A generalized fuzzy linguistic model for predicting component concentrations in an optical gas sensing system

Motivated by environmental protection concerns, monitoring the flue gas of thermal power plant is now often mandatory due to the need to ensure that emission levels stay within safe limits. Optical based gas sensing systems are increasingly employed for this purpose, with regression techniques used to relate gas optical absorption spectra to the concentrations of specific gas components of interest (NO_x, SO₂ etc.). Accurately predicting gas concentrations from absorption spectra remains a challenging problem due to the presence of nonlinearities in the relationships and the high-dimensional and correlated nature of the spectral data. This article proposes a generalized fuzzy linguistic model (GFLM) to address this challenge. The GFLM is made up of a series of “If-Then” fuzzy rules. The absorption spectra are input variables in the rule antecedent. The rule consequent is a general nonlinear polynomial function of the absorption spectra. Model parameters are estimated using least squares and gradient descent optimization algorithms. The performance of GFLM is compared with other traditional prediction models, such as partial least squares, support vector machines, multilayer perceptron neural networks and radial basis function networks, for two real flue gas spectral datasets: one from a coal-fired power plant and one from a gas-fired power plant. The experimental results show that the generalized fuzzy linguistic model has good predictive ability, and is competitive with alternative approaches, while having the added advantage of providing an interpretable model.

A long-term energy efficiency prediction model for the Brazilian automotive industry

According to law number 12.715/2012, Brazilian government instituted guidelines for a program named Inovar-Auto. In this context, energy efficiency is a survival requirement for Brazilian automotive industry from September 2016. As proposed by law, energy efficiency is not going to be calculated by models only. It is going to be calculated by the whole universe of new vehicles registered. In this scenario, the composition of vehicles sold in market will be a key factor on profits of each automaker. Energy efficiency and its consequences should be taken into consideration in all of its aspects. In this scenario, emerges the following question: which is the efficiency curve of one automaker for long term, allowing them to adequate to rules, keep balancing on investment in technologies, increasing energy efficiency without affecting competitiveness of product lineup? Among several variables to be considered, one can highlight the analysis of manufacturing costs, customer value perception and market share, which characterizes this problem as a multi-criteria decision-making. To tackle the energy efficiency problem required by legislation, this paper proposes a framework of multi-criteria decision-making. The proposed framework combines Delphi group and Analytic Hierarchy Process to identify suitable alternatives for automakers to incorporate in main Brazilian vehicle segments. A forecast model based on artificial neural networks was used to estimate vehicle sales demand to validate expected results. This approach is demonstrated with a real case study using public vehicles sales data of Brazilian automakers and public energy efficiency data.

Evans functions for integral neural field equations with Heaviside firing rate function

In this paper we show how to construct the Evans function for traveling wave solutions of integral neural field equations when the firing rate function is a Heaviside. This allows a discussion of wave stability and bifurcation as a function of system parameters, including the speed and strength of synaptic coupling and the speed of axonal signals. The theory is illustrated with the construction and stability analysis of front solutions to a scalar neural field model and a limiting case is shown to recover recent results of L. Zhang [On stability of traveling wave solutions in synaptically coupled neuronal networks, Differential and Integral Equations, 16, (2003), pp.513-536.]. Traveling fronts and pulses are considered in more general models possessing either a linear or piecewise constant recovery variable. We establish the stability of coexisting traveling fronts beyond a front bifurcation and consider parameter regimes that support two stable traveling fronts of different speed. Such fronts may be connected and depending on their relative speed the resulting region of activity can widen or contract. The conditions for the contracting case to lead to a pulse solution are established. The stability of pulses is obtained for a variety of examples, in each case confirming a previously conjectured stability result. Finally we show how this theory may be used to describe the dynamic instability of a standing pulse that arises in a model with slow recovery. Numerical simulations show that such an instability can lead to the shedding of a pair of traveling pulses.

