Proceedings of the inaugural construction management and economics ���Past, Present and Future��� conference CME25, 16-18 July 2007, University of Reading, UK

This conference was an unusual and interesting event. Celebrating 25 years of Construction Management and Economics provides us with an opportunity to reflect on the research that has been reported over the years, to consider where we are now, and to think about the future of academic research in this area. Hence the sub-title of this conference: ���past, present and future���. Looking through these papers, some things are clear. First, the range of topics considered interesting has expanded hugely since the journal was first published. Second, the research methods are also more diverse. Third, the involvement of wider groups of stakeholder is evident. There is a danger that this might lead to dilution of the field. But my instinct has always been to argue against the notion that Construction Management and Economics represents a discipline, as such. Granted, there are plenty of university departments around the world that would justify the idea of a discipline. But the vast majority of academic departments who contribute to the life of this journal carry different names to this. Indeed, the range and breadth of methodological approaches to the research reported in Construction Management and Economics indicates that there are several different academic disciplines being brought to bear on the construction sector. Some papers are based on economics, some on psychology and others on operational research, sociology, law, statistics, information technology, and so on. This is why I maintain that construction management is not an academic discipline, but a field of study to which a range of academic disciplines are applied. This may be why it is so interesting to be involved in this journal. The problems to which the papers are applied develop and grow. But the broad topics of the earliest papers in the journal are still relevant today. What has changed a lot is our interpretation of the problems that confront the construction sector all over the world, and the methodological approaches to resolving them. There is a constant difficulty in dealing with topics as inherently practical as these. While the demands of the academic world are driven by the need for the rigorous application of sound methods, the demands of the practical world are quite different. It can be difficult to meet the needs of both sets of stakeholders at the same time. However, increasing numbers of postgraduate courses in our area result in larger numbers of practitioners with a deeper appreciation of what research is all about, and how to interpret and apply the lessons from research. It also seems that there are contributions coming not just from construction-related university departments, but also from departments with identifiable methodological traditions of their own. I like to think that our authors can publish in journals beyond the construction-related areas, to disseminate their theoretical insights into other disciplines, and to contribute to the strength of this journal by citing our articles in more mono-disciplinary journals. This would contribute to the future of the journal in a very strong and developmental way. The greatest danger we face is in excessive self-citation, i.e. referring only to sources within the CM&E literature or, worse, referring only to other articles in the same journal. The only way to ensure a strong and influential position for journals and university departments like ours is to be sure that our work is informing other academic disciplines. This is what I would see as the future, our logical next step. If, as a community of researchers, we are not producing papers that challenge and inform the fundamentals of research methods and analytical processes, then no matter how practically relevant our output is to the industry, it will remain derivative and secondary, based on the methodological insights of others. The balancing act between methodological rigour and practical relevance is a difficult one, but not, of course, a balance that has to be struck in every single paper.

Climate and more sustainable cities: climate information for improved planning and management of cities (producers/capabilities perspective)

In the last two decades substantial advances have been made in the understanding of the scientific basis of urban climates. These are reviewed here with attention to sustainability of cities, applications that use climate information, and scientific understanding in relation to measurements and modelling. Consideration is given from street (micro) scale to neighbourhood (local) to city and region (meso) scale. Those areas where improvements are needed in the next decade to ensure more sustainable cities are identified. High-priority recommendations are made in the following six strategic areas: observations, data, understanding, modelling, tools and education. These include the need for more operational urban measurement stations and networks; for an international data archive to aid translation of research findings into design tools, along with guidelines for different climate zones and land uses; to develop methods to analyse atmospheric data measured above complex urban surfaces; to improve short-range, high-resolution numerical prediction of weather, air quality and chemical dispersion through improved modelling of the biogeophysical features of the urban land surface; to improve education about urban meteorology; and to encourage communication across scientific disciplines at a range of spatial and temporal scales.

