Development and validation of a risk score predicting substantial weight gain over 5 years in middle-aged European men and women.

BACKGROUND Identifying individuals at high risk of excess weight gain may help targeting prevention efforts at those at risk of various metabolic diseases associated with weight gain. Our aim was to develop a risk score to identify these individuals and validate it in an external population. METHODS We used lifestyle and nutritional data from 53°758 individuals followed for a median of 5.4 years from six centers of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) to develop a risk score to predict substantial weight gain (SWG) for the next 5 years (derivation sample). Assuming linear weight gain, SWG was defined as gaining ≥ 10% of baseline weight during follow-up. Proportional hazards models were used to identify significant predictors of SWG separately by EPIC center. Regression coefficients of predictors were pooled using random-effects meta-analysis. Pooled coefficients were used to assign weights to each predictor. The risk score was calculated as a linear combination of the predictors. External validity of the score was evaluated in nine other centers of the EPIC study (validation sample). RESULTS Our final model included age, sex, baseline weight, level of education, baseline smoking, sports activity, alcohol use, and intake of six food groups. The model's discriminatory ability measured by the area under a receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.64 (95% CI = 0.63-0.65) in the derivation sample and 0.57 (95% CI = 0.56-0.58) in the validation sample, with variation between centers. Positive and negative predictive values for the optimal cut-off value of ≥ 200 points were 9% and 96%, respectively. CONCLUSION The present risk score confidently excluded a large proportion of individuals from being at any appreciable risk to develop SWG within the next 5 years. Future studies, however, may attempt to further refine the positive prediction of the score.

Plasma phospholipid long-chain n-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids and body weight change.

OBJECTIVE We investigated the association between the proportion of long-chain n-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFA) in plasma phospholipids from blood samples drawn at enrollment and subsequent change in body weight. Sex, age, and BMI were considered as potential effect modifiers. METHOD A total of 1,998 women and men participating in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) were followed for a median of 4.9 years. The associations between the proportion of plasma phospholipid long-chain n-3 PUFA and change in weight were investigated using mixed-effect linear regression. RESULTS The proportion of long-chain n-3 PUFA was not associated with change in weight. Among all participants, the 1-year weight change was -0.7 g per 1% point higher long-chain n-3 PUFA level (95% confidence interval: -20.7 to 19.3). The results when stratified by sex, age, or BMI groups were not systematically different. CONCLUSION The results of this study suggest that the proportion of long-chain n-3 PUFA in plasma phospholipids is not associated with subsequent change in body weight within the range of exposure in the general population.

Smart homes as service platforms. Research report of ÄLYKOP sub-project “Competitive advantage from customer value”

In this report, we summarize results of our part of the ÄLYKOP-project on customer value creation in the intersection of the health care, ICT, forest and energy industries. The research directs to describe how industry transformation and convergence create new possibilities, business opportunities and even new industries.The report consists of findings which are presented former in academic publications. The publication discusses on customer value, service provision and resource basis of the novel concepts through multiple theorethical frameworks. The report is divided into three maim sections which are theoretical background, discussion on health care industry and evaluations regarding novel smart home concepts. Transaction cost economics and Resource- Based view on the firm provides the theoretical basis to analyze the prescribed phenomena. The health care industry analysis describes the most important changes in the demand conditions of health care services, and explores the features that are likely to open new business opportunities for a solution provider. The third part of the report on the smart home business provides illustrations few potential concepts that can be considered to provide solutions to economical problems which arise from aging of population. The results provide several recommendations for the smart home platform developers in public and private sectors. By the analysis, public organizations dominate service provision and private markets are emergent state at present. We argue that public-private partnerships are nececssary for creating key suppliers. Indeed, paying attion on appropriate regulation, service specifications and technology standards would foster diffusion of new services. The dynamics of the service provision networks is driven by need for new capabiltities which are required for adapting business concepts to new competitive situation. Finally, the smart home framework revealed links between conventionally distant business areas such as health care and energy distribution. The platform integrates functionalities different for purposes which however apply same resource basis.

