Data to Decision in a Dynamic Ocean: Robust Species Distribution Models and Spatial Decision Frameworks

Human use of the oceans is increasingly in conflict with conservation of endangered species. Methods for managing the spatial and temporal placement of industries such as military, fishing, transportation and offshore energy, have historically been post hoc; i.e. the time and place of human activity is often already determined before assessment of environmental impacts. In this dissertation, I build robust species distribution models in two case study areas, US Atlantic (Best et al. 2012) and British Columbia (Best et al. 2015), predicting presence and abundance respectively, from scientific surveys. These models are then applied to novel decision frameworks for preemptively suggesting optimal placement of human activities in space and time to minimize ecological impacts: siting for offshore wind energy development, and routing ships to minimize risk of striking whales. Both decision frameworks relate the tradeoff between conservation risk and industry profit with synchronized variable and map views as online spatial decision support systems.

For siting offshore wind energy development (OWED) in the U.S. Atlantic (chapter 4), bird density maps are combined across species with weights of OWED sensitivity to collision and displacement and 10 km2 sites are compared against OWED profitability based on average annual wind speed at 90m hub heights and distance to transmission grid. A spatial decision support system enables toggling between the map and tradeoff plot views by site. A selected site can be inspected for sensitivity to a cetaceans throughout the year, so as to capture months of the year which minimize episodic impacts of pre-operational activities such as seismic airgun surveying and pile driving.

Routing ships to avoid whale strikes (chapter 5) can be similarly viewed as a tradeoff, but is a different problem spatially. A cumulative cost surface is generated from density surface maps and conservation status of cetaceans, before applying as a resistance surface to calculate least-cost routes between start and end locations, i.e. ports and entrance locations to study areas. Varying a multiplier to the cost surface enables calculation of multiple routes with different costs to conservation of cetaceans versus cost to transportation industry, measured as distance. Similar to the siting chapter, a spatial decisions support system enables toggling between the map and tradeoff plot view of proposed routes. The user can also input arbitrary start and end locations to calculate the tradeoff on the fly.

Essential to the input of these decision frameworks are distributions of the species. The two preceding chapters comprise species distribution models from two case study areas, U.S. Atlantic (chapter 2) and British Columbia (chapter 3), predicting presence and density, respectively. Although density is preferred to estimate potential biological removal, per Marine Mammal Protection Act requirements in the U.S., all the necessary parameters, especially distance and angle of observation, are less readily available across publicly mined datasets.

In the case of predicting cetacean presence in the U.S. Atlantic (chapter 2), I extracted datasets from the online OBIS-SEAMAP geo-database, and integrated scientific surveys conducted by ship (n=36) and aircraft (n=16), weighting a Generalized Additive Model by minutes surveyed within space-time grid cells to harmonize effort between the two survey platforms. For each of 16 cetacean species guilds, I predicted the probability of occurrence from static environmental variables (water depth, distance to shore, distance to continental shelf break) and time-varying conditions (monthly sea-surface temperature). To generate maps of presence vs. absence, Receiver Operator Characteristic (ROC) curves were used to define the optimal threshold that minimizes false positive and false negative error rates. I integrated model outputs, including tables (species in guilds, input surveys) and plots (fit of environmental variables, ROC curve), into an online spatial decision support system, allowing for easy navigation of models by taxon, region, season, and data provider.

