Structural time series models and the Kalman filter: A concise review

The continued increase in availability of economic data in recent years and, more importantly, the possibility to construct larger frequency time series, have fostered the use (and development) of statistical and econometric techniques to treat them more accurately. This paper presents an exposition of structural time series models by which a time series can be decomposed as the sum of a trend, seasonal and irregular components. In addition to a detailled analysis of univariate speci fications we also address the SUTSE multivariate case and the issue of cointegration. Finally, the recursive estimation and smoothing by means of the Kalman filter algorithm is described taking into account its different stages, from initialisation to parameter s estimation.

The institutions of archaic post-modernity and their organizational and managerial consequences: The case of Portugal

The long march of modernization of the Western societies tends to be presented as following a regular sequence: societies and institutions were pre-modern, and then they were modernized, eventually becoming post-modern. Such teleology may provide an incomplete or distorted narrative of societal evolution in many parts of the world, even in the ‘post-modern heartland’ of Western Europe, with Portugal being a case in point. The concept of archaic post-modernity has been developed by a philosopher, José Gil, to show how Portuguese institutions and organizations combine elements of pre-modernity and post-modernity. The notion of an archaic post-modernity is advanced in order to provide an alternative account of the modernization process, which enriches discussion of the varieties of capitalism. Differences in historical experiences create singularities that may be considered in the analysis of culture, management and organization.

Impact of the HRM content (i.e. practices) and process (i.e. strength) on individual and organizational outcomes, in the hotel industry

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Internal consultants as positive change agents

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Analyzing the impact of HRM Systems on the organizational climate, culture and outcomes: The mediating role of HMR Strength, organizational climate and culture

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Corporate finance in general equilibrium models with incomplete markets: A survey

A Masters Thesis, presented as part of the requirements for the award of a Research Masters Degree in Economics from NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Dynamic adaptation of interaction models for stateful web services

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Engenharia Informática

A integração da Saúde Mental na estratégia saúde da família : perspectivas dos gerentes da atenção primária de São Paulo

RESUMO: Introdução: A integração da saúde mental (SM) na atenção primária (AP) é a principal garantia de acesso da população às boas práticas em SM. Embora amplamente recomendada há décadas, existem poucos modelos de integração efetiva da SM na AP. Em 2008 o Ministério da Saúde do Brasil criou o Núcleo de Apoio à Saúde da Família (NASF), que passou a ser o responsável pela integração da SM na AP. O objetivo deste estudo é conhecer, a partir da ótica dos gerentes da AP, como se dá a integração da SM na AP, suas visões sobre o NASF e sugestões para melhorar este modelo de integração. A partir dos resultados apresentaremos recomendações para aperfeiçoar o modelo vigente de integração da SM na AP. Método: Pesquisa qualitativa, de caráter exploratório, com orientação analítica – descritiva. Foram realizadas 10 entrevistas semi-estruturadas com gerentes da AP, na região metropolitana de São Paulo. Trabalhou-se com o conceito de amostragem intencional, utilizando como critério de escolha os casos extremos ou desviantes. Foi utilizado o método da Análise Estrutural ou Framework Analysis, uma modalidade de análise de conteúdo. Resultados: Os entrevistados consideraram haver mais barreiras do que facilitadores à integração da SM na AP. As barreiras e facilitadores apresentados estavam relacionados ao contexto social, fatores organizacionais, e componentes pessoais das equipes de trabalhadores. Os gerentes mostram não ter clareza sobre como operacionalizar suas ideias sobre integração da SM na AP e sobre o escopo das intervenções da SM na AP. Na visão dos gerentes a atuação do NASF ainda é incapaz de promover o cuidado integrado. Conclusões: A maior dificuldade não é criar a política de integração da SM na AP, mas viabilizar sua implementação. Recomenda-se aperfeiçoamento do processo de trabalho do NASF e investigações sobre a natureza e exequibilidade do apoio matricial no contexto da AP.--------------ABSTRACT: Introduction: The integration of mental health (MH) in primary care (PC) is the main guarantee of access to good practices in MH. Although widely recommended for decades, there are few models of effective integration of MH in PC. In 2008 the Brazilian Ministry of Health created the Core of Support for the Family Health Strategy (NASF), to be the responsible for the integration of MH in PC. This study aims understanding the PC manager’s perspective about the integration of MH in PC, their visions about the NASF and their suggestions to improve this model of integrated care. Based on results we will present recommendations to improve NASF’s model of integration MH in PC. Method: Qualitative research, exploratory and analytical descriptive study. We conducted 10 semi-structured interviews with PC managers, in the metropolitan region of Sao Paulo. We worked with the concept of intentional sampling, using as a criterion for choosing the extreme or deviant cases. We used the Framework Analysis methodological approach, a method of contente analysis. Results: The interviewees considered that there are more barriers than facilitators for the integration of MH in PC. The barriers and facilitators presented were related to the social context,organizational factors, and personal component of the PC staff. Managers’ shows not have clarity about how implement their ideas about integration of MH in PC and about the scope of the interventions of MH in PC. The NASF is still unable to promote the integrated care in managers perception. Conclusions: The biggest difficulty is not to create a policy of integration of MH in PC, but its implementation. It is recommended to improve the NASF work process and to research about the nature and feasibility of matrix support in the context of PC.

