A hybrid commodity price-forecasting model applied to the sugar-alcohol sector

Accurate price forecasting for agricultural commodities can have significant decision-making implications for suppliers, especially those of biofuels, where the agriculture and energy sectors intersect. Environmental pressures and high oil prices affect demand for biofuels and have reignited the discussion about effects on food prices. Suppliers in the sugar-alcohol sector need to decide the ideal proportion of ethanol and sugar to optimise their financial strategy. Prices can be affected by exogenous factors, such as exchange rates and interest rates, as well as non-observable variables like the convenience yield, which is related to supply shortages. The literature generally uses two approaches: artificial neural networks (ANNs), which are recognised as being in the forefront of exogenous-variable analysis, and stochastic models such as the Kalman filter, which is able to account for non-observable variables. This article proposes a hybrid model for forecasting the prices of agricultural commodities that is built upon both approaches and is applied to forecast the price of sugar. The Kalman filter considers the structure of the stochastic process that describes the evolution of prices. Neural networks allow variables that can impact asset prices in an indirect, nonlinear way, what cannot be incorporated easily into traditional econometric models.

Contribution of soil organic carbon to the ion exchange capacity of tropical soils

Highly weathered soils represent about 3 billion ha of the tropical region. Oxisols represent about 60% of the Brazilian territory (more than 5 million km 2), in areas of great agricultural importance. Soil organic carbon (SOC) can be responsible for more than 80% of the cation exchange capacity (CEC) of highly weathered soils, such as Oxisols and Ultisols. The objective of this study was to estimate the contribution of the SOC to the CEC of Brazilian soils from different orders. Surface samples (0.0 to 0.2 m) of 30 uncultivated soils (13 Oxisols, 6 Ultisols, 5 Alfisols, 3 Entisols, I Histosol, 1 Inceptisol. and I Molisol), under native forests and from reforestation sites from Sao Paulo State, Brazil, were collected in order to obtain a large variation of (electro)chemical, physical, and mineralogical soil attributes. Total content of SOC was quantified by titulometric and colorimetric methods. Effective cation exchange capacity (ECEC) was obtained by two methods: the indirect method-summation-estimated the ECECi from the sum of basic cations (Ca+ Mg+ K+ Na) and exchangeable Al; and the direct ECECd obtained by the compulsive exchange method, using unbuffered BaCl2 solution. The contribution of SOC to the soil CEC was estimated by the Bennema statistical method. The amount of SOC var ied from 6.6 g kg(-1) to 213.4 g kg(-1). while clay contents varied from 40 g kg(-1) to 716 g kg(-1). Soil organic carbon contents were strongly associated to the clay contents, suggesting that clay content was the primary variable in controling the variability of SOC contents in the samples. Cation exchange capacity varied from 7.0 mmol(c) kg(-1) to 137.8 mmol(c) kg(-1) and had a positive Correlation with SOC. The mean contribution (per grain) of the SOC (1.64 mmol(c)) for the soil CEC was more than 44 times higher than the contribution of the clay fraction (0.04 mmol(c),). A regression model that considered the SOC content as the only significant variable explained 60% of the variation in the soil total CEC. The importance of SOC was related to soil pedogenetic process, since its contribution to the soil CEC was more evident in Oxisols with predominance of Fe and Al (oxihydr)oxides in the mineral fraction or in Ultisols, that presented illuviated clay. The influence of SOC in the sign and in the magnitude of the net charge of soils reinforce the importance of agricultural management systems that preserve high levels of SOC, in order to improve their sustainability.

