Gaussian anamorphosis in the analysis step of the EnKF: a joint state-variable/observation approach

The analysis step of the (ensemble) Kalman filter is optimal when (1) the distribution of the background is Gaussian, (2) state variables and observations are related via a linear operator, and (3) the observational error is of additive nature and has Gaussian distribution. When these conditions are largely violated, a pre-processing step known as Gaussian anamorphosis (GA) can be applied. The objective of this procedure is to obtain state variables and observations that better fulfil the Gaussianity conditions in some sense. In this work we analyse GA from a joint perspective, paying attention to the effects of transformations in the joint state variable/observation space. First, we study transformations for state variables and observations that are independent from each other. Then, we introduce a targeted joint transformation with the objective to obtain joint Gaussianity in the transformed space. We focus primarily in the univariate case, and briefly comment on the multivariate one. A key point of this paper is that, when (1)-(3) are violated, using the analysis step of the EnKF will not recover the exact posterior density in spite of any transformations one may perform. These transformations, however, provide approximations of different quality to the Bayesian solution of the problem. Using an example in which the Bayesian posterior can be analytically computed, we assess the quality of the analysis distributions generated after applying the EnKF analysis step in conjunction with different GA options. The value of the targeted joint transformation is particularly clear for the case when the prior is Gaussian, the marginal density for the observations is close to Gaussian, and the likelihood is a Gaussian mixture.

The potential of flood forecasting using a variable-resolution global Digital Terrain Model and flood extents from Synthetic Aperture Radar images

A basic data requirement of a river flood inundation model is a Digital Terrain Model (DTM) of the reach being studied. The scale at which modeling is required determines the accuracy required of the DTM. For modeling floods in urban areas, a high resolution DTM such as that produced by airborne LiDAR (Light Detection And Ranging) is most useful, and large parts of many developed countries have now been mapped using LiDAR. In remoter areas, it is possible to model flooding on a larger scale using a lower resolution DTM, and in the near future the DTM of choice is likely to be that derived from the TanDEM-X Digital Elevation Model (DEM). A variable-resolution global DTM obtained by combining existing high and low resolution data sets would be useful for modeling flood water dynamics globally, at high resolution wherever possible and at lower resolution over larger rivers in remote areas. A further important data resource used in flood modeling is the flood extent, commonly derived from Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) images. Flood extents become more useful if they are intersected with the DTM, when water level observations (WLOs) at the flood boundary can be estimated at various points along the river reach. To illustrate the utility of such a global DTM, two examples of recent research involving WLOs at opposite ends of the spatial scale are discussed. The first requires high resolution spatial data, and involves the assimilation of WLOs from a real sequence of high resolution SAR images into a flood model to update the model state with observations over time, and to estimate river discharge and model parameters, including river bathymetry and friction. The results indicate the feasibility of such an Earth Observation-based flood forecasting system. The second example is at a larger scale, and uses SAR-derived WLOs to improve the lower-resolution TanDEM-X DEM in the area covered by the flood extents. The resulting reduction in random height error is significant.

Bound Variable, Split Antecedent and Ellipsis Interpretations in L2 Portuguese: Implications for L2 Acquisition Theories.

Recently, in light of minimalist assumptions, some partial UG accessibility accounts to adult second language acquisition have made a distinction between the post-critical period ability to acquire new features based on their LF-interpretability (i.e. interpretable vs. uninterpretable features) (HAWKINS, 2005; HAWKINS; HATTORI, 2006; TSIMPLI; MASTROPAVLOU, 2007; TSIMPLI; DIMITRAKOPOULOU, 2007). The Interpretability Hypothesis (TSIMPLI; MASTROPAVLOU, 2007; TSIMPLI; DIMITRAKOPOULOU, 2007) claims that only uninterpretable features suffer a post-critical period failure and, therefore, cannot be acquired. Conversely, Full Access approaches claim that L2 learners have full access to UG’s entire inventory of features, and that L1/L2 differences obtain outside the narrow syntax. The phenomenon studied herein, adult acquisition of the Overt Pronoun Constraint (OPC) (MONTALBETTI, 1984) and inflected infinitives in nonnative Portuguese, challenges the Interpretability hypothesis insofar as it makes the wrong predictions for what is observed. The present data demonstrate that advanced learners of L2 Portuguese acquire the OPC and the syntax and semantics of inflected infinitives with native-like accuracy. Since inflected infinitives require the acquisition of new uninterpretable φ-features, the present data provide evidence in contra Tsimpli and colleagues’ Interpretability Hypothesis.