Microscopy image segmentation by active contour models

In this thesis a semi-automated cell analysis system is described through image processing. To achieve this, an image processing algorithm was studied in order to segment cells in a semi-automatic way. The main goal of this analysis is to increase the performance of cell image segmentation process, without affecting the results in a significant way. Even though, a totally manual system has the ability of producing the best results, it has the disadvantage of taking too long and being repetitive, when a large number of images need to be processed. An active contour algorithm was tested in a sequence of images taken by a microscope. This algorithm, more commonly known as snakes, allowed the user to define an initial region in which the cell was incorporated. Then, the algorithm would run several times, making the initial region contours to converge to the cell boundaries. With the final contour, it was possible to extract region properties and produce statistical data. This data allowed to say that this algorithm produces similar results to a purely manual system but at a faster rate. On the other hand, it is slower than a purely automatic way but it allows the user to adjust the contour, making it more versatile and tolerant to image variations.

Participatory Surveillance and Mathematical Models in Epidemiologic Research: Successes and Challenges

Theoretical epidemiology aims to understand the dynamics of diseases in populations and communities. Biological and behavioral processes are abstracted into mathematical formulations which aim to reproduce epidemiological observations. In this thesis a new system for the self-reporting of syndromic data — Influenzanet — is introduced and assessed. The system is currently being extended to address greater challenges of monitoring the health and well-being of tropical communities.(...)

Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis:Mammalian Cell Models,Copper-Zinc Superoxide Dismutaseand Biological Characteristics

"Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis (ALS) is the most severe and common adult onset disorder that affects motor neurons in the spinal cord, brainstem and cortex, resulting in progressive weakness and death from respiratory failure within two to five years of symptoms onset(...)