Flood Risk Management In Small Urban River Using A Sustainable Urban Drainage System: Wortley Beck, Leeds, Uk

In the UK, urban river basins are particularly vulnerable to flash floods due to short and intense rainfall. This paper presents potential flood resilience approaches for the highly urbanised Wortley Beck river basin, south west of the Leeds city centre. The reach of Wortley Beck is approximately 6km long with contributing catchment area of 30km2 that drain into the River Aire. Lower Wortley has experienced regular flooding over the last few years from a range of sources, including Wortley Beck and surface and ground water, that affects properties both upstream and downstream of Farnley Lake as well as Wortley Ring Road. This has serious implications for society, the environment and economy activity in the City of Leeds. The first stage of the study involves systematically incorporating Wortley Beck���s land scape features on an Arc-GIS platform to identify existing green features in the region. This process also enables the exploration of potential blue green features: green spaces, green roofs, water retention ponds and swales at appropriate locations and connect them with existing green corridors to maximize their productivity. The next stage is involved in developing a detailed 2D urban flood inundation model for the Wortley Beck region using the CityCat model. CityCat is capable to model the effects of permeable/impermeable ground surfaces and buildings/roofs to generate flood depth and velocity maps at 1m caused by design storm events. The final stage of the study is involved in simulation of range of rainfall and flood event scenarios through CityCat model with different blue green features. Installation of other hard engineering individual property protection measures through water butts and flood walls are also incorporated in the CityCat model. This enables an integrated sustainable flood resilience strategy for this region.

Reducing The Risk Of Floods In Urban Areas With Combined Inland-River System

With the change of the water environment in accordance with climate change, the loss of lives and properties has increased due to urban flood. Although the importance of urban floods has been highlighted quickly, the construction of advancement technology of an urban drainage system combined with inland-river water and its relevant research has not been emphasized in Korea. In addition, without operation in consideration of combined inland-river water, it is difficult to prevent urban flooding effectively. This study, therefore, develops the uncertainty quantification technology of the risk-based water level and the assessment technology of a flood-risk region through a flooding analysis of the combination of inland-river. The study is also conducted to develop forecast technology of change in the water level of an urban region through the construction of very short-term/short-term flood forecast systems. This study is expected to be able to build an urban flood forecast system which makes it possible to support decision making for systematic disaster prevention which can cope actively with climate change.

Newly Automated System For Integrated Assessment Of The Conditions Of Underwater Gas Pipelines

An underwater gas pipeline is the portion of the pipeline that crosses a river beneath its bottom. Underwater gas pipelines are subject to increasing dangers as time goes by. An accident at an underwater gas pipeline can lead to technological and environmental disaster on the scale of an entire region. Therefore, timely troubleshooting of all underwater gas pipelines in order to prevent any potential accidents will remain a pressing task for the industry. The most important aspect of resolving this challenge is the quality of the automated system in question. Now the industry doesn't have any automated system that fully meets the needs of the experts working in the field maintaining underwater gas pipelines. Principle Aim of this Research: This work aims to develop a new system of automated monitoring which would simplify the process of evaluating the technical condition and decision making on planning and preventive maintenance and repair work on the underwater gas pipeline. Objectives: Creation a shared model for a new, automated system via IDEF3; Development of a new database system which would store all information about underwater gas pipelines; Development a new application that works with database servers, and provides an explanation of the results obtained from the server; Calculation of the values MTBF for specified pipelines based on quantitative data obtained from tests of this system. Conclusion: The new, automated system PodvodGazExpert has been developed for timely and qualitative determination of the physical conditions of underwater gas pipeline; The basis of the mathematical analysis of this new, automated system uses principal component analysis method; The process of determining the physical condition of an underwater gas pipeline with this new, automated system increases the MTBF by a factor of 8.18 above the existing system used today in the industry.

