A nonlinear threshold model for the dependence of extremes of stationary sequences

One of the main implications of the efficient market hypothesis (EMH) is that expected future returns on financial assets are not predictable if investors are risk neutral. In this paper we argue that financial time series offer more information than that this hypothesis seems to supply. In particular we postulate that runs of very large returns can be predictable for small time periods. In order to prove this we propose a TAR(3,1)-GARCH(1,1) model that is able to describe two different types of extreme events: a first type generated by large uncertainty regimes where runs of extremes are not predictable and a second type where extremes come from isolated dread/joy events. This model is new in the literature in nonlinear processes. Its novelty resides on two features of the model that make it different from previous TAR methodologies. The regimes are motivated by the occurrence of extreme values and the threshold variable is defined by the shock affecting the process in the preceding period. In this way this model is able to uncover dependence and clustering of extremes in high as well as in low volatility periods. This model is tested with data from General Motors stocks prices corresponding to two crises that had a substantial impact in financial markets worldwide; the Black Monday of October 1987 and September 11th, 2001. By analyzing the periods around these crises we find evidence of statistical significance of our model and thereby of predictability of extremes for September 11th but not for Black Monday. These findings support the hypotheses of a big negative event producing runs of negative returns in the first case, and of the burst of a worldwide stock market bubble in the second example. JEL classification: C12; C15; C22; C51 Keywords and Phrases: asymmetries, crises, extreme values, hypothesis testing, leverage effect, nonlinearities, threshold models

Saccocoelioides godoyi n.sp. (Haploporidae) and other trematodes parasites of fishes from the Guaiba estuary, RS, Brazil

One hundred and fourteen specimens of eleven different species of freshwater fishes from the Guaiba estuary, were examined for digenetic flukes. Saccocoelioides godoyi n.sp. proposed herein, is closest to S. magniovatus and to S. szidati; S. magniovatus is much smaller with comparably larger eggs and S. szidati has larger hermaphroditic sac and considerably larger testis. Creptotrema creptotrema is referred to a new host; Acanthostomum gnerii, Crepidostomum platense, Eocreadium intermedium (immature form), Parspina argentinensis and Zonocotyle bicaecata are reported. This paper confirms the similatary between the parasites of freshwater fishes from Argentina and Brazil. Measurements and original figures of all species are given.

Redirecció de l'especificitat de les cél·lules T contra epítops del VIH restringit per la HLA-A2 mitjaçant transferència genética

Existeixen creixents evidències què la resposta dels limfòcits T CD8+ alpha beta citotòxics (CTLs) és un element fonamental en la infecció produïda pel VIH. Les CTLs VIH especifiques es consideren molt importants en la reducció de la càrrega viral i en la contenció de la infecció. Encara que la combinació dels antiretrovirals (HAART) ha suposat una millora considerable en la lluita contra el VIH induint una important reducció de la càrrega viral i augmentant el nombre de cèl•lules T CD4+, diverses complicacions han fet ressaltar la necessitat de noves alternatives terapèutiques. Les complicacions inclouen: manca de recuperació d’una resposta immune sòlida contra el VIH, toxicitat a llarg termini de la teràpia i el descobriment que les cèl•lules T CD4+ constitueixen un reservori pel virus. Les noves alternatives controlaran la replicació viral i reconstituiran la immunitat. L’eficàcia de la immunoteràpia cel•lular amb transferència adoptiva de CTLs virals específics s’ha provat en diferents infeccions virals humanes, incloent el VIH. Proposem una modificació de la immunoteràpia adoptiva redirigint l’especificitat de les cèl•lules T contra el VIH mitjançant la transfecció dels gens del TCR. En aquest assaig preclínic, ens aprofitarem de la tecnologia dels animals transgènics per les molècules de HLA, amb la finalitat de generar TCRs d’alta afinitat dirigits contra epitops del VIH restringits per la molècula HLA. Aquests TCRs seran induïts in vivo i seleccionats in vitro. Les cadenes alpha i beta dels TCRs VIH específics procedents de les CTLs seran clonades mitjançant tècniques de biologia molecular. Aquests TCRs VIH específics seran transferits a cèl•lules T CD8+ humanes i la seva especificitat i capacitat citolítica contra cèl•lules diana que presentin antígens de VIH-1 s’estudiaran mitjançant la combinació de diverses tècniques noves (FCC, transfecció mitjançant Nucleoefector). Finalment, una construcció retroviral adient per la seva transducció en cèl•lules T humanes s’establirà amb un TCR òptim seleccionat.