Environmental, land-use and economic implications of Brazilian sugarcane expansion 1996-2006

Governments are promoting biofuels and the resulting changes in land use and crop reallocation to biofuels production have raised concerns about impacts on environment and food security. The promotion of biofuels has also been questioned based on suggested marginal contribution to greenhouse gas emissions reduction, partly due to induced land use change causing greenhouse gas emissions. This study reports how the expansion of sugarcane in Brazil during 1996-2006 affected indicators for environment, land use and economy. The results indicate that sugarcane expansion did not in general contribute to direct deforestation in the traditional agricultural region where most of the expansion took place. The amount of forests on farmland in this area is below the minimum stated in law and the situation did not change over the studied period. Sugarcane expansion resulted in a significant reduction of pastures and cattle heads and higher economic growth than in neighboring areas. It could not be established to what extent the discontinuation of cattle production induced expansion of pastures in other areas, possibly leading to indirect deforestation. However, the results indicate that a possible migration of the cattle production reached further than the neighboring of expansion regions. Occurring at much smaller rates, expansion of sugarcane in regions such as the Amazon and the Northeast region was related to direct deforestation and competition with food crops, and appear not to have induced economic growth. These regions are not expected to experience substantial increases of sugarcane in the near future, but mitigating measures are warranted.

Determination of Vecuronium Bromide in Pharmaceuticals: Development, Validation and Comparative Study of HPLC and CZE Analytical Methods

Vecuronium bromide is a neuromuscular blocking agent used for anesthesia to induce skeletal muscle relaxation. HPLC and CZE analytical methods were developed and validated for the quantitative determination of vecuronium bromide. The HPLC method was achieved on an amino column (Luna 150 x 4.6 mm, 5 mu m) using UV detection at 205 nm. The mobile phase was composed of acetonitrile:water containing 25.0 mmol L(-1) of sodium phosphate monobasic (50:50 v/v), pH 4.6 and flow rate of 1.0 mL min(-1). The CZE method was achieved on an uncoated fused-silica capillary (40.0 cm total length, 31.5 cm effective length and 50 mu m i.d.) using indirect UV detection at 230 nm. The electrolyte comprised 1.0 mmol L(-1) of quinine sulfate dihydrate at pH 3.3 and 8.0% of acetonitrile. The results were used to compare both techniques. No significant differences were observed (p > 0.05).

Isolation and functional characterization of proinflammatory acidic phospholipase A(2) from Bothrops leucurus snake venom

In the present study, an acidic PLA(2), designated BI-PLA(2), was isolated from Bothrops leucurus snake venom through two chromatographic steps: ion-exchange on CM-Sepharose and hydrophobic chromatography on Phenyl-Sepharose. Bl-PLA(2) was homogeneous on SDS-PAGE and when submitted to 2D electrophoresis the molecular mass was 15,000 Da and pl was 5.4. Its N-terminal sequence revealed a high homology with other Asp49 acidic PLA(2)s from snake venoms. Its specific activity was 159.9 U/mg and the indirect hemolytic activity was also higher than that of the crude venom. Bl-PLA(2) induced low myotoxic and edema activities as compared to those of the crude venom. Moreover, the enzyme was able to induce increments in IL-12p40, TNF-alpha, IL-1 beta and IL-6 levels and no variation of IL-8 and IL-10 in human PBMC stimulated in vitro, suggesting that Bl-PLA2 induces proinflammatory cytokine production by human mononuclear cells. Bothrops leucurus venom is still not extensively explored and knowledge of its components will contribute for a better understanding of its action mechanism. (C) 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Transcription regulation of the PbGP43 gene by nitrogen in the human pathogen Paracoccidioides brasiliensis

We show indirect evidences for the possible involvement of NIT-2-like binding motifs in transcription modulation of the PbGP43 gene, which codes for an important antigen from the human fungal pathogen Paracoccidioides brasiliensis. This investigation was motivated by the finding of 23 NIT2-like sites within the proximal -2047 nucleotides of the PbGP43 5` intergenic region from the Pb339 isolate. They compose four clusters, two of them identical. We found four NIT2-containing probes that were positive in electrophoretic mobility shift assays and further analyzed them. PbGP43 could be modulated by nitrogen primary sources in Pb339, Pb3 and Pb18 isolates, as observed by reverse transcription (RT) real time-PCR. Gene reporter assays conducted in Aspergillus nidulans suggested that the minimal fragment responsible for nitrogen modulation lies within -480 bp of the PbGP43 gene. This is the first report on PbGP43 transcription modulation in response to nitrogen primary sources, which might help understand its regulation during infection. (C) 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Influence sexual dimorphism on the persistence of blood parasites in infected Calomys callosus

