Three essays on game theory and bargaining

A PhD Dissertation, presented as part of the requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy from the NOVA - School of Business and Economics

Avatars and the «Imitation Game» – can machines smile?

Considering Alan Turing’s challenge in «Computing Machinery and Intelligence» (1950) – can machines play the «imitation game»? – it is proposed that the requirements of the Turing test are already implicitly being used for checking the credibility of virtual characters and avatars. Like characters, Avatars aim to visually express emotions (the exterior signs of the existence of feeling) and its creators have to resort to emotion codes. Traditional arts have profusely contributed for this field and, together with the science of anatomy, shaped the grounds for current Facial Action Coding System (FACS) and their databases. However, FACS researchers have to improve their «instruction tables» so that the machines will be able, in a near future, to be programmed to carry out the operation of recognizing human expressions (face and body) and classify them adequately. For the moment, the reproductions have to resort to the copy of real life expressions, and the presente smile of avatars comes from mirroring their human users.

Chagas disease as a mechanistic model for testing a novel hypothesis

The association between depression and cardiovascular disease is well documented. Nevertheless, the process through which they are linked remains unknown, as does the direction of this relationship. Studies have suggested both that depression is a risk factor for heart disease and that heart disease is a risk factor for depression. A number of studies have established that a relationship exists between depression and inflammation, with alterations in the levels of inflammatory markers (IL-1, IL-6, TNF-alpha and others). Depressive symptoms have also been identified in many diseases characterized by inflammatory processes e.g. rheumatoid arthritis, bronchial asthma, diabetes, tuberculosis and cardiovascular diseases. In this brief viewpoint, we explain and propose how to use Chagas disease, a disorder characterized by inflammatory processes and leading to cardiovascular and autonomic problems, as a model for studying the directionality of the relationship between heart disease and depression.

Game wizard

Hoje em dia, há um aumento evidente dos produtos ou soluções sob medida, com o objectivo de melhor se adaptarem às necessidades dos perfis de clientes. Num outro contexto, existe um largo crescimento da presença da computação informática nas salas de aulas, de maneira a auxiliar o professor a cativar e motivar os alunos, através de jogos educativos. Contudo, nem todos os docentes têm conhecimentos informáticos avançados, então não têm forma de perso-nalizar jogos, o que beneficiaria as crianças com soluções adaptadas às suas necessidades. Com isto, foi idealizado um sistema, que assenta sobre uma framework de criação de jogos, e que possibilite a um utilizador com menos habilidades informáticas a possibilidade de criar um jogo. Apesar de existirem diversos jogos desse tipo, seria vantajoso um professor poder criar um jogo, personalizando-o de acordo com as necessidades do aluno e com as competências que se desejam desenvolver. Este sistema consiste numa interface em que o utilizador segue uma série de passos definidos, do qual resulta um ficheiro com todas as características de jo-go, que será depois importado para uma framework, permitindo assim a criação de diferentes jogos, desde que se enquadrem na mesma mecânica.

Spiteful Strategies. The ontogeny and the practice of spite in human interaction: an experimental game theory approach and empirical applications