For predicting cetacean density within the inner waters of British Columbia (chapter 3), I calculated density from systematic, line-transect marine mammal surveys over multiple years and seasons (summer 2004, 2005, 2008, and spring/autumn 2007) conducted by Raincoast Conservation Foundation. Abundance estimates were calculated using two different methods: Conventional Distance Sampling (CDS) and Density Surface Modelling (DSM). CDS generates a single density estimate for each stratum, whereas DSM explicitly models spatial variation and offers potential for greater precision by incorporating environmental predictors. Although DSM yields a more relevant product for the purposes of marine spatial planning, CDS has proven to be useful in cases where there are fewer observations available for seasonal and inter-annual comparison, particularly for the scarcely observed elephant seal. Abundance estimates are provided on a stratum-specific basis. Steller sea lions and harbour seals are further differentiated by ‘hauled out’ and ‘in water’. This analysis updates previous estimates (Williams & Thomas 2007) by including additional years of effort, providing greater spatial precision with the DSM method over CDS, novel reporting for spring and autumn seasons (rather than summer alone), and providing new abundance estimates for Steller sea lion and northern elephant seal. In addition to providing a baseline of marine mammal abundance and distribution, against which future changes can be compared, this information offers the opportunity to assess the risks posed to marine mammals by existing and emerging threats, such as fisheries bycatch, ship strikes, and increased oil spill and ocean noise issues associated with increases of container ship and oil tanker traffic in British Columbia’s continental shelf waters.

Starting with marine animal observations at specific coordinates and times, I combine these data with environmental data, often satellite derived, to produce seascape predictions generalizable in space and time. These habitat-based models enable prediction of encounter rates and, in the case of density surface models, abundance that can then be applied to management scenarios. Specific human activities, OWED and shipping, are then compared within a tradeoff decision support framework, enabling interchangeable map and tradeoff plot views. These products make complex processes transparent for gaming conservation, industry and stakeholders towards optimal marine spatial management, fundamental to the tenets of marine spatial planning, ecosystem-based management and dynamic ocean management.

How did varying levels of intensity of the 2005 Pakistan earthquake differentially affect women’s fertility decisions and children’s health outcomes?

This paper uses a difference in difference model to investigate the impact of a large scale and high mortality 2005 earthquake in Pakistan on women’s fertility decisions and children’s health outcomes. Using a nationally representative, cross sectional DHS data from 2006 and geographical data from USGS, this paper investigates how variation in earthquake intensity levels can differentially impact total fertility for women and the likelihood of children suffering from diseases such as diarrhea, Acute Respiratory Infections (ARI) and fever. The post-earthquake results demonstrate a statistically significant increase in total fertility for areas closer to the epicenter of the earthquake, within a 100km radius of the rupture surface and at higher altitudes. Similarly, for children who were in-utero at the time of the earthquake, the probability of having early symptoms of ARI or fever was much smaller in lower earthquake intensity zones compared to the highest intensity zone.

Geochemical analysis of surface sediments from the ocean floor and from sea ice in the northern Atlantic and Arctic Oceans

Barium in marine terrigenous surface sediments of the European Nordic Seas is analysed to evaluate its potential as palaeoproductivity proxy. Biogenic Ba is calculated from Ba and Al data using a conventional approach. For the determination of appropriate detrital Ba/Al ratios a compilation of Ba and Al analyses in rocks and soils of the catchments surrounding the Nordic Seas is presented. The resulting average detrital Ba/Al ratio of 0.0070 is similar to global crustal average values. In the southern Nordic Seas the high input of basaltic material with a low Ba/Al ratio is evident from high values of magnetic susceptibility and low Al/Ti ratios. Most of the Ba in the marine surface sediments is of terrigenous and not of biogenic origin. Variability in the lithogenic composition has been considered by the application of regionally varying Ba/Al ratios. The biogenic Ba values are comparable with those observed in the central Arctic Ocean, they are lower than in other oceanic regions. Biogenic Ba values are correlated with other productivity proxies and with oceanographic data for a validation of the applicability in paleoceanography. In the Iceland Sea and partly in the marginal sea-ice zone of the Greenland Sea elevated values of biogenic Ba indicate seasonal phytoplankton blooms. In both areas paleoproductivities may be reconstructed based on Ba and Al data of sediment cores.