Gender has long been known to be a contributory factor in the incidence and progression of disorders associated with immune system disregulation. The aims of this experiment were to verify the influences of sexual dimorphism on the persistence of blood parasites out of the acute phase of infection. Male and female Calomys callosus were separated and infected with two strains of Trypanosoma cruzi, and let age until 120 days. Xenogiagnostic, culture of organs and blood, histopathology and lytic antibody percentages were evaluated on late chronic phase. Xenodiagnosis, hemoculture and lytic antibody percentages were positive front 45 until 120 days. For both strains in adrenal and heart, amastigote burdens were present until 45 days, scarcely found on 60 days and absent on 120 days. Steroid hormones, although having a protective role, does not enable animals to get completely rid of the infection. Even without showing apparent signs of pathological unbalance, parasite persists, hidden throughout the host`s body. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Neutralization of pharmacological and toxic activities of Bothrops snake venoms by Schizolobium parahyba (Fabaceae) aqueous extract and its fractions

The aqueous extract prepared from Schizolobium parahyba (Sp) leaves, a native plant from Atlantic Forest (Brazil), was tested to analyse its ability to inhibit some biological and enzymatic activities induced by Bothrops alternatus (BaltCV) and Bothrops moojeni (BmooCV) snake venoms. Sp inhibited 100% of lethality, blood incoagulability, haemorrhagic and indirect haemolytic activities at a 1:10 ratio (venom/extract, w/w), as well as coagulant activity at a 1:5 ratio (venom/extract, w/w) induced by both venoms. BaltCV fibrinogenolytic activity was also neutralized by Sp at a 1:10 ratio, resulting in total protection of fibrinogen B beta chain and partial protection of A alpha chain. Interaction tests have demonstrated that, at certain extract/proteins ratios, Sp precipitates proteins non-specifically suggesting the presence of tannins, which are very likely responsible for the excellent inhibiting effects of the analysed ophidian activities. Sp aqueous extract chromatography on Sephadex LH-20 was carried out aiming at the separation of these compounds that mask the obtained results. Thus, the fractionation of Sp resulted in three fractions: F1 (methanolic fraction); F2 (methanol:water fraction, 1:1 v/v); and F3 (aqueous fraction). These fractions were analysed for their ability to inhibit the BaltCV fibrinogenolytic activity. F1 inhibited 100% the venom fibrinogenolytic activity without presenting protein precipitation effect; F2 showed only partial inhibition of this venom activity. Finally, F3 did not inhibit fibrinogen proteolysis, but presented strong protein precipitating action. We conclude that Sp aqueous extract, together with tannins, also contains other compounds that can display specific inhibitory activity against snake venom toxins.

Strongyloides venezuelensis: The antigenic identity of eight strains for the immunodiagnosis of human strongyloidiasis

The antigens of eight strains of Strongyloides venezuelensis were identified by means of the indirect immunofluorescence antibody (IFAT), enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) and immunoblot (IB) tests. Infective larvae (L3) from these strains were obtained from Rattus norvegicus feces cultures. For IFAT, sections of U were used while the ELISA and IB, tests were conducted with alkaline extract. Ninety serum samples were tested: 30 from patients with S. stercoralis, 30 from patients with other parasitic diseases, and 30 from healthy subjects (free of parasites). Average sensitivity and specificity among all eight strains, both for IFAT and ELISA, were, respectively, 93% and 100%. In the IB, anti-S. stercoralis IgG recognized a single antigenic fraction with 45 kDa. Serum samples from patients with S. stercoralis revealed antigens from different strains of S. venezuelensis, indicating antigenic identity for possible use in the synthesis of recombinant antigen that could be useful in immunodiagnosis and vaccine against this parasite. (C) 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Prior and concomitant dehydroepiandrosterone treatment affects immunologic response of cultured macrophages infected with Trypanosoma cruzi in vitro?

