Regulatory ambivalence and the limitations of pharmaceutical policy in Spain

Broadly speaking, pharmaceutical policy in Spain has been unable to control either the price or thevolume of drugs prescribed. Limited attempts have been made to bring together the regulation of thepharmaceutical market and policies, in pursuit of the desired goals of efficiency and quality. Thispaper assesses the regulation of the Spanish pharmaceutical market over the last two decades byexamining regulation and policy and the available empirical evidence on their appreciable effects,and presents recommendations for policy design. Our findings suggest that policies aiming to improveefficiency and quality have not managed to contain costs, while cost-effectiveness is still overlooked.We argue that future policies should encourage broader participation in the decision-making processesand promote a higher degree of competition, especially from generic drugs.

Competitive location and pricing on networks

In this paper we consider a location and pricing model for a retail firm that wants to enter a spatial market where a competitor firm is already operating as a monopoly with several outlets. The entering firms seeks to determine the optimal uniform mill price and its servers' locations that maximizes profits given the reaction in price of the competitor firm to its entrance. A tabu search procedure is presentedto solve the model together with computational experience.

Implicit collusion on wide spreads

Recent empirical findings suggest that spreads quoted in dealershipmarkets might be uncompetitive. This paper analyzes theoretically if pricecompetition between risk--averse market--makers leaves room for implicitcollusive behavior. We compare the spread and risk--sharing efficiencyarising in several market structures differing in terms of i) the priorityrule followed in case of ties, and ii) the type of schedules market makersmay use, namely: general schedules, linear schedules, or limit orders. Ingeneral, competitive pricing does not arise in equilibrium, and there isa conflict between risk sharing efficiency and the tightness of the spread.This conflict can be mitigated by an appropriate market structure design.The limit order market is the only market structure in which the competitiveequilibrium is the unique equilibrium.

Value and depreciation of mineral resources over the very long run: An empirical contrast of different methods

The paper contrasts empirically the results of alternative methods for estimating thevalue and the depreciation of mineral resources. The historical data of Mexico andVenezuela, covering the period 1920s-1980s, is used to contrast the results of severalmethods. These are the present value, the net price method, the user cost method andthe imputed income method. The paper establishes that the net price and the user costare not competing methods as such, but alternative adjustments to different scenariosof closed and open economies. The results prove that the biases of the methods, ascommonly described in the theoretical literature, only hold under the most restrictedscenario of constant rents over time. It is argued that the difference between what isexpected to happen and what actually did happen is for the most part due to a missingvariable, namely technological change. This is an important caveat to therecommendations made based on these models.

Valuation bubbles and sequential bubbles

Price bubbles in an Arrow-Debreu valuation equilibrium in infinite-timeeconomy are a manifestation of lack of countable additivity of valuationof assets. In contrast, known examples of price bubbles in sequentialequilibrium in infinite time cannot be attributed to the lack of countableadditivity of valuation. In this paper we develop a theory of valuation ofassets in sequential markets (with no uncertainty) and study the nature ofprice bubbles in light of this theory. We consider an operator, calledpayoff pricing functional, that maps a sequence of payoffs to the minimumcost of an asset holding strategy that generates it. We show that thepayoff pricing functional is linear and countably additive on the set ofpositive payoffs if and only if there is no Ponzi scheme, and providedthat there is no restriction on long positions in the assets. In the knownexamples of equilibrium price bubbles in sequential markets valuation islinear and countably additive. The presence of a price bubble indicatesthat the asset's dividends can be purchased in sequential markers at acost lower than the asset's price. We also present examples of equilibriumprice bubbles in which valuation is nonlinear but not countably additive.

A generalization of Hull and White formula and applications to option pricing approximation

By means of Malliavin Calculus we see that the classical Hull and White formulafor option pricing can be extended to the case where the noise driving thevolatility process is correlated with the noise driving the stock prices. Thisextension will allow us to construct option pricing approximation formulas.Numerical examples are presented.

Minimax regret and strategic uncertainty

This paper introduces a new solution concept, a minimax regret equilibrium, which allows for the possibility that players are uncertain about the rationality and conjectures of their opponents. We provide several applications of our concept. In particular, we consider pricesetting environments and show that optimal pricing policy follows a non-degenerate distribution. The induced price dispersion is consistent with experimental and empirical observations (Baye and Morgan (2004)).

How much structure in empirical models?

This chapter highlights the problems that structural methods and SVAR approaches have when estimating DSGE models and examining their ability to capture important features of the data. We show that structural methods are subject to severe identification problems due, in large part, to the nature of DSGE models. The problems can be patched up in a number of ways but solved only if DSGEs are completely reparametrized or respecified. The potential misspecification of the structural relationships give Bayesian methods an hedge over classical ones in structural estimation. SVAR approaches may face invertibility problems but simple diagnostics can help to detect and remedy these problems. A pragmatic empirical approach ought to use the flexibility of SVARs against potential misspecificationof the structural relationships but must firmly tie SVARs to the class of DSGE models which could have have generated the data.