Liderazgo educativo: revisión de la situación actual

Este trabajo lleva a cabo una compilación del material escrito acerca del liderazgo educativo, sus implicaciones sociales, educativas y culturales. Así mismo identifica las corrientes que actualmente predominan en el liderazgo educativo como es el Liderazgo pedagógico y el liderazgo administrativo. También brinda un acercamiento a los esfuerzos y la situación actual del liderazgo educativo en Colombia, con el fin de determinar si existe en efecto y liderazgo educativo efectivo en nuestro país. Este trabajo se lleva a cabo recopilando la información de la situación actual y literatura de varios países y encontrando puntos en comuna lo largo de los mismos.

Mental health of internally displaced preschool children: a cross-sectional study conducted in Bogotá, Colombia

A causa de los conflictos armados, como el de Colombia, se han desplazado por la fuerza a millones de personas, entre ellas una importante parte de la población infantil. Este estudio tuvo como objetivo evaluar la salud mental de los niños desplazados internos en edad preescolar en Bogotá Colombia, e identificar los determinantes de la salud mental en estos niños. Métodos: Estudio transversal realizado entre 279 niños que asisten a cuatro jardines infantiles en un barrio marginal de Bogotá. La salud mental infantil se evaluó con el instrumento validado de Comportamiento Infantil (CBCL) 1,5-5 años, aplicados a padres y cuidadores. Se realizo un análisis univariado y multivariado de regresión logística para evaluar la asociación entre el desplazamiento y la salud mental de los niños y para identificar las relaciones con la salud mental en los niños desplazados. Resultados: los Niños desplazados (n = 90) se identificaron con más frecuencia sobre los puntos de corte límite para las escalas CBCL que los no desplazados (n = 189) (por ejemplo, problemas totales 46,7 vs 22,8%;p \ 0,001). La asociación entre el desplazamiento y la presencia de problemas CBCL totales se mantuvo después del ajuste por factores socio-demográficos (OR Ajustado 3.3 del 95%: 1,5; 6,9). Donde la salud mental del cuidador explica en parte la asociación. En los niños desplazados, la salud mental del cuidador (p \ 0,01) y el funcionamiento familiar (p \ 0,01) se asociaron independientemente con la salud mental de los niños. La exposición a eventos traumáticos y el apoyo social también se asociaron con la salud mental del niño, sin embargo, las asociaciones no fueron independientes. Conclusión: En este barrio marginal de Bogotá, los niños en edad preescolar registrados como desplazados internos presentan peor salud mental que los no desplazados. El funcionamiento familiar y la salud mental del cuidador fueron fuerte e independientemente asociados con la salud mental de los niños y niñas desplazados.

Perfil neuropsicológico de personas adultas con VIH/SIDA

Los déficit neurológicos en el virus de inmunodeficiencia humana VIH, específicamente las alteraciones en el funcionamiento cognitivo, han estado presentes desde el inicio de su propagación y han sido una de las principales manifestaciones a lo largo de todas las etapas del virus. No obstante, gracias a los avances de la terapia antirretroviral se ha dado un aumento de la expectativa de vida de los pacientes, dándose de la misma manera un incremento en los déficits anteriormente mencionados. El objetivo del presente estudio es describir el perfil neuropsicológico de los pacientes con VIH y establecer si existen relaciones entre las funciones que se encuentren deterioradas, el tiempo de diagnóstico y la terapia antiretroviral. Para esto se llevo a cabo un estudio descriptivo de tipo exploratorio con el fin de medir las características de las funciones neuropsicológicas en un grupo de 24 pacientes pertenecientes al programa especial B24 del Hospital Universitario Mayor y Hospital de Barrios Unidos MÉDERI en Bogotá, Colombia. Para esto, se utilizó un protocolo de pruebas neuropsicológicas: Mini Mental StateExamination (MMSE), WAIS-III (sub-pruebas dígitos, letras y números, aritmética y semejanzas), Curva de aprendizaje auditivo verbal de Rey (RAVLT), WMS-III (sub-pruebas de recobro de historias y Localización), TMT A y B, Set Test de Isaacs, Figura Compleja de Rey y Test de Stroop. Dentro de los resultados se encontró que la medida de edad fue de 50 con un total de 19 hombres y 5 mujeres. Las funciones con mayor predominio de deterioro fueron la atención sostenida y alternante, la memoria declarativa, las funciones ejecutivas (específicamente en el control inhibitorio) y la velocidad de procesamiento, los pacientes presentan un rango de deterioro cognitivo leve (GDS 3). Se concluyó que el perfil de deterioro es mixto y que es necesario ampliar la muestra para obtener resultados más precisos en cuanto a las diferencias de acuerdo al tiempo de diagnóstico y la terapia antiretroviral.

