A finite-population revenue management model and a risk-ratio procedure for the joint estimation of population size and parameters

Many dynamic revenue management models divide the sale period into a finite number of periods T and assume, invoking a fine-enough grid of time, that each period sees at most one booking request. These Poisson-type assumptions restrict the variability of the demand in the model, but researchers and practitioners were willing to overlook this for the benefit of tractability of the models. In this paper, we criticize this model from another angle. Estimating the discrete finite-period model poses problems of indeterminacy and non-robustness: Arbitrarily fixing T leads to arbitrary control values and on the other hand estimating T from data adds an additional layer of indeterminacy. To counter this, we first propose an alternate finite-population model that avoids this problem of fixing T and allows a wider range of demand distributions, while retaining the useful marginal-value properties of the finite-period model. The finite-population model still requires jointly estimating market size and the parameters of the customer purchase model without observing no-purchases. Estimation of market-size when no-purchases are unobservable has rarely been attempted in the marketing or revenue management literature. Indeed, we point out that it is akin to the classical statistical problem of estimating the parameters of a binomial distribution with unknown population size and success probability, and hence likely to be challenging. However, when the purchase probabilities are given by a functional form such as a multinomial-logit model, we propose an estimation heuristic that exploits the specification of the functional form, the variety of the offer sets in a typical RM setting, and qualitative knowledge of arrival rates. Finally we perform simulations to show that the estimator is very promising in obtaining unbiased estimates of population size and the model parameters.

Biotic potential and reproductive parameters of Spodoptera eridania (Stoll) (Lepidoptera, Noctuidae) in the laboratory

Biotic potential and reprodutcive parameters of Spodoptera eridania (Stoll) (Lepidoptera, Noctuidae) in the laboratory: This study aimed to evaluate the biotic potential and reproductive parameters of Spodoptera eridania (Stoll, 1782) under controlled conditions (25 ± 1ºC, 70 ± 10% RH and 14 hour photophase). The longevity, pre-, post- and oviposition periods, fecundity and fertility of 15 couples was evaluated. The longevity of females (10.80 days) was not significantly higher than those of males (9.27 days). The mean durations of the pre, post and oviposition periods were 2.067, 0.600 and 8.133 days, respectively. The mean fecundity per female was 1,398 eggs and the mean fertility was 1,367.50 larvae. On average, females copulated 1.133 times. A strong positive correlation was observed between the number of mating and fecundity (r = 0.881, P <0.001). However a strong negative correlation was observed between the number of copulations and the duration of the pre-oviposition period (r = -0.826, P = 0.002) and longevity (r = -0.823, P = 0.001). The biotic potential of S. eridania was estimated at 1.894 x 10(25) individuals/female/year. The net reproductive rate (Ro) was 560.531 times per generation and the mean generation time (T) was 35.807 days. The intrinsic rate of increase (rm) was 0.177, with a finite rate of increase (l) of 1.193, per week

Recontrucción de LCA mediante un plastia HTH con tendón rotuliano autólogo.

Treball restrospectiu de resió de 50 histories clíniques de L’Hospital FREMAP Barcelona, amb diagnóstic confirmat de trencament de lligament creuat anterior mitjançant RM, valorant la bondat de la reconstrució d’aquest lligament amb la técnica HTH amb tendó rotuliá autólog analizant de la seva evolución fins la reincorporació laboral, seqüeles i lesions asociades.