Interpolated maps of pollen percentages in Europe over the last 15,000 years

Aim Palaeoecological reconstructions document past vegetation change with estimates of rapid rates of changing species distribution limits that are often not matched by model simulations of climate-driven vegetation dynamics. Genetic surveys of extant plant populations have yielded new insight into continental vegetation histories, challenging traditional interpretations that had been based on pollen data. Our aim is to examine an updated continental pollen data set from Europe in the light of the new ideas about vegetation dynamics emerging from genetic research and vegetation modelling studies. Location Europe Methods: We use pollen data from the European Pollen Database (EPD) to construct interpolated maps of pollen percentages documenting change in distribution and abundance of major plant genera and the grass family in Europe over the last 15,000 years. Results: Our analyses confirm high rates of postglacial spread with at least 1000 metres per year for Corylus, Ulmus and Alnus and average rates of 400 metres per year for Tilia, Quercus, Fagus and Carpinus. The late Holocene expansions of Picea and Fagus populations in many European regions cannot be explained by migrational lag. Both taxa shift their population centres towards the Atlantic coast suggesting that climate may have played a role in the timing of their expansions. The slowest rates of spread were reconstructed for Abies. Main conclusions: The calculated rates of postglacial plant spread are higher in Europe than those from North America, which may be due to more rapid shifts in climate mediated by the Gulf Stream and westerly winds. Late Holocene anthropogenic land use practices in Europe had major effects on individual taxa, which in combination with climate change contributed to shifts in areas of abundance and dominance. The high rates of spread calculated from the European pollen data are consistent with the common tree species rapidly tracking early Holocene climate change and contribute to the debate on the consequences of global warming for plant distributions.

Bulk and amino acid parameters of core SO188-342KL from the Northern Bay of Bengal for the last 18 ka

The Northern Bay of Bengal (NBoB) is a globally important region for deep-sea organic matter (OM) deposition due to massive fluvial discharge from the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (G-B-M) rivers and moderate to high surface productivity. Previous studies have focused on carbon burial in turbiditic sediments of the Bengal Fan. However, little is known about the storage of carbon in pelagic and hemipelagic sediments of the Bay of Bengal over millennial time scales. This study presents a comprehensive history of OM origin and fate as well as a quantification of carbon sediment storage in the Eastern Bengal Slope (EBS) during the last 18 ka. Bulk organic proxies (TOC, TIC, TN, d13CTOC, d15NTN) and content and composition of total hydrolysable amino acids (THAA) in a sediment core (SO188-342KL) from the EBS were analyzed. Three periods of high OM accumulation were identified: the Late Glacial (LG), the Bölling/Alleröd (B/A), and the Early Holocene Climatic Optimum (EHCO). Lower eustatic sea level before 15 ka BP allowed a closer connection between the EBS and the fluvial debouch, favoring high terrestrial OM input to the core site. This connection was progressively lost between 15 and 7 ka BP as sea level rose to its present height and terrestrial OM input decreased considerably. Export and preservation of marine OM was stimulated during periods of summer monsoon intensification (B/A and EHCO) as a consequence of higher surface productivity enhanced by cyclonic-eddy nutrient pumping and fluvial nutrient delivery into the photic zone. Changes in the THAA composition indicate that the marine plankton community structure shifted from calcareous-dominated before 13 ka BP to siliceous-dominated afterwards. They also indicate that the relative proportion of marine versus terrestrial OM deposited at site 342KL was primarily driven by relative sea level and enlarged during the Holocene. The ballasting effect of lithogenic particles during periods of high coastal proximity and/or enhanced fluvial discharge promoted the export and preservation of OM. The high organic carbon accumulation rates in the EBS during the LG (18-17 ka BP) were 5-fold higher than at present and comparable to those of glacial upwelling areas. Despite the differences in sediment and OM transport and storage among the Western and Eastern sectors of the NBoB, this region remains important for global carbon sequestration during sea level low-stands. In addition, the summer monsoon was a key promotor of terrestrial and marine OM export to the deep-ocean, highlighting its relevance as regulator of the global carbon budget.

