching that can help toimprove the acquisition of skills by the students. The interest of this phase resides in the possibility tovalue whether tracing of learning through competences, organized in a collaborative way, is a goodtool to develop the acquisition of these skills and facilitate their evaluation.

Soil oribatid mite in four typical vegetation communities of Misiones forest in the Iguazú area, Argentina

The objective of this work was to assess the soil oribatid mite communities in four sites of the Upper Paraná Bosque Atlántico, in the Iguazú National Park, Argentina and in surrounding areas: bamboo forest, palm forest and two mixed forests. A comparison between each pair of sites, based on the presence-absence of oribatid species, was performed using Jaccard's index. This is the first systematic sampling of oribatid mites in this area. A total of 56 genera and 96 oribatid species were found, 25 and 49 of them, respectively, are new citation for Argentina. The highest similarity was found between mixed forests. Almost 68% and 34% of the genera were cited for similar biotopes in Brazil and Paraguay, respectively.

Habitat fragmentation, ecology and sexual selection in forest bird species in Monteverde, Costa Rica

Abstract Forest fragmentation is often associated with local extinction and changes in species abundance patterns. The main topic of this thesis is the effect of forest fragmentation on birds in Monteverde, Costa Rica. This thesis also studies aspects of sexual selection and ecology of Long-tailed Manakins, Chiroxiphia Linearis. Chapter 1 investigates bird species assemblages in two degrees of forest fragmentation. It is shown that the distribution, abundance and diversity of forest bird species are strongly influenced by the amount of forest in the landscape matrix. Presence of cattle within the forest influences the presence of some bird species. The prevalence and intensity of ticks and blood parasites on birds in relation to fragmentation is described in Chapter 2. Overall tick prevalence is 3%. Understory birds are significantly more infested with ticks than species at intermediate heights. Tick prevalence on birds does not differ significantly between two degrees of forest fragmentation and individual tick loads tend to be higher in High- than in Low-fragmentation sites. Infestations by the blood parasites Haemoproteus sp. was low except in white-eared ground sparrow, Melozone leucotis, that is 28% and is significantly higher in High- than in Low-fragmentation sites. In chapter 3 results on the ecology and habitat movements of the Bare-necked Umbrellabird, Cephalopterus glabricollis, are presented. The abundance of umbrellabirds at high elevations during the breeding season coincides with the highest peak of fruit abundance. Birds leave the protected area during the non-breeding season moving to unprotected forest fragments. In chapter 4 ontogenetic changes in feather morphology through sexual maturity in Long-tailed Manakins are described. In adult males, rectrices length is positively correlated to testis volume. Changes in male morphology during ontogeny in the long-tailed manakin appear to be associated with their specific-display behaviours. Significant interpopulation differences in the morphology of Long-tailed Manakins are shown in chapter 5. These differences are more accentuated in morphological traits related to flight displays. A field experiment demonstrates that long rectrices impose flying costs for males and females. A reduction in flying ability was found to be strongest in males from a population presenting the highest degree of sexual dimorphism. Résumé La fragmentation des forêts est souvent associée avec des modifications dans l'abondance des espèces et des extinctions locales. Le thème principale de cette thèse est l'étude de l'effet de la fragmentation des forêts sur les oiseaux de Monteverde, Costa Rica. Elle décrit par ailleurs certains aspects de la sélection sexuelle et l'écologie du manakin à longue queue, Chiroxiphia linearis. Dans le Chapitre 1 je montre que la distribution, l'abondance et la diversité des assemblages d'oiseaux vivant dans la forêt sont fortement influencées pas le degré de fragmentation de celle ci. Par ailleurs, la présence ou l'absence de bétail dans les forêts influence la présence de certaines espèces d'oiseaux. Dans le chapitre 2 j'ai étudié la prévalence et l'intensité d'infestation par des tiques ainsi que la présence de parasites sanguins chez les oiseaux en relation avec la fragmentation des forêts. La prévalence globale de tiques est de 3 %, les oiseaux vivant au niveau du sol étaient plus souvent infectés par des tiques que les espèces se déplaçant à un niveau plus élevé. La prévalence de tiques sur les oiseaux n'était pas significativement différente entre les paysages avec différentes fragmentations. Les parasites sanguins du genre Haemoproteus sp. étaient présents à très basse fréquence à l'exception chez Melozone leucotis ou la prevalence était de 28% et significativement plus élevée chez les oiseaux vivant dans les forêts à forte fragmentation. Dans le Chapitre 3 je présente des résultats sur l'écologie et les mouvements entre habitats chez le "Bare-necked umbrellabird", Cephalopterus glabricollis. Cette espèce endémique du Costa Rica niche à haute altitude durant la période d'abondance des fruits et réalise une migration altitudinale vers des zones basses durant la saison de non reproduction. Dans le chapitre 4 je présente les changements ontogénétiques dans la morphologie du plumage des manakins à longue queue. Chez les mâles, les changements de morphologie semblent être associés avec leurs comportements de parade spécifiques. Dans le chapitre 5 je présente des différences morphologiques significative entre deux populations chez le manakin à longue queue et je montre que la capacité de vols chez les mâles est plus fortement influencée dans la population avec le degré de dimorphisme sexuel le plus prononcé.