Measuring intangibles' productivity. Empirical evidence from Spanish firms

As companies and shareholders begin to note the potential repercussions of intangible assets uponbusiness results, the inability of the traditional financial statement model to reflect these new waysof creating business value has become evident. Companies have widely adopted newmanagement tools, covering in this way the inability of the traditional financial statement model toreflect these new ways of creating business value.However, there are few prior studies measuring on a quantifiable manner the level of productivityunexplained in the financial statements. In this study, we measure the effect of intangible assets onproductivity using data from Spanish firms selected randomly by size and sector over a ten-yearperiod, from 1995 to 2004. Through a sample of more than 10,000 Spanish firms we analyse towhat extent labour productivity can be explained by physical capital deepening, by quantifiedintangible capital deepening and by firm s economic efficiency (or total factor productivity PTF).Our results confirm the hypothesis that PTF weigh has increased during the period studied,especially on those firms that have experienced a significant raise in quantified intangible capital,evidencing that there are some important complementary effects between capital investment andintangible resources in the explanation of productivity growth. These results have significantdifferences considering economic sector and firm s dimension.

An assessment of empirical Bayes and composite estimators for small areas

We compare a set of empirical Bayes and composite estimators of the population means of the districts (small areas) of a country, and show that the natural modelling strategy of searching for a well fitting empirical Bayes model and using it for estimation of the area-level means can be inefficient.

The determinants of pricing in pharmaceuticals: Are U.S. prices really higher than those of Canada?

This paper studies price determination in pharmaceutical markets using data for 25 countries, six years and a comprehensive list of products from the MIDAS IMS database. We show that market power and the quality of the product has a significantly positive impact of prices. The nationality of the producer appears to have a small and often insignificant impact on prices, which suggests that countries which regulates prices have relatively little power to do it in a way that advances narrow national interest. We produce a theoretical explanation for this phenomenon based on the fact that low negotiated prices in a country would have a knock-on effect in other markets, and is thus strongly resisted by producers.Another key finding is that the U.S. has prices that are not significantly higher than those of countries with similar income levels. This, together with the former observation on the effect of the nationality of producers casts doubt on the ability of countries to pursue "free-riding" regulation.

Review of the literature on reference pricing

This paper reviews the literature on reference pricing (RP) in pharmaceutical markets. The RP strategy for cost containment of expenditure on drugs is analyzed as part of the procurement mechanism. We review the existing literature and the state-of-the-art regarding RP by focusing on its economic effects. In particular, we consider: (1) the institutional context and problem-related factors which appear to underline the need to implement an RP strategy; i.e., its nature, characteristics and the sort of health care problems commonly addressed; (2) how RP operates in practice; that is, how third party-payers (the insurers/buyers) have established the RP systems existing on the international scene (i.e., information methods, monitoring procedures and legislative provisions); (3)the range of effects resulting from particular RP strategies (including effects on choice of appropriate pharmaceuticals, insurer savings, total drug expenditures, prices of referenced and non-referenced products and dynamic efficiency; (4) the market failures which an RP policy is supposed to address and the main advantages and drawbacks which emerge from an analysis of its effects. Results suggest that RP systems achieve better their postulated goals (1) if cost inflation in pharmaceuticals is due to high prices rather than to the excess of prescription rates, (2) when the larger is the existing difference in prices among equivalent drugs, and (3) more important is the actual market for generics.

The minimax distortion redundancy in empirical quantizer design

We obtain minimax lower and upper bounds for the expected distortionredundancy of empirically designed vector quantizers. We show that the meansquared distortion of a vector quantizer designed from $n$ i.i.d. datapoints using any design algorithm is at least $\Omega (n^{-1/2})$ awayfrom the optimal distortion for some distribution on a bounded subset of${\cal R}^d$. Together with existing upper bounds this result shows thatthe minimax distortion redundancy for empirical quantizer design, as afunction of the size of the training data, is asymptotically on the orderof $n^{1/2}$. We also derive a new upper bound for the performance of theempirically optimal quantizer.

Ethics and creative accounting: Some empirical evidence on accounting for intangibles in Spain

Recent research shows that financial reports are losing relevance. Mainly thisis due to the growing strategic importance of intangible assets in theperformance of a company. A possible solution is to modify accounting standardsso that statements include more self-generated intangible assets, taking intoaccount with their inherent risk and difficulty of valuation. We surveyed loanofficers who were asked to assess the credit-worthiness of a hypotheticalcompany. The only information given was a simplified version of financialstatements. Half the group got statements where research and development costshad been capitalized. The other half got statements in which these costs hadbeen treated as an expense. The findings show that capitalization wassignificantly more likely to attract a positive response to a loan request. Thepaper raises the question of whether accounting for intangibles might providemanagers with one more creative accounting technique and, in consequence, itsethical implications.