Falhas de mercado e redes em políticas públicas: desafios e possibilidades ao Sistema Único de Saúde

Os princípios e as diretrizes do Sistema Único de Saúde (SUS) impõem uma estrutura de assistência baseada em redes de políticas públicas que, combinada ao modelo de financiamento adotado, conduz a falhas de mercado. Isso impõe barreiras à gestão do sistema público de saúde e à concretização dos objetivos do SUS. As características institucionais e a heterogeneidade dos atores, aliadas à existência de diferentes redes de atenção à saúde, geram complexidade analítica no estudo da dinâmica global da rede do SUS. Há limitações ao emprego de métodos quantitativos baseados em análise estática com dados retrospectivos do sistema público de saúde. Assim, propõe-se a abordagem do SUS como sistema complexo, a partir da utilização de metodologia quantitativa inovadora baseada em simulação computacional. O presente artigo buscou analisar desafios e potencialidades na utilização de modelagem com autômatos celulares combinada com modelagem baseada em agentes para simulação da evolução da rede de serviços do SUS. Tal abordagem deve permitir melhor compreensão da organização, heterogeneidade e dinâmica estrutural da rede de serviços do SUS e possibilitar minimização dos efeitos das falhas de mercado no sistema de saúde brasileiro.

Added sugars: consumption and associated factors among adults and the elderly. São Paulo, Brazil

OBJECTIVE: To investigate added sugar intake, main dietary sources and factors associated with excessive intake of added sugar. METHODS: A population-based household survey was carried out in São Paulo, the largest city in Brazil. Cluster sampling was performed and the study sample comprised 689 adults and 622 elderly individuals. Dietary intake was estimated based on a 24-hour food recall. Usual nutrient intake was estimated by correcting for the within-person variance of intake using the Iowa State University (ISU) method. Linear regression analysis was conducted to identify factors associated with added sugar intake. RESULTS: Average of energy intake (EI) from added sugars was 9.1% (95% CI: 8.9%; 9.4%) among adults and 8.4% (95% CI: 8.2%; 8.7%) among the elderly (p < 0.05). Average added sugar intake (% EI) was higher among women than among men (p < 0.05). Soft drink was the main source of added sugar among adults, while table sugar was the main source of added sugar among the elderly. Added sugar intake increased with age among adults. Moreover, higher socioeconomic level was associated with added sugar intake in the same group. CONCLUSIONS: Added sugar intake is higher among younger adults of higher socioeconomic level. Soft drink and table sugar accounted for more than 50% of the sugar consumed.

Dahlberg formula: a novel approach for its evaluation

INTRODUCTION: The accurate evaluation of error of measurement (EM) is extremely important as in growth studies as in clinical research, since there are usually quantitatively small changes. In any study it is important to evaluate the EM to validate the results and, consequently, the conclusions. Because of its extreme simplicity, the Dahlberg formula is largely used worldwide, mainly in cephalometric studies. OBJECTIVES: (I) To elucidate the formula proposed by Dahlberg in 1940, evaluating it by comparison with linear regression analysis; (II) To propose a simple methodology to analyze the results, which provides statistical elements to assist researchers in obtaining a consistent evaluation of the EM. METHODS: We applied linear regression analysis, hypothesis tests on its parameters and a formula involving the standard deviation of error of measurement and the measured values. RESULTS AND CONCLUSION: we introduced an error coefficient, which is a proportion related to the scale of observed values. This provides new parameters to facilitate the evaluation of the impact of random errors in the research final results.

One-repetition maximum test and isokinetic leg extension and flexion: correlations and predicted values

The most typical maximum tests for measuring leg muscle performance are the one-repetition maximum leg press test (1RMleg) and the isokinetic knee extension/flexion (IKEF) test. Nevertheless, their inter-correlations have not been well documented, mainly the predicted values of these evaluations. This correlational and regression analysis study involved 30 healthy young males aged 18-24y, who have performed both tests. Pearson's product moment correlation between 1RMleg and IKEF varied from 0.20 to 0.69 and the more exact predicted test was to 1RMleg (R2 = 0.71). The study showed correlations between 1RMleg and IKEF although these tests are different (isotonic vs. isokinetic) and provided further support for cross determination of 1RMleg and IKEF by linear and multiple linear regression analysis.

