A comprehensive study of bankruptcy prediction: Accounting ratios, market variables, and microstructure

Bankruptcy prediction has been a fruitful area of research. Univariate analysis and discriminant analysis were the first methodologies used. While they perform relatively well at correctly classifying bankrupt and nonbankrupt firms, their predictive ability has come into question over time. Univariate analysis lacks the big picture that financial distress entails. Multivariate discriminant analysis requires stringent assumptions that are violated when dealing with accounting ratios and market variables. This has led to the use of more complex models such as neural networks. While the accuracy of the predictions has improved with the use of more technical models, there is still an important point missing. Accounting ratios are the usual discriminating variables used in bankruptcy prediction. However, accounting ratios are backward-looking variables. At best, they are a current snapshot of the firm. Market variables are forward-looking variables. They are determined by discounting future outcomes. Microstructure variables, such as the bid-ask spread, also contain important information. Insiders are privy to more information that the retail investor, so if any financial distress is looming, the insiders should know before the general public. Therefore, any model in bankruptcy prediction should include market and microstructure variables. That is the focus of this dissertation. The traditional models and the newer, more technical models were tested and compared to the previous literature by employing accounting ratios, market variables, and microstructure variables. Our findings suggest that the more technical models are preferable, and that a mix of accounting and market variables are best at correctly classifying and predicting bankrupt firms. Multi-layer perceptron appears to be the most accurate model following the results. The set of best discriminating variables includes price, standard deviation of price, the bid-ask spread, net income to sale, working capital to total assets, and current liabilities to total assets.

Sustainable rural development through alternative economic networks: Redefining relations in the commodity chain for export vegetables in western Guatemala

The current research considers the capacity of a local organic food system for producer and consumer empowerment and sustainable development outcomes in western Guatemala. Many have argued that the forging of local agricultural networks linking farmers, consumers, and supporting institutions is an effective tool for challenging the negative economic, environmental, and sociopolitical impacts associated with industrial models of global food production. But does this work in the context of agrarian development in the developing world? Despite the fact that there is extensive literature concerning local food system formation in the global north, there remains a paucity of research covering how the principles of local food systems are being integrated into agricultural development projects in developing countries. My work critically examines claims to agricultural sustainability and actor empowerment in a local organic food system built around non-traditional agricultural crops in western Guatemala. Employing a mixed methods research design involving twenty months of participant observation, in-depth interviewing, surveying, and a self-administered questionnaire, the project evaluates the sustainability of this NGO-led development initiative and local food movement along several dimensions. Focusing on the unique economic and social networks of actors and institutions at each stage of the commodity chain, this research shows how the growth of an alternative food system continues to be shaped by context specific processes, politics, and structures of conventional food systems. Further, it shows how the specifics of context also produce new relationships of cooperation and power in the development process. Results indicate that structures surrounding agrarian development in the Guatemalan context give rise to a hybrid form of development that at the same time contests and reinforces conventional models of food production and consumption. Therefore, participation entails a host of compromises and tradeoffs that result in mixed successes and setbacks, as actors attempt to refashion conventional commodity chains through local food system formation.^

Kosher Airline Food: A Logistical Challenge

Providing meals to passengers on aircrafts requires a complex logistical system if it is to be done sucessfully. Variations to that system are required if special meals, such as kosher ones, are to be provided since it entails unique system challenges. The authors discuss service requirements, the challenges they pose to the inflight meal service logistical system, and some of the ways in which these challenges are met.