Effects of sample size on the performance of species distribution models

A wide range of modelling algorithms is used by ecologists, conservation practitioners, and others to predict species ranges from point locality data. Unfortunately, the amount of data available is limited for many taxa and regions, making it essential to quantify the sensitivity of these algorithms to sample size. This is the first study to address this need by rigorously evaluating a broad suite of algorithms with independent presence-absence data from multiple species and regions. We evaluated predictions from 12 algorithms for 46 species (from six different regions of the world) at three sample sizes (100, 30, and 10 records). We used data from natural history collections to run the models, and evaluated the quality of model predictions with area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). With decreasing sample size, model accuracy decreased and variability increased across species and between models. Novel modelling methods that incorporate both interactions between predictor variables and complex response shapes (i.e. GBM, MARS-INT, BRUTO) performed better than most methods at large sample sizes but not at the smallest sample sizes. Other algorithms were much less sensitive to sample size, including an algorithm based on maximum entropy (MAXENT) that had among the best predictive power across all sample sizes. Relative to other algorithms, a distance metric algorithm (DOMAIN) and a genetic algorithm (OM-GARP) had intermediate performance at the largest sample size and among the best performance at the lowest sample size. No algorithm predicted consistently well with small sample size (n < 30) and this should encourage highly conservative use of predictions based on small sample size and restrict their use to exploratory modelling.

The Relationship of Aggregate Durability to Trace Element Content, Interim Report, HR-266, 1984

This report is a brief overview of the recent Iowa Department of Transportation research in the area of durability of Portland cement, concrete under the direction of Wendeli Dubberke. Present plans are to publish a more detailed report on low Portland cement concrete- durability research in January, 1985.

Trophic resource partitioning and competition between the two sibling bat species Myotis myotis and Myotis blythii