Definition, realization and evaluation of a software reference architecture for use in space applications

A recent initiative of the European Space Agency (ESA) aims at the definition and adoption of a software reference architecture for use in on-board software of future space missions. Our PhD project placed in the context of that effort. At the outset of our work we gathered all the industrial needs relevant to ESA and all the main European space stakeholders and we were able to consolidate a set of technical high-level requirements for the fulfillment of them. The conclusion we reached from that phase confirmed that the adoption of a software reference architecture was indeed the best solution for the fulfillment of the high-level requirements. The software reference architecture we set on building rests on four constituents: (i) a component model, to design the software as a composition of individually verifiable and reusable software units; (ii) a computational model, to ensure that the architectural description of the software is statically analyzable; (iii) a programming model, to ensure that the implementation of the design entities conforms with the semantics, the assumptions and the constraints of the computational model; (iv) a conforming execution platform, to actively preserve at run time the properties asserted by static analysis. The nature, feasibility and fitness of constituents (ii), (iii) and (iv), were already proved by the author in an international project that preceded the commencement of the PhD work. The core of the PhD project was therefore centered on the design and prototype implementation of constituent (i), a component model. Our proposed component model is centered on: (i) rigorous separation of concerns, achieved with the support for design views and by careful allocation of concerns to the dedicated software entities; (ii) the support for specification and model-based analysis of extra-functional properties; (iii) the inclusion space-specific concerns.

Die Rolle der Globalstrahlung im Klimasystem Südwestdeutschlands

Die Untersuchungen umfassen die Periode 1981 – 2000 und basieren hauptsächlich auf Daten des Deutschen Wetterdienstes (DWD). Relativwerte der Globalstrahlung beziehen sich auf die Rayleigh-Atmosphäre. Das Regressionsmodell nach Angström ermöglicht die Erweiterung des Meßnetzes. In linearer und nichtlinearer Regression und Korrelation ist die Globalstrahlung entweder abhängige (Sonnenscheindauer, Bewölkung) oder unabhängige Variable (Lufttemperatur, Bodentemperatur). Ihre Intensität in Abhängigkeit von Großwetterlagen, Großwettertypen und Luftmassen wird diskutiert. Diesbezüglich werden mit der Linearen Diskriminanzanalyse ähnliche Großwetterlagen und Stationen in signifikant unterschiedenen Gruppen zusammengefaßt, getrennt nach Sommer- und Winterhalbjahr. Abhängig von der Zeit betrachtet, enthalten Globalstrahlung, direkte und diffuse Sonnenstrahlung, Lufttemperatur, Bewölkung und Niederschlag signifikante zyklische Variationen, die gegebenenfalls klimatologisch relevant sind. Weiteren Aufschluß ergeben deshalb die Zeitreihenanalysen. Autokorrelation-Spektralanalysen (ASA) der genannten Variablen werden in integrierten Spektren dargestellt. Hinweise auf die zeitliche Konstanz signifikanter Varianzmaxima enthalten die Spektren der dynamischen (gleitenden) ASA.

Stato della salute orale in pazienti istituzionalizzati affetti da patologie neuropsichiatriche

