Vegetation Changes and Timberline Fluctuations in the Central Alps as Indicators of Holocene Climatic Oscillations

Pollen and plant-macrofossil data are presented for two lakes near the timberline in the Italian (Lago Basso, 2250 m) and Swiss Central Alps (Gouille Rion, 2343 m). The reforestation at both sites started at 9700-9500 BP with Pinus cembra, Larbc decidua, and Betula. The timberline reached its highest elevation between 8700 and 5000 BP and retreated after 5000 BP, due to a mid-Holocene climatic change and increasing human impact since about 3500 BP (Bronze Age). The expansion of Picea abies at Lago Basso between ca. 7500 and 6200 BP was probably favored by cold phases accompanied by increased oceanicity, whereas in the area of Gouille Rion, where spruce expanded rather late (between 4500 and 3500 BP), human influence equally might have been important. The mass expansion of Alnus viridis between ca. 5000 and 3500 BP probably can be related to both climatic change and human activity at timberline. During the early and middle Holocene a series of timberline fluctuations is recorded as declines in pollen and macrofossil concentrations of the major tree species, and as increases in nonarboreal pollen in the pollen percentage diagram of Gouille Rion. Most of ·the periods of low timberline can be correlated by radiocarbon dating with climatic changes in the Alps as indicated by glacier ad­ vances in combination with palynological records, solifluction, and dendrocli­ matical data. Lago Basso and Gouille Rion are the only sites in the Alps showing complete palaeobotanical records of cold phases between 10,000 and 2000 BP with very good time control. The altitudinal range of the Holocene treeline fluc­ tuations caused by climate most likely was not more than 100 to 150 m. A possible correlation of a cold period at ca. 7500-6500 BP (Misox oscil­ lation) in the Alps is made with paleoecological data from North America and Scandinavia and a climatic signal in the GRIP ice core from central Greenland 8200 yr ago (ca. 7400 yr uncal. BP).

Soil indicators to assess the effectiveness of restoration strategies in dryland ecosystems

Soil indicators may be used for assessing both land suitability for restoration and the effectiveness of restoration strategies in restoring ecosystem functioning and services. In this review paper, several soil indicators, which can be used to assess the effectiveness of ecological restoration strategies in dryland ecosystems at different spatial and temporal scales, are discussed. The selected indicators represent the different viewpoints of pedology, ecology, hydrology, and land management. Two overall outcomes stem from the review. (i) The success of restoration projects relies on a proper understanding of their ecology, namely the relationships between soil, plants, hydrology, climate, and land management at different scales, which are particularly complex due to the heterogeneous pattern of ecosystems functioning in drylands. (ii) The selection of the most suitable soil indicators follows a clear identification of the different and sometimes competing ecosystem services that the project is aimed at restoring.

Modern diatom, cladocera, chironomid, and chrysophyte cyst assemblages as quantitative indicators for the reconstruction of past environmental conditions in the Alps. II. Nutrients

Surface sediments from 68 small lakes in the Alps and 9 well-dated sediment core samples that cover a gradient of total phosphorus (TP) concentrations of 6 to 520 μg TP l-1 were studied for diatom, chrysophyte cyst, cladocera, and chironomid assemblages. Inference models for mean circulation log10 TP were developed for diatoms, chironomids, and benthic cladocera using weighted-averaging partial least squares. After screening for outliers, the final transfer functions have coefficients of determination (r2, as assessed by cross-validation, of 0.79 (diatoms), 0.68 (chironomids), and 0.49 (benthic cladocera). Planktonic cladocera and chrysophytes show very weak relationships to TP and no TP inference models were developed for these biota. Diatoms showed the best relationship with TP, whereas the other biota all have large secondary gradients, suggesting that variables other than TP have a strong influence on their composition and abundance. Comparison with other diatom – TP inference models shows that our model has high predictive power and a low root mean squared error of prediction, as assessed by cross-validation.