Reactive power planning under conditional-value-at-risk assessment using chance-constrained optimisation

Funda����o de Amparo �� Pesquisa do Estado de S��o Paulo (FAPESP)

The use of remote sensing imagery for monitoring recovery in the aftermath of a natural disaster: the Hurricane Katrina Case

Although Recovery is often defined as the less studied and documented phase of the Emergency Management Cycle, a wide literature is available for describing characteristics and sub-phases of this process. Previous works do not allow to gain an overall perspective because of a lack of systematic consistent monitoring of recovery utilizing advanced technologies such as remote sensing and GIS technologies. Taking into consideration the key role of Remote Sensing in Response and Damage Assessment, this thesis is aimed to verify the appropriateness of such advanced monitoring techniques to detect recovery advancements over time, with close attention to the main characteristics of the study event: Hurricane Katrina storm surge. Based on multi-source, multi-sensor and multi-temporal data, the post-Katrina recovery was analysed using both a qualitative and a quantitative approach. The first phase was dedicated to the investigation of the relation between urban types, damage and recovery state, referring to geographical and technological parameters. Damage and recovery scales were proposed to review critical observations on remarkable surge- induced effects on various typologies of structures, analyzed at a per-building level. This wide-ranging investigation allowed a new understanding of the distinctive features of the recovery process. A quantitative analysis was employed to develop methodological procedures suited to recognize and monitor distribution, timing and characteristics of recovery activities in the study area. Promising results, gained by applying supervised classification algorithms to detect localization and distribution of blue tarp, have proved that this methodology may help the analyst in the detection and monitoring of recovery activities in areas that have been affected by medium damage. The study found that Mahalanobis Distance was the classifier which provided the most accurate results, in localising blue roofs with 93.7% of blue roof classified correctly and a producer accuracy of 70%. It was seen to be the classifier least sensitive to spectral signature alteration. The application of the dissimilarity textural classification to satellite imagery has demonstrated the suitability of this technique for the detection of debris distribution and for the monitoring of demolition and reconstruction activities in the study area. Linking these geographically extensive techniques with expert per-building interpretation of advanced-technology ground surveys provides a multi-faceted view of the physical recovery process. Remote sensing and GIS technologies combined to advanced ground survey approach provides extremely valuable capability in Recovery activities monitoring and may constitute a technical basis to lead aid organization and local government in the Recovery management.

The use of satellite remote sensing for flood risk management

Over the last decades the impact of natural disasters to the global environment is becoming more and more severe. The number of disasters has dramatically increased, as well as the cost to the global economy and the number of people affected. Among the natural disaster, flood catastrophes are considered to be the most costly, devastating, broad extent and frequent, because of the tremendous fatalities, injuries, property damage, economic and social disruption they cause to the humankind. In the last thirty years, the World has suffered from severe flooding and the huge impact of floods has caused hundreds of thousands of deaths, destruction of infrastructures, disruption of economic activity and the loss of property for worth billions of dollars. In this context, satellite remote sensing, along with Geographic Information Systems (GIS), has become a key tool in flood risk management analysis. Remote sensing for supporting various aspects of flood risk management was investigated in the present thesis. In particular, the research focused on the use of satellite images for flood mapping and monitoring, damage assessment and risk assessment. The contribution of satellite remote sensing for the delineation of flood prone zones, the identification of damaged areas and the development of hazard maps was explored referring to selected cases of study.

Canadian Cardiovascular Society 2009 Consensus Conference on the management of adults with congenital heart disease: complex congenital cardiac lesions