Le patologie di pertinenza odontostomatologica in pazienti adulti istituzionalizzati affetti da disabilità neuropsichiatrica presentano un’alta prevalenza; scopo del presente lavoro è stato la valutazione della prevalenza di carie (DMFT, SIC) e lo stato di igiene orale (OHI-S) in un gruppo di 103 (72 maschi, 31 femmine, età media 51) pazienti degli Istituti del P.O. Corberi e della RSD Beato Papa Giovanni XIII di Limbiate (MB). E’ stato valutata la collaborazione alla visita con la scala di Frankl, si è definito lo stato funzionale del paziente, in base alla Classificazione Internazionale del Funzionamento, della Disabilità e della Salute (ICF) e si è valutata con un questionario la motivazione degli operatori sanitari a stili di salute orale. Lo studio ha evidenziato un DMFT medio pari a 16,14 e SIC pari a 23,8, valori non correlabili con l'età del soggetto. L’OHI-S medio è pari a 3,46, dato che si presenza correlato con il tempo intercorso dall’ultima visita odontoiatrica. Dal confronto con un gruppo di soggetti sani della stessa età risultano significativamente più elevati i valori della componente (M) e (F) del DMFT e di tutte le componenti dell’OHI-S. Il campione è stato diviso in due gruppi a seconda della loro pregressa collaborazione al trattamento odontoiatrico e sono stati confrontati i dati ricavati dalla checklist ICF. Il gruppo collaborante ha mostrato livelli di funzionalità superiori per quanto riguarda le capacità di osservare, parlare e l’assistenza personale. Dalle risposte del personale socio-sanitario ermerge scarsa informazione sulle tecniche di igiene orale domiciliare quotidiana del paziente assistito. I risultati di questo studio confermano l'alta prevalenza di carie e scarsa igiene orale in soggetti istituzionalizzati con disabilità neuropsichiatrica. L'ICF si è dimostrata una utile guida per la valutazione dell�approccio comportamentale più idoneo in fase di trattamento. Infine, si evidenzia l’importanza di una formazione continua degli operatori socio-sanitari.

Valutazione della qualità ed autenticità di prodotti oleari e lattiero caseari mediante metodi fisici di analisi accoppiati a tecniche statistiche multivariate

Questa tesi descrive alcuni studi di messa a punto di metodi di analisi fisici accoppiati con tecniche statistiche multivariate per valutare la qualità e l’autenticità di oli vegetali e prodotti caseari. L’applicazione di strumenti fisici permette di abbattere i costi ed i tempi necessari per le analisi classiche ed allo stesso tempo può fornire un insieme diverso di informazioni che possono riguardare tanto la qualità come l’autenticità di prodotti. Per il buon funzionamento di tali metodi è necessaria la costruzione di modelli statistici robusti che utilizzino set di dati correttamente raccolti e rappresentativi del campo di applicazione. In questo lavoro di tesi sono stati analizzati oli vegetali e alcune tipologie di formaggi (in particolare pecorini per due lavori di ricerca e Parmigiano-Reggiano per un altro). Sono stati utilizzati diversi strumenti di analisi (metodi fisici), in particolare la spettroscopia, l’analisi termica differenziale, il naso elettronico, oltre a metodiche separative tradizionali. I dati ottenuti dalle analisi sono stati trattati mediante diverse tecniche statistiche, soprattutto: minimi quadrati parziali; regressione lineare multipla ed analisi discriminante lineare.

Development of methodologies for fish freshness assessment using metabonomics applications.

This study focuses on the use of metabonomics applications in measuring fish freshness in various biological species and in evaluating how they are stored. This metabonomic approach is innovative and is based upon molecular profiling through nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR). On one hand, the aim is to ascertain if a type of fish has maintained, within certain limits, its sensory and nutritional characteristics after being caught; and on the second, the research observes the alterations in the product’s composition. The spectroscopic data obtained through experimental nuclear magnetic resonance, 1H-NMR, of the molecular profiles of the fish extracts are compared with those obtained on the same samples through analytical and conventional methods now in practice. These second methods are used to obtain chemical indices of freshness through biochemical and microbial degradation of the proteic nitrogen compounds and not (trimethylamine, N-(CH3)3, nucleotides, amino acids, etc.). At a later time, a principal components analysis (PCA) and a linear discriminant analysis (PLS-DA) are performed through a metabonomic approach to condense the temporal evolution of freshness into a single parameter. In particular, the first principal component (PC1) under both storage conditions (4 °C and 0 °C) represents the component together with the molecular composition of the samples (through 1H-NMR spectrum) evolving during storage with a very high variance. The results of this study give scientific evidence supporting the objective elements evaluating the freshness of fish products showing those which can be labeled “fresh fish.”