Using Leading Indicators to Forecast US Home Sales in a Bayesian VAR Framework

This paper uses Bayesian vector autoregressive models to examine the usefulness of leading indicators in predicting US home sales. The benchmark Bayesian model includes home sales, the price of homes, the mortgage rate, real personal disposable income, and the unemployment rate. We evaluate the forecasting performance of six alternative leading indicators by adding each, in turn, to the benchmark model. Out-of-sample forecast performance over three periods shows that the model that includes building permits authorized consistently produces the most accurate forecasts. Thus, the intention to build in the future provides good information with which to predict home sales. Another finding suggests that leading indicators with longer leads outperform the short-leading indicators.

Critical indicators associated with negative performance in a selectively manned unit

Introduction. Selectively manned units have a long, international history, both military and civilian. Some examples include SWAT teams, firefighters, the FBI, the DEA, the CIA, and military Special Operations. These special duty operators are individuals who perform a highly skilled and dangerous job in a unique environment. A significant amount of money is spent by the Department of Defense (DoD) and other federal agencies to recruit, select, train, equip and support these operators. When a critical incident or significant life event occurs, that jeopardizes an operator's performance; there can be heavy losses in terms of training, time, money, and potentially, lives. In order to limit the number of critical incidents, selection processes have been developed over time to “select out” those individuals most likely to perform below desired performance standards under pressure or stress and to "select in" those with the "right stuff". This study is part of a larger program evaluation to assess markers that identify whether a person will fail under the stresses in a selectively manned unit. The primary question of the study is whether there are indicators in the selection process that signify potential negative performance at a later date. ^ Methods. The population being studied included applicants to a selectively manned DoD organization between 1993 and 2001 as part of a unit assessment and selection process (A&S). Approximately 1900 A&S records were included in the analysis. Over this nine year period, seventy-two individuals were determined to have had a critical incident. A critical incident can come in the form of problems with the law, personal, behavioral or family problems, integrity issues, and skills deficit. Of the seventy-two individuals, fifty-four of these had full assessment data and subsequent supervisor performance ratings which assessed how an individual performed while on the job. This group was compared across a variety of variables including demographics and psychometric testing with a group of 178 individuals who did not have a critical incident and had been determined to be good performers with positive ratings by their supervisors.^ Results. In approximately 2004, an online pre-screen survey was developed in the hopes of preselecting out those individuals with items that would potentially make them ineligible for selection to this organization. This survey has aided the organization to increase its selection rates and save resources in the process. (Patterson, Howard Smith, & Fisher, Unit Assessment and Selection Project, 2008) When the same prescreen was used on the critical incident individuals, it was found that over 60% of the individuals would have been flagged as unacceptable. This would have saved the organization valuable resources and heartache.^ There were some subtle demographic differences between the two groups (i.e. those with critical incidents were almost twice as likely to be divorced compared with the positive performers). Upon comparison of Psychometric testing several items were noted to be different. The two groups were similar when their IQ levels were compared using the Multidimensional Aptitude Battery (MAB). When looking at the Minnesota Multiphasic Personality Inventory (MMPI), there appeared to be a difference on the MMPI Social Introversion; the Critical Incidence group scored somewhat higher. When analysis was done, the number of MMPI Critical Items between the two groups was similar as well. When scores on the NEO Personality Inventory (NEO) were compared, the critical incident individuals tended to score higher on Openness and on its subscales (Ideas, Actions, and Feelings). There was a positive correlation between Total Neuroticism T Score and number of MMPI critical items.^ Conclusions. This study shows that the current pre-screening process is working and would have saved the organization significant resources. ^ If one was to develop a profile of a candidate who potentially could suffer a critical incident and subsequently jeopardize the unit, mission and the safety of the public they would look like the following: either divorced or never married, score high on the MMPI in Social Introversion, score low on MMPI with an "excessive" amount of MMPI critical items; and finally scores high on the NEO Openness and subscales Ideas, Feelings, and Actions.^ Based on the results gleaned from the analysis in this study there seems to be several factors, within psychometric testing, that when taken together, will aid the evaluators in selecting only the highest quality operators in order to save resources and to help protect the public from unfortunate critical incidents which may adversely affect our health and safety.^

