Subpopulation triage: How to allocate conservation effort among populations

Threatened species often exist in a small number of isolated subpopulations. Given limitations on conservation spending, managers must choose from strategies that range from managing just one subpopulation and risking all other subpopulations to managing all subpopulations equally and poorly, thereby risking the loss of all subpopulations. We took an economic approach to this problem in an effort to discover a simple rule of thumb for optimally allocating conservation effort among subpopulations. This rule was derived by maximizing the expected number of extant subpopulations remaining given n subpopulations are actually managed. We also derived a spatiotemporally optimized strategy through stochastic dynamic programming. The rule of thumb suggested that more subpopulations should be managed if the budget increases or if the cost of reducing local extinction probabilities decreases. The rule performed well against the exact optimal strategy that was the result of the stochastic dynamic program and much better than other simple strategies (e.g., always manage one extant subpopulation or half of the remaining subpopulation). We applied our approach to the allocation of funds in 2 contrasting case studies: reduction of poaching of Sumatran tigers (Panthera tigris sumatrae) and habitat acquisition for San Joaquin kit foxes (Vulpes macrotis mutica). For our estimated annual budget for Sumatran tiger management, the mean time to extinction was about 32 years. For our estimated annual management budget for kit foxes in the San Joaquin Valley, the mean time to extinction was approximately 24 years. Our framework allows managers to deal with the important question of how to allocate scarce conservation resources among subpopulations of any threatened species. © 2008 Society for Conservation Biology.

Using conservation evidence to guide management

Almost 10 years ago, Pullin and Knight (2001) called for an “effectiveness revolution in conservation” to be enabled by the systematic evaluation of evidence for conservation decision making. Drawing from the model used in clinicalmedicine, they outlined the concept of “evidencebased conservation” in which existing information, or evidence, from relevant and rigorous research is compiled and analyzed in a systematic manner to inform conservation actions (Cochrane 1972). The promise of evidencebased conservation has generated significant interest; 25 systematic reviews have been completed since 2004 and dozens are underway (Collaboration for Environmental Evidence 2010). However we argue that an “effectiveness revolution” (Pullin & Knight 2001) in conservation will not be possible unless mechanisms are devised for incorporating the growing evidence base into decision frameworks. For conservation professionals to accomplish the missions of their organizations they must demonstrate that their actions actually achieve objectives (Pullin & Knight 2009). Systematic evaluation provides a framework for objectively evaluating the effectiveness of actions. To leverage the benefit of these evaluations, we need resource-allocation systems that are responsive to their outcomes. The allocation of conservation resources is often the product of institutional priorities or reliance on intuition (Sutherland et al. 2004; Pullin & Knight 2005; Cook et al. 2010). We highlight the NICE technologyappraisal process because it provides an example of formal integration of systematic-evidence evaluation with provision of guidance for action. The transparent process, which clearly delineates costs and benefits of each alternative action, could also provide the public with new insight into the environmental effects of different decisions. This insight could stimulate a wider discussion about investment in conservation by demonstrating how changes in funding might affect the probability of achieving conservation objectives. ©2010 Society for Conservation Biology

Ecosystem management along ephemeral rivers: Trading off socio-economic water supply and vegetation conservation under flood regime uncertainty

In ecosystems driven by water availability, plant community dynamics depend on complex interactions between vegetation, hydrology, and human water resources use. Along ephemeral rivers—where water availability is erratic—vegetation and people are particularly vulnerable to changes in each other's water use. Sensible management requires that water supply be maintained for people, while preserving ecosystem health. Meeting such requirements is challenging because of the unpredictable water availability. We applied information gap decision theory to an ecohydrological system model of the Kuiseb River environment in Namibia. Our aim was to identify the robustness of ecosystem and water management strategies to uncertainties in future flood regimes along ephemeral rivers. We evaluated the trade-offs between alternative performance criteria and their robustness to uncertainty to account for both (i) human demands for water supply and (ii) reducing the risk of species extinction caused by water mining. Increasing uncertainty of flood regime parameters reduced the performance under both objectives. Remarkably, the ecological objective (species coexistence) was more sensitive to uncertainty than the water supply objective. However, within each objective, the relative performance of different management strategies was insensitive to uncertainty. The ‘best’ management strategy was one that is tuned to the competitive species interactions in the Kuiseb environment. It regulates the biomass of the strongest competitor and, thus, at the same time decreases transpiration, thereby increasing groundwater storage and reducing pressure on less dominant species. This robust mutually acceptable strategy enables species persistence without markedly reducing the water supply for humans. This study emphasises the utility of ecohydrological models for resource management of water-controlled ecosystems. Although trade-offs were identified between alternative performance criteria and their robustness to uncertain future flood regimes, management strategies were identified that help to secure an ecologically sustainable water supply.