1. Niche theory predicts that the stable coexistence of species within a guild should be associated, if resources are limited, with a mechanism of resource partitioning. Using extensive data on diets, the present study attempts: (i) to test the hypothesis that, in sympatry, the interspecific overlap between the trophic niches of the sibling bat species Myotis myotis and M. blythii-which coexist intimately in their roosts-is effectively lower than the two intraspecific overlaps; (ii) to assess the role played by interspecific competition in resource partitioning through the study of trophic niche displacement between several sympatric and allopatric populations. 2. Diets were determined by the analysis of faecal samples collected in the field from individual bats captured in various geographical areas. Trophic niche overlaps were calculated monthly for all possible intraspecific and interspecific pairs of individuals from sympatric populations. Niche breadth was estimated from: (i) every faecal sample; (ii) all the faecal samples collected per month in a given population (geographical area). 3. In every population, the bulk of the diets of M. myotis and M. blythii consisted of, respectively, terrestrial (e.g. carabid beetles) and grass-dwelling (mostly bush crickets) prey. All intraspecific trophic niche overlaps were significantly greater than the interspecific one, except in Switzerland in May when both species exploited mass concentrations of cockchafers, a non-limiting food source. This clearcut partitioning of resources may allow the stable, intimate coexistence observed under sympatric conditions. 4. Relative proportions of ground-and grass-dwelling prey, as well as niche breadths (either individual or population), did not differ significantly between sympatry and allopatry, showing that, under allopatric conditions, niche expansion does not take place. This suggests that active interspecific competition is not the underlying mechanism responsible for the niche partitioning which is currently observed between M. myotis and M. blythii.

Phylogéographie des principales vipères européennes (Vipera ammodytes, V. aspis et V. berus), structuration génétique et multipaternité chez Vipera berus