THE APPLICATION OF CIRRHOSIS MORTALITY AND SUICIDE MORTALITY AS INDICATORS FOR ALCOHOLISM PLANNING

This study provides a review of the current alcoholism planning process of the Houston-Galveston planning process of the Houston-Galveston Area Council, an agency carrying out planning for a thirteen county region in surrounding Houston, Texas. The four central groups involved in this planning are identified, and the role that each plays and how it effects the planning outcomes is discussed.^ The most substantive outcome of the Houston-Galveston Area Council's alcoholism planning, the Regional Alcoholism/Alcohol Abuse Plan is examined. Many of the shortcomings in the data provided, and the lack of other data necessary for planning are offered.^ A problem oriented planning model is presented as an alternative to the Houston-Galveston Area Council's current service oriented approach to alcoholism planning. Five primary phases of the model, identification of the problem, statement of objectives, selection of alternative programs, implementation, and evaluation, are presented, and an overview of the tasks involved in the application of this model to alcoholism planning is offered.^ A specific aspect of the model, the use of problem status indicators is explored using cirrhosis and suicide mortality data. A review of the literature suggests that based on five criteria, availability, subgroup identification, validity, reliability, and sensitivity, both suicide and cirrhosis are suitable as indicators of the alcohol problem when combined with other indicators.^ Cirrhosis and suicide mortality data are examined for the thirteen county Houston-Galveston Region for the years 1969 through 1976. Data limitations preclude definite conclusions concerning the alcohol problem in the region. Three hypotheses about the nature of the regional alcohol problem are presented. First, there appears to be no linear trend in the number of alcoholics that are at risk of suicide and cirrhosis mortality. Second, the number of alcoholics in the metropolitan areas seems to be greater than the number of rural areas. Third, the number of male alcoholics at risk of cirrhosis and suicide mortality is greater than the number of female alcoholics.^

The application of principal component analysis on human development indicators: Temporal approach from 1999 to 2010

Background and Objective. Ever since the human development index was published in 1990 by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), many researchers started searching and corporative studying for more effective methods to measure the human development. Published in 1999, Lai’s “Temporal analysis of human development indicators: principal component approach” provided a valuable statistical way on human developmental analysis. This study presented in the thesis is the extension of Lai’s 1999 research. ^ Methods. I used the weighted principal component method on the human development indicators to measure and analyze the progress of human development in about 180 countries around the world from the year 1999 to 2010. The association of the main principal component obtained from the study and the human development index reported by the UNDP was estimated by the Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient. The main principal component was then further applied to quantify the temporal changes of the human development of selected countries by the proposed Z-test. ^ Results. The weighted means of all three human development indicators, health, knowledge, and standard of living, were increased from 1999 to 2010. The weighted standard deviation for GDP per capita was also increased across years indicated the rising inequality of standard of living among countries. The ranking of low development countries by the main principal component (MPC) is very similar to that by the human development index (HDI). Considerable discrepancy between MPC and HDI ranking was found among high development countries with high GDP per capita shifted to higher ranks. The Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient between the main principal component and the human development index were all around 0.99. All the above results were very close to outcomes in Lai’s 1999 report. The Z test result on temporal analysis of main principal components from 1999 to 2010 on Qatar was statistically significant, but not on other selected countries, such as Brazil, Russia, India, China, and U.S.A.^ Conclusion. To synthesize the multi-dimensional measurement of human development into a single index, the weighted principal component method provides a good model by using the statistical tool on a comprehensive ranking and measurement. Since the weighted main principle component index is more objective because of using population of nations as weight, more effective when the analysis is across time and space, and more flexible when the countries reported to the system has been changed year after year. Thus, in conclusion, the index generated by using weighted main principle component has some advantage over the human development index created in UNDP reports.^

Differences in performance for quality of care indicators for acute myocardial infarction (AMI) across various hospital categories in Texas