(Table 1) Sample locations and clay mineral data of sediment surface samples from the Barents Sea region

A new surface sediment sample set gained in the western Barents Sea by the MAREANO program has been analysed for basic clay mineral assemblages. Distribution maps including additional samples from earlier German research cruises to and off Svalbard are compiled. Some trends in the clay mineral assemblages are related to the sub-Barents Sea geology because the Quaternary sediment cover is rather thin. Additionally, land masses like Svalbard and northern Scandinavia dominate the clay mineral signal with their erosional products. Dense bottom water, very often of brine origin, that flows within deep troughs, such as the Storfjorden or Bear Island Trough, transport the clay mineral signal from their origin to the Norwegian-Greenland Sea.

U, FE, AND LI ISOTOPE RATIOS IN THE MINERALIZED AND BARREN AREAS OF THE KOMBOLGIE BASIN

The Paleo- to Meso-Proterozoic Jabiluka unconformity related uranium mine is located within the Alligator River Uranium Field, found in the Northern Territories, Australia. The uranium ore is hosted in the late middle Paleoproterozoic Cahill Formation, which is unconformably overlain by a group of unmetamorphosed conglomerates known as the Kombolgie subgroup. The Kombolgie subgroup provided the source for oxidized basinal brines, carrying U as the mobile form U(VI), which interacted with reducing lithologies in the Cahill formation, thus reducing U(VI) to the solid U(IV), and leading to the precipitation of uraninite (UO2). In order to characterize fluid interaction with the ore body and compare that to areas without mineralization, several isotopic tracers were studied on a series of clay samples from drill core at Jabiluka as well as in barren areas throughout the ARUF. Among the potential tracers, three were selected: U (redox sensitive and recent fluid mobilization), Fe (redox sensitive), and Li (fractionated by hydrothermal fluids and adsorption reactions). δ238U values were found to be closely linked to the mineralogy, with samples with higher K/Al ratios (indicating high illite and low chlorite concentrations) having higher δ238U values. This demonstrates that 235U preferentially absorbs onto the surface of chlorite during hydrothermal circulation. In addition, δ234U values lie far from secular equilibrium (δ234U of 30‰), indicating there was addition or removal of 234U from the surface of the samples from recent (<2.5Ma) interactions of mobile fluids. δ57Fe values were found to be related to lithology and spatially to known uranium deposits. Decreasing δ57Fe values were found with increasing depth to the unconformity in a drill hole directly above the ore zone, but not in drill holes in the barren area. Similarly to δ238U, δ7Li is found to correlate with mineralogy, with higher δ7Li values associated with samples with more chlorite. In addition, higher δ7Li values are found at greater depth throughout the basin, indicating that the direction of the mineralizing fluid circulation was upwards from the Cahill formation to the Kombolgie subgroup.

Fossil associations from the middle and upper Eocene strata of the Pamplona Basin and surrounding areas (Navarre, western Pyrenees)

Fossil associations from the middle and upper Eocene (Bartonian and Priabonian) sedimentary succession of the Pamplona Basin are described. This succession was accumulated in the western part of the South Pyrenean peripheral foreland basin and extends from deep-marine turbiditic (Ezkaba Sandstone Formation) to deltaic (Pamplona Marl, Ardanatz Sandstone and Ilundain Marl formations) and marginal marine deposits (Gendulain Formation). The micropalaeontological content is high. It is dominated by foraminifera, and common ostracods and other microfossils are also present. The fossil ichnoasssemblages include at least 23 ichnogenera and 28 ichnospecies indicative of Nereites, Cruziana, Glossifungites and ?Scoyenia-Mermia ichnofacies. Body macrofossils of 78 taxa corresponding to macroforaminifera, sponges, corals, bryozoans, brachiopods, annelids, molluscs, arthropods, echinoderms and vertebrates have been identified. Both the number of ichnotaxa and of species (e. g. bryozoans, molluscs and condrichthyans) may be considerably higher. Body fossil assemblages are comparable to those from the Eocene of the Nord Pyrenean area (Basque Coast), and also to those from the Eocene of the west-central and eastern part of South Pyrenean area (Aragon and Catalonia). At the European scale, the molluscs assemblages seem endemic from the Pyrenean area, although several Tethyan (Italy and Alps) and Northern elements (Paris basin and Normandy) have been recorded. Palaeontological data of studied sedimentary units fit well with the shallowing process that throughout the middle and late Eocene occurs in the area, according to the sedimentological and stratigraphical data.