Efficiency of parallelisation of genetic algorithms in the data analysis context

Most real-life data analysis problems are difficult to solve using exact methods, due to the size of the datasets and the nature of the underlying mechanisms of the system under investigation. As datasets grow even larger, finding the balance between the quality of the approximation and the computing time of the heuristic becomes non-trivial. One solution is to consider parallel methods, and to use the increased computational power to perform a deeper exploration of the solution space in a similar time. It is, however, difficult to estimate a priori whether parallelisation will provide the expected improvement. In this paper we consider a well-known method, genetic algorithms, and evaluate on two distinct problem types the behaviour of the classic and parallel implementations.

Genetic characterisation and structural analysis of the O-specific polysaccharide of Yersinia pseudotuberculosis serotype O:1c

Many, but not all, of the current 21 serotypes of Yersinia pseudotuberculosis have been investigated with regard to the chemical structures of their O-specific polysaccharide (OPS) and the genetic basis of their biosynthesis. Completion of the genetics and structures of the remaining serotypes will enhance our understanding of the emerging relationship between genetics and structures within this species. Here, we present a structural and genetic analysis of the Y. pseudotuberculosis serotype O:1c OPS. Our results showed that this OPS has the same backbone as Y. pseudotuberculosis O:2b, but with a 3,6-dideoxy-D-ribo-hexofuranose (paratofuranose, Parf) side-branch instead of a 3,6-dideoxy-D-xylo-hexopyranose (abequopyranose, Abep). The 3'-end of the gene cluster is the same as for O:2b and has the genes for synthesis of the backbone and for processing the completed repeat unit. The 5'-end of the cluster consists of the same genes as O:1b for synthesis of Parf and a related gene for its transfer to the repeating unit backbone.

Genetic risk score analysis indicates migraine with and without comorbid depression are genetically different disorders

Migraine and major depressive disorder (MDD) are comorbid, moderately heritable and to some extent influenced by the same genes. In a previous paper, we suggested the possibility of causality (one trait causing the other) underlying this comorbidity. We present a new application of polygenic (genetic risk) score analysis to investigate the mechanisms underlying the genetic overlap of migraine and MDD. Genetic risk scores were constructed based on data from two discovery samples in which genome-wide association analyses (GWA) were performed for migraine and MDD, respectively. The Australian Twin Migraine GWA study (N = 6,350) included 2,825 migraine cases and 3,525 controls, 805 of whom met the diagnostic criteria for MDD. The RADIANT GWA study (N = 3,230) included 1,636 MDD cases and 1,594 controls. Genetic risk scores for migraine and for MDD were used to predict pure and comorbid forms of migraine and MDD in an independent Dutch target sample (NTR-NESDA, N = 2,966), which included 1,476 MDD cases and 1,058 migraine cases (723 of these individuals had both disorders concurrently). The observed patterns of prediction suggest that the 'pure' forms of migraine and MDD are genetically distinct disorders. The subgroup of individuals with comorbid MDD and migraine were genetically most similar to MDD patients. These results indicate that in at least a subset of migraine patients with MDD, migraine may be a symptom or consequence of MDD. © 2013 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.