Fatigue Crack Propagation in Pressurized metallic Fuselages

On the basis of well-known literature, an analytical tool named LEAF (Linear Elastic Analysis of Fracture) was developed to predict the Damage Tolerance (DT) proprieties of aeronautical stiffened panels. The tool is based on the linear elastic fracture mechanics and the displacement compatibility method. By means of LEAF, an extensive parametric analysis of stiffened panels, representative of typical aeronautical constructions, was performed to provide meaningful design guidelines. The effects of riveted, integral and adhesively bonded stringers on the fatigue crack propagation performances of stiffened panels were investigated, as well as the crack retarder contribution using metallic straps (named doublers) bonded in the middle of the stringers bays. The effect of both perfectly bonded and partially debonded doublers was investigated as well. Adhesively bonded stiffeners showed the best DT properties in comparison with riveted and integral ones. A great reduction of the skin crack growth propagation rate can be achieved with the adoption of additional doublers bonded between the stringers.

Type Systems for Distributed Programs: Components and Sessions

Modern software systems, in particular distributed ones, are everywhere around us and are at the basis of our everyday activities. Hence, guaranteeing their cor- rectness, consistency and safety is of paramount importance. Their complexity makes the verification of such properties a very challenging task. It is natural to expect that these systems are reliable and above all usable. i) In order to be reliable, compositional models of software systems need to account for consistent dynamic reconfiguration, i.e., changing at runtime the communication patterns of a program. ii) In order to be useful, compositional models of software systems need to account for interaction, which can be seen as communication patterns among components which collaborate together to achieve a common task. The aim of the Ph.D. was to develop powerful techniques based on formal methods for the verification of correctness, consistency and safety properties related to dynamic reconfiguration and communication in complex distributed systems. In particular, static analysis techniques based on types and type systems appeared to be an adequate methodology, considering their success in guaranteeing not only basic safety properties, but also more sophisticated ones like, deadlock or livelock freedom in a concurrent setting. The main contributions of this dissertation are twofold. i) On the components side: we design types and a type system for a concurrent object-oriented calculus to statically ensure consistency of dynamic reconfigurations related to modifications of communication patterns in a program during execution time. ii) On the communication side: we study advanced safety properties related to communication in complex distributed systems like deadlock-freedom, livelock- freedom and progress. Most importantly, we exploit an encoding of types and terms of a typical distributed language, session π-calculus, into the standard typed π- calculus, in order to understand their expressive power.

Numerical simulation of some viscoelastic fluids

Numerical simulation of the Oldroyd-B type viscoelastic fluids is a very challenging problem. rnThe well-known High Weissenberg Number Problem" has haunted the mathematicians, computer scientists, and rnengineers for more than 40 years. rnWhen the Weissenberg number, which represents the ratio of elasticity to viscosity, rnexceeds some limits, simulations done by standard methods break down exponentially fast in time. rnHowever, some approaches, such as the logarithm transformation technique can significantly improve rnthe limits of the Weissenberg number until which the simulations stay stable. rnrnWe should point out that the global existence of weak solutions for the Oldroyd-B model is still open. rnLet us note that in the evolution equation of the elastic stress tensor the terms describing diffusive rneffects are typically neglected in the modelling due to their smallness. However, when keeping rnthese diffusive terms in the constitutive law the global existence of weak solutions in two-space dimension rncan been shown. rnrnThis main part of the thesis is devoted to the stability study of the Oldroyd-B viscoelastic model. rnFirstly, we show that the free energy of the diffusive Oldroyd-B model as well as its rnlogarithm transformation are dissipative in time. rnFurther, we have developed free energy dissipative schemes based on the characteristic finite element and finite difference framework. rnIn addition, the global linear stability analysis of the diffusive Oldroyd-B model has also be discussed. rnThe next part of the thesis deals with the error estimates of the combined finite element rnand finite volume discretization of a special Oldroyd-B model which covers the limiting rncase of Weissenberg number going to infinity. Theoretical results are confirmed by a series of numerical rnexperiments, which are presented in the thesis, too.