Exotic dynamics in a firing rate model of neural tissue with threshold accommodation

Many of the equations describing the dynamics of neural systems are written in terms of firing rate functions, which themselves are often taken to be threshold functions of synaptic activity. Dating back to work by Hill in 1936 it has been recognized that more realistic models of neural tissue can be obtained with the introduction of state-dependent dynamic thresholds. In this paper we treat a specific phenomenological model of threshold accommodation that mimics many of the properties originally described by Hill. Importantly we explore the consequences of this dynamic threshold at the tissue level, by modifying a standard neural field model of Wilson-Cowan type. As in the case without threshold accommodation classical Mexican-Hat connectivity is shown to allow for the existence of spatially localized states (bumps) in both one and two dimensions. Importantly an analysis of bump stability in one dimension, using recent Evans function techniques, shows that bumps may undergo instabilities leading to the emergence of both breathers and traveling waves. Moreover, a similar analysis for traveling pulses leads to the conditions necessary to observe a stable traveling breather. In the regime where a bump solution does not exist direct numerical simulations show the possibility of self-replicating bumps via a form of bump splitting. Simulations in two space dimensions show analogous localized and traveling solutions to those seen in one dimension. Indeed dynamical behavior in this neural model appears reminiscent of that seen in other dissipative systems that support localized structures, and in particular those of coupled cubic complex Ginzburg-Landau equations. Further numerical explorations illustrate that the traveling pulses in this model exhibit particle like properties, similar to those of dispersive solitons observed in some three component reaction-diffusion systems. A preliminary account of this work first appeared in S Coombes and M R Owen, Bumps, breathers, and waves in a neural network with spike frequency adaptation, Physical Review Letters 94 (2005), 148102(1-4).

Tourism demand modelling and forecasting with artificial neural network models: the Mozambique case study

This study is aimed to model and forecast the tourism demand for Mozambique for the period from January 2004 to December 2013 using artificial neural networks models. The number of overnight stays in Hotels was used as representative of the tourism demand. A set of independent variables were experimented in the input of the model, namely: Consumer Price Index, Gross Domestic Product and Exchange Rates, of the outbound tourism markets, South Africa, United State of America, Mozambique, Portugal and the United Kingdom. The best model achieved has 6.5% for Mean Absolute Percentage Error and 0.696 for Pearson correlation coefficient. A model like this with high accuracy of forecast is important for the economic agents to know the future growth of this activity sector, as it is important for stakeholders to provide products, services and infrastructures and for the hotels establishments to adequate its level of capacity to the tourism demand.

Model Probability in Self-organising Maps

Growing models have been widely used for clustering or topology learning. Traditionally these models work on stationary environments, grow incrementally and adapt their nodes to a given distribution based on global parameters. In this paper, we present an enhanced unsupervised self-organising network for the modelling of visual objects. We first develop a framework for building non-rigid shapes using the growth mechanism of the self-organising maps, and then we define an optimal number of nodes without overfitting or underfitting the network based on the knowledge obtained from information-theoretic considerations. We present experimental results for hands and we quantitatively evaluate the matching capabilities of the proposed method with the topographic product.

Functional, clustered, feedforward, and mesoscale brain networks

The brain is a network spanning multiple scales from subcellular to macroscopic. In this thesis I present four projects studying brain networks at different levels of abstraction. The first involves determining a functional connectivity network based on neural spike trains and using a graph theoretical method to cluster groups of neurons into putative cell assemblies. In the second project I model neural networks at a microscopic level. Using diferent clustered wiring schemes, I show that almost identical spatiotemporal activity patterns can be observed, demonstrating that there is a broad neuro-architectural basis to attain structured spatiotemporal dynamics. Remarkably, irrespective of the precise topological mechanism, this behavior can be predicted by examining the spectral properties of the synaptic weight matrix. The third project introduces, via two circuit architectures, a new paradigm for feedforward processing in which inhibitory neurons have the complex and pivotal role in governing information flow in cortical network models. Finally, I analyze axonal projections in sleep deprived mice using data collected as part of the Allen Institute's Mesoscopic Connectivity Atlas. After normalizing for experimental variability, the results indicate there is no single explanatory difference in the mesoscale network between control and sleep deprived mice. Using machine learning techniques, however, animal classification could be done at levels significantly above chance. This reveals that intricate changes in connectivity do occur due to chronic sleep deprivation.

An Evaluative Model to Assess the Organizational Efficiency in Training Corporations

In an organisation any optimization process of its issues faces increasing challenges and requires new approaches to the organizational phenomenon. Indeed, in this work it is addressed the problematic of efficiency dynamics through intangible variables that may support a different view of the corporations. It focuses on the challenges that information management and the incorporation of context brings to competitiveness. Thus, in this work it is presented the analysis and development of an intelligent decision support system in terms of a formal agenda built on a Logic Programming based methodology to problem solving, complemented with an attitude to computing grounded on Artificial Neural Networks. The proposed model is in itself fairly precise, with an overall accuracy, sensitivity and specificity with values higher than 90 %. The proposed solution is indeed unique, catering for the explicit treatment of incomplete, unknown, or even self-contradictory information, either in a quantitative or qualitative arrangement.

