Extreme value Birnbaum-Saunders regression models applied to environmental data

Extreme value models are widely used in different areas. The Birnbaum–Saunders distribution is receiving considerable attention due to its physical arguments and its good properties. We propose a methodology based on extreme value Birnbaum–Saunders regression models, which includes model formulation, estimation, inference and checking. We further conduct a simulation study for evaluating its performance. A statistical analysis with real-world extreme value environmental data using the methodology is provided as illustration.

Forecasting time series combining Holt-Winters and bootstrap approaches

Publicado em "AIP Conference Proceedings", Vol. 1648

An innovative framework for probabilistic-based structural assessment with an application to existing reinforced concrete structures

A novel framework for probabilistic-based structural assessment of existing structures, which combines model identification and reliability assessment procedures, considering in an objective way different sources of uncertainty, is presented in this paper. A short description of structural assessment applications, provided in literature, is initially given. Then, the developed model identification procedure, supported in a robust optimization algorithm, is presented. Special attention is given to both experimental and numerical errors, to be considered in this algorithm convergence criterion. An updated numerical model is obtained from this process. The reliability assessment procedure, which considers a probabilistic model for the structure in analysis, is then introduced, incorporating the results of the model identification procedure. The developed model is then updated, as new data is acquired, through a Bayesian inference algorithm, explicitly addressing statistical uncertainty. Finally, the developed framework is validated with a set of reinforced concrete beams, which were loaded up to failure in laboratory.

Transferência de Energia sem fios para carregamento de baterias

Dissertação de mestrado integrado em Engenharia Eletrónica Industrial e Computadores

Specification and testing of multiplicative time-varying GARCH models with applications

In this article, we develop a specification technique for building multiplicative time-varying GARCH models of Amado and Teräsvirta (2008, 2013). The variance is decomposed into an unconditional and a conditional component such that the unconditional variance component is allowed to evolve smoothly over time. This nonstationary component is defined as a linear combination of logistic transition functions with time as the transition variable. The appropriate number of transition functions is determined by a sequence of specification tests. For that purpose, a coherent modelling strategy based on statistical inference is presented. It is heavily dependent on Lagrange multiplier type misspecification tests. The tests are easily implemented as they are entirely based on auxiliary regressions. Finite-sample properties of the strategy and tests are examined by simulation. The modelling strategy is illustrated in practice with two real examples: an empirical application to daily exchange rate returns and another one to daily coffee futures returns.

Extensive admixture and selective pressure across the Sahel Belt

Genome-wide studies of African populations have the potential to reveal powerful insights into the evolution of our species, as these diverse populations have been exposed to intense selective pressures imposed by infectious diseases, diet, and environmental factors. Within Africa, the Sahel Belt extensively overlaps the geographical center of several endemic infections such as malaria, trypanosomiasis, meningitis, and hemorrhagic fevers. We screened 2.5 million single nucleotide polymorphisms in 161 individuals from 13 Sahelian populations, which together with published data cover Western, Central, and Eastern Sahel, and include both nomadic and sedentary groups. We confirmed the role of this Belt as a main corridor for human migrations across the continent. Strong admixture was observed in both Central and Eastern Sahelian populations, with North Africans and Near Eastern/Arabians, respectively, but it was inexistent in Western Sahelian populations. Genome-wide local ancestry inference in admixed Sahelian populations revealed several candidate regions that were significantly enriched for non-autochthonous haplotypes, and many showed to be under positive selection. The DARC gene region in Arabs and Nubians was enriched for African ancestry, whereas the RAB3GAP1/LCT/MCM6 region in Oromo, the TAS2R gene family in Fulani, and the ALMS1/NAT8 in Turkana and Samburu were enriched for non-African ancestry. Signals of positive selection varied in terms of geographic amplitude. Some genomic regions were selected across the Belt, the most striking example being the malaria-related DARC gene. Others were Western-specific (oxytocin, calcium, and heart pathways), Eastern-specific (lipid pathways), or even population-restricted (TAS2R genes in Fulani, which may reflect sexual selection).