Restructuring In The Hospitality Industry

In her dialogue entitled - Restructuring in the Hospitality Industry - Elisa S. Moncarz, Associate Professor, the School of Hospitality Management at Florida International University, intends for you to know the following: “Recent years have seen a proliferation of restructurings of major American corporations creating an extremely important issue that has affected U.S. business. This article discusses restructuring issues in the hospitality industry, focusing attention on its causes and motivations, as well as on its benefits and perils. The author considers the impact of restructuring on investors and management while examining recent restructurings involving hospitality firms.” In defining the concept of restructuring, Associate Professor Moncarz informs you, “Restructuring entails the implementation of fundamental and comprehensive modification of a company's operational and/or financial structure.” “It has, indeed, become fashionable to take a company apart and put it back together in a different form,” the author says. Additionally, Moncarz refers to a Wall Street Journal study, dated August 1985, which reveals that nearly half the large American corporations were, or were soon to be restructured in the 1984/85 time frame. There are several distinct types of restructurings and the author wants you to be aware of some of them. “…threats of takeover attempts, the larger part of all restructuring have been initiated willingly in order to expand or divest a company's line of business (i.e., operational restructurings) or redirect its finances (i.e., financial restructurings),” the author reveals. “Two principal types of operational restructurings are mergers and acquisitions [M&A], and divestitures [disposing of unwanted units or assets],” Moncarz further defines the concepts of expansion and divestiture. The author explains several types of financial restructuring sketches used in the hospitality industry, including stock re-purchasing, debt issuances and redemptions, swapping debt for equity, and effective theories of realigning debt through extending loans and/or revising terms. To expand their businesses, Moncarz makes anecdotal reference to several major food and beverage corporations that have successfully employed operational restructuring principles. The author wades into the shallow end of the hostile takeover pool by explaining some of the corporate restructuring concepts used to repel that aggressive technique. Walt Disney Company completely redesigned their entire upper level management structure in a successful effort to thwart a hostile takeover bid by corporate raider Saul P. Steinberg, Moncarz informs. To close, the author touches on leveraged buyouts [LBOs], and stock repurchases to divest unwanted divisions and immobilize hostile takeover attempts. A lengthy table of - Selected Restructurings in the Hospitality Industry [1982 to date of article] – is also included.

Evaluating the Effectiveness of Discrete Trial Procedures for Teaching Receptive Discrimination to Children with Autism Spectrum Disorders

Research has found that children with autism spectrum disorders (ASD) show significant deficits in receptive language skills (Wiesmer, Lord, & Esler, 2010). One of the primary goals of applied behavior analytic intervention is to improve the communication skills of children with autism by teaching receptive discriminations. Both receptive discriminations and receptive language entail matching spoken words with corresponding objects, symbols (e.g., pictures or words), actions, people, and so on (Green, 2001). In order to develop receptive language skills, children with autism often undergo discrimination training within the context of discrete trial training. This training entails teaching the learner how to respond differentially to different stimuli (Green, 2001). It is through discrimination training that individuals with autism learn and develop language (Lovaas, 2003). The present study compares three procedures for teaching receptive discriminations: (1) simple/conditional (Procedure A), (2) conditional only (Procedure B), and (3) conditional discrimination of two target cards (Procedure C). Six children, ranging in age from 2-years-old to 5-years-old, with an autism diagnosis were taught how to receptively discriminate nine sets of stimuli. Results suggest that the extra training steps included in the simple/conditional and conditional only procedures may not be necessary to teach children with autism how to receptively discriminate. For all participants, Procedure C appeared to be the most efficient and effective procedure for teaching young children with autism receptive discriminations. Response maintenance and generalization probes conducted one-month following the end of training indicate that even though Procedure C resulted in less training sessions overall, no one procedure resulted in better maintenance and generalization than the others. In other words, more training sessions, as evident with the simple/conditional and conditional only procedures, did not facilitate participants’ ability to accurately respond or generalize one-month following training. The present study contributes to the literature on what is the most efficient and effective way to teach receptive discrimination during discrete trial training to children with ASD. These findings are critical as research shows that receptive language skills are predictive of better outcomes and adaptive behaviors in the future.

Da arenga ao debate: o aprimoramento da competência argumentativa por estudantes do ensino médio

In order to understand the factors involved in the improvement process of argumentative competence by students of 2nd year of high school, we undertook a qualitative approach research and interventional nature, during which we adopted the conduct of participant observation in a school belonging to the state schools of Rio Grande do Norte, located on the outskirts of the city of Natal. The analyzed corpus consisted in the interim intervention and entails the answers to a semi-structured questionnaire, fourteen opinion articles and three regrados debates, produced by the students, in addition to video recordings of ten sessions and personal notes pertaining to another six, totaling sixteen sessions observed during the school year 2014. As the most important bibliographical references we study skills and reasoning from the perspective of discursive social interactionism. Analyzing the data we loan the principle of categorization, opting for critical-descriptive presentation and were revealed to us, via the classified evidences, that among the factors involved in the study process, it appears with more relevance to set up an effective intellectual community, which meets in constant interaction subjects, which alternate assuming the conditions of speakers and audience. The constitution of this community depends largely on the teaching mediation and is indispensable to the (re)design of the studied competence, in interactions with her the subjects afforded learn and develop their competence, reshaping the limits of their zone of proximal development.