End-to-end Deep Metric Learning con Vision-Language Model per il Fashion Image Captioning

L'image captioning è un task di machine learning che consiste nella generazione di una didascalia, o caption, che descriva le caratteristiche di un'immagine data in input. Questo può essere applicato, ad esempio, per descrivere in dettaglio i prodotti in vendita su un sito di e-commerce, migliorando l'accessibilità del sito web e permettendo un acquisto più consapevole ai clienti con difficoltà visive. La generazione di descrizioni accurate per gli articoli di moda online è importante non solo per migliorare le esperienze di acquisto dei clienti, ma anche per aumentare le vendite online. Oltre alla necessità di presentare correttamente gli attributi degli articoli, infatti, descrivere i propri prodotti con il giusto linguaggio può contribuire a catturare l'attenzione dei clienti. In questa tesi, ci poniamo l'obiettivo di sviluppare un sistema in grado di generare una caption che descriva in modo dettagliato l'immagine di un prodotto dell'industria della moda dato in input, sia esso un capo di vestiario o un qualche tipo di accessorio. A questo proposito, negli ultimi anni molti studi hanno proposto soluzioni basate su reti convoluzionali e LSTM. In questo progetto proponiamo invece un'architettura encoder-decoder, che utilizza il modello Vision Transformer per la codifica delle immagini e GPT-2 per la generazione dei testi. Studiamo inoltre come tecniche di deep metric learning applicate in end-to-end durante l'addestramento influenzino le metriche e la qualità delle caption generate dal nostro modello.

Predire la borsa valori con language model neurali

Nonostante lo scetticismo di molti studiosi circa la possibilità di prevedere l'andamento della borsa valori, esistono svariate teorie ipotizzanti la possibilità di utilizzare le informazioni conosciute per predirne i movimenti futuri. L’avvento dell’intelligenza artificiale nella seconda parte dello scorso secolo ha permesso di ottenere risultati rivoluzionari in svariati ambiti, tanto che oggi tale disciplina trova ampio impiego nella nostra vita quotidiana in molteplici forme. In particolare, grazie al machine learning, è stato possibile sviluppare sistemi intelligenti che apprendono grazie ai dati, riuscendo a modellare problemi complessi. Visto il successo di questi sistemi, essi sono stati applicati anche all’arduo compito di predire la borsa valori, dapprima utilizzando i dati storici finanziari della borsa come fonte di conoscenza, e poi, con la messa a punto di tecniche di elaborazione del linguaggio naturale umano (NLP), anche utilizzando dati in linguaggio naturale, come il testo di notizie finanziarie o l’opinione degli investitori. Questo elaborato ha l’obiettivo di fornire una panoramica sull’utilizzo delle tecniche di machine learning nel campo della predizione del mercato azionario, partendo dalle tecniche più elementari per arrivare ai complessi modelli neurali che oggi rappresentano lo stato dell’arte. Vengono inoltre formalizzati il funzionamento e le tecniche che si utilizzano per addestrare e valutare i modelli di machine learning, per poi effettuare un esperimento in cui a partire da dati finanziari e soprattutto testuali si tenterà di predire correttamente la variazione del valore dell’indice di borsa S&P 500 utilizzando un language model basato su una rete neurale.

A deep learning model via thermodynamics and condensed matter physics

Deep Learning architectures give brilliant results in a large variety of fields, but a comprehensive theoretical description of their inner functioning is still lacking. In this work, we try to understand the behavior of neural networks by modelling in the frameworks of Thermodynamics and Condensed Matter Physics. We approach neural networks as in a real laboratory and we measure the frequency spectrum and the entropy of the weights of the trained model. The stochasticity of the training occupies a central role in the dynamics of the weights and makes it difficult to assimilate neural networks to simple physical systems. However, the analogy with Thermodynamics and the introduction of a well defined temperature leads us to an interesting result: if we eliminate from a CNN the "hottest" filters, the performance of the model remains the same, whereas, if we eliminate the "coldest" ones, the performance gets drastically worst. This result could be exploited in the realization of a training loop which eliminates the filters that do not contribute to loss reduction. In this way, the computational cost of the training will be lightened and more importantly this would be done by following a physical model. In any case, beside important practical applications, our analysis proves that a new and improved modeling of Deep Learning systems can pave the way to new and more efficient algorithms.