With advances in pediatric cardiology and cardiac surgery, the population of adults with congenital heart disease (CHD) has increased. In the current era, there are more adults with CHD than children. This population has many unique issues and needs. They have distinctive forms of heart failure and their cardiac disease can be associated with pulmonary hypertension, thromboemboli, complex arrhythmias and sudden death. Medical aspects that need to be considered relate to the long-term and multisystemic effects of single ventricle physiology, cyanosis, systemic right ventricles, complex intracardiac baffles and failing subpulmonary right ventricles. Since the 2001 Canadian Cardiovascular Society Consensus Conference report on the management of adults with CHD, there have been significant advances in the field of adult CHD. Therefore, new clinical guidelines have been written by Canadian adult CHD physicians in collaboration with an international panel of experts in the field. Part III of the guidelines includes recommendations for the care of patients with complete transposition of the great arteries, congenitally corrected transposition of the great arteries, Fontan operations and single ventricles, Eisenmenger's syndrome, and cyanotic heart disease. Topics addressed include genetics, clinical outcomes, recommended diagnostic workup, surgical and interventional options, treatment of arrhythmias, assessment of pregnancy risk and follow-up requirements. The complete document consists of four manuscripts, which are published online in the present issue of The Canadian Journal of Cardiology. The complete document and references can also be found at www.ccs.ca or www.cachnet.org.

Price risk management in the copper market using commodity derivatives and options strategies

Metals price risk management is a key issue related to financial risk in metal markets because of uncertainty of commodity price fluctuation, exchange rate, interest rate changes and huge price risk either to metals��� producers or consumers. Thus, it has been taken into account by all participants in metal markets including metals��� producers, consumers, merchants, banks, investment funds, speculators, traders and so on. Managing price risk provides stable income for both metals��� producers and consumers, so it increases the chance that a firm will invest in attractive projects. The purpose of this research is to evaluate risk management strategies in the copper market. The main tools and strategies of price risk management are hedging and other derivatives such as futures contracts, swaps and options contracts. Hedging is a transaction designed to reduce or eliminate price risk. Derivatives are financial instruments, whose returns are derived from other financial instruments and they are commonly used for managing financial risks. Although derivatives have been around in some form for centuries, their growth has accelerated rapidly during the last 20 years. Nowadays, they are widely used by financial institutions, corporations, professional investors, and individuals. This project is focused on the over-the-counter (OTC) market and its products such as exotic options, particularly Asian options. The first part of the project is a description of basic derivatives and risk management strategies. In addition, this part discusses basic concepts of spot and futures (forward) markets, benefits and costs of risk management and risks and rewards of positions in the derivative markets. The second part considers valuations of commodity derivatives. In this part, the options pricing model DerivaGem is applied to Asian call and put options on London Metal Exchange (LME) copper because it is important to understand how Asian options are valued and to compare theoretical values of the options with their market observed values. Predicting future trends of copper prices is important and would be essential to manage market price risk successfully. Therefore, the third part is a discussion about econometric commodity models. Based on this literature review, the fourth part of the project reports the construction and testing of an econometric model designed to forecast the monthly average price of copper on the LME. More specifically, this part aims at showing how LME copper prices can be explained by means of a simultaneous equation structural model (two-stage least squares regression) connecting supply and demand variables. A simultaneous econometric model for the copper industry is built: {���(Q_t^D=e^((-5.0485))���P_((t-1))^((-0.1868) )������GDP���_t^((1.7151) )���e^((0.0158)������IP���_t ) @Q_t^S=e^((-3.0785))���P_((t-1))^((0.5960))���T_t^((0.1408))���P_(OIL(t))^((-0.1559))������USDI���_t^((1.2432))������LIBOR���_((t-6))^((-0.0561))@Q_t^D=Q_t^S )��� P_((t-1))^CU=e^((-2.5165))������GDP���_t^((2.1910))���e^((0.0202)������IP���_t )���T_t^((-0.1799))���P_(OIL(t))^((0.1991))������USDI���_t^((-1.5881))������LIBOR���_((t-6))^((0.0717) Where, Q_t^D and Q_t^Sare world demand for and supply of copper at time t respectively. P(t-1) is the lagged price of copper, which is the focus of the analysis in this part. GDPt is world gross domestic product at time t, which represents aggregate economic activity. In addition, industrial production should be considered here, so the global industrial production growth that is noted as IPt is included in the model. Tt is the time variable, which is a useful proxy for technological change. A proxy variable for the cost of energy in producing copper is the price of oil at time t, which is noted as POIL(t ) . USDIt is the U.S. dollar index variable at time t, which is an important variable for explaining the copper supply and copper prices. At last, LIBOR(t-6) is the 6-month lagged 1-year London Inter bank offering rate of interest. Although, the model can be applicable for different base metals' industries, the omitted exogenous variables such as the price of substitute or a combined variable related to the price of substitutes have not been considered in this study. Based on this econometric model and using a Monte-Carlo simulation analysis, the probabilities that the monthly average copper prices in 2006 and 2007 will be greater than specific strike price of an option are defined. The final part evaluates risk management strategies including options strategies, metal swaps and simple options in relation to the simulation results. The basic options strategies such as bull spreads, bear spreads and butterfly spreads, which are created by using both call and put options in 2006 and 2007 are evaluated. Consequently, each risk management strategy in 2006 and 2007 is analyzed based on the day of data and the price prediction model. As a result, applications stemming from this project include valuing Asian options, developing a copper price prediction model, forecasting and planning, and decision making for price risk management in the copper market.