La queratotaxia cercariana en la diferenciacion de sexos de schistosoma mansoni

El número de papilas argirófilas superficiales y su modelo de disposición en el tegumento de las cercarias (quetotaxia) de Schistosoma mansoni nos permitió diferenciar los sexos a nivel del mencionado estadío larvario, mediante los siguientes critérios: - Mayor homogeneidad en las cercarias machos, en cuanto al número total de papilas ventrales y dorsales a nivel de cuerpo y cola cercarianos (C.V. = 4,1%), que en las cercarias hembras (C. V. = 18,3%) (P < 0,001). - Presencia en el 80% de las cercarias machos de cuatro papilas en los cuadrantes "C" ó "D" )inferior-izquierdo e inferior-derecho, respectivamente) ventrales, mientras que dicho caracter sólo está presente en el 40% de las cercarias hembras (P < 0,001). - Diferencia estadísticamente significativa (P < 0,001) entre el número total promedio de papilas corporales centrales de las cercarias hembras (X = 11,9 ± 0,2) y el de las cercarias machos (X = 11,1 ± 0,3). - Diferencia estadísticamente significativa (P < 0,05) para la mayor distancia promedio entre las papilas AIL y AIIL, de cada cercaria, en relación con el sexo (femenino = 25,5 µm ± 0,33; masculino = 27,3 µm ± 0,26).

On the FDI-attracting property of privatizatio

In this paper, we provide an explanation of why privatization may attract foreign investors willing to enter a regional market. Privatization turns the formerly-public firm into a less aggressive competitor since profit-maximizing output is lower than the welfaremaximizing one. The drawback is that social welfare generally decreases. We also investigate tax/subsidy competition for FDI and put forward its potentially positive role. On the one hand, it may reduce the negative impact on welfare of an FDI-attracting privatization. On the other hand, it may prevent a welfare-reducing investment by the foreign firm. This sheds light on the substitute/complementary relationship between the two policies and the two objectives of governments.

Mecanismes de reacció de sistemes catalítics amb èmfasi en carbens de Fischer i quantificació de l'aromaticitat en petites molècules inorgàniques cícliques i planes.

El tema principal del treball és sobre l'estudi teòric de l'estructura i reactivitat en carbens de Fischer de la forma (CO)5Cr=C(X)R (X= OH, NH2, OMe, NMe2 i R= CHCH2 i Ph). Particularment, el nostre interès va sorgir del tipus de reaccions de cicloadicció que donen lloc a la síntesi de productes naturals i fàrmacs de gran valor afegit. Hem estudiat els mecanismes de reacció dels casos més comuns de cicloanul•lació: la reacció de benzanul•lació de Dötz i ciclopentanulacions que es troben en competència amb el primer cas, derivats de l'inserció de acetilè i fenilacetilè. En l'últim pas de les reaccions que comporten la formació d'un sistema de més d'un anell, hi tenim una migració del complex metàl•lic de crom d'un extrem a un altre anomenat com rearranjament haptotròpic. Aleshores, hem investigat sobre els mecanismes de migració haptotròpica de Cr(CO)3 sobre hidrocarburs aromàtics policíclics analitzant l'efecte de la mida i la curvatura del sistema així com la complexació d'un segon fragment metàl•lic a la manera de coordinació als anells. D'una altre banda, vam estudiar l'aromaticitat en 54 cúmuls cíclics de molecules inorgàniques mitjançant metodologia desenvolupada al nostre grup de recerca i altres. Vam proposar la tècnica del scan-NICS com nova mesura quantitativa d'aromaticitat i reportar l'escassa correlació entre els distints índexs d'aromaticitat a la literatura. Finalment, com resultat de col•laboracions en estades de recerca, he desenvolupat propostes de mecanismes de reacció en sistemes catalítics de isonitrils i fosfinetà-amides i en dímers de gassos nobles.