Da arenga ao debate: o aprimoramento da competência argumentativa por estudantes do ensino médio

In order to understand the factors involved in the improvement process of argumentative competence by students of 2nd year of high school, we undertook a qualitative approach research and interventional nature, during which we adopted the conduct of participant observation in a school belonging to the state schools of Rio Grande do Norte, located on the outskirts of the city of Natal. The analyzed corpus consisted in the interim intervention and entails the answers to a semi-structured questionnaire, fourteen opinion articles and three regrados debates, produced by the students, in addition to video recordings of ten sessions and personal notes pertaining to another six, totaling sixteen sessions observed during the school year 2014. As the most important bibliographical references we study skills and reasoning from the perspective of discursive social interactionism. Analyzing the data we loan the principle of categorization, opting for critical-descriptive presentation and were revealed to us, via the classified evidences, that among the factors involved in the study process, it appears with more relevance to set up an effective intellectual community, which meets in constant interaction subjects, which alternate assuming the conditions of speakers and audience. The constitution of this community depends largely on the teaching mediation and is indispensable to the (re)design of the studied competence, in interactions with her the subjects afforded learn and develop their competence, reshaping the limits of their zone of proximal development.

O conceito de motivação em dizeres de professores de língua inglesa

This work aimed at analyzing the speeches constructed about motivation by English teachers who teach at public state schools in the interior of Minas Gerais. We aimed at delineating the concept of subject underlying the subjects’ notion of motivation and identifying the role that the English teacher attributes to himself and to the student when he/she enunciates on motivational issues, problematizing the possible consequences of these issues for some English teachers while working in public schools. In order to do so, our investigation made use of theoretical assumptions from Applied Linguistics and Discourse Analysis. The theoretical fundamentation deriving from Bakhtin Circle as well as from Michel Pecheux’s theoretical basis were also very relevant for this research. The intersection of these studying fields entails a theoretical construction that considers the voices of those who live the social practice (MOITA LOPES, 2006), which allows one to see the subjects through their heterogeneity, fluidity and fragmentation. Moreover, it generates knowledge about language in its political, ideological, social and historical aspects. AREDA (SERRANI, 1998) was used as a theoretical and methodological framework for data collection. In our analysis, we considered the voices and the conditions of production that constitute 5 English teachers and, from some selected speeches extracted from their discursive production, some notions as intra and interdiscourse, discursive resonance, discursive memory, among others, can be seen interwoven. We hypothesize that the production of meaning deriving from these English teachers comes from a cleavage between the interdiscursivity about motivation and their position in relation to the English language. Some of these teachers’ discursive inscriptions were delineated as they follow: i) the silenced motivation, in which the teachers come up with several voices, repeating what that has already been said about motivation through silence by excess; also, through an inscription in a process of anomy, the English teachers silence motivation, as they come up with other sayings, in an anomic order, denying their identification with their mother tongue and culture because of a desire to learn the foreign language and culture; ii) the motivation in/from/ by others that resounds, in the way the teachers speak, a relation of alterity on what, in/from desire of other relations (colleagues, students, teaching materials, media, etc.), other forms and alternatives are established as a guarantee of students’ motivation; the teachers are also inscripted in in-service practice training as a space of educational development, because they imagine that the experience of the in-service practice alone, which excludes the educational instruction from the Languages course in which they graduated/were graduating at, taught them how to motivate the students; iii) the motivation as a will of power/knowledge, which means there seems to be teachers’ inscription in the relationship between power and knowledge (Foucault, 1996), disconsidering the conflicts that constitute the English classroom to say that there is a control of the English teaching and learning process and, as a result, they also sustain that they hold control over how to motivate; furthermore, the presence of a resonant voice, whose effect is given by an inscription on the (illusion of) completeness can be seen, because the English teachers believe that while motivating their students, this motivation will provide them with all the missing elements, which would mean that when they motivate students, they would be able to fulfill all the gaps in their learning process.