The future for genetic studies in reproduction

Genetic factors contribute to risk of many common diseases affecting reproduction and fertility. In recent years, methods for genome-wide association studies(GWAS) have revolutionized gene discovery forcommontraits and diseases. Results of GWAS are documented in the Catalog of Published Genome-Wide Association Studies at the National Human Genome Research Institute and report over 70 publications for 32 traits and diseases associated with reproduction. These include endometriosis, uterine fibroids, age at menarche and age at menopause. Results that pass appropriate stringent levels of significance are generally well replicated in independent studies. Examples of genetic variation affecting twinning rate, infertility, endometriosis and age at menarche demonstrate that the spectrum of disease-related variants for reproductive traits is similar to most other common diseases.GWAS 'hits' provide novel insights into biological pathways and the translational value of these studies lies in discovery of novel gene targets for biomarkers, drug development and greater understanding of environmental factors contributing to disease risk. Results also show that genetic data can help define sub-types of disease and co-morbidity with other traits and diseases. To date, many studies on reproductive traits have used relatively small samples. Future genetic marker studies in large samples with detailed phenotypic and clinical information will yield new insights into disease risk, disease classification and co-morbidity for many diseases associated with reproduction and infertility.

Genetic variants underlying risk of endometriosis: Insights from meta-analysis of eight genome-wide association and replication datasets

BACKGROUND Endometriosis is a heritable common gynaecological condition influenced by multiple genetic and environmental factors. Genome-wide association studies (GWASs) have proved successful in identifying common genetic variants of moderate effects for various complex diseases. To date, eight GWAS and replication studies from multiple populations have been published on endometriosis. In this review, we investigate the consistency and heterogeneity of the results across all the studies and their implications for an improved understanding of the aetiology of the condition. METHODS Meta-analyses were conducted on four GWASs and four replication studies including a total of 11 506 cases and 32 678 controls, and on the subset of studies that investigated associations for revised American Fertility Society (rAFS) Stage III/IV including 2859 cases. The datasets included 9039 cases and 27 343 controls of European (Australia, Belgium, Italy, UK, USA) and 2467 cases and 5335 controls of Japanese ancestry. Fixed and Han and Elkin random-effects models, and heterogeneity statistics (Cochran's Q test), were used to investigate the evidence of the nine reported genome-wide significant loci across datasets and populations. RESULTS Meta-analysis showed that seven out of nine loci had consistent directions of effect across studies and populations, and six out of nine remained genome-wide significant (P < 5 × 10(-8)), including rs12700667 on 7p15.2 (P = 1.6 × 10(-9)), rs7521902 near WNT4 (P = 1.8 × 10(-15)), rs10859871 near VEZT (P = 4.7 × 10(-15)), rs1537377 near CDKN2B-AS1 (P = 1.5 × 10(-8)), rs7739264 near ID4 (P = 6.2 × 10(-10)) and rs13394619 in GREB1 (P = 4.5 × 10(-8)). In addition to the six loci, two showed borderline genome-wide significant associations with Stage III/IV endometriosis, including rs1250248 in FN1 (P = 8 × 10(-8)) and rs4141819 on 2p14 (P = 9.2 × 10(-8)). Two independent inter-genic loci, rs4141819 and rs6734792 on chromosome 2, showed significant evidence of heterogeneity across datasets (P < 0.005). Eight of the nine loci had stronger effect sizes among Stage III/IV cases, implying that they are likely to be implicated in the development of moderate to severe, or ovarian, disease. While three out of nine loci were inter-genic, the remaining were in or near genes with known functions of biological relevance to endometriosis, varying from roles in developmental pathways to cellular growth/carcinogenesis. CONCLUSIONS Our meta-analysis shows remarkable consistency in endometriosis GWAS results across studies, with little evidence of population-based heterogeneity. They also show that the phenotypic classifications used in GWAS to date have been limited. Stronger associations with Stage III/IV disease observed for most loci emphasize the importance for future studies to include detailed sub-phenotype information. Functional studies in relevant tissues are needed to understand the effect of the variants on downstream biological pathways.

Different approaches of applying single-objective binary genetic algorithm on the wind farm design

This paper discusses three different ways of applying the single-objective binary genetic algorithm into designing the wind farm. The introduction of different applications is through altering the binary encoding methods in GA codes. The first encoding method is the traditional one with fixed wind turbine positions. The second involves varying the initial positions from results of the first method, and it is achieved by using binary digits to represent the coordination of wind turbine on X or Y axis. The third is the mixing of the first encoding method with another one, which is by adding four more binary digits to represent one of the unavailable plots. The goal of this paper is to demonstrate how the single-objective binary algorithm can be applied and how the wind turbines are distributed under various conditions with best fitness. The main emphasis of discussion is focused on the scenario of wind direction varying from 0° to 45°. Results show that choosing the appropriate position of wind turbines is more significant than choosing the wind turbine numbers, considering that the former has a bigger influence on the whole farm fitness than the latter. And the farm has best performance of fitness values, farm efficiency, and total power with the direction between 20°to 30°.