Résumé: Les vipères du genre Vipera sont des serpents venimeux distribués dans la totalité du Paléarctique. Malgré cette répartition considérable, elles sont extrêmement menacées, leur déclin étant principalement dû à la destruction et à la fragmentation de leur habitat ainsi qu'à la persécution humaine. Afin d'apporter de nouveaux éléments dans le contexte de la protection de ce groupe de reptiles, nous avons utilisé durant ce travail de thèse différents marqueurs moléculaires pour étudier la structuration génétique à petite et à large échelle chez trois espèces appartenant au genre Vipera. La première étude, une phylogéographie moléculaire de la vipère ammodytes (Vipera ammodytes), a montré dans l'ensemble de l'aire de répartition une forte structuration génétique provenant d'isolements antérieures au Pléistocène. La présence d'un nombre important de clades dans le centre des Balkans suggère que cette région a fourni de nombreux refuges isolés durant les glaciations. Ces dernières ont également eu un impact considérable sur la diversité génétique au sein de la majorité des clades, suite à d'importants goulots d'étranglement durant le Pléistocène. L'étude de la phylogéographie de la vipère aspic (Vipera aspis) a montré une différenciation génétique entre les populations présentes de chaque côté des Alpes, mais également une forte structuration interne avec la mise en évidence d'un refuge en France. Cette étude est la première à établir clairement l'utilisation d'un refuge français pour un vertébré terrestre. La troisième partie de cette thèse a étudié la phylogéographie de la vipère péliade (Vipera berus), espèce cible de ce travail. En plus de la mise en évidence d'un groupe génétique inattendu (localisé dans le nord de l'Italie, le sud de l'Autriche, le nord de la Slovénie et l'extrême sud-est de la Suisse), la variabilité génétique au sein du groupe nordique (comprenant les animaux de l'entier de l'aire de répartition de l'espèce à l'exception des individus du groupe italien et les animaux provenant des Balkans) est suffisamment importante pour conclure à l'utilisation de refuges glaciaires nordiques durant les dernières glaciations, en complément des refuges habituellement décrits pour la majorité des espèces animales (soit les péninsules ibérique, italienne et balakanique). Ces résultats nous ont conduit à effectuer une étude morphologique (quatrième partie) comparant les vipères péliades du "clade italien" et du "clade nordique" décrits ci-dessus. Seules de petites différences morphologiques ont pu être mises en évidence, malgré une séparation de ces groupes estimée à plus d'un million d'années. Une étude à plus petite échelle, centrée sur le Massif jurassien et certaines populations alpines et françaises, a été entreprise afin d'estimer leur diversité génétique et d'évaluer la structuration génétique entre les populations à l'aide de marqueurs microsatellites (cinquième partie). Une importante structuration a été observée entre les populations distantes de plus de 3 kilomètres, la structuration entre les populations plus proches étant plus limitée. De plus, une diversité génétique plus faible dans les populations jurassiennes et alpines comparativement aux populations du massif central et de la côte atlantique a été constatée, probablement due à une perte de diversité génétique lors de la recolonisation post-glaciaire. La sixième étude s'est intéressée au succès reproducteur des mâles de vipères péliades en conditions naturelles. Une corrélation entre la taille des mâles et leur succès reproducteur a été relevée, les individus de plus grande taille ayant un succès reproducteur plus élevé. Le taux de multipaternité a aussi été investigué, démontrant que la proportion de pontes issues de plusieurs pères est élevée (69%) malgré la faible densité de vipères observée sur le site étudié. Finalement, aucun lien entre le nombre de pères au sein d'une ponte et la mortalité des jeunes à la naissance n'a pu être mis en évidence, contrastant avec des travaux précédents. En conclusion, l'observation de la structuration très marquée chez les vipères péliades devrait permettre d'affiner les méthodes de protection de l'espèce dans le massif jurassien. A plus large échelle, l'importante structuration génétique observée chez les vipères ammodytes, aspic et péliade résultant de l'utilisation de nombreux refuges glaciaires, complémentaires aux refuges habituellement utilisés par les espèces animales, démontre l'intérêt de l'analyse phylogéographique des reptiles pour la compréhension des phénomènes de colonisation et d' extinction des populations durant la fin du Tertiaire et le Quaternaire. La mise en évidence chez les différentes espèces de vipères étudiées de nombreux groupes génétiques distincts (ESUs) devrait conduire à des modifications de la taxonomie ainsi qu'au statut de protection de ces espèces. Abstract: The vipers of the genus Vipera are venomous snakes widespread throughout the Palaearctic regions. Despite a large distribution area, several species are extremely threatened, especially due to the destruction and fragmentation of their habitats, as well as by human persecution. In order to increase the knowledge on these species and to improve their protection, several molecular markers have been used to investigate the genetic structure on small and large scales, within three species of the genus Vipera. The first study, a molecular phylogeography of the nose-horned viper (Vipera ammodytes), showed a considerable structuring throughout the distribution area, due to isolation into refugia before the Pleistocene. A high number of clades in the centre of the Balkans suggests that this region harboured numerous isolated glacial refugia during the last glaciation. Moreover, low genetic diversity within several clades implies that most populations of nose-horned vipers have suffered bottlenecks during the Pleistocene. The study of the phylogeography of the asp viper (Vipera aspis) showed genetic differentiation between populations on each side of the Alps, as well as considerable internal genetic structure, suggesting the use of a glacial refugium in France. This study is the first to establish firmly the occurrence of a French refugia for a terrestrial vertebrate. The third part of this work involved a phylogeographic study of the adder (Vipera berus), the target species of this thesis. Three clades were revealed: a Balkan clade (corresponding to the subspecies V. b. sachalinensis), an unexpected Italian clade (limited to northern Italy, southern Austria, northern Slovenia and southeasternmost corner of Switzerland) and a Northern clade clade (including adders of the whole distribution area excepted animals from the Balkan and the Italian clades). The genetic variability within the Northern clade is sufficiently high to conclude that a northern glacial refugia during the last glaciation, in addition to those refugia already described for the main species (Iberian, Italian and Balkan peninsula). These results motivated a morphological study (part four) comparing the adders from the Italian and the Northern clades describe above. Only small morphological differences have been found, despite the split between these two clades have taken place more than 1 million years ago. A study on a local scale, focused on the Jura Mountains, on a few populations in the Alps and France was, performed to estimate the genetic diversity and the genetic structure between populations using microsatellite markers (part five). Considerable structure was observed between populations separated by more than 3 kilometres, whereas the structure between closer populations is less marked. Moreover, lower genetic diversity in the populations from Jura Mountains and Alps was noticed compared to populations from Massif Central of Atlantic coast. Such loss of genetic variation probably followed post-glacial recolonisation. The sixth study focused on the reproductive success of male adders in the wild. A positive correlation between body length and reproductive success was observed. Multiple paternity was also observed in most of clutches (69%) despite the low density of adders in the study area. Finally, no relationship was found between the number of fathers in a clutch and the survival of offspring at birth, contradicting previous studies. To conclude, the observation of a significant genetic structure in Vipera berus will enable recommendations to be made to improve protection of this species in the Jura Mountain. On a larger scale, the considerable genetic structure found within Vipera ammdoytes, V. aspis and V. berus, resulting from isolation in additional glacial refugia to those already described for other species, demonstrates the relevance of phylogeographic studies of reptiles to better understand the colonisation and disappearance during the last Tertiary and the Quaternary. The observation of several groups of evolutionary significant units (ESUs) within the three studied species might lead to a revision of the taxonomy, as well as their conservation status.