‘EXISTENCE AS RESISTANCE’: UNDERSTANDINGS OF IDENTITY, PLACE & BELONGING FOR YOUNG PALESTINIANS

In this thesis, I offer an exploration of what it means to be Palestinian, and constructions of identity, belonging and community, through drawing on the experiences of younger generations of Palestinians who have not lived in Palestine. This project seeks to investigate how understanding of our own individual, familial and community’s history plays in shaping our own understandings of identity, place, belonging and indigeneity, as a younger generation of Palestinians now living and studying in the diaspora. In particular, this project examined how the process of remembering and sharing memories in community act as a form of resistance to 68 years of settler colonial violence and erasure of Palestinian land and peoples, asking what our responsibilities this therefore entails from each and every one of us.

Everyday Enchantments and Secular Magic in Montréal

In this thesis I argue that dominant ways of imagining modernity constitute a modern imaginary that carries with it particular expectations concerning modern places, spaces, emotions, and affects as well as expectations concerning the place of religion and enchantment in the modern world. I argue that this modern imaginary and the expectations it entails works to conceal and trivialize supra-rational beliefs and behaviours in scholarship but also in the lives of individuals. I focus on one particular subset of the supra-rational beliefs and behaviours that modern imaginary conceals and trivializes, namely beliefs and behaviours associated with lucky and protective objects. I also focus on the ways the modern imaginary conceals the presence and prevalence of these objects and the beliefs and behaviours they entail in one particular context, namely Montréal, Québec. I argue that these supra-rational beliefs and behaviours constitute a subjunctive mode for understanding and experiencing daily life and describe how the modern imaginary works to discredit this subjunctive register. Finally, I argue that scholars must begin to recognize and examine this subjunctive mode and the playful engagement with half-belief it involves.

On the Economics and Politics of Mobility

Exit, Voice and Political Change: Evidence from Swedish Mass Migration to the United States. During the Age of Mass Migration, 30 million Europeans immigrated to the United States. We study the long-term political effects of this large-scale migration episode on origin communities using detailed historical data from Sweden. To instrument for emigration, we exploit severe local frost shocks that sparked an initial wave of emigration, interacted with within-country travel costs. Because Swedish emigration was highly path dependent, the initial shocks strongly predict total emigration over 50 years. Our estimates show that emigration substantially increased membership in local labor organizations, the strongest political opposition groups at the time. Furthermore, emigration caused greater strike participation, and mobilized voter turnout and support for left-wing parties in national elections. Emigration also had formal political effects, as measured by welfare expenditures and adoption of inclusive political institutions. Together, our findings indicate that large-scale emigration can achieve long-lasting effects on the political equilibrium in origin communities. Mass Migration and Technological Innovation at the Origin. This essay studies the effects of migration on technological innovations in origin communities. Using historical data from Sweden, we find that large-scale emigration caused a long-run increase in patent innovations in origin municipalities. Our IV estimate shows that a ten percent increase in emigration entails a 7 percent increase in a muncipality’s number of patents. Weighting patents by a measure of their economic value, the positive effects are further increased. Discussing possible mechanisms, we suggest that low skilled labor scarcity may be an explanation for these results.  Richer (and Holier) Than Thou? The Impact of Relative Income Improvements on Demand for Redistribution. We use a tailor-made survey on a Swedish sample to investigate how individuals' relative income affects their demand for redistribution. We first document that a majority misperceive their position in the income distribution and believe that they are poorer, relative to others, than they actually are. We then inform a subsample about their true relative income, and find that individuals who are richer than they initially thought demand less redistribution. This result is driven by individuals with prior right-of-center political preferences who view taxes as distortive and believe that effort, rather than luck, drives individual economic success. Wealth, home ownership and mobility. Rent controls on housing have long been thought to reduce labor mobility and allocative efficiency. We study a policy that allowed renters to purchase their rent-controlled apartments at below market prices, and examine the effects of home ownership and wealth on mobility. Treated individuals have a substantially higher likelihood of moving to a new home in a given year. The effect corresponds to a 30 percent increase from the control group mean. The size of the wealth shock predicts lower mobility, while the positive average effect can be explained by tenants switching from the previous rent-controlled system to market-priced condominiums. By contrast, we do not find that the increase in residential mobility leads to a greater probability of moving to a new place of work.