Neural Network Based UAV Fault Tolerant Control with Aerodynamic Disturbance Estimation and Compensation

In this thesis, the problem of controlling a quadrotor UAV is considered. It is done by presenting an original control system, designed as a combination of Neural Networks and Disturbance Observer, using a composite learning approach for a system of the second order, which is a novel methodology in literature. After a brief introduction about the quadrotors, the concepts needed to understand the controller are presented, such as the main notions of advanced control, the basic structure and design of a Neural Network, the modeling of a quadrotor and its dynamics. The full simulator, developed on the MATLAB Simulink environment, used throughout the whole thesis, is also shown. For the guidance and control purposes, a Sliding Mode Controller, used as a reference, it is firstly introduced, and its theory and implementation on the simulator are illustrated. Finally the original controller is introduced, through its novel formulation, and implementation on the model. The effectiveness and robustness of the two controllers are then proven by extensive simulations in all different conditions of external disturbance and faults.

Investigating perceptual multisensory impairments in Autism through a neural network: a possible neural implementation for the shift from cross-modal competition to facilitation

Resolution of multisensory deficits has been observed in teenagers with Autism Spectrum Disorders (ASD) for complex, social speech stimuli; this resolution extends to more basic multisensory processing, involving low-level stimuli. In particular, a delayed transition of multisensory integration (MSI) from a default state of competition to one of facilitation has been observed in ASD children. In other terms, the complete maturation of MSI is achieved later in ASD. In the present study a neuro-computational model is used to reproduce some patterns of behavior observed experimentally, modeling a bisensory reaction time task, in which auditory and visual stimuli are presented in random sequence alone (A or V) or together (AV). The model explains how the default competitive state can be implemented via mutual inhibition between primary sensory areas, and how the shift toward the classical multisensory facilitation, observed in adults, is the result of inhibitory cross-modal connections becoming excitatory during the development. Model results are consistent with a stronger cross-modal inhibition in ASD children, compared to normotypical (NT) ones, suggesting that the transition toward a cooperative interaction between sensory modalities takes longer to occur. Interestingly, the model also predicts the difference between unisensory switch trials (in which sensory modality switches) and unisensory repeat trials (in which sensory modality repeats). This is due to an inhibitory mechanism, characterized by a slow dynamics, driven by the preceding stimulus and inhibiting the processing of the incoming one, when of the opposite sensory modality. These findings link the cognitive framework delineated by the empirical results to a plausible neural implementation.

A deep learning model for controlling the galvanizing process in a production line

In the industry of steelmaking, the process of galvanizing is a treatment which is applied to protect the steel from corrosion. The air knife effect (AKE) occurs when nozzles emit a steam of air on the surfaces of a steel strip to remove excess zinc from it. In our work we formalized the problem to control the AKE and we implemented, with the R&D dept.of MarcegagliaSPA, a DL model able to drive the AKE. We call it controller. It takes as input the tuple : a tuple of the physical conditions of the process line (t,h,s) with the target value of the zinc coating (c); and generates the expected tuple of (pres and dist) to drive the mechanical nozzles towards the (c). According to the requirements we designed the structure of the network. We collected and explored the data set of the historical data of the smart factory. Finally, we designed the loss function as sum of three components: the minimization between the coating addressed by the network and the target value we want to reach; and two weighted minimization components for both pressure and distance. In our solution we construct a second module, named coating net, to predict the coating of zinc resulting from the AKE when the conditions are applied to the prod. line. Its structure is made by a linear and a deep nonlinear “residual” component learned by empirical observations. The predictions made by the coating nets are used as ground truth in the loss function of the controller. By tuning the weights of the different components of the loss function, it is possible to train models with slightly different optimization purposes. In the tests we compared the regularization of different strategies with the standard one in condition of optimal estimation for both; the overall accuracy is ± 3 g/m^2 dal target for all of them. Lastly, we analyze how the controller modeled the current solutions with the new logic: the sub-optimal values of pres and dist can be optimize of 50% and 20%.