As estratégias de malevolência implicam que um indivíduo pague um custo para infligir um custo superior a um oponente. Como um dos comportamentos fundamentais da sociobiologia, a malevolência tem recebido menos atenção que os seus pares o egoísmo e a cooperação. Contudo, foi estabelecido que a malevolência é uma estratégia viável em populações pequenas quando usada contra indivíduos negativamente geneticamente relacionados pois este comportamento pode i) ser eliminado naturalmente, ou ii) manter-se em equilíbrio com estratégias cooperativas devido à disponibilidade da parte de indivíduos malevolentes de pagar um custo para punir. Esta tese propõe compreender se a propensão para a malevolência nos humanos é inerente ou se esta se desenvolve com a idade. Para esse efeito, considerei duas experiências de teoria de jogos em crianças em ambiente escolar com idades entre os 6 e os 22 anos. A primeira, um jogo 2x2 foi testada com duas variantes: 1) um prémio foi atribuído a ambos os jogadores, proporcionalmente aos pontos acumulados; 2), um prémio foi atribuído ao jogador com mais pontos. O jogo foi desenhado com o intuito de causar o seguinte dilema a cada jogador: i) maximizar o seu ganho e arriscar ter menos pontos que o adversário; ou ii) decidir não maximizar o seu ganho, garantindo que este não era inferior ao do seu adversário. A segunda experiência consistia num jogo do ditador com duas opções: uma escolha egoísta/altruísta (A), onde o ditador recebia mais ganho, mas o seu recipiente recebia mais que ele e uma escolha malevolente (B) que oferecia menos ganhos ao ditador que a A mas mais ganhos que o recipiente. O dilema era que se as crianças se comportassem de maneira egoísta, obtinham mais ganho para si, ao mesmo tempo que aumentavam o ganho do seu colega. Se fossem malevolentes, então prefeririam ter mais ganho que o seu colega ao mesmo tempo que tinham menos para eles próprios. As experiências foram efetuadas em escolas de duas áreas distintas de Portugal (continente e Açores) para perceber se as preferências malevolentes aumentavam ou diminuíam com a idade. Os resultados na primeira experiência sugerem que (1) os alunos compreenderam a primeira variante como um jogo de coordenação e comportaram-se como maximizadores, copiando as jogadas anteriores dos seus adversários; (2) que os alunos repetentes se comportaram preferencialmente como malevolentes, mais frequentemente que como maximizadores, com especial ênfase para os alunos de 14 anos; (3) maioria dos alunos comportou-se reciprocamente desde os 12 até aos 16 anos de idade, após os quais começaram a desenvolver uma maior tolerância às escolhas dos seus parceiros. Os resultados da segunda experiência sugerem que (1) as estratégias egoístas eram prevalentes até aos 6 anos de idade, (2) as tendências altruístas emergiram até aos 8 anos de idade e (3) as estratégias de malevolência começaram a emergir a partir dos 8 anos de idade. Estes resultados complementam a literatura relativamente escassa sobre malevolência e sugerem que este comportamento está intimamente ligado a preferências de consideração sobre os outros, o paroquialismo e os estágios de desenvolvimento das crianças.************************************************************Spite is defined as an act that causes loss of payoff to an opponent at a cost to the actor. As one of the four fundamental behaviours in sociobiology, it has received far less attention than its counterparts selfishness and cooperation. It has however been established as a viable strategy in small populations when used against negatively related individuals. Because of this, spite can either i) disappear or ii) remain at equilibrium with cooperative strategies due to the willingness of spiteful individuals to pay a cost in order to punish. This thesis sets out to understand whether propensity for spiteful behaviour is inherent or if it develops with age. For that effect, two game-theoretical experiments were performed with schoolboys and schoolgirls aged 6 to 22. The first, a 2 x 2 game, was tested in two variants: 1) a prize was awarded to both players, proportional to accumulated points; 2), a prize was given to the player with most points. Each player faced the following dilemma: i) to maximise pay-off risking a lower pay-off than the opponent; or ii) not to maximise pay-off in order to cut down the opponent below their own. The second game was a dictator experiment with two choices, (A) a selfish/altruistic choice affording more payoff to the donor than B, but more to the recipient than to the donor, and (B) a spiteful choice that afforded less payoff to the donor than A, but even lower payoff to the recipient. The dilemma here was that if subjects behaved selfishly, they obtained more payoff for themselves, while at the same time increasing their opponent payoff. If they were spiteful, they would rather have more payoff than their colleague, at the cost of less for themselves. Experiments were run in schools in two different areas in Portugal (mainland and Azores) to understand whether spiteful preferences varied with age. Results in the first experiment suggested that (1) students understood the first variant as a coordination game and engaged in maximising behaviour by copying their opponent’s plays; (2) repeating students preferentially engaged in spiteful behaviour more often than maximising behaviour, with special emphasis on 14 year-olds; (3) most students engaged in reciprocal behaviour from ages 12 to 16, as they began developing higher tolerance for their opponent choices. Results for the second experiment suggested that (1) selfish strategies were prevalent until the age of 6, (2) altruistic tendencies emerged since then, and (3) spiteful strategies began being chosen more often by 8 year-olds. These results add to the relatively scarce body of literature on spite and suggest that this type of behaviour is closely tied with other-regarding preferences, parochialism and the children’s stages of development.

Analysis, testing and development of safe cleaning methods of rusted stone material

Three different treatments were applied on several specimens of dolomitic and calcitic marble, properly stained with rust to mimic real situations (the stone specimens were exposed to the natural environment for about six months in contact with rusted iron). Thirty six marble specimens, eighteen calcitic and eighteen dolomitic, were characterized before and after treatment and monitored throughout the cleaning tests. The specimens were characterized by SEM-EDS (Scanning Electron Microscopy coupled with Energy Dispersion System), XRD (XRay Diffraction), XRF (X-Ray Fluorescence), FTIR (Fourier Transform Infrared Spectroscopy) and color measurements. It was also made a microscopic and macroscopic analysis of the stone surface along with the tests of short and long term capillary absorption. A series of test trials were conducted in order to understand which concentrations and contact times best suits to this purpose, to confirm what had been written to date in the literature. We sought to develop new methods of treatment application, skipping the usual methods of applying chemical treatments on stone substrates, with the use of cellulose poultice, resorting to the agar, a gel already used in many other areas, being something new in this area, which possesses great applicability in the field of conservation of stone materials. After the application of the best methodology for cleaning, specimens were characterized again in order to understand which treatment was more effective and less harmful, both for the operator and the stone material. Very briefly conclusions were that for a very intense and deep penetration into the stone, a solution of 3.5% of SDT buffered with ammonium carbonate to pH around 7 applied with agar support would be indicated. For rust stains in its initial state, the use of Ammonium citrate at a concentration of 5% buffered with ammonium to pH 7 could be applied more than once until satisfactory results appear.