The impact of variable sea ice roughness on changes in Arctic Ocean surface stress: a model study

The Arctic sea ice cover is thinning and retreating, causing changes in surface roughness that in turn modify the momentum flux from the atmosphere through the ice into the ocean. New model simulations comprising variable sea ice drag coefficients for both the air and water interface demonstrate that the heterogeneity in sea ice surface roughness significantly impacts the spatial distribution and trends of ocean surface stress during the last decades. Simulations with constant sea ice drag coefficients as used in most climate models show an increase in annual mean ocean surface stress (0.003 N/m2 per decade, 4.6%) due to the reduction of ice thickness leading to a weakening of the ice and accelerated ice drift. In contrast, with variable drag coefficients our simulations show annual mean ocean surface stress is declining at a rate of -0.002 N/m2 per decade (3.1%) over the period 1980-2013 because of a significant reduction in surface roughness associated with an increasingly thinner and younger sea ice cover. The effectiveness of sea ice in transferring momentum does not only depend on its resistive strength against the wind forcing but is also set by its top and bottom surface roughness varying with ice types and ice conditions. This reveals the need to account for sea ice surface roughness variations in climate simulations in order to correctly represent the implications of sea ice loss under global warming.

Sensitivity of OMI SO2 measurements to variable eruptive behaviour at Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat

Since 2004, the satellite-borne Ozone Mapping Instrument (OMI) has observed sulphur dioxide (SO2) plumes during both quiescence and effusive eruptive activity at Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat. On average, OMI detected a SO2 plume 4-6 times more frequently during effusive periods than during quiescence in the 2008-2010 period. The increased ability of OMI to detect SO2 during eruptive periods is mainly due to an increase in plume altitude rather than a higher SO2 emission rate. Three styles of eruptive activity cause thermal lofting of gases (Vulcanian explosions; pyroclastic flows; a hot lava dome) and the resultant plume altitudes are estimated from observations and models. Most lofting plumes from Soufrière Hills are derived from hot domes and pyroclastic flows. Although Vulcanian explosions produced the largest plumes, some produced only negligible SO2 signals detected by OMI. OMI is most valuable for monitoring purposes at this volcano during periods of lava dome growth and during explosive activity.

Seasonality of westerly moisture transport in the East Asian summer monsoon and its implications for interpreting precipitation δ18O

East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) rainfall impacts the world's most populous regions. Accurate EASM rainfall prediction necessitates robust paleoclimate reconstructions from proxy data and quantitative linkage to modern climatic conditions. Many precisely dated oxygen isotope records from Chinese stalagmites have been interpreted as directly reflecting past EASM rainfall amount variability, but recent research suggests that such records instead integrate multiple hydroclimatic processes. Using a Lagrangian precipitation moisture source diagnostic, we demonstrate that EASM rainfall is primarily derived from the Indian Ocean. Conversely, Pacific Ocean moisture export peaks during winter, and the moisture uptake area does not differ significantly between summer and winter and is thus a minor contributor to monsoonal precipitation. Our results are substantiated by an accurate reproduction of summer and winter spatial rainfall distributions across China. We also correlate modern EASM rainfall oxygen isotope ratios with instrumental rainfall amount and our moisture source data. This analysis reveals that the strength of the source effect is geographically variable, and differences in atmospheric moisture transport may significantly impact the isotopic signature of EASM rainfall at the Hulu, Dongge, and Wanxiang Cave sites. These results improve our ability to isolate the rainfall amount signal in paleomonsoon reconstructions and indicate that precipitation across central and eastern China will directly respond to variability in Indian Ocean moisture supply.