Exploring the joint compositional variability of major components and trace elements in the Tellus soil geochemistry survey (Northern Ireland)

The complexity of modern geochemical data sets is increasing in several aspects (number of available samples, number of elements measured, number of matrices analysed, geological-environmental variability covered, etc), hence it is becoming increasingly necessary to apply statistical methods to elucidate their structure. This paper presents an exploratory analysis of one such complex data set, the Tellus geochemical soil survey of Northern Ireland (NI). This exploratory analysis is based on one of the most fundamental exploratory tools, principal component analysis (PCA) and its graphical representation as a biplot, albeit in several variations: the set of elements included (only major oxides vs. all observed elements), the prior transformation applied to the data (none, a standardization or a logratio transformation) and the way the covariance matrix between components is estimated (classical estimation vs. robust estimation). Results show that a log-ratio PCA (robust or classical) of all available elements is the most powerful exploratory setting, providing the following insights: the first two processes controlling the whole geochemical variation in NI soils are peat coverage and a contrast between “mafic” and “felsic” background lithologies; peat covered areas are detected as outliers by a robust analysis, and can be then filtered out if required for further modelling; and peat coverage intensity can be quantified with the %Br in the subcomposition (Br, Rb, Ni).

Territoriality and Migration in a Divided Society: Lay Theories of Citizenship and Place in Northern Ireland

The study of citizenship has increasingly focused on the ways in which spatialized understandings of the concept can be used to marginalise and exclude social groups: exclusive constructions of national boundaries, local neighbourhoods and public spaces can deny marginalised groups their social and political rights. Less attention has been paid to how constructions of place can accommodate different groups’ rights and promote peaceful coexistence. This is particularly important in locations where migration disrupts existing understandings (‘lay theories’) of the relationship between residency, identity and collective rights. The present research examines how spatialized understandings of citizenship shape perceptions of intergroup mixing in previously segregated areas of a post-conflict society. Critical Discursive Social Psychological (CDSP) analysis of 30 interviews with long-term residents and recent migrants to increasingly mixed areas of Belfast shows that, while all pa
rticipants acknowledged Northern Ireland’s territorialisation, different lay theories of citizenship underpin the possibility and desirability of intergroup coexistence. Long-term residents drew upon understandings of the negative citizenry of the outgroup to argue against the possibility of peaceful coexistence within their locale, while recent incomers gave evidence of their own experiences of good citizenship within the shared spaces of neighbourhood to demonstrate that this could and should be achieved. The implications of lay theories of citizenship for the study of residential migration and mixing are discussed

A state-of-the-art review and feasibility analysis of high altitude wind power in Northern Ireland

In many countries wind energy has become an indispensable part of the electricity generation mix. The opportunity for ground based wind turbine systems are becoming more and more constrained due to limitations on turbine hub heights, blade lengths and location restrictions linked to environmental and permitting issues including special areas of conservation and social acceptance due to the visual and noise impacts. In the last decade there have been numerous proposals to harness high altitude winds, such as tethered kites, airfoils and dirigible based rotors. These technologies are designed to operate above the neutral atmospheric boundary layer of 1,300 m, which are subject to more powerful and persistent winds thus generating much higher electricity capacities. This paper presents an in-depth review of the state-of-the-art of high altitude wind power, evaluates the technical and economic viability of deploying high altitude wind power as a resource in Northern Ireland and identifies the optimal locations through considering wind data and geographical constraints. The key findings show that the total viable area over Northern Ireland for high altitude wind harnessing devices is 5109.6 km2, with an average wind power density of 1,998 W/m2 over a 20-year span, at a fixed altitude of 3,000 m. An initial budget for a 2MW pumping kite device indicated a total cost £1,751,402 thus proving to be economically viable with other conventional wind-harnessing devices.