Evolution of reputation in networks: A mean field game approach

This work models the competitive behaviour of individuals who maximize their own utility managing their network of connections with other individuals. Utility is taken as a synonym of reputation in this model. Each agent has to decide between two variables: the quality of connections and the number of connections. Hence, the reputation of an individual is a function of the number and the quality of connections within the network. On the other hand, individuals incur in a cost when they improve their network of contacts. The initial value of the quality and number of connections of each individual is distributed according to an initial (given) distribution. The competition occurs over continuous time and among a continuum of agents. A mean field game approach is adopted to solve the model, leading to an optimal trajectory for the number and quality of connections for each individual.

Effects of an exercise program on the functional capacity of patients with chronic Chagas' heart disease, evaluated by cardiopulmonary testing

INTRODUCTION: Despite all efforts to restrict its transmission, Chagas' disease remains a severe public health problem in Latin America, affecting 8-12 million individuals. Chronic Chagas' heart disease, the chief factor in the high mortality rate associated with the illness, affects more than half a million Brazilians. Its evolution may result in severe heart failure associated with loss of functional capacity and quality of life, with important social and medical/labor consequences. Many studies have shown the beneficial effect of regular exercise on cardiac patients, but few of them have focused on chronic Chagas' heart disease. METHODS: This study evaluated the effects of an exercise program on the functional capacity of patients with chronic Chagas' disease who were treated in outpatient clinics at the Evandro Chagas Institute of Clinical Research and the National Institute of Cardiology, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. The exercises were performed 3 times a week for 1 h (30 min of aerobic activity and 30 min of resistance exercises and extension) over 6 months in 2010. Functional capacity was evaluated by comparing the direct measurement of the O2 uptake volume (VO2) obtained by a cardiopulmonary exercise test before and after the program (p < 0.05). RESULTS: Eighteen patients (13 females) were followed, with minimum and maximum ages of 30 and 72 years, respectively. We observed an average increase of VO2peak > 10% (p = 0.01949). CONCLUSIONS: The results suggest a statistically significant improvement in functional capacity with regular exercise of the right intensity.

Empirically testing the dimensions of consumer trust in e-commerce

In the fields of marketing and general management, many are the contributions of literature relating trust and e‐commerce. Trust is perceived as an issue that concerns the consumers’ intention to purchase. As so, in this research, a path model is empirically tested in order to develop solutions for Internet vendors on how to deal with consumers and increase their trust. The path model measures how the dimensions of trust, named as competence, integrity and benevolence positively influence the overall trust of the consumers and at the same time how the sources of trust – consumer characteristics, firm characteristics, website infrastructure and interactions influence those dimensions. The data used to test the model was collected in Portugal, through 365 valid cases. Findings revealed that consumers, which have high level of overall trust, are more likely to intent to purchase online.

Almirante: Evaluating the board game: Board game, startup, discounted cash flow, venture capital method, real options

This thesis evaluates a start-up company (Jogos Almirante Lda) whose single asset is a board game named Almirante. It aims to conclude whether it makes sense to create a company or just earn copyrights. The thesis analyzes the board game’s market, as part of the general toy’s market, from which some data exists: European countries as well as the USA. In this work it is analyzed the several ways to finance a start-up company and then present an overview of the valuation of the Jogos Almirante based on three different methods: Discounted Cash Flow, Venture Capital Method and Real Options.

Correlation between microdilution, Etest, and disk diffusion methods for antifungal susceptibility testing of fluconazole against Candida sp. blood isolates

INTRODUCTION: Antifungal susceptibility testing assists in finding the appropriate treatment for fungal infections, which are increasingly common. However, such testing is not very widespread. There are several existing methods, and the correlation between such methods was evaluated in this study. METHODS: The susceptibility to fluconazole of 35 strains of Candida sp. isolated from blood cultures was evaluated by the following methods: microdilution, Etest, and disk diffusion. RESULTS: The correlation between the methods was around 90%. CONCLUSIONS: The disk diffusion test exhibited a good correlation and can be used in laboratory routines to detect strains of Candida sp. that are resistant to fluconazole.