DHEA, a steroid hormone synthesized from cholesterol by cells of the adrenal cortex, plays an essential role in enhancing the host`s resistance to different experimental infections. Receptors for this hormone can be found in distinct immune cells (especially macrophages) that are known to be the first line defense against Trypanosoma cruzi infection. These cells operate through an indirect pathway releasing nitric oxide (NO) and cytokines such TNF-alpha and IL-12 which in turn trigger an enhancement of natural killer cells and lymphocytes which finally secrete pro and anti-inflammatory cytokines. The effects of pre- and post-infection DHEA treatment on production of IL-12, TNF alpha and NO were evaluated. T. cruzi infected macrophages post treated with DHEA displayed enhanced concentrations of TNF-alpha, IL-12 and NO. Probably, the mechanisms that induced the production of cytokines by infected cells are more efficient when the immune system has been stimulated first by parasite invasion, suggesting that the protective role of DHEA is greater when administered post infection. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of Environmental Mycobacteria Contamination in a Specific Pathogen Free Animal Facility from a Tropical Country

P>With the evidence showing the protection variability of bacille Calmette-Guerin, new potential vaccines for tuberculosis have been tested around the world. One of the general concerns in tuberculosis vaccine development is the possibility of priming the host immune system with prior exposure to environmental mycobacteria antigens, which can change the efficacy of subsequent vaccination. As there is a great homology between the species from Mycobacterium genera, the previous contact of experimental animals with environmental mycobacteria could sensitize the mice and, in this way, could influence subsequent vaccine research. The aim of our study was to investigate critical points in an animal facility to search for environmental mycobacteria that eventually could be in direct or indirect contact with the experimental animals. Samples were collected from surfaces of walls, floor, animal cages and shelves and analysed using the Ogawa-Kudoh decontamination method. Samples of drinking water, food and sawdust were collected for analysis by the NALC/NaOH decontamination method. Also, the samples were cultivated directly in broth medium, without any method for decontamination. After decontamination methods, we observed bacterial colony growth in 4.31% of the total of samples analysed. These samples were stained with Ziehl-Neelsen and we did not detect any acid-fast bacilli, suggesting that the animal facility analysed is free from contamination by environmental mycobacteria and is not a source of mycobacterial antigens. Furthermore, our study showed a new paradigm in tuberculosis vaccine development: concern about the animal facility environment in terms of immune system priming of experimental animals by nascent bacterial contaminants.

The azo dyes Disperse Red 1 and Disperse Orange 1 increase the micronuclei frequencies in human lymphocytes and in HepG2 cells

The use of azo dyes by different industries can cause direct and/or indirect effects oil human and environmental health due to the discharge of industrial effluents that contain these toxic compounds. Several studies have demonstrated the genotoxic effects of various azo dyes, but information on the DNA damage caused by Disperse Red 1 and Disperse Orange 1 is unavailable, although these dyes are used in dyeing processes in many countries. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the mutagenic activity of Disperse Red 1 and Disperse Orange 1 using the micronucleus (MN) assay in human lymphocytes and in HepG2 cells. In the lymphocyte assay. it was found that the number of MN induced by the lowest concentration of each dye (0.2 mu g/mL) was similar to that of the negative control. At the other concentrations, a dose response MN formation was observed up to 1.0 mu g/mL. At higher dose levels, the number of MN decreased. For the HepG2 cells the results were similar. With both dyes a dose dependent increase in the frequency of MN was detected. However for the HepG2, the threshold for this increase was 2.0 mu g/mL, while at higher doses a reduction in the MN number was observed. The proliferation index was also calculated in order to evaluate acute toxicity during the test. No differences were detected between the different concentrations tested and the negative control. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Association Among Microalbuminuria and Oxidative Stress Biomarkers in Patients With Type 2 Diabetes