Efeito da adubação alternativa do maracujazeiro-amarelo nas características químicas e físicas do solo

Adubações minerais e orgânicas promovem alterações nas condições físicas e químicas do solo, com conseqüente efeito na produtividade das culturas. Um experimento foi realizado no Município de Campos dos Goytacazes, RJ, de fevereiro de 2005 a julho de 2006, para comparar diferentes adubos orgânicos com a adubação mineral do maracujazeiro-amarelo quanto aos efeitos sobre as características químicas e físicas do solo adubado. O delineamento experimental foi em blocos casualizados, com quatro repetições e seis tratamentos, correspondentes às seguintes adubações por planta: (AM) adubação mineral = 100 g da fórmula NPK 20-5-20 + cobertura morta (CM); EB = 5 L de esterco bovino + CM; FOC = 500 g de farinha de ossos e carne + CM; RM = 5 L de raspa de mandioca + CM; TF C/CM = 5 L de torta de filtro + CM; TF S/CM = 5 L de torta de filtro - sem CM. A adubação mineral foi feita a cada 30 dias e as adubações orgânicas a cada 60 dias. Foram avaliados os atributos químicos: pH, condutividade elétrica, teores de P, K, Ca, Mg, Na, Al, H + Al, e matéria orgânica; e os físicos: granulometria, densidade do solo e das partículas, porosidade total, macro e microporosidade, capacidade de campo, ponto de murcha e água disponível em três diferentes profundidades (0-5, 5-10, 10-15 cm). Os adubos orgânicos aplicados no maracujazeiro promoveram mudanças significativas nas características químicas do solo, em comparação com a adubação mineral tradicional, em que houve aumento do pH e do H + Al em todas as profundidades, e redução dos teores de Al nas camadas mais profundas. Houve, ainda, aumento nos teores de nutrientes no solo e, por conseqüência, na soma de bases, principalmente na camada superior, sendo a torta de filtro o composto orgânico mais eficiente em promover tais melhorias, inclusive aumentando a CTC do solo. Apenas a torta de filtro promoveu alterações nas características físicas do solo, reduzindo as quantidades de areia grossa e aumentando as quantidades de silte, argila e matéria orgânica. As demais características físicas do solo não foram influenciadas pela adição de adubos orgânicos no maracujazeiro, em comparação com a adubação mineral tradicional.

Atributos físicos e matéria orgânica de organossolos háplicos em distintos ambientes no Brasil

Os Organossolos são formados em condições geomórficas e climáticas que favorecem o acúmulo de material orgânico e sua drenagem para uso agrícola conduz a subsidência e modificações no teor de matéria orgânica do solo (MOS), com implicações na sustentabilidade desses solos. O objetivo deste trabalho foi avaliar alguns atributos físicos e sua relação com o teor e grau de decomposição da matéria orgânica de Organossolos Háplicos formados em ambientes hidromórficos, nos Estados do Rio de Janeiro (clima tropical atlântico Aw), Maranhão (tropical Awh) e Paraná (subtropical Cfb), com distintos usos. Foram utilizados os métodos recomendados no Sistema Brasileiro de Classificação de Solos (SiBCS) para caracterização de oito perfis, totalizando 30 horizontes, de Organossolos, sendo o teor de matéria orgânica quantificado pelo método da mufla. Os atributos físicos densidade do solo (Ds), densidade da matéria orgânica (DMO), percentual de material mineral (MM) e resíduo mínimo (RM) refletiram no teor e grau de transformação do material orgânico. A Ds variou de 0,09 a 0,93 Mg m-3, com média de 0,44 Mg m-3 e a DMO, de 0,02 a 0,66 Mg m-3, sendo a média de 0,28 Mg m-3. Observou-se relação diretamente proporcional entre a Ds e os atributos MM e RM. Quanto ao grau de decomposição, os materiais orgânicos foram identificados principalmente nas classes de hêmicos e sápricos; porém, como classes distintas foram obtidas em função do método usado, recomenda-se o uso do índice de pirofosfato e teor de fibras esfregadas em conjunto, definindo as classes por faixa de valores. Os Organossolos com menor alteração antrópica, no Estado do Rio de Janeiro (RJ02 e RJ08), apresentaram os maiores teores de matéria orgânica e os menores valores de Ds, DMO e MM. Assim, esses atributos são relevantes como indicadores do potencial de subsidência e da degradação dos Organossolos, solos relevantes pelo seu alto estoque de carbono e para a preservação de aquíferos.