Innovative LIDAR 3D dynamic measurement system to estimate fruit-tree leaf area

In this work, a LIDAR-based 3D Dynamic Measurement System is presented and evaluated for the geometric characterization of tree crops. Using this measurement system, trees were scanned from two opposing sides to obtain two three-dimensional point clouds. After registration of the point clouds, a simple and easily obtainable parameter is the number of impacts received by the scanned vegetation. The work in this study is based on the hypothesis of the existence of a linear relationship between the number of impacts of the LIDAR sensor laser beam on the vegetation and the tree leaf area. Tests performed under laboratory conditions using an ornamental tree and, subsequently, in a pear tree orchard demonstrate the correct operation of the measurement system presented in this paper. The results from both the laboratory and field tests confirm the initial hypothesis and the 3D Dynamic Measurement System is validated in field operation. This opens the door to new lines of research centred on the geometric characterization of tree crops in the field of agriculture and, more specifically, in precision fruit growing.

Modelling bird species richness with neural networks for forest landscape management in NE Spain

Para preservar la biodiversidad de los ecosistemas forestales de la Europa mediterránea en escenarios actuales y futuros de cambio global mediante una gestión forestal sostenible es necesario determinar cómo influye el medio ambiente y las propias características de los bosques sobre la biodiversidad que éstos albergan. Con este propósito, se analizó la influencia de diferentes factores ambientales y de estructura y composición del bosque sobre la riqueza de aves forestales a escala 1 × 1 km en Cataluña (NE de España). Se construyeron modelos univariantes y multivariantes de redes neuronales para respectivamente explorar la respuesta individual a las variables y obtener un modelo parsimonioso (ecológicamente interpretable) y preciso. La superficie de bosque (con una fracción de cabida cubierta superior a 5%), la fracción de cabida cubierta media, la temperatura anual y la precipitación estival medias fueron los mejores predictores de la riqueza de aves forestales. La red neuronal multivariante obtenida tuvo una buena capacidad de generalización salvo en las localidades con una mayor riqueza. Además, los bosques con diferentes grados de apertura del dosel arbóreo, más maduros y más diversos en cuanto a su composición de especies arbóreas se asociaron de forma positiva con una mayor riqueza de aves forestales. Finalmente, se proporcionan directrices de gestión para la planificación forestal que permitan promover la diversidad ornítica en esta región de la Europa mediterránea.

Gas exchanges in peach palms as a function of the spad chlorophyll meter readings