Aim: Hyperglycemia in diabetes mellitus (DM) may be one of the most important factors responsible for the development of oxidative stress, which promotes the main complications in DM patients. Therefore, this study evaluated if the hyperglycemia could be related to oxidative stress biomarkers, lipid profile, and renal function in type 2 diabetes patients without clinic complications. Methods: Plasmatic malondialdehyde (MDA), serum protein carbonyl (PCO), serum creatinine levels, microalbuminuria, glycated hemoglobin, and lipid profile were analyzed in 37 type 2 diabetic patients and 25 subjects with no diabetes. Results: Serum creatinine levels were within the reference values, but microalbuminuria presented increased levels in all the patients compared with controls (P G 0.05) and above of the reference values. The MDA, PCO, low- density lipoprotein, and triglyceride levels showed positive correlation with microalbuminuria levels. Moreover, glycated hemoglobin presented positive correlation with MDA, PCO, and microalbuminuria levels. Conclusions: The hyperglycemia could be responsible for the increase of the microalbuminuria levels and for the oxidation process in lipids and proteins in DM patients. Therefore, we suggested that the microvascular lesion is a direct consequence from hyperglycemia and an indirect one from the increased oxidative stress. Malondialdehyde and protein carbonyl levels could be suggested as additional biochemical evaluation to verify tissue damage in type 2 DM patients.

High-level and phonological awareness abilities of children following management for supratentorial tumour: Part II

Background. Limited information is available regarding the impact of childhood tumour on the cerebral hemispheres and supratentorial cranial fossa. However, a recent study found that children managed for a tumour located in this region may demonstrate reduced general language abilities. However, the indirect or direct impact of a tumour in this region on higher-level language abilities in childhood is at present largely unknown. Materials and methods. The present study examined the higher language and phonological awareness abilities of five children treated for supratentorial tumour ranging in age from seven to fourteen years in age. Assessments included measures of receptive and expressive semantic abilities, inferencing, figurative language, and problem solving, as well as a comprehensive pre-literacy test. Results. As a group, reductions were evident in problem solving, and in the ability to receive and decode content of high-level language when compared to a group of age- and gender-matched peers. At an individual level, only two of five children managed for supratentorial tumour demonstrated language deficits. These two cases were noted to be the same children previously identified as also having general language deficits. More widespread findings were noted in phonological awareness, with four of the five children previously managed for supratentorial tumour demonstrating weaknesses in one or more areas. Conclusions. Findings demonstrated that weaknesses in general language ability in children managed for supratentorial tumour may indicate higher-level language difficulties. Language abilities beyond general measures of language should be monitored, as well as long-term consideration of phonological awareness abilities in this population.

Insect densoviruses may be widespread in mosquito cell lines

A diagnostic PCR assay was designed based on conserved regions of previously sequenced densovirus genomic DNA isolated from mosquitoes. Application of this assay to different insect cell lines resulted in a number of cases of consistent positive amplification of the predicted size fragment. Positive PCR results were subsequently confirmed to correlate with densovirus infection by both electron microscopy and indirect fluorescent antibody test. In each case the nucleotide sequence of the amplified PCR fragments showed high identity to previously reported densoviruses isolated from mosquitoes. Phylogenetic analysis based on these sequences showed that two of these isolates were examples of new densoviruses. These viruses could infect and replicate in mosquitoes when administered orally or parenterally and these infections were largely avirulent. In one virus/mosquito combination vertical transmission to progeny was observed. The frequency with which these viruses were detected would suggest that they may be quite common in insect cell lines.