A CMMI-compliant requirements management and development process

Requirements Engineering has been acknowledged an essential discipline for Software Quality. Poorly-defined processes for eliciting, analyzing, specifying and validating requirements can lead to unclear issues or misunderstandings on business needs and project’s scope. These typically result in customers’ non-satisfaction with either the products’ quality or the increase of the project’s budget and duration. Maturity models allow an organization to measure the quality of its processes and improve them according to an evolutionary path based on levels. The Capability Maturity Model Integration (CMMI) addresses the aforementioned Requirements Engineering issues. CMMI defines a set of best practices for process improvement that are divided into several process areas. Requirements Management and Requirements Development are the process areas concerned with Requirements Engineering maturity. Altran Portugal is a consulting company concerned with the quality of its software. In 2012, the Solution Center department has developed and applied successfully a set of processes aligned with CMMI-DEV v1.3, what granted them a Level 2 maturity certification. For 2015, they defined an organizational goal of addressing CMMI-DEV maturity level 3. This MSc dissertation is part of this organization effort. In particular, it is concerned with the required process areas that address the activities of Requirements Engineering. Our main goal is to contribute for the development of Altran’s internal engineering processes to conform to the guidelines of the Requirements Development process area. Throughout this dissertation, we started with an evaluation method based on CMMI and conducted a compliance assessment of Altran’s current processes. This allowed demonstrating their alignment with the CMMI Requirements Management process area and to highlight the improvements needed to conform to the Requirements Development process area. Based on the study of alternative solutions for the gaps found, we proposed a new Requirements Management and Development process that was later validated using three different approaches. The main contribution of this dissertation is the new process developed for Altran Portugal. However, given that studies on these topics are not abundant in the literature, we also expect to contribute with useful evidences to the existing body of knowledge with a survey on CMMI and requirements engineering trends. Most importantly, we hope that the implementation of the proposed processes’ improvements will minimize the risks of mishandled requirements, increasing Altran’s performance and taking them one step further to the desired maturity level.

Integrated care approaches and skills mix policies in Europe

ABSTRACT - Background: Integration of health care services is emerging as a central challenge of health care delivery, particularly for patients with elderly and complex chronic conditions. In 2003, the World Health Organization (WHO) already began to identify it as one of the key pathways to improve primary care. In 2005, the European Commission declared integrated care as vital for the sustainability of social protection systems in Europe. Nowadays, it is recognized as a core component of health and social care reforms across European countries. Implementing integrated care requires coordination between settings, organizations, providers and professionals. In order to address the challenge of integration in such complex scenario, an effective workforce is required capable of working across interdependent settings. The World Health Report 2006 noted that governments should prepare their workforce and explore what tasks the different levels of health workers are trained to do and are capable of performing (skills mix). Comparatively to other European countries, Portugal is at an early stage in what integrated care is concerned facing a growing elderly population and the subsequent increase in the pressure on institutions and professionals to provide social and medical care in the most cost-effective way. In 2006 the Portuguese government created the Portuguese Network for Integrated Care Development (PNICD) to solve the existing long-term gap in social support and healthcare. On what concerns health workforce, the Portuguese government already recognized the importance of redefine careers keeping professional motivation and satisfaction. Aim of the study: This study aims to contribute new evidence to the debate surrounding integrated care and skills mix policies in Europe. It also seeks to provide the first evidence that incorporates both the current dynamics of implementing integrated care in Portugal and the developments of international literature. The first ambition of our study is to contribute to the growing interest in integrated care and to the ongoing research in this area by identifying its different approaches and retrieve a number of experiences in some European countries. Our second goal of this research is to produce an update on the knowledge developed on skills mix to the international healthcare management community and to policy makers involved in reforming healthcare systems and organizations. To better inform Portuguese health policies makers in a third stage we explore the current dynamics of implementing integrated care in Portugal and contextualize them with the developments reported in the international literature. Methodology: This is essentially an exploratory and descriptive study using qualitative methodology. In order to identify integrated care approaches in Europe, a systematic literature review was undertaken which resulted in a paper published in the Journal of Management and Marketing in Health care titled: Approaches to developing integrated care in Europe: a systematic literature review. This article was recommended and included into a list of references identified by The King's Fund Library. A second systematic literature review was undertaken which resulted in a paper published in the International Journal of Healthcare Management titled: Skills mix in healthcare: An international update for the management debate. Semi-structured interviews were performed on experts representing the regional coordination teams of the Portuguese Network for Integrated Care Development. In a last stage a questionnaire survey was developed based on the findings of both systematic literature reviews and semi-structured interviews. Conclusions: Even though integrated care is a worldwide trend in health care reforms, there is no unique definition. Definitions can be grouped according to their sectorial focus: community-based care, combined health and social care, combined acute and primary care, the integration of providers, and in a more comprehensive approach the whole health system. Indeed, models that seek to apply the principles of integrated care have a similar background and are continually evolving and depend on the different initiatives taken at national level. . Despite the fact that we cannot argue that there is one single set typology of models for integrated care, it is possible to identify and categorize some of the basic approaches that have been taken in attempts to implement integrated care according to: changes in organizational structure, workforce reconfiguring, and changes in the financing system. The systematic literature review on skills mix showed that despite the widely acknowledged interest on skills mix initiatives there is a lack of evidence on skills mix implications, constraints, outcomes, and quality impact that would allow policy makers to take sustained and evidence-based decisions. Within the Portuguese health system, the integrated care approach is rather organizational and financial, whereas little attention is given to workforce integration. On what concerns workforce planning Portugal it is still in the stage of analyzing the acceptability of health workforce skills mix. In line with the international approaches, integration of health and social services and bridging primary and acute care are the main goals of the national government strategy. The findings from our interviews clarify perceptions which show no discrepancy with the related literature but are rather scarce comparing to international experience. Informants hold a realistic but narrow view of integrated care related issues. They seem to be limited to the regional context, requiring a more comprehensive perspective. The questionnaire developed in this thesis is an instrument which, when applied, will allow policy makers to understand the basic set of concepts and managerial motivations behind national and regional integrated care programs. The instrument developed can foster evidence on the three essential components of integrated care policies: organizational, financial, and human resources development, and can give additional input on the context in which integrated care is being developed, the type of providers and organizations involved, barriers and constraints, and the workforce skills mix planning related strategies. The thesis was successful in recognizing differences between countries and interventions and the instrument developed will allow a better comprehension of the international options available and how to address the vital components of integrated care programs.