“The impact of online ratings on video game sales”

Online third-party reviews have been grown over the last decade and they now play an important role as a tool for helping customers evaluate products and services that in many cases offer more than tangible features. This study intends to quantify the impact online ratings have over video game sales by conducting a linear regression analysis on 300 titles for the previous console generation (PlayStation® 3 and Xbox® 360) using a data from the video game industry to understand the existing influence on this particular market. The findings showed that these variables have a weak linear relationship thus suggesting that quality of a title explains little the commercial success of a video game and instead this should cover a wider range of factors. Afterwards, we compare results to previous ones and discuss the managerial implications for upcoming gaming generations.

External quality assessment in the voluntary counseling and testing centers in the Brazilian Amazon using dried tube specimens: results of an effectiveness evaluation

INTRODUCTION : In 2011, the Brazilian Ministry of Health rolled out a program for the external quality assessment of rapid human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) tests using the dried tube specimen (DTS) method (EQA-RT/DTS-HIV). Our objective was to evaluate the implementation of this program at 71 voluntary counseling and testing centers (VCTCs) in the Brazilian Legal Amazonian area one year after its introduction. METHODS : Quantitative and qualitative study that analyzed secondary data and interviews with healthcare workers (HCWs) (n=39) and VCTC coordinators (n=32) were performed. The assessment used 18 key indicators to evaluate the three dimensions of the program's logical framework: structure, process, and result. Each indicator was scored from 1-4, and the aggregate results corresponding to the dimensions were expressed as proportions. The results were compared to the perceptions of the HCWs and coordinators regarding the EQA-RT/DTS-HIV program. RESULTS: The aggregate scores for the three dimensions of structure, process, and result were 91.7%, 78.6%, and 95%, respectively. The lowest score in each dimension corresponded to a different indicator: access to Quali-TR online system 39% (structure), registration in Quali-TR online system 38.7% (process), and VCTC completed the full process in the program's first round 63.4% (result). Approximately 36% of the HCWs and 52% of the coordinators reported enhanced trust in the program for its rapid HIV testing performance. CONCLUSIONS: All three program dimensions exhibited satisfactory results (>75%). Nevertheless, the study findings highlight the need to improve certain program components. Additionally, long-term follow-ups is needed to provide a more thorough picture of the process for external quality assessment.

Building 3D City Models: Testing and Comparing Laser Scanning and Low-Cost UAV Data Using FOSS Technologies

Contém resumo

Desenvolvimento de um serious game para a aprendizagem da leitura

A introdução de videojogos como ferramenta auxiliar do processo de educação tem vindo a crescer lado a lado com a evolução tecnológica. O aumento da capacidade dos processadores e das placas gráficas permitiram um aumento na complexidade dos videojogos e, por consequência, aumentaram as experiências fornecidas pelos mesmos. Sob o prisma da educação, o uso de um videojogo não foi a primeira ferramenta utilizada. O ensino por correspondência foi o primeiro auxílio ao método de ensino, iniciando assim o primeiro conceito de e-learning. Este permite enriquecer quem procura mais conhecimento, quem não consegue ter acesso ao mesmo ou quem tem dificuldades no ensino tradicional. A dificuldade presente em crianças com problemas do neurodesenvolvimento na aprendizagem da língua portuguesa é um problema na sociedade actual e para o combater são usados vários métodos manuais, sem recurso a tecnologia, passando normalmente por exercícios manuscritos e de observação. Desta forma, as pessoas que acompanham as crianças são obriga-das a estar presentes para recolher dados, em vez de se concentrarem nas outras actividades educativas. Este facto resulta numa possível falta de interesse por parte da criança no exercício apresentado, implicando uma perda de produtividade. A introdução de tecnologias ao serviço de causas sociais é crucial, pois permite um melhor acompanhamento das crianças, auxiliando tanto as pessoas que precisam do acompanhamento como aquelas que as acompanham. Por exemplo, um sistema automático que apresente os exercícios manuscritos num ecrã e, ao mesmo tempo, guarde os dados referentes ao seu uso seria útil para as pessoas que se encarregam de ajudar as crianças na aprendizagem da Língua Portuguesa. Esta dissertação insere-se num projecto desenvolvido pelo DIFERENÇAS – Centro de Desenvolvimento Infantil, denominado por “No Reino dos Fonemas”. Este projecto baseia-se em apresentar a crianças diversas imagens com objectivos diferentes de forma a cobrir as cinco vogais e todas as consoantes, no âmbito da aprendizagem da Língua Portuguesa. Neste contexto, as crianças podem-se interessar por um videojogo e aprender ao mesmo tempo, enquanto as pessoas que as acompanham, através dos dados do videojogo, podem focar-se mais nas dificuldades apresentadas por cada criança. Desta forma, é possível uma melhor organização dos dados de cada criança e, por conseguinte, um melhor acompanhamento das suas dificuldades.