Impacto financiero de la unificación del plan obligatorio de salud subsidiado (pos-s) en las empresas sociales del estado (ese) de mediana complejidad de Cundinamarca

A partir de la Ley 100 de 1993, el sistema de salud en Colombia ha presentado una serie de trasformaciones que buscan mejorar la prestación de los servicios y lograr cubrimiento de la población no favorecida y excluida del Plan Obligatorio de Salud (POS). Sin embargo, las Empresas sociales del Estado (ESE), en aras de dar cumplimiento a las disposiciones y normatividades que exige la ley, funcionan y prestan sus servicios acorde con los objetivos corporativos planteados por ellas mismas, a pesar de tener una gran cartera por parte de las Entidades Promotoras de Salud (EPS). El propósito de esta investigación es evaluar el impacto financiero en una muestra de cuatro hospitales públicos de Cundinamarca (las ESE San Rafael de Facatativá, Fusagasugá, Cáqueza, y el Salvador de Ubaté), luego de la aplicación del Acuerdo 032 del 2012 de la Comisión de Regulación en Salud (CRES). Se seleccionaron cuatro hospitales públicos de mediana complejidad de Cundinamarca, por ser uno de los departamentos más representativos en hospitales de este tipo. Se encontró una mayor convergencia en términos de estructura administrativa y financiera, lo que hace posible que la información obtenida sea comparable y útil para la medición en términos de presupuesto y liquidez. El incremento de la cartera y la disminución de la rotación de la misma, con la afectación respectiva de la liquidez y la rentabilidad, dificultan el logro de las instituciones como lo son la sostenibilidad y perdurabilidad. El cambio del pagador después de la aplicación de la norma incidió directamente en lo anterior; igualmente, traspasar la población no cubierta al régimen subsidiado eliminó el desembolso por parte de la Secretaría de Salud y lo trasladó a las EPS subsidiados, afectando directamente los tiempos de rotación de cartera como se documenta en el análisis.

La política comercial de Estados Unidos en el marco de la Organización Mundial del Comercio. Discurso vs. comportamiento con relación a prácticas anticompetitivas

El objetivo principal de esta monografía es identificar cuáles son las razones que justifican las contradicciones entre el discurso y el comportamiento de Estados Unidos en el marco de la Organización Mundial del Comercio, particularmente con relación a prácticas anticompetitivas derivadas del programa de protección a la agricultura del país. Para ello se analizan el interés nacional y los elementos de la seguridad nacional a partir de los cuales éste se ha construido. También se evalúan los procesos de formulación de política comercial y las interacciones entre los representantes políticos, las asociaciones de productores y el sector privado para mostrar como este comportamiento contradictorio corresponde a la legitimización de un interés particular.

Architecture & Research: a possible structure

This article results from three conferences organized by the research project titled “Architectural research framework” developed by the research center Architectural Lab – LabART – of the Lusófona University, and also by my personal experiences and dialogs with other members of the EAAE research committee. Architectural research always existed, but only recently some major questions have emerged, by the time that Europe started the last universitary reform on the 80’s. Two aspects are crucial in understanding the problematic that we are referring to. On the one hand we verify that the architectural teaching should maintain the articulation and close relationship between the theoretical and practical aspects. On the other hand, there is a need to confer academic degrees, as the MsC and PhD’s in the Faculties of Architecture. Inevitably, discussions began about the scientificity of architecture (its grounding), the types of research, methodological models, as well as on the evaluation criteria and the quality of research, or the relevance of the results. We will try to approach some of these discussions, and by the end, establish a basic structure that allows us to obtain an open model for research in architecture.