Variable phenotypic manifestations of a K44N mutation in the TGIF gene

The etiologies and clinical spectra of HPE are extremely heterogeneous. Here, we report a Brazilian boy with lobar holoprosencephaly who was ascertained in a sample of 60 patients with HPE and HPE-like phenotypes and screened for molecular analysis of the major HPE causative genes: SHH, PTCH, SIX3, GLI2, and TGIF This boy presented a p.K44N (c.132G > T) mutation in exon 2 of the TGIF gene which was inherited from his phenotypically normal mother. This mutation leads to lysine to arginine amino acid change and is predicted to be a damaging mutation. Clinical aspects involving variable phenotypical manifestations in different mutations of TGIF are discussed. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A two-armed pattern in flickering maps of the nova-like variable UU aquarii

We report the analysis of a uniform sample of 31 light curves of the nova-like variable UU Aqr with eclipse-mapping techniques. The data were combined to derive eclipse maps of the average steady-light component, the long-term brightness changes, and the low- and high-frequency flickering components. The long-term variability responsible for the ""low-brightness`` and ""high-brightness`` states is explained in terms of the response of a viscous disk to changes of 20%-50% in the mass transfer rate from the donor star. Low- and high-frequency flickering maps are dominated by emission from two asymmetric arcs reminiscent of those seen in the outbursting dwarf nova IP Peg, and they are similarly interpreted as manifestations of a tidally induced spiral shock wave in the outer regions of a large accretion disk. The asymmetric arcs are also seen in the map of the steady light aside from the broad brightness distribution of a roughly steady-state disk. The arcs account for 25% of the steady-light flux and are a long-lasting feature in the accretion disk of UU Aqr. We infer an opening angle of 10 degrees +/- 3 degrees for the spiral arcs. The results suggest that the flickering in UU Aqr is caused by turbulence generated after the collision of disk gas with the density-enhanced spiral wave in the accretion disk.

ON THE NATURE OF THE PROTOTYPE LUMINOUS BLUE VARIABLE AG CARINAE. II. WITNESSING A MASSIVE STAR EVOLVING CLOSE TO THE EDDINGTON AND BISTABILITY LIMITS

We show that the significantly different effective temperatures (T(eff)) achieved by the luminous blue variable AG Carinae during the consecutive visual minima of 1985-1990 (T(eff) similar or equal to 22,800 K) and 2000-2001 (T(eff) similar or equal to 17,000 K) place the star on different sides of the bistability limit, which occurs in line-driven stellar winds around T(eff) similar to 21,000 K. Decisive evidence is provided by huge changes in the optical depth of the Lyman continuum in the inner wind as T(eff) changes during the S Dor cycle. These changes cause different Fe ionization structures in the inner wind. The bistability mechanism is also related to the different wind parameters during visual minima: the wind terminal velocity was 2-3 times higher and the mass-loss rate roughly two times smaller in 1985-1990 than in 2000-2003. We obtain a projected rotational velocity of 220 +/- 50 km s(-1) during 1985-1990 which, combined with the high luminosity (L(star) = 1.5 x 10(6) L(circle dot)), puts AG Car extremely close to the Eddington limit modified by rotation (Omega Gamma limit): for an inclination angle of 90 degrees, Gamma(Omega) greater than or similar to 1.0 for M(circle dot) less than or similar to 60. Based on evolutionary models and mass budget, we obtain an initial mass of similar to 100 M(circle dot) and a current mass of similar to 60-70 M(circle dot) for AG Car. Therefore, AG Car is close to, if not at, the Omega Gamma limit during visual minimum. Assuming M = 70 M(circle dot), we find that Gamma(Omega) decreases from 0.93 to 0.72 as AG Car expands toward visual maximum, suggesting that the star is not above the Eddington limit during maximum phases.

Comparing performance of instrumental drift correction by linear and quadratic adjusting in inductive electromagnetic data

Electromagnetic induction (EMI) method results are shown for vertical magnetic dipole (VMD) configuration by using the EM38 equipment. Performance in the location of metallic pipes and electrical cables is compared as a function of instrumental drift correction by linear and quadratic adjusting under controlled conditions. Metallic pipes and electrical cables are buried at the IAG/USP shallow geophysical test site in Sao Paulo City. Brazil. Results show that apparent electrical conductivity and magnetic susceptibility data were affected by ambient temperature variation. In order to obtain better contrast between background and metallic targets it was necessary to correct the drift. This correction was accomplished by using linear and quadratic relation between conductivity/susceptibility and temperature intending comparative studies. The correction of temperature drift by using a quadratic relation was effective, showing that all metallic targets were located as well deeper targets were also improved. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Autoimmunity in common variable immunodeficiency