The study analyzed Hospital Compare data for Medicare Fee-for-service patients at least 65 years of age to determine whether hospital performance for AMI outcome and processes of care measures differ amongst Texas hospitals with respect to ownership status (for profit vs. not-for-profit), academic status (teaching vs. non-teaching) and geographical setting (rural vs. urban). ^ The study found a statistically significant difference between for-profit and not-for-profit hospitals in four process-of-care measures (aspirin at discharge, P=0.028; ACE or ARB inhibitor for LSVD, P=0.048; Smoking cessation advice: P=0.034; outpatients who got aspirin with 24 hours of arrival in the ED, P=0.044). No significant difference in performance was found between COTH-member teaching and non-teaching hospitals for any of the eight process-of-care measures or the two outcome measures for AMI. The study was unable to compare performance based on geographic setting of hospitals due to lack of sufficient data for rural hospitals. ^ The results of the study suggest that for-profit Texas hospitals might be slightly better than not-for –profit hospitals at providing possible heart attack patients with certain processes of care.^

Genetic variants within the Wnt/ B-catenin signaling pathway as indicators of bladder cancer clinical outcomes

The genetic factors that influence bladder cancer clinical outcomes are largely unknown. In this clinical outcomes study, I assessed genetic variations in the Wnt/β-catenin stem-cell pathway genes for association with recurrence and progression. A total of 230 SNPS in 40 genes from the Wnt/β-catenin pathway were genotyped in 419 histologically confirmed non-muscle invasive bladder cancer cases. Several significant associations were observed in the clinical outcomes analysis. Under the dominant model WNT8B: rs4919464 (HR: 1.55, 95% CI: 1.17-2.06, P=2.2x10-3) and WNT8B: rs3793771 (HR: 1.54, 95% CI: 1.09-1.62, P=4.6x10-3 ) were statistically significantly associated with an increase risk of recurrence while two other variants, APC2: rs11668593 (HR: 2.50, 95% CI: 1.43-4.35, P=1.2x10-3) and LRP5 : rs312778 (HR: 1.81, 95% CI: 1.23-2.65, P=2.7x10-3), were significantly associated with recurrence risk under the recessive model of inheritance. Four SNPs in the recessive model were associated with an increased risk of progression (AXIN2: rs1544427, LRP5: rs312778, AXIN1: rs370681, AXIN1: rs2301522). LRP5: rs312778 had the most significant increased risk of progression with a 2.68 (95% CI: 1.52-4.72, P=6.4x10-4)-fold increased risk. Stratification analysis based on treatment regimen (transurethral resection (TUR) and Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG)) was also performed. Individuals with at least one variant in AXIN2: rs2007085 were found to have a 2.09 (95% CI: 1.24-3.52, P=5.4x10-3) -fold increased risk of recurrence in those that received TUR only, and no statistically significant effect was seen in those that received BCG. Individuals who received TUR with at least one variant in LEF1: rs10516550 were found to have a 2.26 (95% CI: 1.22-4.18, P=9.7x10-3)-fold increase risk of recurrence and no statistically significant effect was found in individuals who received BCG. Also, the recessive model of LRP6: rs2302684 in TUR only treatment was shown to have a 1.95 (95%CI: 1.18-3.21, P=8.8x10 -3)-fold increased risk of recurrence, and a suggested protective effect associated with a (HR: 0.83, 95% CI: 0.51-1.37, P=0.468) decreased risk of recurrence. Together, these findings implicate the Wnt/β-catenin stem-cell pathway as playing a role in bladder cancer clinical outcomes and have important implications for personalization of future treatment regimens. ^

Evaluation of long chain 1,14-alkyl diols in marine sediments as indicators for upwelling and temperature

Long chain alkyl diols form a group of lipids occurring widely in marine environments. Recent studies have suggested several palaeoclimatological applications for proxies based on their distributions, but also revealed uncertainties about their applicability. Here we evaluate the use of long chain 1,14-alkyl diol indices for reconstruction of temperature and upwelling conditions by comparing index values, obtained from a comprehensive set of marine surface sediments, with environmental factors like sea surface temperature (SST), salinity and nutrient concentrations. Previous cultivation efforts indicated a strong effect of temperature on the degree of saturation and the chain length distribution of long chain 1,14-alkyl diols in Proboscia spp., quantified in the diol saturation index (DSI) and diol chain length index (DCI), respectively. However, values of these indices in surface sediments show no relationship with annual mean SST of the overlying water. It remains unknown what determines the DSI, although our data suggests that it may be affected by diagenesis, while the relationship between temperature and DCI may be different for different Proboscia species. In addition, contributions of algae other than Proboscia diatoms may affect both indices, although our data provide no direct evidence for additional long chain 1,14-alkyl diol sources. Two other indices using the abundance of 1,14-diols vs. 1,13-diols and C30 1,15-diols have previously been applied as indicators for upwelling intensity at different locations. The geographical distribution of their values supports the use of 1,14 diols vs. 1,13 diols [C28 + C30 1,14-diols]/[(C28 + C30 1,13-diols) + (C28 + C30 1,14-diols)] as a general indicator for high nutrient or upwelling conditions.