Enterprise reference lexicon building from business models

Nowadays, a significant increase on the demand for interoperable systems for exchanging data in business collaborative environments has been noticed. Consequently, cooperation agreements between each of the involved enterprises have been brought to light. However, due to the fact that even in a same community or domain, there is a big variety of knowledge representation not semantically coincident, which embodies the existence of interoperability problems in the enterprises information systems that need to be addressed. Moreover, in relation to this, most organizations face other problems about their information systems, as: 1) domain knowledge not being easily accessible by all the stakeholders (even intra-enterprise); 2) domain knowledge not being represented in a standard format; 3) and even if it is available in a standard format, it is not supported by semantic annotations or described using a common and understandable lexicon. This dissertation proposes an approach for the establishment of an enterprise reference lexicon from business models. It addresses the automation in the information models mapping for the reference lexicon construction. It aggregates a formal and conceptual representation of the business domain, with a clear definition of the used lexicon to facilitate an overall understanding by all the involved stakeholders, including non-IT personnel.

Learning facial-expression models with crowdsourcing

The computational power is increasing day by day. Despite that, there are some tasks that are still difficult or even impossible for a computer to perform. For example, while identifying a facial expression is easy for a human, for a computer it is an area in development. To tackle this and similar issues, crowdsourcing has grown as a way to use human computation in a large scale. Crowdsourcing is a novel approach to collect labels in a fast and cheap manner, by sourcing the labels from the crowds. However, these labels lack reliability since annotators are not guaranteed to have any expertise in the field. This fact has led to a new research area where we must create or adapt annotation models to handle these weaklylabeled data. Current techniques explore the annotators’ expertise and the task difficulty as variables that influences labels’ correction. Other specific aspects are also considered by noisy-labels analysis techniques. The main contribution of this thesis is the process to collect reliable crowdsourcing labels for a facial expressions dataset. This process consists in two steps: first, we design our crowdsourcing tasks to collect annotators labels; next, we infer the true label from the collected labels by applying state-of-art crowdsourcing algorithms. At the same time, a facial expression dataset is created, containing 40.000 images and respective labels. At the end, we publish the resulting dataset.