The bounds of education in the human brain connectome

Inter-individual heterogeneity is evident in aging; education level is known to contribute for this heterogeneity. Using a cross-sectional study design and network inference applied to resting-state fMRI data, we show that aging was associated with decreased functional connectivity in a large cortical network. On the other hand, education level, as measured by years of formal education, produced an opposite effect on the long-term. These results demonstrate the increased brain efficiency in individuals with higher education level that may mitigate the impact of age on brain functional connectivity.

Real-time monitoring of progression towards renal failure in primary care patients

First published online: December 16, 2014.

Quando a luta pelos direitos sexuais se faz no feminino: um estudo de caso sobre o associativismo lésbico em Portugal

Dissertação de mestrado em Sociologia (área de especialização em Desenvolvimento e Políticas Sociais)

Thermal technologies in food processing

[Excerpt] Introduction: Thermal processing is probably the most important process in food industry that has been used since prehistoric times, when it was discovered that heat enhanced the palatability and the life of the heat-treated food. Thermal processing comprehends the heating of foods at a defined temperature for a certain length of time. However, in some foods, the high thermotolerance of certain enzymes and microorganisms, their physical properties (e.g.,highviscosity),ortheircomponents(e.g.,solidfractions) require the application of extreme heat treatments that not only are energy intensive, but also will adversely affect the nutritional and organoleptic properties of the food. Technologies such as ohmic heating, dielectric heating (which includes microwave heating and radiofrequency heating), inductive heating, and infrared heating are available to replace, or complement, the traditional heat-dependent technologies (heating through superheated steam, hot air, hot water, or other hot liquid, being the heating achieved either through direct contact with those agents – mostly superheated steam – or through contact with a hot surface which is in turn heated by such agents). Given that the “traditional” heatdependent technologies are thoroughly described in the literature, this text will be mainly devoted to the so-called “novel” thermal technologies. (...)

A relação entre família e escola e a perspectiva de minimização das dificuldades comportamentais e cognitivas apresentadas por adolescentes com Síndrome do Alcoolismo Fetal (SAF): estudos de casos na cidade de Manaus

Dissertação de mestrado em Educação Especial (área de especialização em Dificuldades de Aprendizagem Específicas)

Inclusão escolar de alunos com necessidades educativas especiais: um estudo sobre as perceções de professores de educação física de escolas com sala de recursos multifuncionais na cidade de Manaus

Dissertação de mestrado em Educação Especial (área de especialização em Dificuldades de Aprendizagem Específicas)

Hierarchical modelling of timber reference properties using probabilistic methods: Maximum Likelihood Method, Bayesian Methods and Probability Networks

In recent decades, an increased interest has been evidenced in the research on multi-scale hierarchical modelling in the field of mechanics, and also in the field of wood products and timber engineering. One of the main motivations for hierar-chical modelling is to understand how properties, composition and structure at lower scale levels may influence and be used to predict the material properties on a macroscopic and structural engineering scale. This chapter presents the applicability of statistic and probabilistic methods, such as the Maximum Likelihood method and Bayesian methods, in the representation of timber’s mechanical properties and its inference accounting to prior information obtained in different importance scales. These methods allow to analyse distinct timber’s reference properties, such as density, bending stiffness and strength, and hierarchically consider information obtained through different non, semi or destructive tests. The basis and fundaments of the methods are described and also recommendations and limitations are discussed. The methods may be used in several contexts, however require an expert’s knowledge to assess the correct statistic fitting and define the correlation arrangement between properties.

O planeamento civil de emergência no novo paradigma da segurança

Dissertação de Mestrado em Estratégia

Fatalidade ou missão:estudo exploratório sobre as estratégias utilizadas pelas Ajudantes de Lar, para fazer face às exigências da sua profissão

Dissertação de Mestrado em Políticas de Desenvolvimento de Recursos Humanos