Molecular genetic investigation of mitochondrial dysfunction in relation to migraine susceptibility

The aim of this research was to assess the role of genetic variation in mitochondrial function and how this relates to migraine pathophysiology. Using our unique Norfolk Island population, a custom in-house next generation sequencing methodology was developed. This data for the first time showed that there is a molecular genetic link between mitochondrial dysfunction and migraine susceptibility. This work has provided the foundation for further studies aimed at utilising the identified markers in improved migraine diagnostic and therapeutic strategies.

A practical guide to terminology for kimberlite facies: A systematic progression from descriptive to genetic, including a pocket guide

Kimberlite terminology remains problematic because both descriptive and genetic terms are mixed together in most existing terminology schemes. In addition, many terms used in existing kimberlite terminology schemes are not used in mainstream volcanology, even though kimberlite bodies are commonly the remains of kimberlite volcanic vents and edifices. We build on our own recently published approach to kimberlite facies terminology, involving a systematic progression from descriptive to genetic. The scheme can be used for both coherent kimberlite (i.e. kimberlite that was emplaced without undergoing any fragmentation processes and therefore preserving coherent igneous textures) and fragmental kimberlites. The approach involves documentation of components, textures and assessing the degree and effects of alteration on both components and original emplacement textures. This allows a purely descriptive composite component, textural and compositional petrological rock or deposit name to be constructed first, free of any biases about emplacement setting and processes. Then important facies features such as depositional structures, contact relationships and setting are assessed, leading to a composite descriptive and genetic name for the facies or rock unit that summarises key descriptive characteristics, emplacement processes and setting. Flow charts summarising the key steps in developing a progressive descriptive to genetic terminology are provided for both coherent and fragmental facies/deposits/rock units. These can be copied and used in the field, or in conjunction with field (e.g. drill core observations) and petrographic data. Because the approach depends heavily on field scale observations, characteristics and process interpretations, only the first descriptive part is appropriate where only petrographic observations are being made. Where field scale observations are available the progression from developing descriptive to interpretative terminology can be used, especially where some petrographic data also becomes available.

A new approach to kimberlite facies terminology using a revised general approach to the nomenclature of all volcanic rocks and deposits: Descriptive to genetic

Although kimberlite pipes/bodies are usually the remains of volcanic vents, in-vent deposits, and subvolcanic intrusions, the terminology used for kimberlite rocks has largely developed independently of that used in mainstream volcanology. Existing kimberlite terminology is not descriptive and includes terms that are rarely used, used differently, and even not used at all in mainstream volcanology. In addition, kimberlite bodies are altered to varying degrees, making application of genetic terminology difficult because original components and depositional textures are commonly masked by alteration. This paper recommends an approach to the terminology for kimberlite rocks that is consistent with usage for other volcanic successions. In modern terrains the eruption and emplacement origins of deposits can often be readily deduced, but this is often not the case for old, variably altered and deformed rock successions. A staged approach is required whereby descriptive terminology is developed first, followed by application of genetic terminology once all features, including the effects of alteration on original texture and depositional features, together with contact relationships and setting, have been evaluated. Because many volcanic successions consist of both primary volcanic deposits as well as volcanic sediments, terminology must account for both possibilities.

Australia's Biodiversity Conservation Strategy 2010-2020 Submission to the National Biodiversity Strategy Review Taskforce

This submission focuses on “Priority for Change 3: Knowledge for all” and “Priority for Change 5: Involving Indigenous Australians”. Our particular interest lies with ensuring that Indigenous knowledge holders are engaged with in a manner that recognises their prior rights over their own knowledge and intellectual property. As the Preamble of the recently endorsed United Nations Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples states, we need to; “Recognis[e] that respect for Indigenous Knowledge, cultures and traditional practises contributes to sustainable and equitable development and proper management of the environment”.