Northern Ireland Neighbourhood Watch: Participatory Mapping and Socio Demographic Uptake

Northern Ireland Neighbourhood Watch (NINW) was formally introduced to Northern Ireland in 2004 by the Police Service of Northern Ireland, Northern Ireland Policing Board and Northern Ireland Office. However, there has been little research to data as to participation in, or success of, the schemes. This research report provides one of the few empirical examinations of NINW. Using GIS mapping and socio-demographic data from the Northern Ireland Neighbourhood Information Service (NINIS), the research explores participation in NINW schemes set against religion, deprivation and crime levels at the Census Output Area (COA) level across Northern Ireland. While the research largely confirms the limited impact of neighbourhood schemes as noted in international literature, at a local level in Northern Ireland the findings evidence a distinct pattern of uptake, with the vast majority of participants in the schemes residing in affluent, low-crime, mainly Protestant areas of the country

Statistics on Smoking Cessation Services in Northern Ireland: 2014/15

This information release, produced by the Department of Health, Social Services and Public Safety’s Information and Analysis Directorate, provides information on smoking cessation services. Data are included on the monitoring of smoking cessation services in Northern Ireland during the period 1st April 2014 to 31st March 2015. This report also provides an analysis of data collected in 2014/15 in respect of clients who set a quit date during 2013/14 (52 week follow-up). Information contained within this report was downloaded from a web based recording system. Figures here are correct as of 1st September 2015. The Ten Year Tobacco Control Strategy for Northern Ireland aims to see fewer people starting to smoke, more smokers quitting and protecting people from tobacco smoke. It is aimed at the entire population of Northern Ireland as smoking and its harmful effects cut across all barriers of class, race and gender. There is a strong relationship between smoking and inequalities, with more people dying of smoking-related illnesses in disadvantaged areas of Northern Ireland than in its more affluent areas. In order to ensure that more focused action is directed to where it is needed the most, three priority groups have been identified. They are: · Children and young people; · Disadvantaged people who smoke; and · Pregnant women, and their partners, who smoke. The Public Health Agency (PHA) is responsible for implementing the strategy and the development of cessation services is a key element of the overall aim to tackle smoking. The 2013/14 Health Survey Northern Ireland reported that 22% of adults currently smoke (23% of males and 21% of females). In addition, in 2013, the Young Persons’ Behaviour and Attitude Survey (YPBAS) found that 6% of pupils aged between and 11 and 16 smoked (7% of males and 5% of females).      

Radon: indicative atlas for Northern Ireland

Radon Affected Area potential in Northern Ireland was estimated using a joint mapping method. This method allows variation of radon potential both between and within geological units. The estimates are based on the results of radon measurements and geological information for more than 23,000 homes. Elevated radon potential is presented here as indicative maps based on the highest radon potential for each 1 kilometre square of the Irish grid. The full definitive detail is published as a digital dataset for geographical information systems, which can be licensed. The estimated radon potential for an individual home can be obtained through the Public Health England (PHE) UKradon website. The work was partially funded by the Northern Ireland Environment Agency and was prepared jointly by PHE and the British Geological Survey. This report replaces the 2009 review and atlas (HPA-RPD-061).

NI health and social care inequalities monitoring system (HSCIMS) - health inequalities in Northern Ireland: key facts 2015

This key facts publication provides an interim update to the NI health & social care inequalities monitoring system (HSCIMS) regional reports which are published every other year. It presents a summary of the latest position and inequality gaps between the most deprived areas and both the least deprived areas and the NI average in addition to a regional comparison with rural areas for a range of health outcomes included within the HSCIMS series, in addition to the health survey Northern Ireland (HSNI).