Territorial quality and sustainable development : Indicators of performance in the context of a model for participatory rural tourism certification

El turismo rural ha sido incorporado por pequeños establecimientos agropecuarios del partido de Cnel. Suárez, provincia de Buenos Aires, Argentina, como actividad alternativa para mejorar la calidad de vida de sus miembros y superar situaciones de crisis agravadas por la marginalidad productiva del SO bonaerense, región a la que pertenecen. Bajo el programa Cambio Rural del INTA (Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria) conforman el Grupo 'Cortaderas II', junto a otros emprendedores interesados en valorar el medio rural. Han avanzado en el proceso de reconocimiento de su identidad y puesta en valor de recursos específicos con anclaje en el territorio. Esta identidad comienza a apreciarse internamente, a raíz de la dinámica grupal lograda y la incipiente articulación con otros actores para la construcción de un partenariado público y privado que genere sinergias y contribuya al desarrollo sustentable del territorio. Sin embargo, aún no es claramente percibida por el turista, cada vez más exigente. Por lo tanto, el presente trabajo persigue proponer indicadores para evaluar el desempeño de un Sistema de Gestión de Calidad con enfoque territorial que, adaptando el modelo europeo 'Marca de Calidad Territorial', sustente una estrategia comercial de diferenciación del servicio y simultáneamente, mida el progreso hacia una mejor calidad de vida y fortalecimiento de vínculos con la cultura local y el entorno físico-natural en el marco del desarrollo sustentable. La investigación se plantea para la micro escala, ya que se trata de un estudio de caso, relevándose información primaria mediante observación directa y entrevistas semi-estructuradas, complementada con información secundaria diagnóstica utilizada por INTA. Las características del grupo y su dinámica de funcionamiento bajo el programa Cambio Rural revelan que es posible adoptar un proceso de certificación participativa propuesto para cuatro pilares de la calidad: de Bienes y Servicios, Institucional, Social y Ambiental. El modelo se integra con indicadores de evaluación de desempeño, agrupados en áreas clave para cada una de las dimensiones de la sustentabilidad, que contemplan el paisaje y la gestión de los recursos naturales; el impacto económico de la actividad, la calidad de la oferta y satisfacción del turista; así como las relaciones sociales internas y los vínculos con otros actores del territorio. Principalmente se encontraron fortalezas en la búsqueda de partenariados y debilidades en aspectos de comunicación y promoción. Se considera que este sistema de herramientas de gestión sustentable permitiría superar las dificultades de una certificación individual, pudiendo aplicarse a emprendimientos con otra ubicación geográfica

Territorial quality and sustainable development : Indicators of performance in the context of a model for participatory rural tourism certification