Assessing and mapping LD and SLM to directly support the planning and scaling up of SLM interventions to combat desertification

Global investment in Sustainable Land Management (SLM) has been substantial, but knowledge gaps remain. Overviews of where land degradation (LD) is taking place and how land users are addressing the problem using SLM are still lacking for most individual countries and regions. Relevant maps focus more on LD than SLM, and they have been compiled using different methods. This makes it impossible to compare the benefits of SLM interventions and prevents informed decision-making on how best to invest in land. To fill this knowledge gap, a standardised mapping method has been collaboratively developed by the World Overview of Conservation Approaches and Technologies (WOCAT), FAO���s Land Degradation Assessment in Drylands (LADA) project, and the EU���s Mitigating Desertification and Remediating Degraded Land (DESIRE) project. The method generates information on the distribution and characteristics of LD and SLM activities and can be applied at the village, national, or regional level. It is based on participatory expert assessment, documents, and surveys. These data sources are spatially displayed across a land-use systems base map. By enabling mapping of the DPSIR framework (Driving Forces-Pressures-State-Impacts-Responses) for degradation and conservation, the method provides key information for decision-making. It may also be used to monitor LD and conservation following project implementation. This contribution explains the mapping method, highlighting findings made at different levels (national and local) in South Africa and the Mediterranean region. Keywords: Mapping, Decision Support, Land Degradation, Sustainable Land Management, Ecosystem Services, Participatory Expert Assessment

Risk-conscious Reconstruction in Pakistan-administered Kashmir. A Case Study of the Chakhama Valley

The Chakhama Valley, a remote area in Pakistan-administered Kashmir, was badly damaged by the 7.6-magnitude earthquake that struck India and Pakistan on 8 October 2005. More than 5% of the population lost their lives, and about 90% of the existing housing was irreparably damaged or completely destroyed. In early 2006, the Aga Khan Development Network (AKDN) initiated a multisector, community-driven reconstruction program in the Chakhama Valley on the premise that the scale of the disaster required a response that would address all aspects of people's lives. One important aspect covered the promotion of disaster risk management for sustainable recovery in a safe environment. Accordingly, prevailing hazards (rockfalls, landslides, and debris flow, in addition to earthquake hazards) and existing risks were thoroughly assessed, and the information was incorporated into the main planning processes. Hazard maps, detailed site investigations, and proposals for precautionary measures assisted engineers in supporting the reconstruction of private homes in safe locations to render investments disaster resilient. The information was also used for community-based land use decisions and disaster mitigation and preparedness. The work revealed three main problems: (1) thorough assessment of hazards and incorporation of this assessment into planning processes is time consuming and often little understood by the population directly affected, but it pays off in the long run; (2) relocating people out of dangerous places is a highly sensitive issue that requires the support of clear and forceful government policies; and (3) the involvement of local communities is essential for the success of mitigation and preparedness.