immunodeficiency (CVID), the most common symptomatic primary immunodeficiency in adulthood. Different authors report high prevalences of autoimmune diseases in CVID, and several mechanisms have been proposed to explain this apparent paradox. Genetic predisposition, under current surveillance, innate and adaptive immunity deficiencies leading to persistent/recurrent infections, variable degrees of immune dysregulation, and possible failure in central and peripheral mechanisms of tolerance induction or maintenance may all contribute to increased autoimmunity. Conclusions Data on the clinical/immunological profile of affected patients and treatment are available mostly concerning autoimmune cytopenias, the most common autoimmune diseases in CVID. Treatment is based on conventional alternatives, in association with short experience with new agents, including rituximab and infliximab. Benefits of early immunoglobulin substitutive treatment and hypothetical premature predictors of autoimmunity are discussed as potential improvements to CVID patients` follow-up.

Slower rescue of ER homeostasis by the unfolded protein response pathway associated with common variable immunodeficiency

Common variable immunodeficiency (CVID) is a primary immunodeficiency characterized by hypogammaglobulinemia and recurrent infections. Herein we addressed the role of unfolded protein response (UPR) in the pathogenesis of the disease. Augmented unspliced X-box binding protein 1 (XBP-1) mRNA concurrent with co-localization of IgM and BiP/GRP78 were found in one CVID patient. At confocal microscopy analysis this patient`s cells were enlarged and failed to present the typical surface distribution of IgM, which accumulated within an abnormally expanded endoplasmic reticulum. Sequencing did not reveal any mutation on XBP-1, neither on IRE-1 alpha that could potentially prevent the splicing to occur. Analysis of spliced XBP-1, IRE-1 alpha and BiP messages after LPS or Brefeldin A treatment showed that, unlike healthy controls that respond to these endoplasmic reticulum (ER) stressors by presenting waves of transcription of these three genes, this patient`s cells presented lower rates of transcription, not reaching the same level of response of healthy subjects even after 48 h of ER stress. Treatment with DMSO rescued IgM and IgG secretion as well as the expression of spliced XBP-1. Our findings associate diminished splicing of XBP-1 mRNA with accumulation of IgM within the ER and lower rates of chaperone transcription, therefore providing a mechanism to explain the observed hypogammaglobulinemia. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Reduced frequency of CD4(+)CD25(HIGH)FOXP3(+) cells and diminished FOXP3 expression in patients with Common Variable Immunodeficiency: A link to autoimmunity?

Common Variable Immunodeficiency (CVID) is a primary immunodeficiency disease characterized by defective immunoglobulin production and often associated with autoimmunity. We used flow cytometry to analyze CD4(+)CD25(HIGH)FOXP3(+) T regulatory (Treg) cells and ask whether perturbations in their frequency in peripheral blood could underlie the high incidence of autoimmune disorders in CVID patients. In this study, we report for the first time that CVID patients with autoimmune disease have a significantly reduced frequency of CD4(+)CD25(HIGH)FOXP3(+) cells in their peripheral blood accompanied by a decreased intensity of FOXP3 expression. Notably, although CVID patients in whom autoimmunity was not diagnosed had a reduced frequency of CD4(+)CD25(HIGH)FOXP3(+) cells, FOXP3 expression levels did not differ from those in healthy controls. In conclusion, these data suggest compromised homeostasis of CD4(+)CD25(HIGH)FOXP3(+) cells in a subset of CVID patients with autoimmunity, and may implicate Treg cells in pathological mechanisms of CVID. (C) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Discontinuous local semiflows for Kurzweil equations leading to LaSalle`s invariance principle for differential systems with impulses at variable times

In this paper, we consider an initial value problem for a class of generalized ODEs, also known as Kurzweil equations, and we prove the existence of a local semidynamical system there. Under certain perturbation conditions, we also show that this class of generalized ODEs admits a discontinuous semiflow which we shall refer to as an impulsive semidynamical system. As a consequence, we obtain LaSalle`s invariance principle for such a class of generalized ODEs. Due to the importance of LaSalle`s invariance principle in studying stability of differential systems, we include an application to autonomous ordinary differential systems with impulse action at variable times. (C) 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.