Avaliação da disponibilidade de fósforo no solo para a cultura do milho

Conduziu-se um experimento, em 1994, em casa de vegetação com seis solos do Estado do Rio Grande do Sul, com o objetivo de avaliar a disponibilidade de fósforo no solo extraído pelos métodos duplo ácido (Mehlich-1), resinas em esferas (RE), em cápsulas (RC) e em membrana (RM) e papéis de filtro impregnados com óxido de ferro em solo umedecido a 75% da capacidade de campo (D1) e solo saturado (D2). Os solos foram previamente incubados com quatro doses de fósforo, e cultivados com milho durante 28 dias. Os coeficientes de determinação obtidos entre o fósforo absorvido pelas plantas de milho e o fósforo extraído foram: 0,85 para o Mehlich-1; 0,82 para o RE; 0,84 para o RC; 0,89 para o RM; 0,75 para o D1 e 0,70 para o D2. As quantidades de fósforo extraídas pelos métodos das resinas foram altamente correlacionadas entre si (r=0,98) e com as extraídas pelo método D1 (r=0,89). Os resultados permitiram concluir que os métodos testados foram igualmente eficientes na extração do fósforo do solo e para avaliar a disponibilidade deste elemento para a cultura do milho.

Common variants near MC4R are associated with fat mass, weight and risk of obesity.

To identify common variants influencing body mass index (BMI), we analyzed genome-wide association data from 16,876 individuals of European descent. After previously reported variants in FTO, the strongest association signal (rs17782313, P = 2.9 x 10(-6)) mapped 188 kb downstream of MC4R (melanocortin-4 receptor), mutations of which are the leading cause of monogenic severe childhood-onset obesity. We confirmed the BMI association in 60,352 adults (per-allele effect = 0.05 Z-score units; P = 2.8 x 10(-15)) and 5,988 children aged 7-11 (0.13 Z-score units; P = 1.5 x 10(-8)). In case-control analyses (n = 10,583), the odds for severe childhood obesity reached 1.30 (P = 8.0 x 10(-11)). Furthermore, we observed overtransmission of the risk allele to obese offspring in 660 families (P (pedigree disequilibrium test average; PDT-avg) = 2.4 x 10(-4)). The SNP location and patterns of phenotypic associations are consistent with effects mediated through altered MC4R function. Our findings establish that common variants near MC4R influence fat mass, weight and obesity risk at the population level and reinforce the need for large-scale data integration to identify variants influencing continuous biomedical traits.

On the tractability of the piecewise-linear approximation for general discrete-choice network revenue management

The choice network revenue management (RM) model incorporates customer purchase behavioras customers purchasing products with certain probabilities that are a function of the offeredassortment of products, and is the appropriate model for airline and hotel network revenuemanagement, dynamic sales of bundles, and dynamic assortment optimization. The underlyingstochastic dynamic program is intractable and even its certainty-equivalence approximation, inthe form of a linear program called Choice Deterministic Linear Program (CDLP) is difficultto solve in most cases. The separation problem for CDLP is NP-complete for MNL with justtwo segments when their consideration sets overlap; the affine approximation of the dynamicprogram is NP-complete for even a single-segment MNL. This is in contrast to the independentclass(perfect-segmentation) case where even the piecewise-linear approximation has been shownto be tractable. In this paper we investigate the piecewise-linear approximation for network RMunder a general discrete-choice model of demand. We show that the gap between the CDLP andthe piecewise-linear bounds is within a factor of at most 2. We then show that the piecewiselinearapproximation is polynomially-time solvable for a fixed consideration set size, bringing itinto the realm of tractability for small consideration sets; small consideration sets are a reasonablemodeling tradeoff in many practical applications. Our solution relies on showing that forany discrete-choice model the separation problem for the linear program of the piecewise-linearapproximation can be solved exactly by a Lagrangian relaxation. We give modeling extensionsand show by numerical experiments the improvements from using piecewise-linear approximationfunctions.