Climate change in Libya and desertification of Jifara Plain

The study was arranged to manifest its objectives through preceding it with an intro-duction. Particular attention was paid in the second part to detect the physical settings of the study area, together with an attempt to show the climatic characteristics in Libya. In the third part, observed temporal and spatial climate change in Libya was investigated through the trends of temperature, precipitation, relative humidity and cloud amount over the peri-ods (1946-2000), (1946-1975), and (1976-2000), comparing the results with the global scales. The forth part detected the natural and human causes of climate change concentrat-ing on the greenhouse effect. The potential impacts of climate change on Libya were ex-amined in the fifth chapter. As a case study, desertification of Jifara Plain was studied in the sixth part. In the seventh chapter, projections and mitigations of climate change and desertification were discussed. Ultimately, the main results and recommendations of the study were summarized. In order to carry through the objectives outlined above, the following methods and approaches were used: a simple linear regression analysis was computed to detect the trends of climatic parameters over time; a trend test based on a trend-to-noise-ratio was applied for detecting linear or non-linear trends; the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test for trend was used to reveal the behavior of the trends and their significance; PCA was applied to construct the all-Libya climatic parameters trends; aridity index after Walter-Lieth was shown for computing humid respectively arid months in Libya; correlation coefficient, (after Pearson) for detecting the teleconnection between sun spot numbers, NAOI, SOI, GHGs, and global warming, climate changes in Libya; aridity index, after De Martonne, to elaborate the trends of aridity in Jifara Plain; Geographical Information System and Re-mote Sensing techniques were applied to clarify the illustrations and to monitor desertifi-cation of Jifara Plain using the available satellite images MSS, TM, ETM+ and Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM). The results are explained by 88 tables, 96 figures and 10 photos. Temporal and spatial temperature changes in Libya indicated remarkably different an-nual and seasonal trends over the long observation period 1946-2000 and the short obser-vation periods 1946-1975 and 1976-2000. Trends of mean annual temperature were posi-tive at all study stations except at one from 1946-2000, negative trends prevailed at most stations from 1946-1975, while strongly positive trends were computed at all study stations from 1976-2000 corresponding with the global warming trend. Positive trends of mean minimum temperatures were observed at all reference stations from 1946-2000 and 1976-2000, while negative trends prevailed at most stations over the period 1946-1975. For mean maximum temperature, positive trends were shown from 1946-2000 and from 1976-2000 at most stations, while most trends were negative from 1946-1975. Minimum tem-peratures increased at nearly more than twice the rate of maximum temperatures at most stations. In respect of seasonal temperature, warming mostly occurred in summer and au-tumn in contrast to the global observations identifying warming mostly in winter and spring in both study periods. Precipitation across Libya is characterized by scanty and sporadically totals, as well as high intensities and very high spatial and temporal variabilities. From 1946-2000, large inter-annual and intra-annual variabilities were observed. Positive trends of annual precipi-tation totals have been observed from 1946-2000, negative trends from 1976-2000 at most stations. Variabilities of seasonal precipitation over Libya are more strikingly experienced from 1976-2000 than from 1951-1975 indicating a growing magnitude of climate change in more recent times. Negative trends of mean annual relative humidity were computed at eight stations, while positive trends prevailed at seven stations from 1946-2000. For the short observation period 1976-2000, positive trends were computed at most stations. Annual cloud amount totals decreased at most study stations in Libya over both long and short periods. Re-markably large spatial variations of climate changes were observed from north to south over Libya. Causes of climate change were discussed showing high correlation between tempera-ture increasing over Libya and CO2 emissions; weakly positive correlation between pre-cipitation and North Atlantic Oscillation index; negative correlation between temperature and sunspot numbers; negative correlation between precipitation over Libya and Southern Oscillation Index. The years 1992 and 1993 were shown as the coldest in the 1990s result-ing from the eruption of Mount Pinatubo, 1991. Libya is affected by climate change in many ways, in particular, crop production and food security, water resources, human health, population settlement and biodiversity. But the effects of climate change depend on its magnitude and the rate with which it occurs. Jifara Plain, located in northwestern Libya, has been seriously exposed to desertifica-tion as a result of climate change, landforms, overgrazing, over-cultivation and population growth. Soils have been degraded, vegetation cover disappeared and the groundwater wells were getting dry in many parts. The effect of desertification on Jifara Plain appears through reducing soil fertility and crop productivity, leading to long-term declines in agri-cultural yields, livestock yields, plant standing biomass, and plant biodiversity. Desertifi-cation has also significant implications on livestock industry and the national economy. Desertification accelerates migration from rural and nomadic areas to urban areas as the land cannot support the original inhabitants. In the absence of major shifts in policy, economic growth, energy prices, and con-sumer trends, climate change in Libya and desertification of Jifara Plain are expected to continue in the future. Libya cooperated with United Nations and other international organizations. It has signed and ratified a number of international and regional agreements which effectively established a policy framework for actions to mitigate climate change and combat deserti-fication. Libya has implemented several laws and legislative acts, with a number of ancil-lary and supplementary rules to regulate. Despite the current efforts and ongoing projects being undertaken in Libya in the field of climate change and desertification, urgent actions and projects are needed to mitigate climate change and combat desertification in the near future.