Competition for FDI and profit shifting: On the effects of subsidies and tax breaks

We investigate competition for FDI within a region when a foreign multinational rm can profitably exploit differences in statutory corporate tax rates by shifting taxable pro ts to lower-tax jurisdictions. In such framework we show that targeted tax competition may lead to higher welfare for the region as a whole than lump-sum subsidies when the difference in statutory corporate tax rates and/or their average is high enough. Tax competition is also preferable from an efficiency point of view (overall surplus) by changing the firm's investment decision when pro t shifting motivations induce the rm to locate in the (before tax) least pro table country.

Toxoplasma gondii: a rapid method for the isolation of pure tachyzoites: preliminary characterization of its genome

A rapid and simple technique for the purification of Toxoplasma gondii tachyzoites was developed. Highly purified parasites were obtained from the peritoneal exudates of infected mice by means of two consecutive discontinous sucrose gradients run at low speed (10,000xg, 30 min). Parasites obtained by this method conserved its biological activity. Hybridizations tudies with DNA from healthy mice and from purified tachyzoites preparations demonstrated that Toxoplasma gondii tachyzoites DNA could be obtained with better than 90 per cents purity. Preliminary studies with DNA endonucleases showed the presence in the tachyzoites genome of highly repetitives sequences.

Molecular analysis of yellow fever virus 17DD vaccine strain

The Oswaldo Cruz Foundation produces most of the yellow fever (YF) vaccine prepared world wide. As part of a broader approach to determine the genetic variability in YF l7D seeds and vaccines and its relevance to viral attenuation the 17DD virus was purifed directly from chick embryo homogenates which is the source of virus used for vaccination of millions of people in Brazil and other countries for half a century. Neutralization and hemagglutination tests showed that the purified virus is similar to the original stock. Furthermore, radioimmune precipitation of 35S-methionine-labeled viral proteins using mouse hyperimmune ascitic fluid revealed identical patterns for the purified 17DD virus and the YF l7D-204 strain except for the 17DD E protein which migrated slower on SDS-PAGE. This difference is likely to be due to N-linked glycosylation. Finally, comparison by northern blot nybridization of virion RNAs of purified 17DD with two other strains of YF virus only fenome-sized molecules for all three viruses. These observations suggest that vaccine phenotype is primarily associated with the accumulation of mutations.

Bioinformática: interfaz gráfica para comparación de genomas vía web

El proyecto consiste en un entorno gráfico cuyo fin es el de visualizar, estudiar e interpretar la conservación de código genético existente entre los diferentes genomas. Una interface que permite cargar hasta ocho genomas para ser comparados en detalle, por pares o entre todos ellos a la vez. El gráfico que se muestra en la interfaz, representa los Maximal Unique Matchings entre cada par de genomas, lo que significa coincidencias de la mayor longitud posible no repetidas, en las secuencias de ADN de las especies comparadas. La finalidad es el estudio de las evoluciones que han ido apareciendo entre diferentes organismos o los genes que comparten unas especies con otras.

New approaches for the control and eradication of schistosomiasis in Venezuela

Schistosomiasis in Americawith the exception of Brazil, behaves as a chronic mild disease with few clinical manifestations due to low parasite burden. These features restrict the clinical and parasitological diagnosis. The most commonly used stool examination method, Kato-Katz, becomes intensitive when the majority of individuals excrete less than 100 eggs/g of feces. In view that antigen-detecting techniques have not been able to reveal light infections, the antibody detecting assays remain as a very valuable diagnostic tool for epidemiological surveillance. The Venezuelan Schistosomiasis Research group (CECOICE) has designed a mass chemotherapy strategy based on sero-diagnosis. Since blood sampling is one of the important limitating factors for large seroepidemiological trials we developed a simple capillary technique that sucessfully overcomed most of the limitations of blood drawing. In this sense, ELISA seems to be the most adecuate test for epidemiological studies. Soluble egg Schistosoma mansoni antigen (SEA) has been largely used in Venezuela. The sensitivity ELISA-SEA in our hands is 90% moreover its specific reach 92% when populations from non-endemic areas but heavily infected with other intestinal parasites are analyzed. The Schistosomiasis Control Program is currently carrying out the surveillance of endemic areas using ELISA-SEA as the first screening method, followed by the Circumoval Precipitin test for validation assay. The results with these two serological techniques allowed us to defined the criteria of chemotherapy in populations of the endemic areas. On the search of better diagnostic technique, Alkaline Phosphatase Immunoenzyme Assay (APIA) is being evaluated in field surveys.