Age-specific survival of male Golden-cheeked Warblers on the Fort Hood Military Reservation, Texas

Population models are essential components of large-scale conservation and management plans for the federally endangered Golden-cheeked Warbler (Setophaga chrysoparia; hereafter GCWA). However, existing models are based on vital rate estimates calculated using relatively small data sets that are now more than a decade old. We estimated more current, precise adult and juvenile apparent survival (Φ) probabilities and their associated variances for male GCWAs. In addition to providing estimates for use in population modeling, we tested hypotheses about spatial and temporal variation in Φ. We assessed whether a linear trend in Φ or a change in the overall mean Φ corresponded to an observed increase in GCWA abundance during 1992-2000 and if Φ varied among study plots. To accomplish these objectives, we analyzed long-term GCWA capture-resight data from 1992 through 2011, collected across seven study plots on the Fort Hood Military Reservation using a Cormack-Jolly-Seber model structure within program MARK. We also estimated Φ process and sampling variances using a variance-components approach. Our results did not provide evidence of site-specific variation in adult Φ on the installation. Because of a lack of data, we could not assess whether juvenile Φ varied spatially. We did not detect a strong temporal association between GCWA abundance and Φ. Mean estimates of Φ for adult and juvenile male GCWAs for all years analyzed were 0.47 with a process variance of 0.0120 and a sampling variance of 0.0113 and 0.28 with a process variance of 0.0076 and a sampling variance of 0.0149, respectively. Although juvenile Φ did not differ greatly from previous estimates, our adult Φ estimate suggests previous GCWA population models were overly optimistic with respect to adult survival. These updated Φ probabilities and their associated variances will be incorporated into new population models to assist with GCWA conservation decision making.

A simple syllogism-solving test: empirical findings and implications for g research

It has been reported that the ability to solve syllogisms is highly g-loaded. In the present study, using a self-administered shortened version of a syllogism-solving test, the BAROCO Short, we examined whether robust findings generated by previous research regarding IQ scores were also applicable to BAROCO Short scores. Five syllogism-solving problems were included in a questionnaire as part of a postal survey conducted by the Keio Twin Research Center. Data were collected from 487 pairs of twins (1021 individuals) who were Japanese junior high or high school students (ages 13–18) and from 536 mothers and 431 fathers. Four findings related to IQ were replicated: 1) The mean level increased gradually during adolescence, stayed unchanged from the 30s to the early 50s, and subsequently declined after the late 50s. 2) The scores for both children and parents were predicted by the socioeconomic status of the family. 3) The genetic effect increased, although the shared environmental effect decreased during progression from adolescence to adulthood. 4) Children's scores were genetically correlated with school achievement. These findings further substantiate the close association between syllogistic reasoning ability and g.

Complex rearrangements in patients with duplications of MECP2 can occur by fork stalling and template switching

Duplication at the Xq28 band including the MECP2 gene is one of the most common genomic rearrangements identified in neurodevelopmentally delayed males. Such duplications are non-recurrent and can be generated by a non-homologous end joining (NHEJ) mechanism. We investigated the potential mechanisms for MECP2 duplication and examined whether genomic architectural features may play a role in their origin using a custom designed 4-Mb tiling-path oligonucleotide array CGH assay. Each of the 30 patients analyzed showed a unique duplication varying in size from similar to 250 kb to similar to 2.6 Mb. Interestingly, in 77% of these non-recurrent duplications, the distal breakpoints grouped within a 215 kb genomic interval, located 47 kb telomeric to the MECP2 gene. The genomic architecture of this region contains both direct and inverted low-copy repeat (LCR) sequences; this same region undergoes polymorphic structural variation in the general population. Array CGH revealed complex rearrangements in eight patients; in six patients the duplication contained an embedded triplicated segment, and in the other two, stretches of non-duplicated sequences occurred within the duplicated region. Breakpoint junction sequencing was achieved in four duplications and identified an inversion in one patient, demonstrating further complexity. We propose that the presence of LCRs in the vicinity of the MECP2 gene may generate an unstable DNA structure that can induce DNA strand lesions, such as a collapsed fork, and facilitate a Fork Stalling and Template Switching event producing the complex rearrangements involving MECP2.