Energy harvesting from piezoelectric devices embedded in a 3D printed wing

This thesis work has been carried out at Clarkson University in Potsdam NY, USA and involved the design of a low elongation wing, consisting of parts made by polylactide (PLA) using the fused deposition model (FDM) technology of Rapid Prototyping, then assembled together in a thin aluminum spar. The aim of the research is to evaluate the feasibility of collecting electrical energy by converting mechanical energy from the vibration of the wing flutter. With this aim piezoelectric stripes were glued in the inner part of the wing, as well as on the aluminum spar, as monomorphic configuration. During the phases of the project, particular attention was given to the geometry and the materials used, in order to trigger the flutter for low flow velocity. The CAD software SolidWorks® was used for the design of the wing and then the drawings were sent to the Clarkson machine shop in order to to produce the parts required by the wing assembly. FEM simulations were performed, using software MSC NASTRAN/PATRAN®, to evaluate the stiffness of the whole wing as well as the natural vibration modes of the structure. These data, in a first approximation, were used to predict the flutter speed. Finally, experimental tests in the Clarkson wind tunnel facility were carried out in order to validate the results obtained from FEM analysis. The power collected by the piezoelectrics under flutter condition was addressed by tuning the resistors downstream the electronic circuit of the piezoelectrics.

A longitudinal three-center study of dental arch relationship in patients with bilateral cleft lip and palate

OBJECTIVE: To compare and evaluate longitudinally the dental arch relationships from 4.5 to 13.5 years of age with the Bauru-BCLP Yardstick in a large sample of patients with bilateral cleft lip and palate (BCLP). DESIGN: Retrospective longitudinal intercenter outcome study. PATIENTS: Dental casts of 204 consecutive patients with complete BCLP were evaluated at 6, 9, and 12 years of age. All models were identified only by random identification numbers. SETTING: Three cleft palate centers with different treatment protocols. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Dental arch relationships were categorized with the Bauru-BCLP yardstick. Increments for each interval (from 6 to 9 years, 6 to 12 years, and 9 to 12 years) were analyzed by logistic and linear regression models. RESULTS: There were no significant differences in outcome measures between the centers at age 12 or at age 9. At age 6, center B showed significantly better results (p=.027), but this difference diminished as the yardstick score for this group increased over time (linear regression analysis), the difference with the reference category (center C, boys) for the intervals 6 to 12 and 9 to 12 years being 10.4% (p=.041) and 12.9% (p=.009), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Despite different treatment protocols, dental arch relationships in the three centers were comparable in final scores at age 9 and 12 years. Delaying hard palate closure and employing infant orthopedics did not appear to be advantageous in the long run. Premaxillary osteotomy employed in center B appeared to be associated with less favorable development of the dental arch relationship between 9 and 12 years.