Perceived Work-related Factors and Turnover Intention : A Case Study of a South Korean Construction Company

Purpose – Employee turnover entails considerable costs and is a major problem for the construction industry. By creating an extensive framework, this study aims to examine whether perceived work-related factors affect turnover intention in South Korean construction companies. Research design – The paper is based on the results of a questionnaire of 136 employees that was conducted and provided by a Korean construction company. Research hypotheses were tested via correlation analyses. The most influencing work-related factors, as well as differences among job levels, were determined by multiple regression analyses. Findings – Communication, immediate leaders, organizational commitment, and organizational pride substantially affect turnover intentions. All of these factors can be considered as relational factors. The most influencing factors differ among job levels. Discussion/practical implications – Immediate leaders should be aware of their role in retaining employees and enhance communication, organizational commitment and pride. This study shows how the importance of certain variables differs for groups of employees. Theoretical implications/limitations– This study is based on a sample of employees from a Korean construction company. Therefore, the generalizability of the findings has to be tested. Future research should test the proposed framework with other factors or resources. Originality/value – This study shed light on the turnover subject in the South Korean construction industry. It shows that different factors can influence turnover intention among job levels. A framework was created, which is based on 16 work-related factors including organizational factors, HRM practices and job attitudes.

Perceived Work-related Factors and Turnover Intention : - A Case Study of a South Korean Construction Company

Purpose – Employee turnover entails considerable costs and is a major problem for the construction industry. By creating an extensive framework, this study aims to examine whether perceived work-related factors affect turnover intention in South Korean construction companies. Research design – The paper is based on the results of a questionnaire of 136 employees that was conducted and provided by a Korean construction company. Research hypotheses were tested via correlation analyses. The most influencing work-related factors, as well as differences among job levels, were determined by multiple regression analyses. Findings – Communication, immediate leaders, organizational commitment, and organizational pride substantially affect turnover intentions. All of these factors can be considered as relational factors. The most influencing factors differ among job levels. Discussion/practical implications – Immediate leaders should be aware of their role in retaining employees and enhance communication, organizational commitment and pride. This study shows how the importance of certain variables differs for groups of employees. Theoretical implications/limitations– This study is based on a sample of employees from a Korean construction company. Therefore, the generalizability of the findings has to be tested. Future research should test the proposed framework with other factors or resources. Originality/value – This study shed light on the turnover subject in the South Korean construction industry. It shows that different factors can influence turnover intention among job levels. A framework was created, which is based on 16 work-related factors including organizational factors, HRM practices and job attitudes.

Upper Secondary Students’ Beliefs About Learning English as a Foreign Language : A contrast between the students’ beliefs and the Swedish curriculum

Learning English as a foreign language (EFL) entails different factors. Language learners use different strategies in order to make their language acquisition successful. Motivation and self-regulated learning are other factors that influence how successful the EFL learner is. This paper aims to analyze the beliefs of upper secondary students in a Swedish school about learning EFL, as well as how their beliefs relate to what is specified in the Swedish curriculum. An analysis of the differences between students’ beliefs and what is stated in the curriculum was done. A survey was conducted on a total of 54 students who were enrolled in the social sciences program. The results showed that students believed that motivation and self-regulated learning were important factors for a successful learning. For them, the language skill of reception is more important than production, which does not correspond with what it is stated in the national curriculum. First and second year students’ beliefs were similar in most of the cases, but not all of them.

Diseño optimizado de alimentación de servicios auxiliares de un parque eólico off-shore en aguas profundas

[ES]La energía eólica marina supone respecto a la energía eólica en tierra una mayor generación de energía, debido a condiciones menos turbulentas del viento y más constantes que permiten mayores diámetros de palas y por tanto mayor generación de energía. En este trabajo se estudia la eficiencia energética en los sistemas auxiliares de una plataforma offshore con aerogenerador para obtención de energía eólica, y se aplican medidas de ahorro y racionalización energética. El ahorro de energía hará más viable la instalación de un sistema de posicionamiento dinámico en las plataformas, en el trabajo se estudia esta posibilidad, de manera que se asegure un mejor recurso, y la posibilidad de instalación sin restricciones legislativas y de profundidades excesivas.