On the connectivity of the escaping set for complex exponential Misiurewicz parameters

Let $ E_{\lambda}(z)=\lambda {\rm exp}(z), \lambda\in \mathbb{C}$, be the complex exponential family. For all functions in the family there is a unique asymptotic value at 0 (and no critical values). For a fixed $ \lambda$, the set of points in $ \mathbb{C}$ with orbit tending to infinity is called the escaping set. We prove that the escaping set of $ E_{\lambda}$ with $ \lambda$ Misiurewicz (that is, a parameter for which the orbit of the singular value is strictly preperiodic) is a connected set.

Degree of multicollinearity and variables involved in linear dependence in additive-dominant models

The objective of this work was to assess the degree of multicollinearity and to identify the variables involved in linear dependence relations in additive-dominant models. Data of birth weight (n=141,567), yearling weight (n=58,124), and scrotal circumference (n=20,371) of Montana Tropical composite cattle were used. Diagnosis of multicollinearity was based on the variance inflation factor (VIF) and on the evaluation of the condition indexes and eigenvalues from the correlation matrix among explanatory variables. The first model studied (RM) included the fixed effect of dam age class at calving and the covariates associated to the direct and maternal additive and non-additive effects. The second model (R) included all the effects of the RM model except the maternal additive effects. Multicollinearity was detected in both models for all traits considered, with VIF values of 1.03 - 70.20 for RM and 1.03 - 60.70 for R. Collinearity increased with the increase of variables in the model and the decrease in the number of observations, and it was classified as weak, with condition index values between 10.00 and 26.77. In general, the variables associated with additive and non-additive effects were involved in multicollinearity, partially due to the natural connection between these covariables as fractions of the biological types in breed composition.

Ennakoivan Bluetooth -verkon hyödyntäminen paikkatietoon pohjautuvan opastusjärjestelmän toteutuksessa

Tekniikan kehitys ja elämänrytmin kiihtyminen ajaa eteenpäin sekä tarvetta että mahdollisuuksia toteuttaahenkilökohtaisia opastusjärjestelmiä. Lyhyen kantaman langattomat kommunikaatioteknologiat mahdollistavat erilaisten paikkasidonnaisten palveluiden, kuten opastusjärjestelmien toteuttamisen kohtuullisilla kustannuksilla. Markkinoilla olevista järjestelmistä sisätiloihin sijoittuvaan reaaliaikaiseen opastukseen soveltuvaa järjestelmää on vaikea löytää ja useimmat niistä hyödyntävät WLAN -tekniikkaa, joka ei ole kovin laajasti tuettuna matkapuhelimen kaltaisissa kannettavissa päätelaitteissa. Tässä työssä tuodaan esille Bluetooth -tekniikalla toteutettavien reaaliaikaisten järjestelmien ongelmia ja esitellään yksi ratkaisumalli. Toimintaa vaikeuttaa lähinnä pitkä yhteyden muodostumisaika, joka koostuu verkon laitteiden hakemiseen kuluvasta pitkästä vaikeasti kestoltaan arvioitavasta ajasta ja valittuun kohteeseen yhteyden muodostamiseen kuluneesta ajasta. Toteutetussa Bluetooth -opastusjärjestelmässä opastettavien laitteiden hakeminen liityntäpistettä vaihdettaessa on voitu jättää pois, koska yhteyden muodostamiseen vaaditut tiedot välitetään liityntäpisteille kiinteän Ethernet -verkon välityksellä. Työntuloksena syntyneen opastusjärjestelmän käyttökokemukset osoittavat opastusverkon suunnittelun olevan haastava tehtävä, mutta verkon toimintakuntoon saattamisen jälkeen järjestelmän suorituskykyyn saadaan huomattava parannus. Demonstraatiototeutus rajoittaa käytettävän laitteiston Linux-pohjaisiin järjestelmiin, vaikka laajemman käyttöönoton varmistamiseksi järjestelmä tulisi tehdä siirrettäväksiesimerkiksi Symbian -alustalle.