El turismo rural ha sido incorporado por pequeños establecimientos agropecuarios del partido de Cnel. Suárez, provincia de Buenos Aires, Argentina, como actividad alternativa para mejorar la calidad de vida de sus miembros y superar situaciones de crisis agravadas por la marginalidad productiva del SO bonaerense, región a la que pertenecen. Bajo el programa Cambio Rural del INTA (Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria) conforman el Grupo 'Cortaderas II', junto a otros emprendedores interesados en valorar el medio rural. Han avanzado en el proceso de reconocimiento de su identidad y puesta en valor de recursos específicos con anclaje en el territorio. Esta identidad comienza a apreciarse internamente, a raíz de la dinámica grupal lograda y la incipiente articulación con otros actores para la construcción de un partenariado público y privado que genere sinergias y contribuya al desarrollo sustentable del territorio. Sin embargo, aún no es claramente percibida por el turista, cada vez más exigente. Por lo tanto, el presente trabajo persigue proponer indicadores para evaluar el desempeño de un Sistema de Gestión de Calidad con enfoque territorial que, adaptando el modelo europeo 'Marca de Calidad Territorial', sustente una estrategia comercial de diferenciación del servicio y simultáneamente, mida el progreso hacia una mejor calidad de vida y fortalecimiento de vínculos con la cultura local y el entorno físico-natural en el marco del desarrollo sustentable. La investigación se plantea para la micro escala, ya que se trata de un estudio de caso, relevándose información primaria mediante observación directa y entrevistas semi-estructuradas, complementada con información secundaria diagnóstica utilizada por INTA. Las características del grupo y su dinámica de funcionamiento bajo el programa Cambio Rural revelan que es posible adoptar un proceso de certificación participativa propuesto para cuatro pilares de la calidad: de Bienes y Servicios, Institucional, Social y Ambiental. El modelo se integra con indicadores de evaluación de desempeño, agrupados en áreas clave para cada una de las dimensiones de la sustentabilidad, que contemplan el paisaje y la gestión de los recursos naturales; el impacto económico de la actividad, la calidad de la oferta y satisfacción del turista; así como las relaciones sociales internas y los vínculos con otros actores del territorio. Principalmente se encontraron fortalezas en la búsqueda de partenariados y debilidades en aspectos de comunicación y promoción. Se considera que este sistema de herramientas de gestión sustentable permitiría superar las dificultades de una certificación individual, pudiendo aplicarse a emprendimientos con otra ubicación geográfica

Territorial quality and sustainable development : Indicators of performance in the context of a model for participatory rural tourism certification

El turismo rural ha sido incorporado por pequeños establecimientos agropecuarios del partido de Cnel. Suárez, provincia de Buenos Aires, Argentina, como actividad alternativa para mejorar la calidad de vida de sus miembros y superar situaciones de crisis agravadas por la marginalidad productiva del SO bonaerense, región a la que pertenecen. Bajo el programa Cambio Rural del INTA (Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria) conforman el Grupo 'Cortaderas II', junto a otros emprendedores interesados en valorar el medio rural. Han avanzado en el proceso de reconocimiento de su identidad y puesta en valor de recursos específicos con anclaje en el territorio. Esta identidad comienza a apreciarse internamente, a raíz de la dinámica grupal lograda y la incipiente articulación con otros actores para la construcción de un partenariado público y privado que genere sinergias y contribuya al desarrollo sustentable del territorio. Sin embargo, aún no es claramente percibida por el turista, cada vez más exigente. Por lo tanto, el presente trabajo persigue proponer indicadores para evaluar el desempeño de un Sistema de Gestión de Calidad con enfoque territorial que, adaptando el modelo europeo 'Marca de Calidad Territorial', sustente una estrategia comercial de diferenciación del servicio y simultáneamente, mida el progreso hacia una mejor calidad de vida y fortalecimiento de vínculos con la cultura local y el entorno físico-natural en el marco del desarrollo sustentable. La investigación se plantea para la micro escala, ya que se trata de un estudio de caso, relevándose información primaria mediante observación directa y entrevistas semi-estructuradas, complementada con información secundaria diagnóstica utilizada por INTA. Las características del grupo y su dinámica de funcionamiento bajo el programa Cambio Rural revelan que es posible adoptar un proceso de certificación participativa propuesto para cuatro pilares de la calidad: de Bienes y Servicios, Institucional, Social y Ambiental. El modelo se integra con indicadores de evaluación de desempeño, agrupados en áreas clave para cada una de las dimensiones de la sustentabilidad, que contemplan el paisaje y la gestión de los recursos naturales; el impacto económico de la actividad, la calidad de la oferta y satisfacción del turista; así como las relaciones sociales internas y los vínculos con otros actores del territorio. Principalmente se encontraron fortalezas en la búsqueda de partenariados y debilidades en aspectos de comunicación y promoción. Se considera que este sistema de herramientas de gestión sustentable permitiría superar las dificultades de una certificación individual, pudiendo aplicarse a emprendimientos con otra ubicación geográfica