The close relationship between the chlorophyll-meters readings and the total chlorophyll and nitrogen contents in leaves, has allowed their evaluation both in annual and perennial species. Besides, some physiological events such as the CO2 assimilation have also been estimated by chlorophyll meters. This work was carried out aiming to evaluate the gas exchanges of peach palms as a function of the chlorophyll SPAD-Meter readings. Three year-old peach palms from Yurimaguas, Peru were studied in Ubatuba, SP, Brazil, spaced 2 x 1 m in area under a natural gradient of organic matter which allowed four plots to be considered, according to the peach palms leaves colors, from light yellow to dark green. The SPAD readings and the stomatal frequency of leaflets were evaluated. The photosynthetic photon flux density (PPFD, μmol m-2 s-1), the leaf temperature (Tleaf, ºC), the CO2 assimilation (A, μmol m-2 s-1), the stomatal conductance (g s, mol m-2 s-1), the transpiration (E, mmol m-2 s-1) and the intercellular CO2 concentration (Ci, μmol mol-1) were evaluated with a portable infrared gas analyzer (LCA-4, ADC BioScientific Ltd., Great Amwell, U.K.). A linear increase in the CO2 assimilation as a function of the SPAD readings (y = -0.34 + 0.19x, R² = 0.99), indicates that they can be a rapid and cheap complementary method to evaluate in peach palms some important physiological events, such as CO2 assimilation.

Using species richness and functional traits predictions to constrain assemblage predictions from stacked species distribution models

Aim: Modelling species at the assemblage level is required to make effective forecast of global change impacts on diversity and ecosystem functioning. Community predictions may be achieved using macroecological properties of communities (MEM), or by stacking of individual species distribution models (S-SDMs). To obtain more realistic predictions of species assemblages, the SESAM framework suggests applying successive filters to the initial species source pool, by combining different modelling approaches and rules. Here we provide a first test of this framework in mountain grassland communities. Location: The western Swiss Alps. Methods: Two implementations of the SESAM framework were tested: a "Probability ranking" rule based on species richness predictions and rough probabilities from SDMs, and a "Trait range" rule that uses the predicted upper and lower bound of community-level distribution of three different functional traits (vegetative height, specific leaf area and seed mass) to constraint a pool of environmentally filtered species from binary SDMs predictions. Results: We showed that all independent constraints expectedly contributed to reduce species richness overprediction. Only the "Probability ranking" rule allowed slightly but significantly improving predictions of community composition. Main conclusion: We tested various ways to implement the SESAM framework by integrating macroecological constraints into S-SDM predictions, and report one that is able to improve compositional predictions. We discuss possible improvements, such as further improving the causality and precision of environmental predictors, using other assembly rules and testing other types of ecological or functional constraints.

Impact of model complexity on cross-temporal transferability in Maxent species distribution models: An assessment using paleobotanical data

Maximum entropy modeling (Maxent) is a widely used algorithm for predicting species distributions across space and time. Properly assessing the uncertainty in such predictions is non-trivial and requires validation with independent datasets. Notably, model complexity (number of model parameters) remains a major concern in relation to overfitting and, hence, transferability of Maxent models. An emerging approach is to validate the cross-temporal transferability of model predictions using paleoecological data. In this study, we assess the effect of model complexity on the performance of Maxent projections across time using two European plant species (Alnus giutinosa (L.) Gaertn. and Corylus avellana L) with an extensive late Quaternary fossil record in Spain as a study case. We fit 110 models with different levels of complexity under present time and tested model performance using AUC (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve) and AlCc (corrected Akaike Information Criterion) through the standard procedure of randomly partitioning current occurrence data. We then compared these results to an independent validation by projecting the models to mid-Holocene (6000 years before present) climatic conditions in Spain to assess their ability to predict fossil pollen presence-absence and abundance. We find that calibrating Maxent models with default settings result in the generation of overly complex models. While model performance increased with model complexity when predicting current distributions, it was higher with intermediate complexity when predicting mid-Holocene distributions. Hence, models of intermediate complexity resulted in the best trade-off to predict species distributions across time. Reliable temporal model transferability is especially relevant for forecasting species distributions under future climate change. Consequently, species-specific model tuning should be used to find the best modeling settings to control for complexity, notably with paleoecological data to independently validate model projections. For cross-temporal projections of species distributions for which paleoecological data is not available, models of intermediate complexity should be selected.